MLB Trade Rumors: Indians listening to offers for Carlos Carrasco
July 23, 2015Cavs trade Rakeem Christmas; Brendan Haywood deal to follow?
July 23, 2015The Cleveland Indians began the second half of the 2015 season by winning two of three in Cincinnati and splitting the two-game series in Milwaukee. Going 3-2 on the road isn’t ordinarily something to complain about, but those two bottom feeders of the NL Central are a combined 84-104, so, really, they shouldn’t have been much of a test for a team that still hopes to make a run at one of those American League Wild Card playoff spots. But they were. It took some scratching and clawing to keep from going 2-3, or worse.
The more meaningful test for the Indians is the seven-game homestand that starts Thursday evening with the first of four games against the Chicago White Sox, followed by three against the Kansas City Royals.
Has the book on the Cleveland Indians been written for 2015? We shall see, but this far into the campaign it’s hard to imagine a sufficient number of plot lines changing to make for a different outcome. Simply put, the Indians, after 93 games, look like a .500 team, at best.
At 45-48, Cleveland is 12 games behind Kansas City, which, by the way, has the best record in the American League at 57-36. The Royals are playing with the kind of confidence and consistency that shows they know 2014 was no fluke. They’ve given up fewer runs (340) than anyone else in the AL and they have the second best run differential (+70). Their home record (32-17) is tied for second best and their road record (26-19) is the AL’s best.
The White Sox are at the other extreme. They’ve scored fewer runs (310) than anyone in the Major Leagues and their run differential (-81) is, by far, the worst in the American League. At 42-50, they have the third worst winning percentage in the AL and they’re 16-28 within the Central Division.
In terms of their record, the Indians are 10th out of 15 teams in the American League and 17th best in the majors. And regarding those two AL Wild Card playoff spots, the Houston Astros (53-43) and the Minnesota Twins (50-44) look like the favorites. Every other team is at .500 or worse and both Houston and Minnesota (giving credit where it’s due) have been stubbornly consistent thus far this season.
The Indians don’t simply have one Achilles heel
The Indians don’t simply have one Achilles heel
The Indians’ home record (19-26) is worse than every other team in the AL except for Texas. The Indians are a lousy 14-22 against their Central Division rivals, while Kansas City, Minnesota, and Detroit all have winning records within the Central. Further, the Indians are 13-20 (.394) against left-handed starters. Only Boston (9-15) and the White Sox (6-12) are worse against southpaws. And, of course, the Red Sox and White Sox are at the very bottom of their division’s laundry chutes.
These statistics are to point out that the Indians don’t simply have one Achilles heel. With the Tribe, it’s a number of weaknesses that show few signs of abating.
The Indians’ run differential (-22) is a glaring weakness. Their total runs scored (370) is 12th in the American League. To still be competitive with that kind of offensive output, their pitchers would have to be among the five stingiest staffs in the AL. Unfortunately, they’re nearer the bottom, tied for ninth in runs allowed. Accounting for poor defensive play, they’re still only seventh best in earned runs allowed, but, essentially, as good as Cleveland’s pitching has been for much of the season, it hasn’t been able to compensate for the weakness of the offense.
The Indians’ losing home record is another major problem. One needn’t bother finding the specific research to prove the point. It just seems to be common sense and common knowledge that teams who can’t win consistently at home, will be at home on their comfy chairs when the postseason starts.
Another such stat is the Indians’ record against their Central Division opponents. Because they carry so much weight in the division standings and because there are so many of them, games against a team’s division foes all have a higher degree of relevance. But to a disconcerting extent, the Indians this year look like a team that seems overmatched within the division. Detroit is the obvious example, against whom the Indians are 3-9. Against the Royals, the Indians are 4-5 and against the Twins the Indians are 2-4. Against the lowly White Sox the Indians are only 5-4.
So there’s a long list of storylines for the 2015 season that would have to see significant change for fans to see a different, more entertaining team over the next 69 games. The next chapter starts with a series … at home at Progressive Field … against a division rival … and against three left-handed starters in the four games.
