Joe Gilbert’s Fearless 2015 NFL Mock Draft
April 30, 2015Video: Mike Polk imagines the first episode of Hard Knocks with the Cleveland Browns
April 30, 2015The one constant of the Cleveland Browns Draft Day experience is that the team tends to move around as much (or more) than any of their peers. The movement is particularly noticeable in the first round—sometimes it is moving up a single spot to obtain Trent Richardson, or Justin Gilbert; other tmes it is moving down to stockpile future picks, which initially involves passing up Mark Sanchez, Julio Jones, and Sammy Watkins for Alex Mack, Phil Taylor, and Justin Gilbert later in the frame. Every now and then, however, the Cleveland Browns will eschew a bounty of picks to trade down in order to stand pat and select a player they feel has a unique skillset like Joe Haden or Barkevious Mingo.
With all of that movement, the Cleveland Browns make it especially difficult for fans to pinpoint players of interest before the draft. While it is difficult enough to figure out the top twelve players in the draft, it is exponentially more difficult to figure out every possible draft position and the players that could or should be selected in each spot. So, the plan here is to give an idea of what to expect from each spot. If you need a primer on the positions of need for the Cleveland Browns, then please go and read WFNYer Joe Gilbert’s excellent article on team needs first.
Here are the categories that will be covered for each pick. Realize that the selections made are my own and that there will be a wide range of opinions on these players especially the deeper we get into the draft. For another opinion on where players should go, please consult WFNY Joe Gilbert’s Big Board. The first two days of the NFL draft are covered here (the first three rounds).
Go up and git ‘em: Players who will likely not be attainable at that position and will require a trade up to acquire them. Also, limiting it to players actually worth investing the resources to move up and only factoring in small moves from that spot.
Stay the course: Players who will likely be attainable at that position and will not require a trade up to acquire them. Also, limiting it to players actually worth taking at that spot.
Drop it like it’s hot: Players worth making small movement downwards in the draft to gain more resources/picks and still end up with a quality player.
[Related: Joe Gilbert’s 2015 Mock Draft]
Round 1, Pick 12 (12 overall)
Go up and git ‘em
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon: Might as well start with the most controversial possibility1 . WFNY’s Craig has already noted with good reason why he believes such a move would be a mistake. However, if the Browns do believe that Mariota is a possibility to be a franchise quarterback, then moving up would be a good move as if he is a potential franchise quarterback, then he likely will not last until pick twelve.
Leonard Williams, DL, USC / Danny Shelton, NT, Washington: Based on the recent history of interior DL falling on draft day, there is a chance that Danny Shelton could fall to the Browns at pick twelve. However, Shelton fits in with several of the teams ahead of the Browns first selection including the Chicago Bears and it might be necessary to make a move if the team wants to acquire him. Leonard Williams will almost definitely go in the first few selections, so it would take a bounty of picks to move up to get him. He may be worth it.
Dante Fowler Jr, OLB, Florida: It is in my opinion that Fowler is the best OLB prospect in this particular draft. He is capable against both the run and the pass and has demonstrated an advanced ability to recognize plays and utilize his hands to create space with oncoming blockers. If other teams fall in love with the more athletic edge players (Vic Beasely, Clemson and Shane Ray, Missouri), then the Browns may be able to move up a few spots to grab him. It is highly unlikely he falls to twelve.
Stay the course
Kevin White, WR, WVU / Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama / Devante Parker, WR, Louisville: All three pass catchers are rated similarly and one should be available for the Browns to pick. I prefer Amari or Devante, but not enough to give up extra resources. If the Browns want a WR, then they should take whichever one falls. The third rated WR this year may end up being the next Odell Beckham Jr. afterall.
Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa / D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida: I do not think that the Browns have a critical need on the OL assuming that Alex Mack comes back healthy. However, given Mack’s impending 2016 FA status along with the opportunity to build depth and increase the team’s ability to run the ball, taking OL in the first round is not a bad option. Either of these players has the ability to displace the current starter on the right side of the Browns OL.
