Cavs still have second best odds to win NBA Title
April 29, 2015The Ballad of Mad Dog, Chip and The Coach
April 29, 2015At this point only a fool or a troll — either of the Internet or fantasy lore variety — would deny that Cleveland Cavaliers forward/guard/amorphous and positionless basketball-Swiss-Army-knife LeBron James is a great NBA player. But now, in his twelfth season, he’s reaching milestone statistical totals on par with all-time greats. It’s not exactly worth running a headline that James has passed Cliff Hagan in career playoff points (season eight), having a piñata and face-cake when James passed Gus Williams in postseason rebounds (season six), or throwing a parade when James passed Terry Porter in career playoff assists (season ten).
However, it’s worth memorializing LeBron James passing some of the all-time greats in statistical categories in which they excelled. During the first round playoff series against the Boston Celtics that ended in a sweep on Sunday, LeBron James passed Los Angeles Lakers great Jerry West for the seventh most playoff points in NBA history, as well as Michael Jordan for tenth in career playoff assists. We’ve reached the point where every other game involves a nonchalant mid-broadcast declaration that LeBron James has passed an NBA legend in an important career playoff statistic; when recognition of James’ ascendancy to greatness is casually sprinkled between commercial breaks.
Every other game involves a nonchalant mid-broadcast declaration that LeBron James has passed an NBA legend.
The table below shows the top playoff minute getters, with projected playoff totals based on potential games played in the 2014-15 season.1 James’ recently surpassed Dennis Johnson, Larry Bird, John Havlicek, Derek Fisher, and Robert Horry in career playoff minutes. James is nearing 7500 career playoff minutes played, and is currently 13th all time in minutes played.2
James’ assist totals are maybe the most interesting, as he passed His Airness Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant in career playoff assists during the Celtics series. The table below shows that James could be active career playoff assist leader when the books close on the 2014-15 playoffs, but Tony Parker is right there. Surpassing Magic Johnson and John Stockton may be outside the realm of possibility for James — depending on how long he plays — but those assist totals are basically the only ones that appear unattainable at this point.
During the Celtics series, James passed Jerry West for the seventh most playoff points in playoff history. Karl Malone is James’ next target, and Tim Duncan could pass Shaquille O’Neal this season. As the chart below shows, it’s not unthinkable that James will jump over Michael Jordan to become the leading scorer in NBA playoff history.
The table below summarizes James’ place in NBA playoff history, showing his totals and all-time rankings in NBA history. The far right column shows that, depending on how many more games James plays this postseason, some legends are squarely in the crosshairs. It serves as a reminder that history is being written now. It’s surreal to think that many Cavs fans will soon have watched James play more playoff minutes than Bill Russell did in his career and earn more steals than Larry Bird did in his storied playoff tenure.
The graph below illustrates how James is already one of the most productive postseason players in NBA history. If you combine the points, steals, rebounds, blocks, and assists of every NBA player with over 1500 playoff minutes, James is the tenth most productive player in NBA history. Tim Duncan is prolific in his own right, but it’s possible that James will overtake Bill Russell, Karl Malone, Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Tim Duncan in the not-so-distant future to become the most productive individual in NBA playoff history.
All Cleveland fans are justifiably depressed about the probable absence of Kevin Love throughout the remainder of the playoffs. But it’s good to have LeBron James on our team. It’s strange to think that he’s already among the top-ten players in NBA history, with what’s hopefully a lot of career remaining. It makes a sport fan and Cavs fan contemplate his own mortality. It will take a superhuman effort from the rest of the Cavalier crew to win the NBA Finals: Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, and even James Jones. It doesn’t hurt to take notice as LeBron James breezes past all-time greats like he’s buying items on his grocery list. I don’t know if the Cavs can win a title without Kevin Love, but it doesn’t hurt to have one legend around.
- Non-active players or players not in the playoffs have horizontal lines, because their totals won’t change throughout the 2014-15 postseason; they aren’t playing in the playoffs. James and Tim Duncan, on the other hand, could play as many as 25 games, in Duncan’s case even more. Anything from eight to 25 is possible for James, and something like 8 is probably the median outcome for James should we simulate the playoffs 1000 times. All projections are based on career averages, and of course aren’t going to be perfect. But they should be a realistic projection. [↩]
- All of these totals are courtesy of my soulmate, Basketball-Reference.com, and are NBA and ABA combined totals. [↩]