Nonsense and Non Sequiturs: While We’re Waiting…
July 9, 2015Mo Williams in Players’ Tribune: It’s all about Cleveland winning a championship
July 9, 2015Attendance is an issue that tends to divide the fanbase, so it is a topic that I generally avoid. However, I had planned to write about the subject today even before WFNY’s TD returned to give us a season-ticket holder’s view of the current attendance issues. He did a wonderful job describing the renovations1 , ticket deals, and the fact that fans missed out on the reigning Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber doing his thing Tuesday. TD also did not let the organization nor the fans off the hook for what has devolved to the current condition.
In my opinion, the present status is disheartening as the series against the Houston Astros is on track to have the least amount of people ever for a July series at Jacobs/Progressive Field. Wednesday had the biggest crowd of the series thus far at just 15,255 people as the Cleveland Indians clinched the season series victory over the AL West leading Houston Astros with a thrilling 4-2 win.
July is typically a good month for Tribe attendance. The weather has warmed up, school is out, and people want something fun to do on their summer nights. Even when the Indians have entered July more than 10 games under .500, they have generally averaged more than 20,000 people per game in a series. Usually, they average more. However, in 2014, a mid-week series against the Seattle Mariners set the all-time low for a July series2 with 15,637 people per game. Sadly, the Indians are averaging just 13,197 in their current mid-week series against the Astros. At least 22,956 fans will need to walk through the gates on Thursday to avoid the all-time low attendance mark for July.
Yes, if the Indians start winning the AL Central every season behind a powerful offense as they did in the 1990s, then attendance would not be an issue. What worries me, however, is that the Indians have been struggling at the gate more in July the past two seasons than they did in 2008 and 2009, when they entered July well below .500 each year (10 and 18 games under .500, respectively)3 . Of course, those were the summers that the front office traded CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez, and may have forever changed the way the public views the organization.
While Carlos Carrasco, Michael Brantley, and Nick Hagadone — all acquired in those trades — are all key pieces of the current team, they were also atomic fireball candies unexpectedly shoved into the collective mouth of the fans during seasons which began with hope of competing for postseason berths. It was clear that the team would get much worse before there was any hope that it would get better. Plus, the absence of talent coming from the draft through 2007 meant there was little hope that the team could even be a surprise contender. And they weren’t (losing 93, 82, and 94 games in 2010, 2011, and 2012).
It was my hope that bringing the esteemed Terry Francona and splurging on Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher in 2013 would bring excitement and hope back to the fans. For one season, that was true. The Indians won 92 games, finished just a game back of the Detroit Tigers, and made the Wild Card game against the Tampa Bay Rays. They may have lost that playoff game, but it was in front of a packed house and fans seemed excited.
But that single season was not enough to dissipate the toxic culture between the front office and the fans. Even following that season up with an 85-win campaign was thoroughly disappointing as fans watched the Kansas City Royals overtake the Indians in the division and win the American League. The development of perhaps the best young group of starting pitchers in MLB has been overshadowed by Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn going from slightly disappointing to absolute anchors on the team’s payroll. The 2015 season has been frustrating even further as expectations of grandeur were stoked by the national media only to see the team start 7-14 in April and not be able to dig themselves out of that hole to this point.
Strangely, the fans have been calling for stability from the Cleveland Browns as they have continually cycled through quarterbacks, coaches and front offices. The Cleveland Cavaliers similarly cycled until LeBron James came back home. On the other hand, the Indians have held a steady hand. The front office has made some changes (Brad Grant taking over the MLB Amateur Draft in 2008, complete overhaul of player development in the past few years, etc.), but the people in charge have remained, and those people have locked in the current team of young talent through the foreseeable future.
I guess I am just in a weird place. I get that the Indians have only made the playoffs twice in the past 14 years. However, I see the recent season records on the upswing, I see the young talent both on the team and coming through the system locked in and trending up too, and I believe in the player development shift to the advanced techniques with Driveline Baseball, Texas Baseball Ranch, and others.
But really, I just love baseball and the Cleveland Indians. And I’m sad more fans aren’t at the ballpark enjoying the team.
Keys of the Game
Evan Gattis Home Run:
Given that the only runs the Houston Astros have scored the past two nights were due to Evan Gattis launching home runs into the standing room only section past left field, this play would have warranted its own section by itself. But there’s more: the pitch that Gattis hit for a home run happened to double as the highest pitch hit out of any park this season by any player. Trevor Bauer threw the pitch a foot above the strike zone and it was somewhere in the vicinity of Gattis’ chin level. Here’s a graph:
And, here is what Bauer had to say about it:
Trevor Bauer, on Evan Gattis and the highest pitch hit for a home run this season: "I love Gattis. His approach is awesome."