Drop it like it’s hot
Malcom Brown, DL, Texas / Eddie Goldman, DL Florida State: Both gentlemen would be solid additions to the Browns DL. However, they are extremely similar in rating and it is quite possible to trade down and still be able to draft one. Therefore, if there is a willing suitor for the pick, the Browns could listen and still obtain one of these players.
Round 1, Pick 19 (19 overall)
Go up and git ‘em
Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky: Has the size and speed to be a real menace in the NFL. He needs some refinement, but the skillset is there. If he drops and there is a more suitable pick at 12, then the Browns could very well move up to get this dynamic talent.
Stay the course
La’el Collins, OT, LSU / Ereck Flowers, OL, Miami: Collins is likely gone by this pick, but I included him to emphasize my point that OL is not an urgent need. Flowers has the potential to either replace John Greco or Mitchell Scwartz on the right side, so he would be an adequate pick here.
Landon Collins, S, Alabama: If somehow he drops (and as a safety, it ispossible), then the Browns just take the talent and worry about how to fit him in their talented backfield later.
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska: He has issues off the field and holes on the field, but he is undoubtedly talented and worth the risk at this portion of the draft.
Drop it like it’s hot
Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF / Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State / Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma: All these pass catchers have some talent, but their issues and risks are too high for this portion of the draft. However, there could be a team desperate to jump up as their 1st round draftable players get taken, and the Browns could take advantage of such a team, then take such a risk on one of these players later in the first round.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa, OLB, UCLA: Just as talented as the top five OLB in this draft, but injuries have held him back in rankings (in particular his hip). The Browns could determine to take the risk on his health and move back a few spots to pick him up (also knwn as the Phil Savage special).
Cameron Erving, OC, Florida State: With Alex Mack, Erving would be a bit of a luxury pick, but he is really good and could slot in at RG, while offering the Browns protection in case Mack leaves in FA or has further injury issues. Moving down and acquiring extra assets helps make this insurance policy easier to take.
Round 2, Pick 11 (43 overall)
Go up and git ‘em
Hao’oli Kikaha, OLB, Washington / Erick Kendricks, ILB, UCLA: From what I have seen, these players are being vastly under-rated as they are both suberb talents that will likely be considered a steal at the top of the second round by the end of the season. If either player is available, then I would be fine with the Browns not risking them falling further and making a move for them.
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia / Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin: It is possible that these players drop through the end of the first round, but I doubt they last until the Browns seocnd round pick. Without a known quantity at QB, I do not see it as a bad investment to ensure a better running game.
Stay the course
Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor: If the Browns determine that Petty has the skillset that they want to mold, then this is where they likely need to take him.
Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia: Rankings are a bit all over the board for him, but I think that the Browns could be in a nice spot to pick him up. He could fill the void adequately that was left when Jabaal Sheard left.
Nelson Agholor, WR, USC / Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State: I almost put these players into the “Drop It” category, but WR tend to go a bit quickly in round 2, so the Browns may be best served to just take them if they fall to them here.
Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon: He plays like a scarecrow , which terrifies me a bit (tends to stand upright and try to just use his athleticism rather than technique). However, he has outstanding athleticism and utilizes his hands well. If he refines that technique, then he could be a great find here.
Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota: Apparently, he is a first round prospect. I do not quite get why that is, but if he drops to here, then he would be a nice pickup.
Drop it like it’s hot
Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon: Zone-Blocking-Scheme(ZBS) guy by skillset and Oregon ran the ZBS in their spread. He’s not the strongest guy in the world, but he is athletic enough to make up for it. Also,TE from HS, there’s a chance we could use him as a blocking TE.
Nate Orchard, DL, Utah: He is a pure pass rusher that could develop similar to Paul Kruger. Not worth a top investment due to his risks, but teams can rarely have enough pass rushing talent.
