The Cavs are going to the NBA Finals! – Chat with WFNY on Spreecast
May 27, 2015Hanging By A Moment
May 28, 2015The Cavs are going to the NBA Finals! The Browns haven’t lost a game in exactly five months today! The Indians are playing not terrible! What a great day to use exclamation points! They can be obnoxious and grating, but the exclamation point really is an underrated piece of punctuation … top five in my book! Happy Thursday, Cleveland!
Look at how happy Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith are in the GIFs below. In the second GIF, J.R. (who’s near the bench at the top of the screen) is hopping up and down like an excited little kid who’s just been told that he’s going to pick out his pet dinosaur.1
My present and temporarily enlightened self is simply appreciating the pure, unadulterated joy of being in the Finals and having a chance at a championship. The Cavs’ exuberance has been infectious. I’ll probably be in mourning for weeks if the Cavs don’t win the Finals, but while we’re waiting for the inevitable … .
Wednesday night we learned that the Cavs will face the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. Before we launch into more detail-oriented Finals previews in the coming week, let’s have a quick update of some of WFNY’s statistical work, because there’s some interesting historical stuff to take note of before we sweat the small stuff.
First, LeBron James has fully ascended into the pantheon of basketball greats this postseason. While he’s always been a marvelous playoff performer, only sustained greatness allows one past the velvet rope to the Legends Club. While it was inevitable that James would pass some of the NBA’s bests barring a catastrophe, it’s not until those milestones are breached that you can say that James is one of the best ever, not could be. A few weeks ago, I forecasted which NBA greats James could pass this postseason.
Because the Cavs plowed their way into the Finals, James has since overtaken many of the greats that I observed were within range. Reddit user /u/WhenMachinesCry (which is coincidentally the name of my upcoming sci-fi romance film) showed how James methodically overtook Hall of Famers game after game:
– On April 19 vs. Boston in Game 1: Passed Michael Jordan (1,022) for 9th in career postseason assists.
– On April 21 vs. Boston in Game 2: Passed Jerry West (4,457) for 7th in career postseason scoring.
– On April 23 at Boston in Game 3: Passed Robert Horry (276) for 10th in career postseason steals and tied Clyde Drexler (278) for 9th in steals.
– On April 26 at Boston in Game 4: Passed Kobe Bryant (1,040) for 8th in playoff assists, Shaquille O’Neal (1,168) for 6th in free throws made and Clyde Drexler (278) for 9th in steals.
– On May 4 vs. Chicago in Game 1: Passed Scottie Pippen (1,048) for 7th in career playoff assists.
– On May 8 vs. Chicago in Game 3: Passed Tony Parker (1,059), Steven Nash (1,061) and Larry Bird (1,062) for 4th all-time in career playoff assists.
– On May 12 vs. Chicago in Game 5: Passed Jason Kidd (237) for 9th all-time in career playoff three-pointers made.
– On May 14 vs. Chicago in Game 6: Passed Tim Duncan (1,202) for 5th all-time in career playoff free throws made.
– On May 20 at Atlanta in Game 1: Passed Jerry West (1,622) for 7th all-time in NBA postseason history in field goals made.
– On May 22 at Atlanta in Game 2: Passed Jerry West (1,213) for 4th all-time in career playoff free throws made.
– On May 24 vs. Atlanta in Game 3: Passed Karl Malone (4,782) for 6th all-time in career postseason scoring and Jason Kidd (11) for 2nd all-time in playoff triple-doubles.
Also, by my count, James has become the eighth most productive postseason player of all time.2 Since the start of this postseason, James has jumped from tenth to eighth in total playoff productivity, passing Bill Russell and Karl Malone in the last few weeks. He will likely pass Magic Johnson next series, is narrowly behind Kobe Bryant, and is on pace to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the most productive player in NBA postseason history in less than 40 games; depending on whether Tim Duncan beats him to it.
Anyway, it’s hard to deny James’ status as a top-ten career NBA player anymore, and his playoff game averages are only marginally less astonishing than Michael Jordan’s. He’s had a truly marvelous career.
One of the dominant themes leading up to the Finals is that the Warriors are less experienced than the Cavaliers.3 Most arguments in favor of the Cavs begin with either: 1. LeBron James LeBron James-ing; and 2. the Warriors lacking experience (even though this is now their third playoff run as a mostly intact team). Based on WFNY’s posts on the value of playoff experience (Part 1 here & Part 2 here), we can identify the trends for each team and historic doppelgangers.