Scheduled pitchers:
RHP Trevor Bauer (8-6, 4.03, 109.1 IP) vs. RHP Jeff Samardzija (6-5, 4.08, 132.1 IP)
RHP Corey Kluber (5-10, 3.38, 141 IP) vs. LHP José Quintana (4-9, 3.83, 120 IP)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (10-7, 3.94, 114.1 IP) vs. LHP Chris Sale (8-5, 2.86, 125.2 IP)
RHP Danny Salazar (8-5, 3.78, 104.2 IP) vs. LHP Carlos Rodon (3-3, 4.48, 70.1 IP)
The Indians’ pitching staff (3.81 ERA) has the edge over that of the White Sox (3.91), but not by much. Indians starters (4.17 ERA) and White Sox starters (4.03) are fairly close, but the Indians’ bullpen (3.13 ERA) has done better than the Sox bullpen (3.59). Again, however, the White Sox have that large contingent of southpaw starters, and against the Tribe, that’s been shown to be an advantage.
The offense of the White Sox is a bigger head-scratcher than the Tribe’s. Chicago is last in the American League in almost every offensive category: Hits, doubles, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. None of the White Sox regulars has a batting average over .300, and Cuban-born José Abreu leads the Sox regulars with a .287 average.
The White Sox have had as disappointing a season as the Indians. During the off season, Chicago Vice President/General Manager Rick Hahn made several moves signaling the team’s intention to contend in 2015 but, obviously, that isn’t happening. The most notable such trade was for starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija, even though he’s a free agent at the end of the 2015. With over two months left in the season, most of the talk now concerning Samardzija is about the likelihood of his being traded. The White Sox, needless to say, won’t be buyers as the trade deadline approaches.
Hahn also signed Adam LaRoche in the off season to DH for two years and $25 million. Entering this series LaRoche is batting only .218 with nine home runs and, over the last month, he is hitting below the Mendoza line. The Indians’ acquisition of Brandon Moss (.220 with 15 HRs) looks pretty good by comparison.
The White Sox also signed Yankees closer David Robertson for four years and $46 million. Prior to 2014, Robertson was an occasional closer but had 44 saves for the Yanks in 2014 and then cashed in with the ChiSox. His signing was also part of the win-now plan. This season Robertson is 20 of 25 in save opportunities.
It’s difficult to know how a massively disappointing season affects players heading into the dog days of summer. They might not even know themselves if they’ve lost an edge on the field due to losing on the scoreboard, or if they’ve just lost a skill that will never return. In Roger Kahn’s classic about Jackie Robinson and the Brooklyn Dodgers, The Boys of Summer, the author tells the story of events leading up to the Dodgers World Series victory in 1955. The second half of the book re-visits the lives of several players, including Robinson, Carl Erskine, Joe Black, Preacher Roe, Pee Wee Reese, Carl Furillo, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella, Duke Snider, and Billy Cox.
The most poignant aspect of the general story of baseball is that, as players aged in their careers, almost universally they couldn’t detect the decline in their skills. They felt the same, but they weren’t getting their hits, their batting averages were going down, and one day, suddenly and shockingly, they were out of the game.
What a miracle of talent, then, was a hitter like Ted Williams, who in 1960 at the age of 41, batted .316 and hit 29 home runs. In his final plate appearance (his 9,788th), he hit a home run (his 521st), crossed home plate, ran into the dugout, and clocked out for the final time. He earned $60,000 in his last three years in the game, less than he earned in his peak years ($90,000 in 1950-51).
But speaking of Jackie Robinson and that era, on Saturday, July 25 at 4:45 p.m. the Cleveland Indians will unveil the statue of Larry Doby (1923-2003). It will be placed outside the right field gate alongside those of Bob Feller and Jim Thome. Doby, inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1998, played for the Indians from 1947 to 55 and again in 1958, but he also played for the White Sox in 1956-57. So the visit by the White Sox this week undoubtedly played a part in the timing of this event.
Doby is being honored this week in much the same way Jackie Robinson has been honored in decades past for his role in ending the unconscionable segregation of Major League Baseball prior to the 1947 season. There will be no losers at that event, only winners.
2 Comments
I kept waiting and hoping I’d see someone mention Larry Doby but I guess just like the Indians it takes awhile. It’s a shame 12 years after his death Mr. Doby will be rightfully recognized with a statue unlike other people who seem to have received their trophy way ahead of time. I wonder if the occasion will garner any discussion on any of the sports talk. I’m hoping MLB Network covers it at least.
Agreed. But, at least we can add to the discussion within Indians fans and hopefully raise the awareness within the younger generations.