Round 3, Pick 13 (77 overall)
Go up and git ‘em
Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State: He is a pure football player and is going to make some team extremely happy and likely become a fan favorite as well.
Stay the course
Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State: There is a good chance that a team takes him in the second round, but if he is available here, then the Browns could pick up a player who could very well be one of the top QBs in this class. He has great footwork and accuracy, which makes up for his lacking in pure arm strength. It is tough to determine if he can throw in NFL windows or make the proper reads (just like almost all QB prospects).
Clive Walford, TE, Miami: Big, strong, reliable blocker who has enough speed to be a threat. He needs to improve on his catching, but I am more willing to have a TE who needs to improve there than a WR.
Tony Lippett, WR, Michigan State: Deceptive speed with decent but not great route running ability. His size and intensity though make him a possible mid-round value pick. His willingness to play CB when the Spartans had a need demonstrates his desire to be on the field as much as possible along with his athletic potential.
Kyle Emanuel, OLB, North Dakota State: He is a similar player to Nate Orchard, but played against lesser opponents. Less investement plus same skillset sounds good to me.
Xavier Cooper, DL, Washington State: He is a DL pass rush specialist who could be a real weapon on passing downs initially and grow into an every down player. He and John Hughes could complement each other well.
Drop it like it’s hot
Ty Sambrailo, OL, Colorado State: – I love this guy more than most. He has such good feet and is so ridiculously athletic (plays pretty much any sport and they showed clips of him as an award-winning skier during Senior Bowl). Needs to get stronger, needs to use his hands better (blocking style would be holding in NFL – wasn’t in college), but he’s an under-rated guy IMO.
Gabe Wright, DL, Auburn / Joey Mbu, DL, Houston: Neither player is likely a starter, but either could be rotational DL pieces and great depth to have.
Other players to watch later in the draft (in no particular order)
Davis Tull, OLB, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Cedric Reed, OLB, Texas
Markus Golden, OLB, Missouri
UDFA candidate: Zach Wagenmann, DL, Montana
Grady Jarrett, DL, Clemson
Kaleb Uells, DL, Mississippi State
Christian Covington, DL, Rice
Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona State
Ellis McCarthy, DL, UCLA
UDFA candidate: Xavier Williams, DL, Northern Iowa
Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
Cody Prewitt, S, Mississippi
Jordan Richards, S, Stanford
Byron Jones, S/CB, UConn
D’Joun Smith, CB, Florida Atlantic
Josh Shaw, CB/S, USC
Nick Marshall, CB, Auburn – ??? (in the maybe worth a shot category)
UDFA candidate: De’Antue Saunders, CB, Tennessee State
Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
Jamon Brown, OT, Louisville
Rob Havenstein, OG, Wisconsin
Mark Glowinski, OG, WVU
Chad Hamilton, OG, Coastal Carolina
UDFA candidate: Greg Mancz, OG, Toledo
UDFA candidate: Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart
James O’Shaugnessy, TE, Illinois State
Tyler Kroft, TE, Rutgers
MyCole Pruitt, TE, Southern Illinois
UDFA candidate: Casey Pierce, TE, Kent State
Darren Waller, WR, GaTech
Cam Worthy, WR, East Carolina
Titus Davis, WR, Central Michigan
Gavin Lutman, WR, Pittsburgh State(KS)
UDFA candidate: Dezmin Lewis – Central Arkansas
Jay Ajai, RB, Boise State
David Cobb, RB, Minnesota
Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Auburn
Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina
Dee Hart, RB, Colorado State
UDFA candidate: Tyler Varga, FB, Yale
Stay tuned for WFNY’s coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft throughout the night.
- assuming that Tampa takes Jameis Winston and his littany of baggage with the first overall pick. [↩]
27 Comments
I just read that La’el Collins is trying to drop out of the draft so he can attend to his legal matters and then enter the supplemental draft. Why would he do that? How does he stand to benefit from that?
