Tribe 101 with Prof. Rosen: Mid-Term Evaluation

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or much of this baseball season, I have not been paying terribly close attention to the Indians. Basketball has dominated my attention for much of the past two months or so, but hoops season has come to a close, and it’s time to look to the diamond. I’ve caught some games on the radio and read a fair bit about the Tribe, but I don’t have a great sense of what’s going on with them.

We aren’t quite to the halfway point of the 2015 campaign, but with most teams having played about 70 games, we’re not far off. One would think that after three months, we oughta know a thing or two about this team and whether or not they can make a credible run for the postseason despite a spotty start.

I, however, do not feel that I really understand what this team is about yet. I remember the preseason discussions of a fearsome pitching staff and regressions to the mean and all that, but how have those things manifested themselves thus far? Will Corey Kluber ever get any run production? Can Jason Kipnis keep it up? Should I keep buying Francisco Lindor stock? If this team were a car, would that car break down in the middle of the desert?

[See also: Ball Played: Tigers continue mastery over Indians]

I want to know what’s up with these Indians, so I pestered WFNY’s Jacob Rosen, and he begrudgingly accepted the unenviable task of bringing me up to speed, as he did on three separate occasions in the preseason. As before, the questions I asked are in bold and display a level of baseball knowledge unbecoming of an alleged sportswriter, with Jacob’s answers marked by stats and research and other intelligent stuff.

So are these guys any good? Like, make-the-playoffs good? Would I be better served paying attention to baseball than diving into the NBA Draft or diagramming a two-quarterback offense built around Johnny Manziel and Terrelle Pryor?

Sigh. I don’t know, Will.

“Sigh” is not a great starting point, but go on.

I see that FanGraphs still has them at over 30 percent playoff odds. That’s mostly because of how good they expected the team to be this season. But at 32-37, the clock is ticking.

Often times in the baseball world, you’ll hear this idiom: Every team has at least 50 wins and at least 50 losses. It’s what you do in the other 62 that matters. The Indians are getting awful close to that mark where they really need to start making moves. It’s not over, certainly. We saw that with 2013’s season-ending 10-game winning streak. But my classic Cleveland fandom is tingling with pessimism.

FanGraphs remains moderately optimistic because the site expects the surprising Minnesota Twins (now 38-32) to fall back down to earth. Of course, the Tigers (36-34) and Royals (39-27) still exist. And there are a bundle of Wild Card contenders elsewhere in the American League. But unless this team starts winning some of these tough close games soon, it’s hard to get extremely excited about a possible playoff run.

You can almost hear the sound of my shoulders slumping. What gives? The starting rotation seems good, a couple hitters are having great years, I haven’t heard about the bullpen being a trainwreck —

Uh oh. That talk of close games and unluckiness and all makes me think of that something that was really bad last year: That whole defense thing. Have they figured out how to throw and catch the baseball? Are they still awful? If we slow down the tape, can we see every Tribe pitcher muttering unprintable things under his breath once the ball is in play? Give it to me straight, doc — how bad is it?

It has become slightly less embarrassing, at least. According to FanGraphs, the Indians rank No. 27 with a team-wide -5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating per 150. They were No. 29 in 2014 at -9.7. UZR is a fancy defensive score algorithm, and it’s per 150 games to estimate an approximate season. The only worse defensive teams this year are the White Sox, Athletics, and Padres.

Where have the biggest improvements come from thus far? Second base, where a healthy Jason Kipnis has been a legitimate AL MVP candidate. On the left side of the diamond, rookies Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela have long been advertised as very good defenders. They should produce at a very respectable defensive level from Day One. So there’s room for continued optimism here in the final 93 games of the season.

Kipnis! The kid’s an animal! This is not a question. Just hit me real quick with something showing why he’s the man.

Very astute observation. But yes, he entered Monday with 4.4 WAR.¹ Michael Brantley finished with 6.8 WAR in his third-place MVP season of 2014. We haven’t yet hit the halfway mark of 2015. So, truly, Kipnis has been absolutely tremendous. The last Indians position player with 7 WAR was Jim Thome in 2002. Kip is in pretty good shape even if he can keep up 70-80 percent of this pace.

And Lindor! He’s been good, right? I know it’s too early to tell, but does he seem like he can hang in the bigs offensively, too?

I’ve been far more optimistic on Lindor’s offense since reading ESPN’s Dan Szymborksi right after his promotion. Szymborksi, the creator of the ZiPS projection system, noted that Lindor’s rest-of-season projected OPS of .660 would be awful close to the MLB shortstop average of .672, and far better than anything the Indians had received at the position.

Through eight games, he’s only got a .466 OPS, which isn’t good, obviously. Most concerning for me is that he has seven strikeouts compared to zero walks. Through 2013, his plate discipline was one of his finest skills with 111 walks against 129 strikeouts in 231 games. In the minors in 2014-15, he had 74 walks and 135 strikeouts in 184 games. That’s not a very encouraging trend, although he’s still only 21 years old and advancing up the system quickly.

Overall, I’d love to see that OPS creep closer to the low-to-mid-.600s by the end of the season. Even at his young age, his incredible defense should carry a slightly below average bat to a pretty respectable complete package. Long term, you’d want both to improve with the potential for perennial All-Star status. It’s pretty exciting to consider he’ll be in the Indians uniform for a very long time to come.

I got all excited about Jose Ramirez for a minute there in the preseason, then he hit a whopping .180 in 46 games before being shipped down to Triple-A Columbus. Did he lose a limb or something?

Ha, nearly. Ultimately, Ramirez has never had the high-end pedigree that Lindor has. I’ve mentioned that comparison for years and years now. Ramirez was a guy who just shot up the prospect rankings back in 2012 by hitting .354 in 67 games for Single-A Lake County. But he’s undersized and seemed to be overmatched in slumping to his terrible .487 OPS this season.

