Predicting the Browns final 53-man roster
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September 2, 2015Phil Taylor being cut means more than one very large professional athlete losing his job. Big Phil’s departure has become a microcosm of all that is wrong with the Browns, an indicator of years of mismanagement at the team-building level, as he was the last of the players the Browns obtained in their 2011 draft day trade with the Atlanta Falcons.
Cleveland sent Atlanta the No. 6 overall pick (Julio Jones) in exchange for No. 27 (traded to Kansas City for the No. 21 pick, Taylor), No. 59 (Greg Little), and No. 124 (Owen Marecic). The Browns also received Atlanta’s first- and fourth-round picks in the 2012 draft — the first rounder became Brandon Weeden, and the fourth rounder was sent to Minnesota in a trade that yielded Trent Richardson. If that leaves a bad taste in your mouth, I recommend gargling with Windex.
Every one of the players the Browns acquired in those deals is gone. Worse, every player from the Browns entire 2011 draft is gone. Worse yet, only three players from the entire 2011 team are still on the roster in 2015: Joe Thomas, Joe Haden, and Alex Mack. Three players remaining out of 53 means that some 94 percent of the Browns roster has changed in four years. I know NFL means “not for long” and everything, but this is ridiculous.
Meanwhile, Jones is a two-time Pro Bowler and recently became the highest paid receiver in the NFL.
Let’s not dwell on the painful past. Let’s not get all mad about all these crap picks over the years. Let’s for a moment consider that being a general manager of a professional sports franchise may actually be a very difficult thing. Let’s also do the mentally healthy thing: avoid dealing with reality and construct our own hypothetical universe to preserve our collective mental well-being. Let’s suppose the Browns didn’t make any trades on draft day in 2011. Let’s suppose they kept the picks they already had and just took the best players available at each spot.
Er, that may be a bridge too far. Let’s start with a realistic re-imagining of the 2011 draft sans trades before working our way up to the best- and worst-case scenarios. Don’t want to get the bends or anything.
Realistic case
Keep No. 6 — Keep the pick and take Julio Jones. The Browns get a No. 1 caliber wide receiver with physical bonafides on par with Josh Gordon and a significantly cleaner disciplinary track record. Jones has averaged 88.4 receiving yards per game in his four NFL seasons, currently the best all-time. He has had at least one catch of 79 yards or longer in each season. His 15.6-yard per reception average is sixth-best among active players. I wasn’t completely sold on him coming out of Alabama, but yikes, this guy can play.
Lose 2012 first-round and fourth-round picks — I don’t want to run down the entire butterfly effect, but this means no Brandon Weeden and probably no Trent Richardson. Pity.
Lose No. 21 — No Phil Taylor. I liked Phil. I still do, I suppose. His farewell to Cleveland was nice. He’s a Denali of a man — SUV or mountain; dealer’s choice — and he was solid in his rookie campaign. He played all 16 games, plugged up the middle of the line, and even got four sacks. He had a tough time staying healthy, and that may have ultimately signed his release letter. All the best to the big Baylor Bear.
No. 37 — Jabaal Sheard. He was decent for the Browns! It’s not exactly encouraging that his production worsened the longer he was on the team, but his first couple seasons were very solid: 15.5 sacks and six forced fumbles. He was squeezed out by the move to a base 3-4 defense under Rob Chudzinski and Mike Pettine, and now Sheard is on to New England. I fully expect Sheard to have 10-plus sacks and be the subject of one “Where did this guy come from??” story on an NFL pregame show.
Lose No. 59 — No Greg Little. What a shame.
Keep No. 70 — Justin Houston, who the Chiefs took at this same spot. The Browns packaged this pick with No. 27 to get Taylor. Justin Houston had 22 sacks last season. He had 11 the year before. He had 10 the year before that. He has made three Pro Bowls and is the prototypical pass-rushing outside linebacker, also known in some circles as a not-Mingo.
No. 102 — Jordan Cameron. Hey! This was a good pick! Cameron always seemed to be dinged up as a Brown, and his departure to the Miami Dolphins was weird, but he was a good player, if only for one year. One Pro Bowl season seems like a good return for a fourth-round pick, especially given the rest of the flotsam in the Browns’ draft history.
No. 137 — Buster Skrine, who I thought to be a decent little slot corner. He played in all 16 games in each of his four seasons in Cleveland, and was a starter for much of the final two. For a fifth rounder, you could do worse. That said, Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner viewed his deal with the Jets as one of the worst signings of this summer. So there’s that.
Lose No. 150 — The Browns traded two sixth-round picks — Nos. 168 and 170 — to the Minnesota Vikings for this pick. Losing No. 150 means losing Jason Pinkston. Too bad. Perhaps the Browns could have acquired another colorfully named player like Cory Greenwood, Charlie Whitehurst, or Will Blackmon instead.
Keep No. 168 — DeMarcus Love, a tackle from Arkansas chosen by the Vikings. Love has bounced around the league and is currently a free agent. Sounds like a perfect fit. (Also: The Browns got this trade in the Brady Quinn-Peyton Hillis trade. I love this team so much.)
Keep No. 170 — Mistral Raymond, a safety from South Florida chosen by the Vikings. He started a few games in his first few seasons before missing all of 2014 due to injury. He has a hell of a backstory, if nothing else.
