Indians Series Summary No. 6: Are we there yet? No, dear, be patient
April 27, 2015Woj: The Cavs had Kevin Love’s back
April 27, 2015It’s NFL draft week, Cleveland Browns fans. It’s one of the weirdest and quietest pre-draft periods I can remember. Maybe it’s the Cavaliers being back in the NBA Playoffs with LeBron James at the helm, or maybe it’s the hangover from so many tough first rounds over the past decade. Whatever it is, I don’t feel that same excitement level as more Browns fans seem to dread Thursday night’s moment when their team find themselves “on the clock.” Regardless of all that â and after going through the process for myself thinking about many different options â I’ve got my preferred game plan for the Cleveland Browns for the first round of the 2015 NFL draft.
First things first: I have come to the conclusion that I do not want the Cleveland Browns to trade up to draft Marcus Mariota. I’ve been through the process thinking about the top quarterbacks in the draft because the Browns are still the Browns and there is zero clarity or visibility on the future for the team at the sport’s most important position. Regardless of the fact that the Browns have Josh McCown, Thad Lewis, Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw, and regardless of my desire to see the Browns find a better quarterback, I don’t support using two first-round draft picks (and likely even more) to draft Mariota. I still like Mariota and prefer risking my draft picks on him rather than the off-the-field potential of Jameis Winston. That being said, I’ll just skip the expensive quarterback trade-up completely.1
In the absence of Andrew Luck, you have to think it’s a more sound team-building strategy to take two shots in the first round.
So now that I’ve covered what I don’t want the Browns to do, what do I want them to do? I can’t pick any two players out and say that the Browns need to select them. First, I don’t have that level of knowledge of the prospects. Second, I don’t have any idea who is going to be on the board when the Browns pick. Those two things granted, it’s too boring to just say “best player available” and close the book on this post.
Here’s what I can say definitively, however: If the Browns select any player who is likely a consensus number one player on the board at his position, I don’t think I will complain. This includes Todd Gurley, the running back from Georgia. I know the Browns failed in the selection of Trent Richardson. I know they failed that test extra hard because they also traded up a spot to ensure they got their guy. That has little to nothing to do with Todd Gurley. I know the trends around running backs and running the ball in general in the NFL is on a downward trend, but the biggest crime in the Browns drafting Trent Richardson is that he didn’t work out, not that they drafted his position.
Of course my preference would be for the Browns to find difference-making talent on both lines with their two picks. That’s something I’ve been pretty consistent with even back to the T-Rich pick when I made the case a number of times, “Why not Kalil?”2 When you come to realize that there are going to be Pro Bowl level players available both times the Browns are on the clock, then it seems increasingly fun to imagine one of those guys playing every down at the point of attack on defense and every down at the point of attack on offense. That’s not to say I’d complain if the Browns picked a wide receiver either, but ultimately, I think an offensive lineman â assuming you draft the right one â can help improve the prospects for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers alike.
In the end, I’ve waffled a lot and spoke vaguely about lots of things, but I am willing to say this as my most definitive statement heading into the 2015 NFL draft for the Cleveland Browns: I want the team to come out of the draft with a much more positive outlook on running the football. Whether that’s with a beastly runner, offensive lineman, or even a talented tight end later on in the draft, I know that a team featuring this roster of quarterbacks is going to have to run the ball often.
That’s the key to this draft for the Browns because it’s the key to winning football games for this team in the near future. This team is going to have to play the best defense we’ve seen since 1999 and also run the ball frequently. If the Browns come out of the draft saying they’ll be able to do that, I’ll be hopeful and at least momentarily happy with the results.
- Now if one of the two quarterbacks drop to the Browns picks, we can talk, but I’m pretty confident that will not happen. [↩]
- Matt Kalil is of course no lock either. Pro Football Focus isn’t a fan. Still, I think we’d look back on a Kalil pick and say, “Thank goodness he’s not T-Rich!” [↩]
81 Comments
This is basically my feeling as well. I don’t have much faith in Johnny, but I’m not going to pretend like this is an impossible task for him. In college, he was very much the guy who wanted to prove doubters wrong, so maybe he can become a sober version of that guy this time around. At the same time, I hope the Browns do more at the QB position than Manziel, Josh McCown, and Thad Lewis. If Ray can’t get Jameis or Marcus, then find the diamond in the rough later in the draft.
