Craig Ehlo is still recovering from The Shot
May 4, 2015LeBron James finishes third in MVP voting
May 4, 2015As difficult as the last week has been coping with the loss of Kevin Love and the suspension of J.R. Smith, the Cleveland Cavaliers still have a series against the Chicago Bulls to play. Despite the letdown and uncertainty caused by Love’s injury and Smith’s suspension, the Cavaliers are still favorites to win the series, they have the two best players on the floor, and they have homecourt advantage.
But how, specifically, are they going to rework the offense and adjust their defense to combat the Bulls? Let’s take a look at what I think are some of the keys to advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Role players assemble!
In the first two Smith-less games especially, the Cavaliers are going to have to get a couple of double digit scoring efforts from players they don’t normally ask to score. It would certainly help if both Iman Shumpert and Tristan Thompson, due to the large number of minutes they’ll play, reach that count, but one has to look further down the bench.
A lot of it depends on who David Blatt chooses to start and bring off the bench first. James Jones has been in the rotation in small amounts fairly consistently, and now his minutes will likely balloon — and he could even potentially start — if the Cavs choose to stretch the floor and go small with James at the four. Both Thompson and Timofey Mozgov are going to have to be more efficient at converting as the roll man on the pick and rolls they run with Irving and James.
In those first two games without Smith, either Mike Miller or Shawn Marion will likely be logging some significant minutes. When J.R. returns, the Cavaliers will hopefully have done no worse than split at home, and Smith will be called upon to do what he did for a decent portion of his time in Cleveland, score like a true third option.
Win the three-point arc
The Cavaliers made 10.1 threes per game in the regular season, and they were just about at that rate with 39 made threes in four games against Boston. However, 17 of those 39 makes came courtesy of Love and Smith. Even if you get 5-to-8 threes from Irving and James, the Cavs are going to create open shots for their supporting cast, and someone is going to have to knock them down. Guys like Matthew Dellavedova, Jones, Shumpert, and Mike Miller are going to have to make the most of their opportunities and give the Cavs 5 or 6 made threes per game until Smith is back.
As for the Bulls, they made 7.9 threes per game (15th in the NBA), but they shot and made more of them in the Milwaukee series. In six games, they made 67 threes, with three players (Dunleavy, Rose, Miller) putting 15 or more. In the regular season, the Cavaliers managed to outscore the Bulls from behind the arc only once, in the final matchup, a 99-94 Cavs win in which they made 16 to Chicago’s 11.
[Related: A look at the history between the Bulls and Cavs]
In the Milwaukee series, Rose was 15-of-40 (37.5 percent versus 28.0 percent in the regular season), Butler was 15-for-37 (40.5 percent versus 37.8 in regular season), and Dunleavy was 17-for-31 (54.8 percent versus 40.7 regular season). The Bulls have secondary shooters to look out for as well with Aaron Brooks (38.7 percent), Nikola Mirotic (31.6 percent), and Tony Snell (37.1 percent).
Simply put, I don’t see how the Cavaliers can win this series if the Bulls starters shoot it as well as they did last series and if the Cavaliers can’t win the three-point arc, the foundation for a good deal of their success in the second half of the season.
Gasol’s struggles
While the Bulls played the Cavaliers short-handed in every game this year, they are now at full strength. One player that did appear in all four matchups, however, was Pau Gasol. In a season where Gasol has looked much more like the age 30-31 Gasol from his Los Angeles days, the Cavaliers largely held him in check. Pau shot 22-of-61 (36 percent) against the Cavs, averaging 14.0 points and 9.8 rebounds.
Tristan Thompson and later Timofey Mozgov were able to keep Pau out of the low post for the most part and relegate him to shooting deep jumpers. As the only true post threat on the roster, Gasol holds the power to put Thompson and Mozgov in foul trouble. Behind them, the Cavaliers have only Kendrick Perkins and Brendan Haywood to body up with big men. The wine and gold must turn the tables on Gasol, a poor and aging defender, and run him in frequent pick and rolls to tire him out and potentially get him into foul trouble away from the basket.
