The K-Team: Putting the Indians’ Staggering Strikeout Rate in Context

In the same way you probably slept through last night’s 5-3 Indians win in Seattle (and the 13 Kluber K’s that came with it), you might also be forgivably unaware that the 2015 Tribe pitching staff is well on pace to shatter the all-time Major League record for strikeouts in a season. That’s a record, by the way, currently held by…last season’s Cleveland Indians. Weird, huh?

In the span of three years, a rotation once famously stocked with sinkerballing worm-burner inducers has improbably morphed into a crack commando unit of world-class, grossly underpaid punchout artists. Wanted by the government, they survive as soldiers of fortune. If you have a problem, if no one else can help, and if you can find them, maybe you can hire… the K-Team.

[Place holder for a hilarious and creative Indians / “A-Team” mashup video that will go super viral!]

Origin Story

Before the current fearsome foursome of Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, and Salazar could stake their surprisingly kinda-legit claim as the greatest strikeout throwing quartet of all-time (with apologies to Shaun “Pete Best” Marcum), they first had to infiltrate a Cleveland pitching staff built in stark contrast to their own style.

In the winter before the 2012 season, the Indians added free agent sinkerballer Derek Lowe to a staff that already included noted groundball inducers Justin Masterson, Fausto Carmona, and Ubaldo Jimenez. The goal, it seemed — in a post-CC & Lee / pre-CC Lee world — was to create a mid-priced rotation in the Jake Westbrook mold. They would pitch to contact, keep the ball in the yard, and rely on the glove work of defensive stalwarts Jack Hannahan and, um, Asdrubal Cabrera (only he who never believed in Droobs may cast stones).

Of course, as fast as you could say “Roberto Hernandez,” Operation Worm-Burner was a no-go for Shapiro and Co. in 2012. The former Fausto never saw the field, Lowe didn’t survive the season, Masterson regressed severely, Jimenez was awful, and fill-ins like Josh Tomlin — a flyball pitcher if there ever was one — sent the whole plan off the rails. The defense hadn’t proved quite worthy of the pitch-to-contact philosophy, either, and by season’s end, the Indians ranked 28th in starting pitcher ERA (5.25) and a measly 11th in groundball-to-flyball ratio (1.38). Notably, they were also 29th in strikeouts, averaging just 6.78 per game (6.12 from the starters).

A year later, of course, pitching coach Mickey Callaway became a local folk hero for not only reversing the courses of Masterson and Jimenez, but for going full Re-Animator on the long-since eulogized Scott Kazmir. The club’s starting rotation ERA dropped to 3.92, and their K numbers skyrocketed to 8.56 K/9, second-best in the Majors. The overlooked factor then, of course, was newcomer Corey Kluber, who quietly struck out 8.3 per 9 innings while posting 11 wins, a 3.85 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He was sporadically joined by rookie call-ups Bauer and Salazar, as well as a rehabbing Carlos Carrasco—working undercover as a busted prospect with a 6.75 ERA.

Despite having one of the weaker defenses in baseball, the Indians made the playoffs. Keeping the ball out of the defenders’ hands was the new blueprint, and while Masterson, Kazmir, and Jimenez were on the way out, The K-Team was ready to seize its moment.

Indians Starting Pitchers: Strikeouts Per 9 Innings / MLB Rank

2006: 5.40 (28th)
2007: 5.69 (24th)
2008: 5.56 (27th)
2009: 5.32 (28th)
2010: 5.55 (30th)
2011: 5.91 (27th)
2012: 6.12 (29th)
2013: 8.56 (2nd)
2014: 8.92 (1st)
2015: 10.27 (1st)*

*Through 47 games.

The Era of the Strikeout

While the mid to late 1960s might still rightfully be remembered as the “Era of the Pitcher,” it’s easy to let the Sandy Koufaxes, Sam McDowells, and Nolan Ryans obscure the fact that the strikeout — specifically — was far less prevalent in those days than it is today. And it’s not just fireballing bullpen specialists accounting for the uptick. Choose any explanation you want: league expansion, better scouting, starters throwing fewer pitches and getting more rest, strike zone changes, or hitters being less cautious with two strikes. Any way you slice it, the “Era of the Strikeout” is right now.

Back in 1968 — the famous season in which Bob Gibson posted a 1.12 ERA, Denny McLain won 31 games, Don Drysdale threw 58.2 straight scoreless innings, and the Tribe’s Luis Tiant held opponents to a .168 batting average — the league-average team K/9 rate was 5.88. By 2014, that number had risen to 7.36.

In this context, one could argue that comparing the current exploits of the 2015 K-Team to the late ‘60s squad, or even the Bob Feller clubs of the ‘40s and ‘50s, is an apples and oranges scenario — like putting the 1995 Indians homer totals up against the 1920 roster. To this, I can only say: none of us seemed to mind salivating over all those steroid-driven deep flies back in the ‘90s. So why not enjoy what the Indians’ presumably drug-free arms are doing right now?

Even if we remove the relief pitchers from the equation and focus on total strikeouts for starting pitchers, rather than their K rate, the results don’t lie.

All-Time Best Strikeout Seasons for MLB Starting Rotations:
1. 2002 Diamondbacks: 992
2. 2003 Cubs: 987
3. 2013 Tigers: 981
4. 1969 Astros: 946
5. 2014 Indians: 946
6. 1968 Indians: 940
7. 1990 Mets: 934
8. 2001 Diamondbacks: 933
9. 2011 Phillies: 932
10. 2012 Phillies: 918

Current Pace of Indians Starters in 2015: 1,072

The above projection is based on the Indians’ current SP average of 5.8 innings per start—a number strongly dragged down by the unfortunate fifth starter situation, i.e. the struggles of House/Chen/Marcum. So if that situation improves, and barring any injuries, the gold standard of the Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling D-Backs squad is very much in sight.

As far as Cleveland Indians history is concerned, some fans may still see the K-Team as upstarts—young, unproven loose cannons plying their trade in an era of free-swingers, unworthy of comparison to the mighty rotation of ’68, back when free swinging meant something different. For them, “Sudden” Sam McDowell, Luis Tiant, Sonny Siebert, and Stan Williams reigned supreme. Meanwhile, believers in the K-Team could point out that MLB had to lower the mound after that ’68 season to literally even the playing field for hitters. In any case, a comparison makes sense.

1968 vs 2015 Cleveland Indians Starting Pitchers

Any time you compare a full season of work to two months, it’s going to come with some problems. Both Kluber and Salazar are currently swimming in waters reserved almost exclusively for Randy Johnson when it comes to K rates. But if you expect them to come back to earth, you probably would have presumed the same from McDowell and Tiant in ’68, when their sub 2.0 ERAs didn’t just ride the trends of the day, they leap-frogged them.

No one is going to argue that the 2015 Indians rotation is the greatest of all time, or even the best in club history (the 1954 team, which only averaged 4.31 K/9, could still easily hold that honor). And yeah, nothing matters if you don’t win, etc., etc. But it’s not technically being hyperbolic to say that we’ve never seen four pitchers in one rotation striking guys out like this…ever. The K-Team is on a mission, and we ought to love when a plan comes together.

Current MLB Team Leaders in K/9 By Starting Pitchers (as of May 29):

1. Indians: 10.27

2. Padres: 9.01

3. Cubs: 8.85

4. Pirates: 8.40

5. Rays: 8.37