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustFG_) July 9, 2015
I am assuming that Bauer is noting the Gattis approach of “See ball, swing as hard as possible at ball, and hope contact is sometimes made.”
Trevor Bauer was what many analysts like to call effectively wild on Wednesday. He was spinning pitches into the dirt; he was throwing pitches well above the strike zone. But he was not throwing the ball too far inside or outside, which allowed Yan Gomes to stop or block the crazier pitches. Honestly, Gomes is likely exhausted after his night of chasing down everything, and he did a great job with it despite Jose Altuve being able to advance from first to third due to some of those initial offerings.
I mean look at that spray chart. There are pitches off the graph. Crazy. But despite those pitches being all over the place, Bauer threw strikes when he needed to throw strikes and did not walk a batter, while striking out nine (including two on pitches in the dirt).
Good Guy:
David Murphy generally faces the right-handed pitchers in the Murphburn platoon (with Ryan Raburn facing the left-handed pitchers), and that platoon has been incredibly successful, as no hitter other than All-Star Jason Kipnis himself can match their production.
Murphy got the start against Houston right-hander Dan Straily, hitting a double in the fourth inning to move Michael Brantley to third base, which led to Carlos Santana knocking Brantley in with a groundout.
However, when the game was on the line, left-hander Joe Thatcher took the mound. Terry Francona normally would go to his bench there and put Raburn into the game. On Wednesday, Murphy stayed in and nearly hit a home run.
The ball seemed to get caught up in the air and kept traveling, which confused Preston Tucker just enough to let it hit off the wall, and Murphy had his second double of the night. More importantly, he knocked in Francisco Lindor (who also doubled) and Brantley (who was intentionally walked) for the go-ahead and insurance runs.
1-for-10 with RISP:
Murphy had that one hit and it was enough to win the game. Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana also had an RBI each as they had groundouts that pushed in runs. However, yet again, the Indians put runners in position to score and could not get that one big hit to actually score runs.
Now, I suppose it is better to have 10 chances to knock in runs and finally capitalize than it is to only have four chances as was the case for the Astros. But this is a perplexing, seemingly unsolvable riddle for this season. Perhaps the batters should put blinders on so they cannot see anyone on base? Perhaps the on-deck batters can go into the tunnel and Francona can tell them the bases are empty? I don’t know what to do at this point, but the team continues to hit the ball well before runners get on base, and terribly afterwards.
Key Moment Scorecard:
Houston Astros: 2
Cleveland Indians: 2
Old Friends; Help or Haunt
Luis Valbuena, Tony Sipp, and Roberto Hernandez all watched this game.
The Nine
Jason Kipnis: Triple in the first inning, standard good defense and good decision-making (he almost thought about throwing to Lindor in the eighth, but he wisely threw to Santana to record that last out). Just another all-around good game for Kipnis.
Francisco Lindor: Rarely does a player come up and immediately become a leader, but that is what we are witnessing with Lindor. He is the guy congratulating Brantley after his diving catch, the guy that is waving Brantley home in the eighth inning and telling him to get down. Lindor is the guy constantly talking to teammates with a smile on his face, yet not going overboard with theatrics. He is the coolest guy in the room and everyone seems to want to just fall in line behind him.
It’s weird to say that about a guy who is struggling to hit at the MLB level thus far, but it’s what is happening.
Michael Brantley: Did you see that diving play in left field? I guess that back is feeling better. He had another solid game and looks to have shaken out of his mini-slump.
David Murphy: The most underrated guy on the team. Hopefully, not for long.
Carlos Santana: What was that at the 35-second mark in the Bauer video above? Oh, just Carlos Santana making another really nice play. Over the past month, he has started making more of those plays and has been a good fielder. He still needs to prove it over a longer period of time, but the recent results have definitely been promising.
Yan Gomes: I will excuse his 0-for-3 night with all the work he had to do behind the plate. And, he gave us a fun highlight as well. It’s not a blooper if you wind up catching it.
Hot potato, Hot pah-tah-toe, either way, I got it!
Brandon Moss: Two strikeouts, one walk. Moss continues to be our three true outcome hitter.
Giovanny Urshela: Urshela struggled at the plate and did not get his standard one hit for the game, but he continues to demonstrate his speed in the field and make most plays seem routine.
Michael Bourn: Lonnie Chisenhall started for the Columbus Clippers in right field. Interesting since he is now blocked at third base by Urshela. Someone is likely going to need to replace Mike Aviles next year as the super-utility guy and Chisenhall looks to be putting in the work. Of course, he might be athletic enough to play center field. At least as well as it is currently being played.
