A fine day in Cleveland, oral histories, and Pixies: While We’re Waiting…
May 20, 2015Gettin’ Dat Pipe: Cavs vs. Hawk Game 1: Behind the Box Score
May 20, 2015After six years in banishment, the Cleveland Cavaliers have returned to the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot has changed since 2009: Then-President Barack Obama was trying to connect with the Twitter generation; Mad Men was receiving the praise of consumers; Taylor Swift was owning the Billboard charts; the Cleveland Browns were looking to improve upon a sub-.500 season; the Cleveland Indians weren’t giving their reigning Cy Young winner the run support he needed; and LeBron James was asserting his status as the best basketball player in the world.
OK, those may have been bad examples to illustrate how long it’s been since the Cavs’ last trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. How about this? Delonte West, Sasha Pavlovic, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, and Wally Szczerbiak were all still semi-relevant NBA players earning substantial playoff minutes for the 2008-09 Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving was completing his junior year at St. Patrick’s High School in New Jersey, and was more concerned with passing Spanish II (where he was known to his compañeros as “Jorge Irving”) than he was with breaking down the Atlanta Hawks defense.1 Now, Cavs fans are expecting Irving to help end the title drought, and perhaps restore their faith in a just and righteous universe that’s remained cruelly unreceptive to their championship aspirations. How long do those six years feel now?
Also like 2009, an upstart three-point shooting team from the Southeast Division is looking to terminate the Cavs title hopes. According to Basketball-Reference.com, both the 2008-09 Magic and 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks attempted 26.2 three-point field goal attempts per game in the regular season.2 Will it end differently this time? What are signals for a Cavaliers rise or demise? Jacob and Kyle of WFNY are here to investigate omens both good and bad.
Jacob: The Cavs Will Win If … We see superhero LeBron again. That’s the fellow who showed up in Game 4 against Chicago on the offensive end, and defended multiple Bulls at a time in Game 6. The fact the Cavs are even in this position without Love and Varejao, and with a banged-up Kyrie Irving is insane. So against a 60-win team that’s far more consistent than the offensively challenged Bulls, we’ll need to see a lot more of MVP LeBron this series. A slow start could be devastating on the road.
Kyle: Well, that’s like saying Popeye’s going to win an arm-wrestling match if he gets his spinach. Luckily for Cavs fans, James often remembers his cape for the conference championship: He’s averaged 29.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists in 37 Eastern Conference Finals games, and scores 35 or more points every fifth game. Here’s another one I’ll add:
The Cavs Will Win If … They can keep Jeff Teague from penetrating into the lane. Even though the Cavs iso-centric offense is annoying at times, it is a luxury to have an offense that can function with little to no external power if necessary. The Hawks don’t have much in the way of players that can run an offense by themselves, and thus need a jolt to start their offense. They frequently rely on point guard Jeff Teague’s penetration to start quality possessions for them. If Teague can breach the Cavs outer defenses, then that forces rotations that open up not only the first target (likely a rolling Al Horford or Paul Millsap) but a secondary (and more dangerous) target such as wide open Kyle Korver or DeMarre Carroll. Teague was visibly more aggressive in the Hawks’ last three games against the Wizards, which the Hawks swept. Teague trails only LeBron James in total drives in the postseason, and the 12.6 team points per game resulting from his drives don’t accurately reflect how much more deadly the Hawks offense is when Teague knifes into the interior.
Jacob: That’s a great point, Kyle. And as I shared recently: Teague has had some great success against the Cavaliers in the past. With Irving’s health and not knowing whether Matthew Dellavedova can be a playoff star forever, defending Teague becomes an even greater concern. The Hawks were first in the regular season with assists on 67.6 percent of their made baskets. They’ve maintained that exact rate through 12 playoff games so far. For comparison, the Cavs were at 58.7 percent in the regular season and are at 52.5 percent in the playoffs. While Dennis Schroder and Horford/Millsap also are major assist forces for Atlanta, Teague is the main weapon that makes their offense work.
