Kevin Love is getting naked: Cavs forward to be in ESPN The Magazine’s Body Issue
June 22, 2015R.I.P. Johnny Football: 2012-2015
June 22, 2015With the playoffs over and the draft upon us, it’s officially silly season time again in the NBA. While the summer of 2015 isn’t likely to be as earth-shattering for the Cleveland Cavaliers as last July, there are still an awful lot of decisions to make.
Just three weeks ago, I wrote an FAQ on some basic starting points for the Cavs and their salary situation. I’d highly recommend checking out that post, along with my January explainer on Kyrie Irving’s max deal, and my February article on Brendan Haywood’s odd contract. Trying to explain NBA salary math isn’t easy. And there are many more questions that keep popping up.
Today, I’m focusing again on the stipulations of trading Haywood’s contract and how it could apply to a certain long-time Miami Heat star named Dwyane Wade. If you have any further salary questions at all, feel free to share in the comments or over on Twitter at @WFNYJacob.
Q: Before going into specific players and specific scenarios, what does the Cavaliers current salary cap situation look like again?
A: As I mentioned last time, the Cavs project to be well, well over the salary cap. This shouldn’t be news to anyone. And that’s even the case right now, before any new contracts hit the books for any of the team’s players. Below is an updated screenshot from my Cavs salary scenario spreadsheet that I mentioned last time1.
This screenshot includes “default” settings of the qualifying offers for Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, and Matthew Dellavedova; the player options for LeBron James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, and Mike Miller; the all-but-guaranteed team option for Timofey Mozgov; and the oft-discussed unguaranteed contract of Brendan Haywood. Previously, I had omitted Haywood’s contract. I’ve left it here to show the other side of the coin.
The salaries for these 13 players add up to $102 million. That’s about $34.9 million over the cap ($67.1 million) and about $20.4 million over the tax line ($81.6 million). Thus, the Cavs would receive an additional $46.5 million tax bill — as you can also calculate on my CBA Tax Calculator. So, as I’ve been stating for months, prior to any new contracts or extensions, the Cavs are going to be paying an incredible amount of salary-related money next season. I’d probably put the odds at 50/50 that they eventually break Brooklyn’s record $90.1 million tax bill from the 2013-14 season.
Q: So the Cavs will be well over the cap and will be paying millions in taxes, you’ve said that millions of times. What does that mean as far as how they can acquire players this summer?
A: Unsurprisingly, it won’t be easy! Unlike last summer when the Cavaliers actually created the real cap space — through the Jarrett Jack trade, etc. — to sign LeBron James as an outright free agent to a maximum contract, there will be no such wiggle room this time around. You might counter and say, “What if LeBron and Love just opt out? Or if the Cavs don’t retain Tristan Thompson? Or Shumpert or J.R. Smith leave?” Those won’t help much either!
The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement has something known as “cap holds” for all of these potential free agents2. Until those free agents sign officially (either with the existing team or a new team), or their rights are renounced by the existing team, they have salary amounts that exist on the books. So even if LeBron or Love opt out, they’d still have figures — proportional to their 2014-15 contract — taking up potential cap room for the Cavs. Adding up Kyrie Irving’s 2015-16 salary, Anderson Varejao’s salary, Mozgov’s team option, and the cap holds for LeBron/Love, and the Cavs already are at $69.8 million. That’s over the cap. There’d be no cap room.
There is no logical situation where the Cavaliers retain LeBron and Love — even if they both opt out — and ever have salary cap space this summer. It won’t happen3. And that’s before even getting into Tristan Thompson’s assumed long-term extension and his large cap hold that also exists on the books. As an over-the-cap team, the Cavs then have only certain methods for acquiring new players. And as a team that will end up being well over $4 million over the tax line (the NBA’s “apron” line), they have to follow even more specific rules.
These “apron” rules include: Using the smaller taxpayer mid-level exception ($3.376 million in 2015-16), not being able to also use the biannual exception, not being able to receive players in sign-and-trade deals, and only being able to receive up to 125 percent of outgoing player salaries in a trade. All of these rules will become very important in discussing potential personnel scenarios. Of course, like any team, the Cavs still will be able to offer minimum salary contracts and can only hold 15 players on their roster.
Q: Everyone seems to be talking about it lately. But how can the Cavaliers actually acquire Dwyane Wade this summer? What are some of the possibilities?