The Arms
Trevor Bauer: Always great to listen to Bauer talk about the rest of the pitchers on staff.
Trevor Bauer, on the Indians' historic rotation (first team in MLB history to have four SP w/ 100+ K before ASB): pic.twitter.com/664GoToNYS
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustFG_) July 9, 2015
Cody Allen: Bryan Shaw received the closing opportunity on Tuesday due to Allen having a stiff back. Many wondered if Allen might need to be shut down until after the All-Star break due to having that opportunity coming up for rest and not wanting to mess with a balky back.
However, Allen shut down any of those concerns with another brilliant performance in closing out yet another perfect ninth inning by an Indians pitcher on just nine pitches.
- The Corner, The District, Kids Zone [↩]
- Post-Municipal Stadium [↩]
- Let me be clear, I am not saying that fans should just show up en masse for a struggling team, but I am surprised that fewer fans are showing up for this team than they had for a team that started Trevor Crowe for 122 games and had Mitch Talbot with the second best ERA in the rotation, which is what happened in 2010. [↩]
30 Comments
What’s the average attendance in the last 40 years when the Browns are around? I’m guessing it’s not far off what they’re getting now. Plus trading away consecutive Cy Young winners isn’t a good look. Defensible in some ways, but the rationalizations are way above a casual or interested fan level. Too “inside baseball”, as it’s called.
Great to see you posting, man.
And, yes, exactly. They were the right calls for baseball, but the FO completely under-estimated what it would do to the perception of the team (and trading a teary-eyed Victor Martinez might have been worse – he wanted to be here for his career).
I hate to include the Muni attendance numbers because those were some awful times. 38 years without a playoff appearance or really even a contention run for a playoff appearance and the Muni was a terrible place to watch baseball. Fond memories and all from my childhood, but yuck.
And, I would list out the Jacob’s era, but between the newness of Jacob’s Field, absence of Browns, and crazy offensive contending teams, it’s just sort of depressing to list side-by-side.
As you can see, despite the team being more in the mold of the 2005-2008 teams (potentially contending but with some obvious flaws too), they are trending downward from even the 2009-2012 teams (known to be terrible from Opening Day). That is what concerns me the most.
Attendance in the Dolan era (2001 – present) with MLB rank in parenthesis
2015 17,042 (29th – Miami at 21,588 in 28th)
2014 18,428 (29th)
2013 19,661 (28th)
2012 19,797 (29th)
2011 22,726 (24th)
2010 17,435 (dead last)
2009 22,492 (25th)
2008 27,122 (22nd)
2007 28,448 (21st)
2006 24,666 (25th)
2005 24,861 (24th)
2004 22,400 (25th)
2003 21,358 (24th)
2002 32,307 (12th)
2001 39,694 (4th)
I used to be watching the Div standings, but I will keep my eyes on the WC standings more. Would be nice to get this thing within 2 before the break
“On Paper,” Oakland is actually a really tough match up for the Indians (coincidentally, Houston is a good match up, which is a big part of us being 4-2 against them this year despite them breaking out).
And, 2GB might not be feasible. 5.5GB of the Twins with only 4 games before the break. We’d have to sweep and they cannot just lose out because they are playing a 4-game set with Detroit who is also ahead of us.
I knew it was just a matter of time before the attendance issue came back into being vogue around this place but honestly two playoff appearances one being one game in 14 years and you want to blame the fans just as much, c’mon man!
But like I said yesterday the shame of it all is there are some solid players to get behind on this team led by the starting rotation. Last night’s win was a perfect example of two things. The first being the collection of talent. However the second is what I have been saying for years: a win requires this collection of talent to all perform together including doing the little things in order to win. I truly believe this is why you can see such polar extremes day in and day out. One day they pitch a shutout. The next day they don’t score. The next day the defense rears it’s ugly head. The next day nobody hits a homerun again. Which brings me to another point I have been saying for years. The lack of a bona fide homerun hitter who can with one swing cover up all of the little missed opportunities is absolutely 100% making this offense have to work harder. There’s no easy inning. And as a result much of the fallout is landing on Carlos Santana. But what do I know.
MLB needs to add another wildcard!
Consistency means nothing. You shouldn’t stay in an abusive relationship because it is a relationship. The FO has failed to produce results for the better part of 2 decades and their SABRmetrics driven roster has failed for that duration.
You have good rational and reasoned arguments as to why fans *should be* paying as much, if not more, attention to the Tribe as opposed to the Browns.
But facts like a better winning percentage (.450ish vs. .333ish), more playoffs in last ten years (2 vs. 0), more FO stability, etc…doesn’t sizzle to the eyes of Casual Fan. And you’re right, the fact that it’s July and there’s no other show in town now, is damning.
