Charting the Vikings’ Course to the Big Dance
March 6, 2015Indians have injury setback; scooter is day-to-day
March 6, 2015Few professional basketball players have possessed the arsenal of abilities and talents like those of LeBron James. Many have had superlative individual skills and attributes (Russell Westbrook’s speed, Chris Paul’s passing, Kyle Korver’s shooting, Kendrick Perkins’ ability to foul), but few with nearly every weapon at their disposal. Michael Jordan was close. But Michael Jordan couldn’t guard half the centers in the league. Magic Johnson was close. But there was never the threat of Magic exploding for 50 points when his teammates failed him. James is on the short list of players who nearly had all the weapons. Nearly.
Over the course of his career, James improved his defense, his post game, and his shooting to respectable levels that seem unfair in tandem with his other destructive capabilities. Though the Court could belabor minor points here or there, James is really good, great, or excellent in every facet of basketball but one: free throw shooting. He’s a good free throw shooter. That’s all there is to it. At a career percentage of 74.5, LeBron James is a good free throw shooter.
After reaching five NBA Finals and winning two championships, most of the ghosts haunting James’ immaculate basketball mansion disappeared, including the “he’s not clutch” specter that once occupied the foyer. Every once in a while, even after a complete and successful exorcism, one of the ghosts rears its ugly heads, and gives James and his team a spook.
Such was the case on Sunday afternoon. With the Cavs down one with four seconds remaining in overtime, James Harden fouled (LeBron) James on a drive to the hoop. In a playoff atmosphere in hostile territory, Cavalier James went to the line with a chance to make two free throws and clinch the game. Both clanked off the rim. The Cavaliers lost 103-104, and as certain as morning dew the spirit of Skip Bayless and like-minded morons appeared to wail away: “LeBroooon, you’re not a good free throw shooterrrrrrr. Not clutch. Not clutchhhhhhh. You needed Waaaaaaaaaade. Boooooooo.”
LeBron took responsibility for the loss, despite carrying the offense for the entire game. He scored 27 points two nights later in a Cavalier dismantling of the Boston Celtics, and was sublime in another playoff-like game on Wednesday night with 17 fourth quarter points against the Toronto Raptors, including 5 from the free throw line out of only 6 opportunities. Ghosts be gone. But the question before the Court today is the following: Is LeBron James a clutch free throw shooter?
[Related: Kyrie Irving vs. The Haters: Case Closed]
What Is clutch? When Is clutch?
Using the indispensable Basketball-Reference.com, the Court compiled every single free throw attempt of LeBron James’ career: all 9,151 trips to that lonesome stripe. To investigate the issue, we must first define what and when “clutch” happens. Sinking both free throws after a shooting foul in the third quarter with a 30-point lead is not clutch. Dwight Howard could make 100 consecutive free throws in an empty gym, blindfolded, and on the moon but no one cares because the component of pressure seen in an NBA game is absent.
According to NBA.com, clutch occurs in the last five minutes of a game (the fourth quarter or any overtime) when the score is within five points. So a player’s team may be ahead or behind. Let’s call this “clutch time,” for when (with very few exceptions) clutch happens.
LeBron’s Free Throw Shooting in Clutch Time and in Do or Die Situations
Use the aforementioned definition of clutch time, LeBron James has attempted 868 clutch time free throws to date in his career, making 666 of them.1 That’s a 76.7 percent clutch time free throw percentage for James, quite a bit over his 74.5 career percentage on non-clutch time free throws.
A working theory the Court sought to test to appease The Lazy Narrative, was that LeBron has more trouble when his team needs the free throws. James leads the league this season in fourth-quarter scoring with 7.1 points per game, and scores 4.5 points per game in clutch time, trailing only Kevin Durant at 4.7.2 He shoots nearly 50 percent on field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. So it’s not surprising he’s a better free throw shooter in clutch time. But what about when the free throws are the difference between winning or losing a game, when the pressure is at its greatest — its most suffocating?