For the Cavaliers, teams that have more than 10,000 more minutes of playoff experience than their opponents are 1-4 (.200 win percentage) in head-to-head playoff matchups against teams with 10 or more regular season wins than themselves. This is a small sample size, but is discouraging.4 But teams without such an experiential advantage are 18-180 (.091 win percentage) against regular season behemoths like the Warriors. Basically, it’s unusual for teams like the Cavs to win against teams that won as many games as the Warriors, but the Cavs’ experience raises that probability. But such a matchup has never occurred in the Finals.
But consider these facts for the Warriors: only two champions of the last 31 have had less than 10,000 minutes of playoff experience entering the postseason —5 and the Warriors entered the playoffs with 8,044 minutes of experience. And it’s not as if teams as inexperienced as the Warriors have never been to the Finals: Thirteen teams with less than 10,000 minutes of playoff experience have been to the Finals since 1984, and they’re 2-11.6 Teams with similar experience levels as the Cavs are 12-5, but all of those winners had more than 55 wins in the regular season (the Cavs only had 53 regular season wins).
Obviously, these two traits (wins and experience) don’t paint the complete picture. This series will come down to LeBron James and Stephen Curry and Draymond Green and Tristan Thompson and Kendrick Perkins and David Lee (just kidding). But what I’m hinting at is that both teams are unusual and that the winner will be a historical outlier: Few teams as inexperienced as the Warriors have won the Finals, but few of those teams have been so dominant all season. Similarly, few teams as overmatched as the Cavs have won the Finals, but few of those teams have had such an experiential advantage and LeBron James. If you’re a Cavs fan looking for a historical comp for each team, you would say that the Warriors are like the 1995 Magic with Shaq and Penny (young and dominant but not ready), and the Cavs are like the 2011 Mavericks (one experienced star and a host of great role players).
Believe it or not, it didn’t end with “The Shot” for Craig Ehlo. Bleacher Report caught up with the former Cavalier of infamy, the victim of another tale of Jordan-esque conquest. The guard spent six seasons with the Cavaliers, and his career continued for another decade after Michael Jordan hit that jumper over his outstretched hand in the first round of the 1989 playoffs. After his career, Ehlo struggled with a painkiller addiction, a stark reminder that these guys have lives outside sports, and there’s a story behind all of them.
And now for your random 90s song of the day. I know the name of the track is an homage to the long winter months, but I’ve always associated the Counting Crows’ “A Long December” with the summertime, like most of their music. It’s a very melancholy song about squandered opportunities, but there’s a sort of wistful optimism there. It’s not really about December, but about the next year — and that notion of new beginnings is more aesthetically compatible with springtime than January. And it’s something to keep in mind during the Finals.
“And it’s been a long December and there’s reason to believe
Maybe this year will be better than the last
I can’t remember all the times I tried to tell my myself
To hold on to these moments as they pass.”
- He’s already told his little sister that he’s going to train it to eat her dolls. [↩]
- By combined career playoff points, steals, rebounds, blocks, and assists of every NBA player with over 1500 playoff minutes. I prefer counting stats like this more than win shares, which are valuable but fit that “mystery number” description, even more than PER. [↩]
- Largely by virtue of James’ 7,287 career playoff minutes. [↩]
- The one winner was the 1998 New York Knicks versus the Miami Heat. [↩]
- The 54-win 2004 Detroit Pistons and 58-win 1994 Rockets. [↩]
- For those interested: the 1986 Rockets (lost to the Celtics); the 1988 Pistons (lost to the Lakers); the 1990 Blazers (lost to the Pistons); the 1994 Rockets (beat the Knicks); the 1995 Magic (lost to the Rockets); the 1999 Knicks (lost to the Spurs); the 2001 76ers (lost to the Lakers); the 2002 Nets (lost to the Lakers); the 2003 Nets (lost to the Spurs); the 2004 Pistons (beat the Lakers); the 2006 Mavericks (lost to the Heat); the 2007 Cavaliers (lost to the Spurs); and the 2009 Magic (lost to the Lakers). [↩]
42 Comments
If we lose, I don’t think I’ll be disappointed. More like resigned. But until then, I’m just going to revel in the hope of possibility, the excruciating tension, and a fist thrown upward when J.R. hits a 3.
BTW, what’s the thinking on the week layoff? A tad excessive, no? It seems like Sunday would have been a good day to start.
90s SotD = Nailed. Again.
For whatever reason (probably money), they have the start date of the Finals set long in advance. I heard there was talks about moving it up once the league realized that both conference finals would end early, but the couldn’t make it happen logistically (read probably: financially).
I would agree with you about the Sunday start, however I would like to see LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Iman Shumpert fully recover from their nagging injuries. Therefore, take all the time that they can get.
Nice article about my original hometown from the best sportswriter in my new hometown:
http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/05/after_51_years_of_title_famine.html
That song! That band! That video! Courtney Cox! (Why did she have plastic surgery?) It’s like a time machine up in here.