Running the ball AND stopping the run? It’s almost EXACTLY WHAT WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOING SINCE ’99!
Sorry, been holding that in for a while.
What’s this “we” stuff? You got a mouse in your pocket or something?
I have royal blood.
Well as long as you don’t follow this ridiculous notion of trading multiple 1st round picks over multiple years for Marcus Mariota, you won’t hear a peep out of me. đ
(Disclaimer: not a guaranteed statement)
A likely story, Sir Ulrich von Lichtenstein
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/e2/f6/0a/e2f60aeb9f282bbe4a5591f22620274b.jpg
Pat, might be VENOM in disguise :
http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130806233356/marveldatabase/images/1/14/MacDonald_Gargan_(Earth-12131)_001.png
I have no idea what you’re talking about good sir… now which way to Queens?
http://s3.amazonaws.com/root-slideshow-prod/images%2Fslides%2Fcta-eddie-then.jpg
https://38.media.tumblr.com/f131c86600627a66d4dc63aba64fbcc9/tumblr_mubi08CbHL1qh5hj8o1_400.gif
http://cdn29.elitedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/1372434481_queenii.gif
You know the makers of that movie were Brown’s fans?
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ma21fiORVN1qd5epjo4_400.gif
Naw, keep the picks, trade Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, and whatever other Joe’s we have on our roster. All the Joes!!!
I’ll be snoring if they draft two “fat guys,” but that is preferable to trading up to 2 for mariotta.
In this draft, there aren’t a lot of QBs TEs and its slim on elite DEs though đ
generally, I agree with Craig and the logic that trading up isn’t wise. But, I like your scenario here. Seeing Johnny leave would seal it for me. And not losing anything next year? Yeah, i’d do that. And I’m not even that big of a Mariota fan (I worry mostly about his ability to get a team in and out of a huddle on time, get the team in the right set, pre-snap reads, etc. I also wonder how he would handle adversity)
Wow, I really dont like Johnny. Interesting moment of cognition. I didnt realize it was that bad. If he stays I’ll root like hell for him (I will never understand people who root against players on their chosen favorite team), but I think that’s the definition of addition by subtraction.
I agree completely. His problems last year was because he was an idiot, not because he doesn’t have the athleticism. If the light comes on for him then I still think he can be an above average CB. If not, lets see what he can do as a return specialist, but that’s a ways away yet
WHO ARE YOU CALLING A SISSY?!?!?
/hot taekz
If the Browns trade picks for a QB, then I’d say 19 and 77 + Manziel for Phillip Rivers. Then you take Danny Shelton at 12 (he should be there) and Strong, Devin Smith or Clive Walford should still be around for the 2nd round pick. After that, spend the rest of the picks on run stoppers. Rivers and McCown training Shaw and Thad (if he sticks around this time), or training who they pick up next year. Just think, Rivers, Hartline, Bowe, and Hawkins make it easier for Crowell and West to run it, add another receiving TE and you have a pretty dangerous offense for once. Just shore up that defense and playoffs doesn’t sound like just a dream, but a possibility. As for Rivers maybe not wanting to come over, we’re not L.A., and if he ever wanted to be referred to like a God and have bronze statues and plaques erected in his honor, Cleveland would probably do that, on day 2.
That’s it, just keep waiting for next year!
Let’s not forget, too, that Haden was kind of a bonehead his rookie year. I don’t know that his stat line was bad (didn’t look it up), but certainly he was no stellar citizen.
Agree. It’s taken me a while to realize that all the mock drafts never pan out. All the talk about need is either obvious or contrived. Seems like this is the year my pre-draft apathy finally came together. That doesn’t make me any less excited for the actual draft though.
The NFL could benefit from a little scarcity.
great post HARV …
I couldn’t disagree more. In your best cast scenario they won’t make the playoffs with any QB currently on the roster. QB is so important in today’s NFL that you have to keep trying until you find your guy.