Sorry dude, truly wish it wasn’t so that we’ve got empty seats. But like we talked about yesterday, the Indians will have to actually make some impactful changes to their roster, peddle much harder, juggle some balls and generate some excitement before Casual Fan shows up.
Winning a title wouldn’t hurt, and then we’ll have to complain about Bandwagon Fan right?!
Where did I blame the fans? I am allowed to be sad that a mediocre team with some really fun players to watch is not drawing as well as teams that started Trevor Crowe and Brent Lillibridge.
I am not assigning blame and in fact detailed out some of the reasons that I think it is the case.
Throughout sure there wasn’t one specific sentence but the whole tenor starting with
TD also did not let the organization nor the fans off the hook for what has devolved to the current condition
and you go on to interweave your own opinion. I’m not saying your wrong I’m simply saying the lack of fan attendance starts and ends with the Indians, period. They started losing fans and frankly haven’t done a real good job in getting them back renovations included.
Honestly, I was not even trying to state whether or not they “should” be paying attention, just trying to report on the fact that they are not and listing out some reasons why I think that might be the case.
Fair enough and some is probably boiled over from yesterdays discussion as well. I really did attempt to not place blame. It’s a bad situation regardless.
It seems that trying to draw a line with the fans demanding stability about the Browns, and still supporting the team v. the Indians and their stability is pretty shaky.
Stability for the Browns is needed simply because they’ve been a basket case of an organization (which has failed greatly for many years). The fans want a culture to actually take hold now, and I think it’s a great idea.
The Indians, however, have had largely the same regime for, what, getting close to 15 years? Stability is great if it yields results…and, well….
Further compounding the problems the Tribe has are the fact that after those periods of brief excitement, the FO and the owner, after having been *so close* to something special, typically decide to sit on their hands instead of make a real move to improve the team. So, you end up with an underwhelmed, unsurprised, and largely cynical fan base that isn’t interested in “well, the players just need to play better” when the team starts 7-14 in April.
I love the Indians, and baseball is easily my favorite sport, but I can’t get behind the organization fully based on the years and years of nonsense. Don’t give me Russell Branyan and tell me he’s Roger Maris. I’m not buying it.
It is bad perhaps I’m reading into your comments based on yesterday as well I don’t know. I do agree that fans are missing out but honestly I can’t blame them. I have to keep saying it because for me it’s all that has to be said: 14 years and 2 playoff appearances. This front office is so overrated and has the Dolan’s under some kind of mind spell that I don’t see an answer. Worst yet is when you add in Terry Francona and his pledge to stay as long as the front office is in place.
It depends if those consistently in charge are learning, improving and adjusting or not. Baseball tends to have more stability than other pro-sports just due to the nature of the minor leagues. The Indians have changed over their development system with Eric Binder over the past couple of years and I would really like to see them see it out.
Then, add in that they have had improved results the past few seasons, the core is locked up through 2020, and they “seem” to be drafting better as well (or developing better), and there are reasons for optimism.
Granted, I also completely understand the frustration. Waiting is painful and when they do things like keep Mirabelli, well, it isn’t a good look.
It all comes back to the front office for me not even ownership. Honestly I don’t understand how the Dolan’s have allowed their team to be hijacked by a mediocre group but more specifically Mark Shapiro. When the Dolan’s gave them a pile of cash the front office rewarded them/fans with Swisher and Bourn. On the surface this looked great I mean finally this organization was spending unfortunately what got was two used up players but man it sure looked good. Swisher was nothing but a PR stunt I’m convinced of it. Anyone who followed baseball knew who he was and how overpaid he was going to be we just let the whole Buckeye pride thing cloud our heads. Bourn on the other hand, man, what a disappointment, I’m guilty I thought he’d bring some excitement instead the opposite happened. I’m not the GM tho. There was a reason Bourn went unsigned. That should have been clue #1. Oh well.
The core that has missed the playoffs the last three years being locked up is not a cause of great excitement to me. Consistency for the sake of consistency should not be the goal. If they actually make some moves to make it a core++ then Woohoo! But nothing in the past 15 years has led me to believe we are about to break the pattern.
“There was a reason Bourn went unsigned.”
I get your other reasoning, but you have been on this case for awhile and it’s important to note that he was unsigned because he had a QO attached to his name meaning a team needed to give away a 1st round pick if they signed him. Except, the Indians 1st round pick was protected (top10) and they had already given up their 2nd for Swisher, so they only had to give up a 3rd round pick.