Jeff Teague reg season stats since 2011-12:
13 Cleveland games: 17.8 PPG, 2.79 A/TO, 60.2 TS%
285 other games: 14.9 PPG, 2.41 A/TO, 54.7 TS%— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) May 19, 2015
Kyle: Switching to my pessimistic side, I’ll take the opposite side of your earlier point. The Cavs Will Lose If … LeBron relies on his superpowers to the detriment of his teammates. In the first three games of the playoffs, LeBron’s usage rate was 31.1 percent. Kevin Love nearly lost his arm in the fourth game, and LeBron’s usage rate has soared to 37.4 percent since. This isn’t all bad (as LeBron James generally excels at “using a basketball”). But LeBron has 102 isolation possessions in the playoffs, 16 more than runner-up James Harden and over 50 (!!!) more than everyone else.3 Most disconcerting, James has the fewest points per possession of any player with more than 25 playoff isolation possessions.4 James iso-ed six percent less frequently in the regular season, and was significantly more efficient doing so.5 Meanwhile, he’s generating more points per game by assists than any remaining player. If you want to know why James’ shooting numbers are down, look no further than his insistence on playing hero ball in the playoffs. Superman should use his heat vision to fry evildoers attacking Metropolis, not to heat up hors d’oeuvres to impress people at a cocktail party.
Jacob: I’ve been fascinated by LeBron’s comments on how he turned off his dead-set focus on efficiency during these playoffs. He arguably had his worst 10-game shooting slump in seven seasons to start the playoffs! But I do think LeBron’s efficiency — both in the post and with assist-to-turnover ratios — can be a useful indicator for how well the Cavs are in sync. Here’s my main take: The Cavs Will Lose If … The Hawks offense hums to its full potential. Horford and Millsap are incredibly versatile frontcourt scorers. Korver is arguably the second-most dangerous shooter in the world outside of Steph Curry. Constant attention needs to be paid to Korver running around screens. And yet, Carroll actually has been the team’s leading scorer in the playoffs! The Hawks have missed a lot of open shots in these playoffs and have seen their shooting efficiency drop ever since the All-Star Break. But if they get hot, like Warriors hot, and all of their shooters are shooting, they’re very, very tough to keep up with. These teams exchanged blowout wins by way of the three-point bomb during the regular season. That’d be a tough blow in this series if it happened again.
Kyle: Maybe. Are we even sure what the Hawks’ full offensive potential is anymore? They were sixth in offensive efficiency in the regular season, with an offensive rating of 106.2 points per hundred possessions. But that doesn’t tell the whole story: Pre-All-Star break, the Hawks’ offensive efficiency was 107.3 (fifth), contrasted with 104.2 (11th) post-All-Star. In the playoffs, they’ve had a mediocre offensive rating of 102.0, narrowly behind the New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards. Maybe the Hawks’ fiery shooting (53.2 effective field goal percentage pre-All-Star Game, second in the NBA) was a combination of teams discounting the Hawks and some uncharacteristic hot streaks. Let us never forget the December game when Shelvin (Expletive) Mack made 6-of-6 threes against the Cavs.
Jacob: I’m intrigued neither of us has mentioned Tristan Thompson and the Cavs’ advantage on the offensive boards. I know Fear The Sword’s David Zavac would be very angry if I didn’t mention this. The Cavs Will Win If … Tristan is a dominant force on the offensive glass. During the regular season, despite being a 60-win team, the Hawks were actually dead last in net Offensive Rebounding Percentage at -5.2 percent. Cleveland was ninth at +1.5 percent. Upon LeBron’s return to the starting lineup and the winning ways, they were even better at +2.3 percent. This relates back to the classic trade-off between (steadily increasing) three-point shooting and (relatively decreasing) offensive rebounding. The Cavs, along with Houston and Portland, have bucked this trend over the past two seasons and Tristan’s presence is a gigantic reason why. Yes, the Bulls grabbed a large number of offensive rebounds themselves too during the last series, but the battle for these extra possessions will be fascinating here. Atlanta seems to not emphasize the offensive glass at all. Any final thoughts from your perspective?