A: It’s not going to be easy, by any stretch of the imagination, as you might expect from the previous answer. Wade, the 33-year-old undoubted future Hall of Famer, owns a $16.1 million player option for the 2015-16 season. If you recall, he signed a similar — albeit much smaller — deal as LeBron James signed last summer, giving him ideal year-to-year flexibility with the rapidly increasing cap environment.
If Wade opts out of his contract, there are only two methods by which the Cavaliers could acquire him. These are using the veteran’s minimum (about $1.5 million for a 10-plus year veteran in 2015-16) or the taxpayer mid-level exception mentioned ($3.376 million). For Wade, this would mean taking a very, very significant pay cut. Miami reportedly initially offered a deal just under $10 million annually. Other teams, such as the Los Angeles Lakers, might be willing to offer even more. A starting salary under $3.5 million is laughable for a player of Wade’s caliber and fame. He might not be reliable for 2,000 minutes anymore, but it’d still be shocking to see him take such a deal.
Recall from above that the Cavaliers, acting as a team over the apron, cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade deal. So Wade also could not sign a new contract with Miami and then simultaneously be traded to Cleveland. If these rumors are actually serious, he’d have to play next season for the Cavs making $16.1 million, $3.376 million, or about $1.5 million. Those are the only three options in total.
Q: So you’re saying the more realistic scenario is that Wade opts in to his $16.1 million contract and a trade ensues. Could it just be Haywood-for-Wade straight up, then?
A: Unfortunately, no. As a team acting over the apron, the Cavaliers can only receive up to 125 percent of outgoing player salaries in a deal. Brendan Haywood’s odd unguaranteed deal for the 2015-16 season, which vests on August 1, is about $10.5 million. In a one-for-one deal, that means the maximum salary amount the Cavaliers could receive in return is about $13.1 million. That’s far less than Wade’s player option.
Thus, the Cavs would have to send about $2.4 million more worth of salaries over to Miami to make the trade math work. They’d have to be creative about how they find that $2.4 million since no player on the roster, besides Mike Miller — which would be a cruel bit of irony — makes around that amount. Matthew Dellavedova could be signed-and-traded (the Cavs can trade away such players, but just can’t receive them). Joe Harris and this year’s two signed draft picks could all be packaged together, 30 days after the draft. There are some options, although they aren’t that pretty.
Q: All right, the Wade scenarios are not easy, that makes more sense now. But what about other trade options involving Brendan Haywood? What’s the minimum a team has to send over?
A: The answer about a minimum contract is not necessarily easy because a few select NBA teams still remain significantly under the salary cap, even with cap holds and roster charges. That means that they could receive Brendan Haywood for nothing, and create a traded player exception in exchange for his unguaranteed salary amount. This could create a cycle of Brendan Haywood-like scenarios — the Cavs would have another potential trade asset to use over the next 12 months. Similar to Haywood’s deal, such a trade exception would likely be difficult to use and would have serious tax ramifications. But this might be the most likely possibility, outside of just a release by July 31.
For a non-taxpaying team4, with outgoing salaries up to $9.8 million, the maximum they could receive in return is 150 percent of the outgoing figure. So conceivably, at a minimum, a team could trade about $7 million worth of player salaries in exchange for Haywood’s $10.5 million unguaranteed deal. This is perhaps the standard minimum, with $13.1 million as the max.
So if you’re looking for dream scenarios to play around with ESPN’s Trade Machine or RealGM’s Trade Checker, the general ground rules of a Haywood-only trade involve total combined incoming salaries between $7-13.1 million. This is what makes Dwyane Wade’s situation, and his $16.1 million player option, pretty difficult when you consider all of the complicated salary math.
- Want a copy of my spreadsheet? Feel free to email me at udjrosen@gmail.com. I’m always happy to share my files with folks. Often times, you’ll pick up errors or add new scenarios that I missed entirely. [↩]
- Last year, the Cavs had to worry more about “roster charges” instead. These take place when you don’t have 12 players signed or with a cap hold. It’s simply just a placeholder of a minimum salary contract, keeping the math rolling. [↩]
- OK, fine, if LeBron/Love both take salaries under the maximum, then sure, the Cavaliers could find a way to wiggle out some cap space. I’m assuming that won’t happen. Even if it does, you’d still have to figure in Tristan Thompson. [↩]
- Most of the NBA currently seems to be residing in this limbo of over-the-cap and under-the-tax. Perhaps, a lot of teams will see this year, before all of the massive salary cap increases, as a potential opportunity to jump over the tax just once. As mentioned in previous posts, the league’s new “repeater” penalty carries very severe tax rates. Alternatively, as Matt Femrite has mentioned on Twitter, perhaps some teams will see the Cavs gigantic tax bill and want to stay just under the tax line so they can receive part of that distribution. [↩]
36 Comments
Good.