The Court defined a “do or die free throw” as one that occurs with less than a minute remaining in the fourth quarter or overtime, and when making the free throw is necessary to either tie the game or take the lead during the series of free throws. This sounds more complicated than it is, and is best illustrated by example. If a team fouls an opponent whose team is in the bonus with thirty seconds remaining up two, the fouled player has two do or die free throws. The gist is that a do or die free throw could conceivably be the team’s last chance to score, and missing the free throw would likely cause a loss or blow a chance to win the game. Hence the term “do or die.” The two free throws James took in Sunday’s Rockets game were both do or die free throws.
In his career, James has only taken 70 do or die free throws. He has made 50 of them, or 71.4 percent. That’s more than three percent below his career average for all free throws, hinting that the added pressure in the tensest moments of the tensest games causes James to err just a smidgeon more than he normally would. This is a fairly small sample size, though, so give it limited deference.
Other Relevant Factors
A few individual figures to represent James’ free throw shooting in clutch time vs. all other times throughout his career ignores how he has evolved at the line over his career. Has he improved? Are the narratives not only lazy, but old? The table below and accompanying chart show how, overall, James clutch free throw shooting is trending upward.3
There are a few takeaways from the table and chart. First, James carried the Cavaliers to the Finals in a diluted Eastern Conference in 2007 despite having his worst season form the line in his career, presumably because his back hurt from carrying the Cavaliers. James’ 86.5 clutch time free throw percentage in 2010-11 is fantastic, and a feat he may never duplicate. James is slumping badly at the line this season, as is seen in the down tick of the graph. However, he’s 3-of-5 on do or die free throws this season even after the two bricks on Sunday in Houston, and went an insane 21-of-22 on do or die free throws as a Cavalier from 2007-10.
Of course, not even all clutch or do or die free throws are created equal. What about the playoffs, where every free throw is meaningful, and the clutch free throws are even clutch-ier! The results are mostly uninteresting. Most importantly, James is a 75.5 percent free throw shooter in all playoff scenarios, which is higher than his career average on all attempts. His clutch time free throw percentage is nearly identical to that of his regular season tries.
James is only 4-of-6 on do or die free throws in the playoffs, but 4-of-4 as a Cavalier. James made two free throws with 25 seconds left in overtime against the Washington Wizards on May 3rd, 2006, to take the lead. He had to follow that up with a last second layup to give the Cavaliers a 3-2 series lead. Over three years later, James made two free throws against the Orlando Magic on May 26th, 2009, to force overtime in an eventual, all-time demoralizing Cavalier loss that gave Orlando a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Comparing James’ Free Throw Clutchness With His Peers
We’ve given a little more context to James’ free throw shooting in his own career, but do the best and supposedly “more clutch” free throw shooters elevate their performance in clutch moments. Looking at this season alone, it varies. Prince James Harden, league leader in free throw attempts and clutch time free throw attempts, converts his clutch time free throws at a rate that’s 5.6 percent lower.
Among qualifying players4 who elevate their performance, DeMarcus Cousins and Jeff Green have the most dramatic improvement so far this season — they’ve gone a combined ludicrous 53-of-54 from the line. Among players who crumble the most are Damian Lillard (drops from 85.9 percent to 75.7 percent in clutch time) and Tim Duncan (drops from 72.2 percent to 53.3 percent).
LeBron James is above the middle of the pack. His 4.1 percent jump in clutch time is good for the the 66th percentile among qualifiers. That’s a respectable increase. Notably, 60 percent of qualifiers shoot at a better rate in clutch time than they do in all situations. Kyrie Irving has made 19 of 20 clutch time free throws this season, an excellent rate that also benefits from one of the biggest jumps in the league among qualifiers.
Conclusion
If the Court must answer the question Is LeBron James a clutch free throw shooter? in one word, the answer is Yes. He may not be automatic at the line like Michael Jordan and other all-time greats, but his career still supports the proposition that he’s clutch at the line, even if by a slim margin. However others decide the issue, the data isn’t much fuel for the ever-roaring flames of the #hottakes inferno and certainly not convincing enough to say that he did (to use that loaded term) “choke” with any individual free throw miss.