His agent likely believes that his outstanding legal issues will have ramifications to where he will get drafted, but that they are minor enough that he can reclaim his place in the draft after they are settled. Plus, the immediate help factor may drive a team in the top10 willing to gamble a 2016 pick on him that they may believe will be in the lower 20s (see: Atlanta or Chicago).
Got it. Thanks.
I’ve read more than a few draftnik reporters saying that, until they can get something official saying that he’s really not a suspect or involved in any way with the crime, teams would rather pass on him than take the chance.
Unfair? Yes. Terrible timing? Yes. But also understandable. If you’re a team, do you really take that chance? And if you’re Collins, would you rather fall to the second or third rounds and lose out on all that money or enter the supplemental draft and go first round (and maybe even higher thanks to some desperate team)?
Makes sense. Thanks.
Now that WFNY puts the byline at the end of the article I sometimes try to guess who I’m reading. The clarity, the organization, the outrageous level of detail … never had a doubt.
Nice job, bode.
Thank you sir. I definitely don’t have the prose writing chops of some of the fellow WFNY guys, so I try to do my part with those categories. I appreciate that you appreciate it 🙂
What is your best case
I appreciate that you appreciate that we appreciate it.
just stay at 12 & 19 , select the best players available & it will be nearly impossible to go wrong.
It’s always possible to go wrong 🙂
Leonard Williams and Dante Fowler in the 1st 🙂
Realistically, and assuming we stand pat, I’d be ecstatic with something like this one but there are many other iterations that would work as well:
12: Shelton, DT
19: Flowers, OT
43: Kikaha, OLB
77: Lockett / Lippett — WR
111: Gerod Holliman, S
115: Jay Ajai, RB
147: Josh Shaw, CB/S, USC
189: Mark Glowinski, OG
202: Davis Tull, OLB, Tennessee-Chattanooga
229: Nick Marshall, CB, Auburn (possibly use him at a bunch of spots)
UDFA as listed above.
Hmm…
Feel free to disagree with any or all of the above. I won’t mind 🙂
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT FOR NFL DRAFT:
Malcolm Brown = Texas RB
Malcom Brown = Texas DL
No QBs for you?
I don’t know what to think about the QBs this year. College QBs are almost impossible to judge anymore. As such, I don’t see any that are definitively better than what we already have. I’m not happy about going into 2015 with only McCown and Johnny, but, if I’m not certain on a QB, then I’d rather just build up the team around them.
Mariota – likely gone by 12 and likely not worth 12 if he’s still there (NFL wide scout evaluation)
Petty – could be there at 43. I’m not sold on him but he has such a pretty release. I won’t be mad, but I’m a big fan of Kikaha.
Grayson – 77 would be the pick for him. He could develop into the guy and it’s probably the right choice, but he also probably doesn’t help the Browns in 2015 as much as those 2 WRs.
Bridges – high upside guys in the 7th or UDFA are fine by me, but they are just filler for the first couple years regardless.
Collins was denied. He is in the draft. Now, it is possible he drops to 19. I doubt he would still be there at 43. Someone will take the chance.
twitter.com/JasonPhilCole/status/593885047154974721
Are you not seeing the byline at the top?
last week or two disappeared from under headline to end of story. Unless I’m missing something, which is totally possible.
No Mariota trade scenarios, and a nice blend of offensive and defensive players. Like I said before, not a peep. 😉
Yeah! Devante Parker or Danny Shelton!
did the Browns just trade their #19 pick?
Kidding. give me Parker at 19, unless KC sneaks in there.
So far Farmer agrees too
Erving is fine with me since flowers was long gone
Agreed. Nice value pick and he can step right in at RG or RT possibly. Will also provide some insurance at C when Mack ops out at end of the year.
Yes, and let us not forget that Greco’s contract has a stipulation based on amount of snaps played (or starts). So, he’ll earn backup money as the backup