Kyle: I don’t want to ever be accused of not showering enough praise on one of the Cavs big men, which brings me to my last point: The Cavs Will Win If … Timofey Mozgov can play more than 25 minutes per game. The Cavs have had a net rating of 11.6 when Mozgov is on the floor, partly because Mozgov has been doing an admirable Anthony Davis impression all playoffs long — holding opposing players to a deflated 34.7 percent shooting at the rim while earning 2.2 blocks per game. If Mozgov isn’t on the floor due to foul trouble or because LeBron sent him to his room after a missed assignment, then Horford and Millsap (who are on the floor together nearly half of every game) will punish the Cavs. The Cavs won’t be able to hide James Jones on Horford or Millsap like they did with Noah or Hinrich versus the Bulls. Thompson and Mozgov each have one elite skill (offensive rebounding and rim protection, respectively) and the Cavs will need both in bunches to clip the Hawks. Gov-zilla needs to stomp and smash and generally raise all sorts of hell if the Cavs are to reach NBA Finals.
Oh, and one last thing. The Cavs Will Win If … God Doesn’t Hate Cleveland. Just kidding. I don’t subscribe to the belief that the Almighty holds grudges or meddles in my personal affairs or even has a reliable cable or satellite provider to broadcast NBA playoff games, but if the Cavs are eliminated in the conference finals by another foe who shoots better than 40 percent on threes, I’m going to start to get suspicious.
- Kyrie Irving’s enrollment in Spanish class and name of Jorge purely imaginative. [↩]
- That was good for the second most in the NBA in 2008-09; seventh in 2014-15. [↩]
- Jamal Crawford is third with 44 iso possessions. [↩]
- Well, James is tied with Jimmy Butler in last with .73 points per possession. But Jimmy Butler only had 30 iso possessions. Kyrie Irving, on the other hand, is third-most efficient with a point per iso possession. [↩]
- James scored .93 points per possession on isos in the regular season, compared with .73 thus far in the playoffs. [↩]
10 Comments
Ky’s injury has me worried, if Matty can play like he has been, managing his minutes and getting him in spots where he can actually be effective will be key this series, to illustrate how much whatever this is has affected Ky’s game (a bit of a repost from a thread on FTS):
According to NBAwowy, since April 22nd (just before 3rd game of Celts series):
-in 292min/549 possessions with Ky on the court, the Cavs have given up 107 points per 100 possessions and scored 109 (net +2)
-in 92min/159 possessions with Ky off the court they’ve given up 91 points per 100 possessions and scored 116 (net +25!)
For comparison,
– in the 164minutes/302 possessions Matty has played, Cavs have given up 100 points per 100 possessions and scored 110 (net +10)
-in the 220 minutes/406 possessions he’s been off the court, Cavs have given up 107 points per 100 possessions and scored 111(net +4)
For additional comparison and to show that this was likely due to injury, let’s look at Ky’s numbers when he wasn’t hurt and Cavs were late season Cavs (from Jan 15 to April 22):
-in 1437 minutes/2810 possessions with Ky on the court the Cavs gave up 104 points/100 possessions and scored 116 (net +12)
-in 739 minutes/1375 possessions with Ky off the court the Cavs gave up 105 points/100 possessions and scored 110 (net +4)
Ky is clearly injured, he went from being a (slight) net positive on defense and big positive on offense to being a clear negative on both. Some of this is clearly small sample size and differences in players they have to play against, but there’s no shame in not being as effective when you’re injured, Ky and Blatt should work to limit his minutes and figure out when to play him when he can be effective given his more limited repertoire with the injuries and in such a way that he can give his best when he’s out there. I’m not sure if this is the sort of thing that wants warming up, but if it is, we might see the bike for Ky and more limited minutes especially when ATL brings out someone that Ky can hide on a bit on D.