I mean, unless we’re now *trying* to fill the roster with guys that will be hurt come playoff time…
The Cavs are just playing the percentages right? At least two star players of the four total are likely to be healthy come playoff time! Yes?
This is some darn good research, Jacob. I’m not a huge fan of Dwyane Wade at this point in his career, but he does fit the need for another playmaker. I’d be more interested in him if he was willing to be the team’s 6th man, but that seems as unlikely as somehow being able to sign him. The Cavs desperately need someone who can create other than LeBron and Kyrie… that much was exposed by the Warriors. Griffin said he is looking in the 26-30 year old range, so from that perspective it seems like Wade would not be the man he is looking to find.
Thanks for the clear info Jacob. It’s been fun debating whether or not I would even want him, but after reading this, like a cow’s opinion, it appears moo. He’s not sacrificing $10M, and we prolly don’t have the assets to swing a trade. That is, unless Lebron says “jump,” in which case, it’s been nice getting to know you Joe Harris, best of luck in Miami.
If LeBron wants Wade, I can see the Cavs trying to trade Haywood and Harris for him. But, Miami is not gonna do a sign-and-trade unless Wade forces their hand. Even then, I don’t see Miami wanting to help the Cavs out after losing LeBron to them last year.
When my mind is clear I intend to try and follow Jacob’s NBA nerdfest cap rules (I had the whole “apron” thing down 6 months ago, only to have it leak out in all the playoff excitement). But assume the Cavs wanted him, can’t imagine Wade would relocate to the midwest at a big salary reduction. He opted out of his huge option year in 2014, presumably in the hope LeBron was staying and the Heat would get help. Guessing he wants to maximize his last pay days after leaving so much on the table and then not even making the playoffs.
(But crap, how great would Wade be leading a second unit at about 20-22 minutes a game)
Great, clear post.
I know the NBA is a different beast, but after years of (rightful) complaining about how $=W in MLB, I’m admittedly troubled by the idea of the Cavs being on their way to winning a championship and some other GM noting “well, look, if we had unlimited funds we could also try to put together a super-team like Cleveland has done”. At least the NBA has these ridiculously high tax penalties that make it somewhat more justified than MLB had in the past, but still…
Great job Jacob I saw Terry Pluto linked to your previous breakdown of the Cavaliers salary structure on Twitter!
I would welcome Wade with open arms the problem is unless he is willing to come to Cleveland dirt cheap it’s not happening as we stand today. The ball will start to roll once Kevin Love decides what he’s doing. I heard 5 years for $100M is on the table from the Cavaliers.
Riley blocked Norris Cole from becoming a Cavalier twice I think hell has a better chance at freezing over before Miami ever lets Wade end up in Cleveland.
Its the leagues worst kept secret that Wade wants to retire a Cavalier. Better fanbase, not as humid weather, hotter chicks.
Hah. You should have just written a three word article. “It’s not happening.”
Wade could opt in to $16 million, but he might be leaving another 16 million+ on the table if he did so. I imagine he wants a 3 or 4 year deal with $10 million as the minimum.
Upvote for a smart point and for working “it’s a moo point” in there.
On one hand the idea of the spacing we’ll have on offense in lineups with Wade + TT/Mozgov + LBJ on the floor makes me nervous.
On the other hand Wade is still a very good player when his workload is kept in check, and the idea of having him play somewhat of a starting 2-guard/backup PG role is very, very interesting, especially if we keep Shump and JR who could realistically take care of the wing positions on nights that Wade needed to rest.
In fact I’m starting to dream of a 9-man playoff rotation that looks something like this:
Kyrie – 35 minutes
Wade – 28 minutes
LBJ – 38 minutes
Love – 32 minutes
Moz – 22 minutes
TT – 35 minutes
Shump – 25 minutes (2 shoulders)
JR – 18 minutes
Andy – 7 minutes
A couple of things:
1. I’m projecting that someone gives Delly a dumb contract. We’re in no shape to overpay for him.
2. Wow, look at the flexibility we’d have to sustain an injury, or the ability to give someone a night off during the regular season, or yank anyone (cough cough, JR) who’s having an off-night or playing ineffectively.
