Know Your Foe: Andrew Bogut, the biggest Aussie

Matthew Dellavedova is the Australian who has scratched and clawed his way into our hearts, and Kyrie Irving is the star with dual citizenship, but Golden State’s Andrew Bogut is the man from down under who will play the literal biggest role in the 2015 NBA Finals. The 7-footer from Melbourne has battled injuries throughout his career, but he has long been one of the better defensive centers in the league. He is often left on the bench down the stretch, but he is a significant deterrent when in the lane, and he will meet Irving and LeBron James at the rim on more than a couple occasions.

He’s a ten-year veteran, he’s a former number one pick, he’s been traded, he’s been hurt, and now he is in his first-ever NBA Finals. Here’s a glimpse of what we’ll see from Bogut against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Where’d he come from?

Bogut was born to a Croatian family in suburban Melbourne in 1984. He grew up emulating Croatian hoops legend Toni Kukoc, seeing similarities between Kukoc’s lanky frame and his own. He first visited the States with the Australian Institute of Sport, touring the country playing basketball in 2001 and 2002. He moved to the U.S. to play his college ball at Utah, albeit just for two seasons.

He made an immediate impact for the Utes and was thisclose to averaging a double-double in his first season. He averaged 12.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks on nearly 58 percent shooting, and was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year. He improved across the board as a sophomore, averaging 20.4 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks, shooting 62 percent from the floor. He led the nation with 26 double-doubles and earned heaps of accolades, including both the Naismith and Wooden awards.

After two years he decided to jump to the pros, and the Milwaukee Bucks took him with the top overall selection in the 2005 NBA Draft. The ’05 draft was a bit like a game of Minesweeper: the first round produced All-Stars Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Danny Granger, but its top ten also included the likes of Martell Webster, Charlie Villanueva, and Ike Diogu. Bogut hasn’t been the starriest player from the class, but he’s been among the steadiest.

Bogut’s first few years were promising. He started 77 games in his first season, averaging 9.4 points and 7.0 rebounds, good enough to claim a first team All-Rookie spot. He averaged 12.3 points and 8.8 rebounds the following year, but he finished the campaign on the injured list after picking up a left foot injury. He bounced back in 2007-08, averaging over 14 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.

Midway through his fourth season, however, he was hurt in a scary fall. He finished a fast break dunk against the Phoenix Suns, and he lost hold of the rim as his momentum surged forward.¹ He came down hard on his right arm, and in doing so he dislocated his elbow, broke his hand, and sprained his wrist. His season ended after 36 games. He recovered and continued his solid play over the next few seasons, but in January 2012 he had another season cut short by injury, this time a fractured ankle.

He was traded from Milwaukee to Golden State in March 2012 along with Stephen Jackson in a move that saw Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown sent to the Bucks. He did not play for the Warriors until January 2013, but he has been a relatively consistent player for the Warriors since, and he signed a three-year contract extension in October 2013. He’s no iron man — he played in 65 games this year and 67 the year before — but he is a reasonably skilled big who can be on the same floor as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson without mucking up the offensive flow.

What’s he good at?

Interior defense is rightly considered Bogut’s calling card, and that is how he has made his bones in the league for much of the past decade. He is a legitimate seven feet tall, and he knows how to use that size to his advantage. He averaged 1.7 blocks in less than 24 minutes per game this season, and he led the league in rejections with 2.6 in 2010-11.

The advanced stats are kind to Bogut as well. The Warriors allowed just 95.2 points per 100 possessions while he was on the floor, a mark that would have led the league by three whole points.² That number jumped to 100.2 when he was on the bench, which still would have been a top-10 figure leaguewide. His field goal percentage against in the restricted area was best in the NBA among regulars,³ as opponents shot just 51.6 percent against him, and he blocked 5.3 percent of all two-point shots while he was on the court, a top-12 mark. He isn’t particularly quick, but he’s big, smart, and benefits from playing on a team with a firm understanding of its defensive principles.

He fouls fairly often — he committed nearly three per game in limited minutes — but the fact that he plays such limited minutes mostly renders that fact moot. It might mess with Steve Kerr’s rotations if he picks up two fouls, say, in the first five minutes, but it isn’t like he’s a 35 minute per game player. Golden State is hardly sunk if they’re forced to sit him, and replacing him with a more skilled offensive player only makes them more threatening on that end.

He has some skills in the post — he scored 16.9 points per game on 52 percent shooting with the Bucks in 2009-10 — but the Warriors would have to be nuts to force feed him the ball on the block when Curry and Thompson are on the floor. He converted a respectable 63.6 percent of his shot attempts within five feet of the rim this year, slightly better than Jonas Valanciunas and slightly worse than Blake Griffin. He’s a decent passer as well, and registered the sixth-best assist rate among starting centers during the regular season.

