NBA Finals Preview: Becoming Whole

I‘m not normally a philosophizer, but the Internet informs me that it was Aristotle who first said “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” That’s the lasting image in my head with regard to this Cleveland Cavaliers squad, one that was dead to rights according to many against both Chicago and Atlanta, only to dispatch of both teams and make it to the NBA Finals as the East’s representative.

On paper, part by part, the Cavaliers in their current state do not match up well with the Golden State Warriors. But, it’s the whole, the adversity faced, and the intangibles that have me thinking it’s foolish to discount the Cavaliers now even against their most formidable foe. I already broke down how each team has defended the other’s MVP from earlier in the season, but let’s focus on some of the other storylines ahead of Thursday night’s Game 1.

The arc benchmark – You probably know that the Cavaliers and Warriors are both teams that make a living behind the three-point line. In the postseason, they rank first (Golden State – 11.5) and second (Cleveland – 10.4) in three-point makes per game. What you may not know, however, is that these two rank first and second (Cleveland – 28.1 percent, Golden State – 31.0 percent) in opponent three-point percentage in the playoffs. The Cavaliers faced two regular season top ten three-point shooting teams by percentage (Atlanta – second, Chicago – 10th), while the Warriors faced the fourth-ranked Pelicans and the Rockets, who made and took the most threes while coming in 14th in success rate.

An overwhelming chunk of the Golden State trifectas in the playoffs have come from the Splash Brothers (118 of 173 – 68 percent). Conversely, the supporting cast for the Cavaliers leads the charge from deep, and there has been strength in numbers (Smith – 36 makes, Shumpert – 25, Dellavedova – 18, Jones – 18). Only 37 makes have come from Cleveland’s two All-Stars. Kyrie’s managed to shoot 48 percent in his reduced attempts, and LeBron’s woes from the three-point line (12-for-68) are well-documented.

As a result, an interesting contrast will unfold. The Warriors will undoubtedly invite LeBron to beat them with his jump shot, hoping that he’ll elect to shoot from deep rather than getting in the post or attacking the basket to find higher percentage teammates on the perimeter. On the other hand, the Cavs will invite anyone outside of the Splash surname to take contested threes as their deep threats after those two have been minimal thus far (Draymond Green – 33.7 percent regular season, 26.4 percent postseason; Harrison Barnes – 40.5 percent regular season but just 32.4 percent postseason; and Andre Iguodala – 34.9 percent regular season and 31.9 percent in the playoffs).

Who racks up more threes between the Splash Bros. and the Cavalier ready-for-primetime players? How about between LeBron/Kyrie and Barnes/Iguodala/Green?

“Nothing is given. Everything is earned.” – In this case, I’m talking about points off turnovers and fastbreak points for the breakneck Warriors. The Bay Area boys ranked seventh in turnover percentage and first in pace. In the postseason, they are at the head of the class with 21.6 fastbreak points per contest. Curry and Thompson are both lethal in the open floor from long range, and one of Green’s strengths is undoubtedly rim-running to get shots at the rim. Slowing down the Warriors and forcing them to see a body between them and the rim at all times will go a long way for the Cavs.

The Cavaliers have faced three teams that did not look to run much, and they’re appropriately allowing just 9.8 fastbreak points per game. It’s even more critical for the Cavaliers to throw the clamps on those two areas because the wine and gold will not be able to properly reciprocate. Cleveland just doesn’t create many of those opportunities for themselves (7.4 fastbreak points, 13.6 points off turnovers).

The team that did the best job of slowing Golden State down was the Memphis Grizzlies. Even with an ailing Mike Conley Jr. and Tony Allen in the backcourt, the Grizz held the Warriors to 90 and 89 points in Games 2 and 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. The Warriors would not score more than 101 points until the closeout Game 6, when they notched 108. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have won five games in the postseason while scoring under 100 points. The wine and gold have allowed more than 101 points just once, which was 111 in the overtime win against Atlanta. In short, I think games played in double digits will be to the Cavs’ benefit.

Double-T REBs – To this point, nobody has been able to stop Tristan Thompson on the offensive glass (4.0 offensive rebounds per game), and I don’t think Golden State has the personnel to do so either. When the two starting lineups are out there, Harrison Barnes is either going to have to deal with James in the post or Thompson on the glass. Barnes is a hard-working defender, but he’s not Draymond Green, and Green cannot be in two places at once. When the Cavaliers stay big with Timofey Mozgov and Andrew Bogut on the floor, this is a matchup I like for the Cavaliers.

Not to be overlooked is the fact that Tristan has reached double digit scoring in seven of his last eight games. If he can cancel out the scoring of a Green, Barnes, or Iguodala, that’s a huge advantage.

Human Klay – Klay Thompson is a terrific player, but Steph Curry’s unbelievable postseason has covered for the fact that Thompson’s scoring is actually down in the playoffs.Thompson’s scoring output is down from 21.7 in the regular season to 19.7 in the playoffs. In the last two rounds, he’s posted just 17.8 points per game. In five games, he’s had two or less three-point makes.

The Cavaliers won’t be able to stop Thompson, but holding him under 20 points would be a huge victory. Coach David Blatt has a tough decision make. Does he deploy his two best perimeter defenders on Curry or Thompson when only one of them is in the game? While Curry is by far the more important player to track, perhaps more of an impact could be made by checking Curry’s running mate. Think the Teague/Korver strategy prior to the Atlanta shooting guard’s injury. And of course, there’s the fact that Thompson will be seeing his first game action since taking that vicious knee from Trevor Ariza to the side of the head.

Tens and twenties – The Cavaliers have had no shortage of players able to rise to the occasion and contribute with double digit scoring efforts (47 player-games with 10-plus points between the seven rotation players besides James in the Cavs’ 14 playoff games). But, what I’m really looking for is those 20-plus point performances that lift the team and make the other team pay for their heavy attention to LeBron. The Cavs have received five such performances in these playoffs (Irving three times, Shumpert and Smith once each). LeBron has the ability to win two or maybe even three games in a series by himself, but it could be those one or two unforeseen efforts that tip the scales. Irving, Smith, and Shumpert are the prime candidates to deliver such a show.

Prediction: It’s the same roadmap as it was with Atlanta. The Cavaliers need to win one of the first two out west to feel like they have a good chance. From there, it’s a matter of holding serve at home with a rabid fan base that is starved for a title. I think a back-and-forth, closely contested series favors the Cavaliers. They’ve faced more adversity, they’ve had to find more ways to win, and they’re a team galvanized under their leader and his immense Finals experience. It won’t be easy, but Memphis didn’t have the offensive chops to hang with Golden State, and Houston didn’t have the backcourt personnel to slow Curry or Thompson. The Cavaliers have both, even with their diminished roster.

Larry O’Brien or bust. LOBOB. This team’s on a mission. #CavsInSix