LeBron James finishes third in MVP voting
May 4, 2015All Out of Love—Cavs vs. Bulls Game 1: Behind the Box Score
May 5, 2015Cleveland Cavalier fans may not be all that confident, but numbers are still on the Wine and Gold’s side. Not only does Las Vegas have the Cavs as 4.5-point favorites heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Chicago Bulls, several analytics-based outlets are still picking LeBron James and company to move on to the next round.
The most favorable comes from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. According to Andrew Flowers and Neil Payne, the Cavs, despite being without Kevin Love and J.R. Smith (for at least two games) have a 70/30 edge over the Bulls.
Kevin Love’s dislocated shoulder leaves the Cleveland Cavaliers with just two of their “Big Three” for the rest of the playoffs. But the remaining “Big Two” — LeBron James and Kyrie Irving — are probably enough to outlast the Chicago Bulls. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which is based on Real Plus-Minus, gives the Cavs a 70 percent likelihood of moving on. The Cavs will also be without J.R. Smith — who was suspended for the first two games of this series after throwing an ill-advised elbow against the Boston Celtics.
The Cavaliers’ offense is spectacular; it ranked third, behind only the Clippers and Warriors, in points per 100 possessions. … Rose and Butler will have to have a transcendent series against a short-handed Cleveland team for the Bulls to have a chance.
While RPM can be debated, as it’s largely a proprietary figure that relies a lot on on-off-court metrics and is simultaneously helped and hindered by lineups, former Cavaliers analytics guru Ben Alamar (now with ESPN) also gives the substantial edge to Cleveland, providing them the most chance to win the series in either five or seven games.
Now that they're past the Bucks, here are the Bulls' odds against the Cavs by BPI pic.twitter.com/0WMFLpjXi1
— Ben Alamar (@BenCAlamar) May 1, 2015
If you’re looking to deviate from ESPN-owned properties, Basketball Reference’s updated probabilities have given the Cavaliers a 60.4 percent chance to win the series. Interestingly enough, B-Ref gives the Atlanta Hawks a better chance to win the Eastern Conference and they find themselves down 1-0 to the Washington Wizards. Circling back to Las Vegas, however—because Vegas knows everything—and we’ll find that it’s the Cavs (7/2) and Bulls (7/1) as the odds-on favorites to win the East, with the Wine and Gold getting the slight edge.
3 Comments
May the analytics be with you!!!
Maybe it’s just confidence in our guys but after the Bucks series I’m not worried about the Bulls.
this “analytics” guy must not have watched the game yesterday.