Back to the Future (at least 2 and 3) were on Spike last weekend, so maybe it’s residual inspiration from Doc and Marty.
That’s my understanding. You wouldn’t think it’s that big of a deal given that they don’t know the cities in the advance anyway. But apparently logistically they rely on knowing the dates ahead of time. The Finals receive more publicity and media than the conference finals by several magnitudes. That’s why they also used to do 2-3-2 until recently (it’s 2-2-1-1-1 now). And a lot of people probably had their hotels/flights booked before the Cavs even clinched in reliance on that June 4 start.
And now I have Huey Lewis and the News going through my head in layers with Counting Crows.
Great article, thanks for sharing.
I’m happy win or lose as previously stated elsewhere on here by myself but I’m also greedy. The Cavaliers haven’t come this far and overcome this much to come up short. Besides I love the idea of stealing the candy from the media darling Warriors just like the Bulls and Hawks!
And nobody who is a Cavaliers fan should be upset by a week off. KI needs it for sure and so does LBJ.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK0z87WrhGo&list=PLZNrFfRDG8Ixtuw5IRxHIkNQnytU-X2rD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsX2ME1i7F8
I sure hope Marc Jackson got all his tears out last night so he can be unbiased during the finals!
Between dating Duritz and going to a Hootie concert on Friends (the single whitest thing involving a black man that happened in the ’90s*) Courtney is really becoming a staple around here. I really hope Terri Hatcher doesn’t start poking around trying to steal Courtney’s WFNY shine, like she did throughout the ’90s. Seriously is there a more interchangeable pair of actresses? No cheating; which one was in Tango and Cash and which one was in 3000 Miles to Graceland, Kurt Russell is in both and even he doesn’t know. Jack Palance knows the answer but he’s dead, I checked, so don’t even try asking him.
*1st Runner up: Hootie and The Blowfish themselves, the presence of 6 more white people in the Friends episode puts it over the top.
2nd Runner up: The OJ trial
One final note can Sponge’s Plowed get nominated for 90s song of the week? Is there a panel I can bring it before? A tribunal council? Its a one hit wonder but it needs more love than it ever gets.
New FG kicker:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2vbYAZj-Qc
Tommy T out in Chicago – Bulls moved fast!
That was a great article. Thanks for sharing.
You bet. Jones is a good local sportswriter. I’m not certain, but he may have Ohio ties. I say that because he’s always very fair and reasonable when it comes to discussing OSU in this land of anti-Buckeyes vitriol. He takes a lot of heat for it in the fall from rabid Penn Staters. Of course, he may just be a fair and reasonable person in general, which is even better. I like reading his stuff.
As long as we get “All For You” in there sometime this week… (apropos lyrics for a championship-starved city)
Great BR on Ehlo.
Interchangeable? put Courtney in that Seinfeld episode and it would not have worked at all. no sir.
Spectacular.
Wrong! The two actresses actually shared a set of implants throughout the early and mid nineties. They were pricey and neither girl had fully reached superstardom so they split the cost. Terri had the boobs that week so she got the Seinfeld part.
Incidentally whichever girl didn’t have the boobs worked under the pseudonym Winona Ryder. Strange times they were.
Courtney WAS in a Seinfeld episode though, right? I think I’m remembering that correctly… would have been before Friends started up.
Yeah, I never thought of them as being that similar.
Courtney and Jerry pretended to be married to get a discount at…the laundromat? (checking) Ah, dry cleaner. Close enough.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wife_%28Seinfeld%29
She was. Her and Jerry pretend they’re married to get a discount at the dry cleaners.
Anyone who remembers anything about Tango and Cash or 3000 Miles to Graceland deserves some kind of award.
No, no, no. Those were REAL, and they were . . . see above.
And Kramer couldn’t get his quilt back!
Yes she was.
http://www.seinfeldscripts.com/TheWife.html
Love this website. Every now and again I read through an entire script and I can picture the whole episode.
I remember Teri Hatcher and Courtney Cox. I actually liked 3000 Miles though.
June 24 the whole series is going to be available on Hulu. not that I have put that on my calendar to remind myself or anything 🙂
pretty much all NBC new shows would lend an actor/actress before they started up to a Seinfeld episode (Hatcher just before Louis & Clark). it was their way of getting extra marketing.
(tallies one more “pro” for cancelling cable and getting hulu)
the $8/month is going to be worth it for the Seinfeld episodes alone
Not so much if you already own the entire series on DVD, but I still hear ya.
think of all the calories you will save for lifting your drink by not having to get up from your couch to put the next DVD in
If only I could turn my old 5-CD changer (90s reference!) into a 5-DVD changer…
Louis & Clark – the story of gay Superman. Tagline: He’s SUPER, man. Thanks for asking!