Delly, Jones, Shumpert, and Miller are going to have to make the most of their opportunities
One thing that the Bulls have that few teams do is multiple capable defenders to guard LeBron James. Both Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell have shown an ability to force James to turn the ball over and settle for less than desirable shots. In four games against Chicago this year, LeBron has shot 47.9 percent, scoring 28.3 points to go with 7.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 5.0 turnovers.
What worries me is three-fold: Tom Thibodeau’s past playoff scheme success against LeBron while with Boston, Butler and Snell being able to switch off on James, and the big bodies of Gasol and Noah inside as James attacks the rim in a physical game. If the Cavs get an officiating crew like they did in Boston for Game 3 or 4, where LeBron and Kyrie had several empty trips on drives to the hoop, things could get ugly.
Turnovers and pace
Chicago just finished a six-game series with the young Milwaukee Bucks where their long and athletic defenders forced the Bulls into coughing it up 98 times. The Cavaliers don’t have the same defense as the Bucks, but perhaps they can take some pointers from the Bucks to get some quick, easy buckets in transition. The Bulls rank 23rd in pace, while Cleveland was 25th.
Playing a smaller, defensive-oriented lineup is something that we have not seen much of this year, but it could be forced upon them out of necessity. Defense-first players like Dellavedova and Marion could join James, Thompson, and Shumpert if they can turn over the Bulls and force pace, rather than settling into halfcourt looks with that lineup which would almost certainly be isolation with James.
With the Cavaliers playing different lineups than they have for most of the stretch run, some intriguing cross-matchups are going to develop. We could see LeBron James (and even James Jones or Shawn Marion) guarding Joakim Noah or Taj Gibson when he’s the four. Kyrie Irving may more frequently check Butler or Dunleavy rather than Rose.
Which Rose?
Perhaps more than anything, the series hinges on Derrick Rose and which version of him shows up for more games. Against Milwaukee, Rose had two brilliant performances, in Game 1 (23 points, 9-of-16 shooting, 7 assists) and Game 3 (34 points, 12-of-23 shooting, 5 rebounds, 8 assists). In the other four games, he averaged just 14.3 points while shooting 32.7 percent, turning the ball over 14 times in their two losses. If Rose is loose with his handle and missing from outside, the Cavaliers can sag to help in the post on Gasol and defend other priority shooters. Shumpert, Irving, and Dellavedova will all play a role in trying to hold him in check. With the consistency of Butler, the Cavs probably cannot win a series with four of those star performances from Rose.
The trump card
For most of the season, we’ve felt as if the Cavaliers have been saving that extra gear for the postseason when push comes to shove. After a series where they were heavily favored, the time to shift to that gear is now. In those first two games in particular, James and Irving must navigate their team through and turn in star-studded performances. It will take everything they have.
That means less late-shot-clock predictable iso ball and more movement by both off of the ball. It means setting up their teammates and having them deliver when they’re open. It’s going to be the type of series where James and Irving will have to play 43-45 minutes per night without question. The Cavaliers have the two best players in this series, and they’ll have to play like it if the Cavaliers want to advance. For all of the “Cavs cannot win the series if…” qualifiers that I outlined above, I believe the Cavaliers have entered playoff series with less and walked away winners. The Bulls are human too, after what we saw from them in the first round at full strength.
If the Cavaliers can gain at least a split at home for the first two games without Smith, they go to Chicago with Smith needing to do the same. If this series is 2-2 after four, I like the Cavaliers’ chances to take two out of three with two of those three inside The Q.
3 Comments
I expect both Kyrie and Lebron to have huge games in game 1 to set the tone. Now is the time for Lebron to put up one of his 35-40 point games. He needs to be the leader from the get go in this one.
I don’t want to see Dunleavy have a big game!
Go at Butler, go at Rose and Timo play smart because after LBJ and KI I think you’ll be the next most important Cavalier.
Oh and for the horrible referees don’t let it become a football game but don’t call nine fouls in the first six minutes either!
How to beat the Bulls:
https://youtu.be/GdKcyxmXzBw