Yes, Bourn was overpaid and most knew it from day1 but hoped he’d provide more than he obviously has done.
and, Swisher was actually the one that I expected to stay relevant longer. non-speed reliant hitters tend to age a bit better. but, no such luck.
Did someone say my name?!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwOtjruIEAAJtLo.jpg
Hey just so you know you don’t have to explain yourself or defend anything you gave your opinion just like me. It’s refreshing to have someone who takes the time to write something and write it well also post comments. I have long noticed how many “authors” have their work posted and never participate again. Kind of like throwing chum out into the water and then sitting back and watching. You do that but also get in the cage to participate. Sorry I’ve been watching “Shark Week” can you tell? But you get my point. I understand why “authors” don’t engage if I spent time writing something providing statistical evidence etc etc etc only to see it shredded I wouldn’t last a week. But then again maybe that’s why I’m not an “author” I’m just an apex predator waiting for his next meal!!!
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/whid.gif
Good point but I have a hard time believing the only reason Bourn went unsigned was because of losing a first round draft pick. I remember our debates on this as it pertained to the Indians and how I didn’t care if it cost them a #1 draft pick because frankly their history with #1 picks was atrocious. So I suppose losing a third rounder and a ton of money isn’t as bad as a first and a ton of money right?
I’m far more disappointed with Bourn I knew not to expect much from Swisher I just didn’t expect him to miss so many games because of injury. That’s even worse.
The core is young and not yet in their primes (for the most part). The rotation, some of the bullpen, Lindor, Urshela, Kipnis, Brantley, Santana, Gomes, R.Perez.
I believe it is a great base. Obviously, they will need more pieces as all teams do whether those come from the minors or external is yet to be seen. The minors have guys like Zimmer, Frazier, etc. that do appear promising, but we all know about prospects before they hit MLB.
appreciate it.
The other problem with prospects is development time. The “core” starts to be unlocked in 2018 right? So if we want to capitalize on them, you have 3-4 years to make it happen.
After the 2018 season (Michael Brantley), yes. But, again, most through 2020, including the entire 5-man starting rotation.
The Houston series has been cursed by bad weather. I suspect the walkups have approached zero.
This team has HUGELY under performed. It is not much fun watching our team score 2 or less runs. The roster structure is horrible and PATIENCE has tolerated lousy performance by a key individual while one who has been hitting has had to sit.
To me this season has been a clinic in how to p off the fan base.
Lindor has not hit well, but yes his lousy hitting requires patience perhaps the last 2 games were a positive sign (I do not think he should hit 2nd, but it is what it is).
If you are talking Santana, then I would point out that he is a league average hitter (which is a slump for him as he’s usually a very good hitter), but he has had some outstanding defense the past few weeks (a surprise, obviously he’s been working hard on it).
The team is among the best hitting in MLB with the bases empty, among the worst with runners on base. I don’t know how to explain it and haven’t found anyone that does. The answer is likely in the middle as we have seen over the past few series.
The roster structure in place was done with some obvious phasing in youth(frustrating . Last year was phase-I (pitching) and it has worked out rather well I think most would agree. This year is the infield and defensively it is working out well (Urshela is hitting allright, Lindor will hopefully come around but has some major work to do). Next year, the outfield is supposed to get phased in with Naquin, Holt, Zimmer, and eventually Frazier fighting to get time.
And, now we are learning Ramirez and Chisenhall are working hard to become utility options, which could be a boon. They are young and we won’t be counting on them as starters. Win/win.
I believe that the evolution of Lindor and Urshela will be a process that we will have to work through. JRam is hitting a ton at Columbus – Chiz not so much. Perhaps we will hit just enough with the great pitching staff to keep playoff hopes at least flickering all season. Somewhere out there I believe Swisher will make a reappearance in a mode sufficiently healthy to enable him to DH. To me is reemergence is the best hope we have to add a bat. If Murphy is traded at the deadline we know it will truly be “Wait for Next Year”. Perhaps a trade of Murphy would create a spot for either JRam or Chiz to return.
The biggest issue with our roster structure is too many DH players. Murphy, Raburn, Swisher, and Moss should all be DH. I don’t know what the FO was thinking there though they may have just realized Swish would miss a huge chunk with both his knees hurting.
Swish might be the best bet, but I think it’s actually more likely that Yan and Santana are the “added” bats. Both of them have not shown their usual power and consistency. If they get back to career averages, the offense will take off in the middle of the order.
Kipnis obviously will come back to Earth a bit, but Brantley is starting to heat up, so they may level each other out there too.
The AL is so weirdly even this year that we could get on a roll and make things interesting. Really, everything seems to be more based on matchups between teams at this point than anything else.