Indians option Danny Salazar to Class AAA Columbus
March 27, 2015Jimmy Haslam puts Knoxville home on the market
March 27, 2015Four weeks ago now, WFNY introduced the Cleveland Sports Championship Watch, a recurring post to update the Northeast Ohioan masses of when their long and agonizing wait for a title will come to an end. WFNY will track the Title Ticker throughout the year, gleaning every insight and nugget of valuable information that can be gleaned from such patently unreliable information. The projections are based on the odds produced by Vegas and the betting public. It is an inexact science — but it is a science nonetheless. One less futile than economics at that. The last update was March 13, and, like flossing, two weeks seems like a reasonable break. Here’s your Cleveland Sports Championship Watch for March 27, 2015, starting with the Title Ticker.1
Nothing drastic to report since the last report, but the market response (or lack thereof) to what WFNY has covered over the last two weeks is remarkable despite limited movement.
No news is good news for the Indians. There’s actually been plenty of news out of Goodyear, which WFNY is following closely, but none worth shifting the Indians’ title odds according to Vegas. Sports Illustrated would disagree, though.
The Browns saw their title odds decrease without even doing anything — inaction alone was all it took for Vegas to shift their odds from 75:1 to 100:1. That looks worse than it actually is, though they dipped from having just over a one percent to chance to having less than a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. To what to attribute this drop? Take your pick. It may have been the perception that the Browns squandered free agency (ESPN Insider Mike Sando gave their moves a “D” grade, the worst in the NFL), invaluable center Alex Mack’s “cautious” rehab plan, or the belief that karma won’t favor “rule breakers” facing “severe” penalties for untimely sexting, err, I mean texting during games. I guess the betting public isn’t a big fan of Dwayne Bowe.
It could be worse (though barely), as the Washington Redskins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Tennessee Titans all have a lower probability of winning the Super Bowl.2 The Browns are nearly three times as likely to win the Super Bowl as the Jaguars and Titans, and the Browns were only in unfounded rumors to be traded for one of those teams this week.
The character in the title scene most worth watching remains to be the Cavaliers. The Cavs saw a minor boost in title odds since we last checked in — and they had just survived a classic in San Antonio due to a legendary performance from one Mr. Irving. I expected a sizable jump after the Cavs dominated the second seed in the Western Conference on Wednesday night, maiming the Memphis Grizzlies 111-89. But the Cavs’ title probability didn’t budge after the victory.
The weekly variations may just be market noise at this point — what matters is that the Cavs remain clear favorites. The Golden State Warriors had their odds move from 4:1 to 3:1, a 4.5 percent improvement, but they still remain 8.5 percent less likely to win the Finals than the Cavs; even though they could win 69 games (which would be tied for the second most all time.3
On Thursday, I previewed the Cavaliers’ potential first round playoff foes. Though I didn’t consult the future odds, Vegas is mostly in agreement with my assessment. For odds to win the NBA Finals, the prospective opponents’ probabilities belong to, in descending order, the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Boston Celtics, the Charlotte Hornets, and the Brooklyn Nets. The Heat have the best championship odds at an insanely low 150:1, while the Brooklyn Nets have an unfathomable 1000:1 chance to win the NBA title. To put that in perspective, the Browns have a better chance of winning a championship next season than the Miami Heat do this season.
The Eastern Conference odds remain shockingly skewed in favor of the Cavs. The market has the Cavs odds of winning the Eastern Conference at -200,4 which translates to about a 60 percent chance of winning the conference. That’s nearly THREE times more likely than the Atlanta Hawks’ 22.5 percent chance of winning the conference, and the Cavs are EIGHT games behind the Hawks for the top seed in the East. Chicago lags well behind Atlanta, but the prospect of a Cavs-Bulls series is scary to Cavs fans.
The most likely Finals matchup remains Cavs-Warriors, with a 20.8 probability of happening. That would be a dream matchup for Adam Silver, the NBA, and fans of good, star-studded basketball. All in all, there’s a 34.0 percent chance Clevelanders won’t be waiting for next year, and that’s better than bad.
- Odds provided courtesy of Sportsbook. Waiting for Next Year does not condone blah blah blah don’t gamble on sports, kids. [↩]
- The Oakland Raiders, like the Browns, have a 100:1 odds to win the Super Bowl. [↩]
- Again, all of these should be followed by the disclaimer “according to Vegas and the semi-legal betting public.” [↩]
- Meaning that a bettor would have to wager $200 to win $100, should their bet prove successful. [↩]
1 Comment
Browns was likely more like “Browns only 100:1 against? That’s way too generous.”
Sigh.