He’s a good, solid all-around player, and he won’t make many mistakes. He’s a tough S.O.B. and he isn’t shy about mixing it up inside. He has heaps of veteran tricks in his bag to boot — Grantland’s Zach Lowe once wrote a piece entitled “The Glorious Bastardry of Andrew Bogut.” If you hated watching Joakim Noah set elbows-out screens and hug Cavaliers on box outs, you’ll have just as much affection for Bogut’s arm hooks and jersey tugs. Watch him rope Serge Ibaka around the neck just long enough to cost Ibaka a step on the fast break, and without drawing a whistle:

Like the Cavs’ beloved Aussie, Matthew Dellavedova, Bogut grew up playing Australian rules football — not rugby, as is often stated⁴ — and he has brought bits of that game to the NBA. From a recent New York Times profile:

Bogut, much like Dellavedova, has retained various lessons from his days playing footie, as [Aussie rules football] is known in Australia, and applied them to his current profession. Bogut does not mind jostling for position. He is not averse to contact. In fact, he almost seems to enjoy absorbing his share of punishing blows when he is not doling them out.

“If you have to get your elbows dirty sometimes,” Bogut said, “you have to get your elbows dirty.”

He and Timofey Mozgov will get to know each other mighty well over the course of the next couple weeks.

What’s he bad at?

For all of his basketballing gifts, Bogut is not a shooter. At all. He took just 22 shots from 10-plus feet out this season, making five for a sterling shooting clip of 22.7 percent. He is effective around the hoop, but he is one of the few Warriors who can be left alone with little fear that he’ll bury a jumper.

He is similarly troubled at the free throw line, which is a significant reason why he often sits fourth quarters out. He shot 52.4 percent from the stripe this season, which was actually his best conversion rate in his three years with the Warriors. Unless David Blatt mucks up the game with a hacking strategy, this is unlikely to be a major issue. Steve Kerr is no dummy, and he’ll take Bogut out any time a clutch free throw might be needed.

He is not light on his feet, and any time he winds up on the perimeter is likely an accident. The Warriors often switch screens — especially when they unleash lineups that are bigger in the backcourt⁵ — which allows Bogut to hang out near the rim and evaluate the situation. The Warriors had Bogut defend the offensively-challenged Tony Allen in their series with the Memphis Grizzlies, and Bogut would leave Allen literal yards of space so that he could patrol the paint.

Bogut has a bit of a disciplinary record. He had seven technical fouls called against him last season. He wasn’t whistled for any this year, but he did commit three flagrants. I think he’s smart enough not to do such a thing in the Finals, but all bets are off once the ball goes up and the elbows start flying.⁶

How will the Cavs handle him?

For all the talk about the matchup trouble the Warriors pose, Bogut is one player for whom the Cavs have a ready-made answer in Timofey Mozgov. This isn’t to say that Mozzie will dominate Bogut, but he is among the few players in the league who can look Bogut in the eye and body him on the block.

The Cavs would love to pull Bogut away from the rim and get him entangled in pick-and-roll situations, but the Warriors do their best to avoid that. Neither Mozgov nor Tristan Thompson are especially dangerous pick-and-pop players, so Bogut will often hang back, especially if Golden State dares LeBron to beat them from the outside.

It seems strange to say given Bogut’s defensive talent, but I think the Cavs should try to keep him on the court as much as possible, and the way to do that is to keep crashing the boards like they’ve done for the past month. Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes have banged against bigger guys all season long, but Steve Kerr might be coaxed into playing Bogut more if the Cavs can wreak enough havoc on the glass. This would hardly spell easy victory — again, Bogut is one of the best defensive players in the league — but forcing Golden State to play more traditionally would at least slow their pace and neuter some of their offensive dynamism.

LeBron excepted, the Cavs do not have any clearcut advantages against Golden State. But if Mozgov and the Cavs frontcourt can get over on the big man from down under, they will greatly improve their chances of pulling off the upset.

1. Amare Stoudemire appears to have given him a light shove as well. [↩]
2. Golden State finished first in defensive rating as a team, allowing 98.2 points per 100 possessions. [↩]
3. Those who played in at least 55 games for at least 20 minutes per game [↩]
4. Bogut gets annoyed when people confuse the sports: “I encourage people that are ignorant to other countries that exist in the world to actually go on the Internet and look it up,” he said in the Times piece. “It’s quite frustrating.” [↩]
5. Say, Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Bogut. [↩]
6. God forbid Kendrick Perkins sees the floor against him. [↩]