The Court rules in favor of LeBron James’ Fourth Quarter Free Throw Shooting. The Court orders The Lazy Narrative to find a creative angle the next time James is on the losing end of a closely contested game, if for only once. But don’t join the Kyrie Irving Haters Club, either. As a collateral matter, Cavs fans are forbidden from becoming enraged at James misses. Read the preceding for an account of his free throw successes. James free throw shooting may be a weakness in his game, but it’s not worth complaining about given what else he adds to the Cavaliers. No one watches The Godfather and says it was lousy movie because James Caan’s (Sonny Corleone) punches didn’t look realistic when he mimed beating the hell out of Carlo. It’s just a flaw we’ll have to live with.
Case Closed.
12 Comments
Not convinced. Then again, I grew up on Mark Price, who was a career 90% FT shooter, including just short of 95% in 1991-2 and 1992-3. So unless he gets THAT good, he probably won’t ever be good enough for me.
That said, I expect at least at FT percentage of 80% from someone of his caliber, and yes, his presence at the line has made me nervous his entire Cavaliers career. And 2007-2010 is not today. He looks worse/less confident at the line now than he did then.
Excellent article. I didn’t listen to any sports talk the day after the game because I knew it would be the same old skip bayless-esque BS. “LeBron’s not clutch! Kyrie is more clutch!”
It is odd he’s not a better free throw shooter, though.
Wow, what a lot of work, Kyle. Good stuff.
My impression before reading this is that he bricks FTs at various stages of games – he’s a big, muscular guy and loses and regains his stroke in mini-streaks.
In the bigger picture almost every star loses a game missing FTs at some point. The Cavs won that one playoff series in the ’70s (“freakin’ MIRACLE at Richfield!!!”) because Elvin Hayes bricked 2 FTs in a do-or-die. And he was a dominant offensive player with a soft touch, a HOFer, kind of that era’s Dirk. Cost a very good Bullets team their season. It happens.
If a game goes into OT, are the last 5 min of the 4th quarter still considered clutch time, as they are no longer the last 5 min of the game?
As for Lebron, you can tell when he’s not focused on his FTs. When he takes his time and bends his knees and has good form, he’s a much better shooter. But at least once a game I see him just rush it and I know it’s not going in. A little more patience and his percentage would definitely go up.
Mark Price is 2nd alltime by .0004% to Steve Nash. LeBron is NEVER going to be good enough for you.
James is having an uncharacteristically bad year at the FT line. he is a careeer 74.5% FT shooter and has been over 75% in each of the last 6 seasons. this year he is shooting 71.5%. he should regress to his career averages at some point (which means making some more free throws, but not likely to shoot 80% on them either).
they have to be clutch as the player’s don’t know they aren’t the last 5 minutes and if they don’t survive them, then the game never even goes to OT, right?
I think Nash is faking his injury so he doesn’t risk losing that crown.
Just because I agree doesn’t make it so 🙂
That’s one hell of a conspiracy.
Boohoo let me compare my favorite players free throw shooting to others. Lebron is not clutch. He will never be THAT player. He’s not that talented on offense to begin with. Sure he’s got the physical ability/size to compensate for his lack of elite offensive skill, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s just not that skilled with a basketball in his hands. Jordan didn’t have the SIZE to guard half of the leagues centers, but he had the defensive prowess and skill to do it. That’s an ass-clown comparison to make. Lebrons not even the best player in the league right now, let alone anywhere near Jordan’s level. They don’t even belong in the same breath. Lebron, like a LOT of today’s top offensive players, is simply reaping the benefit of silly rules changes that have rendered defense a joke in the NBA in an effort to make the game more exciting.
Case Closed.
And I have no doubt Magic could have dropped 50 at will. He was one of the most naturally talented offensive player to lace em up.
this is just fantastic work. For me, I think stats like these are always situation-based. If a guy is having a good run at the line (or maybe, more generally, in the game as a whole) i think he’ll continue his hotness, and vice-versa. Regardless of my opinion, this is a really wonderful piece of research.
Sarcasm or Kobe fan?