With Kipnis playing great at second and Lindor and Urshela holding the fort on the left side of the infield, where does Ramirez go from here? Is there any place for him on this team?

He’s off to a solid start so far in a couple weeks down in Columbus, which is certainly encouraging. He’s still only 22 years old, under team control through 2020, and only has played 129 big league games. Depending upon how Urshela’s first MLB stint goes, there might not be a guaranteed Cleveland starting spot for J-Ram upon his eventual return. There’s also Lonnie Chisenhall chilling in Columbus too. But Mike Aviles is a free agent at the end of the year, so I’d expect Ramirez to get first dibs on his utility role in 2016.

Has Corey Kluber just been unlucky? It seems like he’s still been pretty darn good. It seems like the whole rotation’s been good. Aren’t these guys really good? What’s the deal?

Completely, unfathomably, and horrendously unlucky. It reminds me a great deal of 2010 Felix Hernandez and 2013 Chris Sale, but even worse. Both of these two are fantastic pitchers, and like 2015 Kluber, they battled off-and-on issues of team run support.

In 2010, despite a 2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and even winning the Cy Young award, King Felix had a 13-12 record. The Mariners averaged only 3.07 runs per 27 outs with him on the mound. In 2013, despite a 3.07 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and a second straight top-six MVP finish, Sale only had a 10-14 record. The White Sox averaged only 3.22 runs per 27 outs with him on the mound.

Kluber’s stats through 15 starts this season: 3.65 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and the Indians are averaging only 2.25 runs per 27 outs. They’ve scored two runs or less in 11 of his starts. Factor in a well below average defense, and you’ve got perhaps the unluckiest pitcher in a generation. It’s pretty bad out there for poor Corey, who is somehow 3-9. It’s been ridiculous.

I’m not sure if that ultimately makes me feel better or worse. What about the other guys? Are the young arms playing up to our hopeful expectations?

As for the rest of the rotation, the next three have been very solid, as expected. Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar have had a subpar start here or there, but the Indians still have one of the AL’s best rotations 1-through-4. It’s been a revolving door at the No. 5 spot with T.J. House, Bruce Chen, Shaun Marcum, and now rookie Cody Anderson, who sparkled on Sunday. I’m not totally convinced Anderson — who only had three Tripe-A starts — is a long-term solution. But there aren’t a ton of great options out there.

I’ve paid the bullpen no mind; how’s it been? Any major strengths or weaknesses? 

It’s been fine. It’s perfectly understandable that you haven’t heard much about the bullpen since a solid yet unspectacular bullpen on a mediocre team is pretty boring to the casual fan. Heck, a guy you probably have never heard of named Ryan Webb has 17 relief appearances already!

…Accurate on all counts. Good job, Ryan Webb! What about the guys I’ve (maybe) heard of?

Going pitcher-by-pitcher, Cody Allen remains very good. Bryan Shaw has had a nice bounce back year after a tough end to 2014. Marc Rzepczynski has had a great year as a frequent LOOGY.

I’ve just learned that LOOGY stands for Lefty One-Out Guy. Thank you for that.

My pleasure.

Moving on, former starter Zach McAllister has been very solid. Webb has been a nice surprise. Even youngsters like Austin Adams and Kyle Crockett have chipped in with a few nice innings here or there.

Is it time to start looking for a retirement home for Uncle Atch?

Atchison has been a mess, to the say the least, for the last month or so. At 39 years old, he might be near the end of the road. The Indians were awful quick to give him $1 million guaranteed for 2015  last summer. His 2014 was such a stunning development that you almost wondered if he’d come crashing back down to earth eventually. That’s happened now and it might be time to cut bait soon. The Adams, Crocketts, and CC Lees of the world need consistent opportunities to contribute to the team.

Some of this hardcore baseball talk — WAR and LOOGY and such — is a little over my head. Sometimes I need a metaphor to help me understand. Let’s say this team is a car, and that car is in Cleveland. Let’s say that to get to the playoffs, that car has to drive to the Pacific Ocean. How would that trip go?

This is topical, William. I actually drove my car from Ohio to the Pacific Ocean last fall.

Fantastic! What an apropos question! How’d your trip go?

It went fine, it was all pretty good, although I guess I’m exaggerating slightly since I didn’t actually see the Pacific in my car until a few months after arriving in Oregon. But regardless, this summer, I’ve left my lovely 2010 Subaru behind in Oregon while I spend 10 weeks here in Charlotte. I was pretty fortunate to borrow a spare 2001 Honda Civic from my aunt and uncle in Atlanta.

So let’s compare the Indians to this 2001 Honda Civic. It’s perfectly fine for day-to-day activities, it’s got like 150,000 miles on it, a nifty old Ohio front license plate — they don’t require front license plates down here! — but it’s got a few quirks. The driver can’t control all of the car’s windows sometimes. There’s seemingly no dashboard backlight to check the mileage at night. And although it seems to be in pretty decent condition overall with a fresh oil change, I’d feel skeptical about wanting to drive it eight hours home to Akron.

It might make it home just fine. I didn’t have the slightest problem in the world driving 3.5 hours from Atlanta to Charlotte, let alone a few more hours later that first weekend. But it’s not my car! So driving to Ohio — let alone to the Pacific — is not a risk I’d want to run completely on my own without checking with the aunt and uncle, and maybe getting the car checked out some more.

This is the 2015 Cleveland Indians, in car form. Does that suffice?

Tribe fever: catch it!

1. WAR is some nerd stat about how many wins a player adds compared to a replacement-level player. [↩]