Under that rational you will actually be compounding the mistake of drafting Manziel rather than trying to correct it. Just because that was a terrible pick doesn’t mean that you play timid and don’t take a chance on Mariota. Unless of course you don’t think Mariota is good enough or you enjoy missing the playoffs every year. QB is by far the most important position on the field in today’s NFL. You have to find your guy. I think Mariota can be a winner in this league. I Can’t say the same for any QB currently on this roster. Obviously a lot depends on how much you have to give up, 2 first and a second for a potential franchise QB for the next 12 years is an ok risk/reward scenario for me.
I do not see Mariota as a potential franchise QB. He may be the second best QB in the draft, MAYBE, but just like every other year, the projected “second best QB” is touted as a franchise QB. Seeing him get his rear kicked in vs OSU, I do not think he is a franchise guy. To me, you would have to be very sure that he is going to be a legitimate QB if you are trading away 2 cheap starters for him. You should be able to plug a first rounder into the lineup as a starter, especially if you are picking in the top 20. Sorry but I am just no that impressed with Mariota. What about him excites you and makes you think he will be successful as an NFL QB?
First round QBs:
2006
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
2007
Russell
Quinn
2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
2009
Stafford
Sanchez
Freeman
2010
Bradford
Tebow
2011
Newton
Locker
Gabbert
Ponder
2012
Luck
Griffin
Tannehill
Weeden
2013
Manual
2014
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/23/nfl-draft-jameis-winston-marcus-mariota-andrew-luck-robert-griffin-blaine-gabbert/
Be careful not to count your chickens before they’ve hatched. Well yes, a first round pick should slide into your starting lineup how many of our first-round picks lately have been able to do that? Obviously there is no guarantee that we hit on any of our 10 potential pics, I just don’t like how easy people think it is to hit on those 2. However, i do recognize that Mariota doesn’t appear to be the next Luck in terms of “sure thing” status. That only happens once a decade. If your draft strategy is to count on that guy coming along its foolish. Landing that type of player has more to do with luck, no pun intended, than analytics. What I like about Mariota is that he appears to have all the intangibles and intelligence/work ethic that you need to succeed at QB in the NFL. Couple that with his physical tools and that I see him being far more comfortable from the pocket then many claim. Look at how many throws he made from the pocket against FSU. I didn’t like his final line against OSU other than the joy of being a buckeye fan. Lol. Still 1 game won’t make or break my opinion on a player. He checks too many boxes in my opinion not to take a chance. Considering how important attitude and maturity is in NFL QB success I think Gruden is right when he says Mariota may be a better pick than Winston.
Be careful not to put all your eggs in one basket. If you look back at previous years, you probably average 55-60% hit rate for first rounders. We gave Weeden 23 starts. We gave Manziel 1 (2 if you count the Car game in which he got hurt). If Manziel is that bad this year, we will be picking higher than this year and have a chance to get a “possible franchise QB” next year for a lot cheaper AND have a few guys that could be studs from this draft.
All in all, I am tired of sucking, and if this does not work out, we are set back another few years. I just don’t see it. If they draft him, I hope I am wrong.
Hahaha, well played with the eggs in a basket line, i see what you did there and I like it. I guess we are basically divided on our assessment of Johnny, to simplify it. I’ve never thought of Manziel as a pro QB. Even if he was a choir boy with no off the field issues I still don’t think he can play at this level. He doesn’t have the speed/size or the physical tools to succeed in the NFL. Then you throw in the BS and I’m more than done at this point. He was the one certainty I had about last years draft, I didn’t want him. So I’m pretty sure that even when sober and dedicated (I don’t think he knows what the even means, rich kid privilege) I don’t see him winning games. Obviously if you feel different about Johnny then I can see your point about rolling the dice this year and worst case grabbing one of the top QB’s next year. It Makes sense. I’m honestly worried about how we are viewed by players and the effect it has on contract talks. The Browns are viewed as a circus, and that hurts our credability with players looking for a ring. Mack wanted out and it’s safe to say he still does. how many times has he heard “but wait till next year”? So another year of turmoil and delaying the next (inevitable in my eyes) QB change does more damage to our stock. Like I said, it really boils down to our evaluations on Mariota and Manziel essentially. And that’s what makes these debates fun. I just hope the team can finally figure the QB position out, regardless of who’s right or wrong. For the record, Bridgewater was my top QB last year and I’m still a little bitter we didn’t take him. . Hopefully whatever study they employ this year, they listen to it. Lol.