Justin Gilbert working out with Joe Haden
March 3, 2015Play Ball: Indians spring season begins with McAllister audition
March 3, 2015The way defensive metrics rate Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Brantley has officially perplexed Terry Francona. In an interview conducted a few days back in Goodyear, Arizona, Francona admitted that, while he has been in the game for quite some time, he has no idea why advanced analytics rate the MVP candidate so poorly.
“I have no idea. For the life of me, I can’t understand it,” he said. “That’s something that perplexes me to no end. He’s one of the best left fielders in the game. I don’t get it. I don’t know if I ever will.”
While he was masterful with his bat in 2014, defensive metrics were none to kind to Brantley in the way of coverage and ability to prevent runs. In a piece published at WFNY late last season, we discussed how Brantley was one of the reasons why the team was grading out so poorly when it came to fielding the ball and stopping the opponent from crossing the plate. According to Fangraphs, Brantley ranked 42nd out of 59 left fielders with a minus-6.3 UZR 150; he ranked 37th with minus-3 defensive runs saved. As Zach Meisel from Cleveland.com points out, among 15 players who logged 800 or more innings in left field, Brantley ranked 14th in UZR.
In a piece written by WFNY’s Jacob, Brantley is compared to Derek Jeter (a Gold Glove winner) in the way that his range is the biggest downfall. He catches balls he can get to—he just doesn’t get to many. Taking a list of defensive runs saved above average, and Brantley falls in 120th with a -3. (This compares to Kansas City’s Alex Gordon, the eventual Gold Glove winner, who prevented 27 more runs than the average player—worth almost three wins with this alone.)
The Indians, as a team, had the second-best FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark in baseball last season, but had the 13th worst earned run average, large in part to the lack of coverage displayed across the board.
When it comes to counting stats, however, Brantley faired well, recording just one error and 12 outfield assists.
“The defensive metrics are still a work in progress,” added Francona. “I guarantee every team in the league would take his defense and be thrilled.”
5 Comments
Suppose that’s why a guy like Tito gets paid. Otherwise, we could just program robots to look at stats and determine lineups
Analytics, baby, analytics!
This is a perfect example of not taking everything the analytics crowd tells you at face value. Many of the newer stats are valuable, but it’s ridiculous to assume they are infallible.
Sometimes you just have to trust what you are seeing.
Or it’s an example of Tito sticking up for his player because he’s not going anywhere and is a good player despite having crappy range and being a below-average left fielder.
And often, your eyes will lie to you. MB does well on the balls he gets to, he just doesn’t get to nearly as many as other guys do.
Francona is doing exactly what a manager should be doing- he’s sticking up for his guy and taking the heat off of his player. Managers are there to bear the blame, and to balance personalities in the clubhouse, and to be the “final say” – but, in general, the less they do during the game, the better.
“would take his defense and be thrilled . . . as long as it came with that bat”.