3. I keep looking at the fact that we should have 4 bigs healthy next year (Tristan, Mozgov, Love, Andy) and wondering how we keep all 4. Particularly when LBJ is most effective playing the 4… is it at all possible that we’ll resign Love just to trade him in January after he proves he’s healthy? I don’t think you’re getting out of Varejao’s contract at this point, especially with his injury problems…
It just doesn’t seem practical to go after Wade. The guy creates points in the same way LeBron, Thompson, Mosgov and Andy do…close to the basket. I think if you sign him, you get a physical driving-to-the-basket scorer with a lot of miles on his legs.
I really just think they need better 2nd string level depth. Assuming they can retain LeBron, Love, Thompson and Mosgov, they can look for a better backup PG in a trade or the draft. I would prefer the draft with the controlled salary obligations.
I was very impressed with Delly in the post-season, but he’s not a big scoring threat, and defenses don’t respect his court vision. A draft pick at PG gets you talent at a better value…if a good PG is available.
Other than that, this team is championship caliber, assuming they’re healthy. No need to sell the farm for Wade. From where I sit, it just looks like they have about 3 too many Mike Millers on this team…it’s just that they’re named Jones, Delly and Shumpert.
I like me waitingfornextyear ………… ———Keep Reading
What about LeBron taking a pay cut to add Wade like Wade did in 2010?
It wouldn’t work, unless a very, very significant paycut. Adding in Love, Tristan and Kyrie to the picture, along with existing salaries for Varejao and Mozgov, makes this task much more difficult than it was for the 2010 Heat.
Jacob – this is so great. Super informative and absolutely over the top. I thank you for making my offseason so much less painful. Or more painful, depending on your point of view!
I’d think 4 would be the minimum if he stays in Miami. He’s probably looking for 4 years and $60million.
NOT happening (Wade). don’t get your hopes up (even though I’d LOVE to see it).
Don’t try to mess with Jacob, Mr. Kannon.
Love the double standard. The Cavs signed and traded Lebron to Miami, but Riley wouldn’t reciprocate? Yes, Gilbert was stupid for publishing his “letter”, but obviously other owners and GMs have felt the very same way (albeit not as publicly) and gotten no flak for it. Gilbert’s still being accused of “acting like a slave owner” by some idiots out there.
Yeah, the “ridiculously high tax penalties” are more about protecting the owner’s profit margins than anything else. The owner’s are just trying to protect themselves, not protect the game or prevent anyone else from buying championships. It’s tremendously ironic Gilbert was the biggest proponent of the same rules and penalties he’ll now be subjected to.
Yeah, everyone comes to Cleveland over Miami. The weather is just too damn humid in Miami.
No super star in his right mind should team with James if he wants to PLAY as James will not give them a chance. Remember, he plays all five positions by himself and maybe six including coaching.
…by the rules of horrible reporting and poor journalistic integrity: your article just stated that “There is no logical situation where the Cavaliers retain LeBron and Love.” Therefore, by your own reporting, the hope of Cleveland acquiring a title anywhere in the near future is cemented and no rebranding of WFNY is needed. Well done.
Cavs should sign and trade Kevin Love to Miami for Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade. Not sure if that would work but it would be beneficial to both teams.
Cavs would start:
PG: Irving
SG: Wade
SF: James
PF: Thompson
C: Whiteside
Miami would start:
PG: Napier
SG: Dragic
SF: Deng
PF: Love
C: Bosh
Both would have pretty solid starting 5s
why whiteside why not mozgov
Sure… give Miami two 1st round picks, two 2nd rounders, the right to swap picks next year, and a $15M trade exception. They’ll be happy to “reciprocate”.
Several problems with that:
1) Dragic is a PG (and Napier is useless).
2) Love and Bosh are both stretch 4’s.
3) Looking at salary/production, Whiteside is probably worth more than Love by himself
4) Miami won’t take on Love’s salary, they are clearing cap space for 2017
why in hell would they want to acquire Wade??????
they need to invest whatever money they have to spare under the cap in big men.
Except that we can’t trade any first round picks until 2020. So what you’re saying makes no sense. Zero. You’re just throwing crap at a wall.
No, you’re missing the point. Gilbert didn’t execute the sign and trade because he’s a nice guy and wanted to do Riley or James a favor. He did the sign and trade because he was over a barrel and the alternative was to get nothing in exchange for James. Miami sent a ton of assets to Cleveland – not for the player… he was a free agent… just for the ability to pay James a little bit more.
My point is, Cleveland would have to send a ton of assets Miami’s way in order to “reciprocate” in a sign and trade for Wade. I listed the 4 draft picks and the $15M exception because that’s exactly what Miami gave to Cleveland 4 years ago. As you so aptly pointed out, Cleveland doesn’t have the assets to do that right now.