(By the way, Matty’s numbers during the Jan 15-Apr 22 stretch aren’t nearly as nice as Kyrie’s or his during this stretch, but as you get later in the season they get closer to what he’s done in the playoffs so far, he probably was also fighting through injury for part of that time, he came back from the knee injury in mid December, but didn’t look back to his normal self to me until maybe late Feb/early March, moral of this story, injuries matter! Especially knee injuries.)
IMO this series will be determined in large part by how Blatt figures out how to use both Ky and Delly and put them both in positions to succeed against ATL, if he plays Ky as much as he’s used to, given the injuries, it’s going to be hard for us to win, figuring out how many minutes and with what lineups and against what lineups is above my pay grade, but is the key to the series.
The Cavs will win if Lebron cuts down the turnovers and poorer shot selection and the Cavs continue to rotate well on D.
I do think that this will be a fun series to watch and though the chess match could be interesting, it’s perhaps less about the chess match and, since each team knows what the other likes to run and how, more about executing the various D’s well enough to stop one another.
I do expect the Cavs to press on occasion if only to reduce the options available to the Hawks once they get the ball up the court.
Thorough. He’s clearly a liability on defense in his current condition. I wouldn’t have considered him a negative on offense in Games 5-6 last series.
Yea … I probably should have mentioned LeBron’s turnovers. It’s just not fun to talk about.
They haven’t pressed much all season, and Irving shouldn’t press even when he’s healthy. If by “press” you mean “have Dellavedova hound Teague on the inbound pass and down the court” … then yea I expect that.
Certainly they’ll do that.
I just wonder if at some point in the series that Cavs pull out a stronger press. Blatt did something along those lines in the EuroLeague playoffs, IIRC, with great success. Considering how much the Hawks rely on a rhythm and forcing Ds to rotate over and over until a shot opens up, limiting their time to do so could be interesting.
With all due respect to the x’s and o’s and the legit points about Cavs needing to defend the pick and roll and a limpy Kyrie and Delly trying to slow penetration by Teague and umlaut, I break it down a different way by looking at it from the Hawks’ perspective.
They have to slay the Dragon. The league has few Dragons, and we have one. He’s as battle-tested while still being at the height of his powers as anyone since Jordan and Bird and Magic and Russell. It’s really, really hard to keep those Dragons out of the finals in a 7 game series. You can certainly outsmart them a game or two but there’s a reason they’re dragons. They know how to win, fear nothing and they have many ways to beat you. We were justifiably worried about the Wiz’s old dragon even though he’s long past his prime.
Shocking as it may still be, we have the Dragon. If Kyrie gets limpy again, Cavs in 6. If he keeps it reasonably together, 5.
Shump and Delly need to contain Shroeder otherwise he is going to tear our 2nd unit a new one.
Shroeder is screaming fast. Be prepared with how much ease he’ll get into the key. He doesnt always make the right decisions once there he can cause lots of issues.
My keys are;
1) Kyrie’s health/effectiveness. Hopefully he looks like he did right before reinjuring his knee and can at least stay that way. It would be very tough to win if Kyrie can’t do his thing.
2) Play sound defense. Mainly we need to reduce layups/dunks, fast breaks, wide open 3’s. They are going to score but we need to force them to take difficult shots.
3) Limit our turnovers. Unlike Chi, Atl will usually turn these into easy transition points.
4) Crash the boards. Rebounding is one of our clear advantages and we need to use that to force them to take one shot per possession while creating a lot of seconds chances for ourselves.
5) Shoot effectively from 3. If our outside shots don’t fall, they might be able to marginalize LeBron by crowding the paint.
6) Take one of the first two games. I don’t like our chances if we have to win 4 out of the last 5 games.
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