No. 248 — Eric Hagg. I have zero memories of Eric Hagg, as a Cleveland Brown or otherwise. I hope he’s doing well.
That’s all well and good, but still not that exciting, right? Jones and Houston would be big gets, but I’m still assuming the Browns wouldn’t have found gold in the late rounds. Screw that assumption. Let’s have some fun here. What would the best-case scenario look like if the Browns held on to all of their picks?
Best case
No. 6 — J.J. Watt, who was chosen No. 10 overall to Houston and is considered the very best defensive player in football — and possibly the best player in football, full stop. He has two 20-plus sack seasons under his belt, and heaps more quarterback pressures. He’s averaged nearly 10 passes defended per season. He scored five touchdowns last year, a number that only one Brown, Isaiah Crowell, bested last year. Watt and Joe Thomas squaring off in practice might knock the damn planet off its axis.
No. 37 — Randall Cobb, who went No. 59 overall to Green Bay. He doesn’t have Julio Jones’ size (Cobb: 5-10/190, Jones: 6-2/220), but he’s scored 25 touchdowns in four seasons and had nearly 1,300 receiving yards last year. Cobb picked up a shoulder injury recently, but could return as soon as Week 1. Were he a Brown, we would learn that he’d had that same shoulder injury since high school. (Another option at this spot would be running back DeMarco Murray.)
No. 70 — Justin Houston. See above, ideally after realizing that the whole Browns team had 30 sacks last year and Houston alone had 22.
No. 102 — Julius Thomas, who went to Denver at pick No. 129. I was tempted to stick with Jordan Cameron here, both to give the Browns some credit and because Thomas has also been nipped by the injury bug in his career. Thomas gets the nod, however, on the strength of having two strong seasons rather than one. He barely played his first two years, but went out and caught 12 touchdowns in each of the last two. I’m sure that he would have the same success with Browns quarterbacks that he had with Peyton Manning.
No. 137 — Richard Sherman, who Seattle took with the No. 154 pick. Sherman and Joe Haden in the same secondary. Can you imagine? Rather than the Seahawks, the Browns could have their own Legion of Boom. Add in Justin Gilbert on top of that and — wait, hello?
No. 168 — Jason Kelce, the Pro Bowl center the Eagles took with the No. 191 pick. Sure, the Browns already had Alex Mack, but that hasn’t stopped them from drafting a center before.
No. 170 — Tyrod Taylor, chosen by the Ravens with pick No. 180. There was surely a better player to be had here, but I wanted the Browns to pick up another developmental QB just in case all of these moves meant that they wouldn’t take Johnny Manziel. Tyrod can be Johnny adjace.1
No. 248 — Chris Harris, who went undrafted and was later signed by the Broncos. Harris would give the Browns a third Pro Bowl cornerback, and another mentor to help Justin Gilbert with his transiti–(farts).
Worst case
If the Browns still made the trade and the entire draft was gone in four years.
- “Adjace” (i.e. a version of the word adjacent) is used on Grantland’s Cheap Heat wrestling podcast to describe a lesser or off-brand version of something. Time will tell if Josh McCown is Jake Delhomme adjace or visa versa. [↩]
28 Comments
This is why the ability to evaluate and acquire talent is the single most important element in developing a winning team. Jimmy Johnson with Dallas was great at this (Walker trade).
Oops I did it again!!!
Nausea heartburn indigestion upset stomach diarrhea
How about keeping Cobb at 37 and taking DeMarco Murray at 70?
Oooh, I feel woozy…
Didn’t everyone in Cleveland in 2011 love our draft? Weren’t we all annoiting Heckert as the savior of this franchise? Oh well.
So in this through-the-looking-glass exercise it’s realistic that the same prez-GM combo who believe multiple picks beginning with Taylor in the the late first round are better than anyone available immediately after AJ Green, the guys who apparently wanted depth before talent (Owen Marecic, really?), who the next year decided that Richardson and Weeden were franchise players … those guys still realistically NAIL it by taking Justin Houston? Nyet, my bolshevik friend.
The Holms-Heck problem in 2011 was the same as Joe Banner’s problem. If after all your fancy trades and moves and value charts you can’t accurately identify good players your deal is no bueno! And this is where comparisons to Jimmy Johnson and the Hershel Walker deal collapse. Johnson knew the diff between Emmit Smith and Trent Richardson, between guy who can play and can’t. In the immortal words of Dirty Harry, “A good man knows his limitations.” If Heck had a lesser chance to screw up at #6 overall (ok, debatable given 2013) he should have stayed there and drafted someone there, where talent should be more obvious. But no, maybe he was a nice man but not what Harry was talking about.
You would think by getting all those picks we could get someone serviceable.
I’d rather kick myself in the nuts 40 times than read this article. Which stinks because articles like these are hard to write and are usually pretty fun.
Julio Jones catching the rock from Seneca Wallace is mmm, mmm good. Colt McCoy?
[Point of order, for the good of the order]: Thaddeus Lewis is technically on the roster now, as he was in 2011. Sure, maybe he’s not STILL on the roster (as in, having been on the roster since 2011 – and probably won’t remain on the roster for long), but he’s technically on the roster.
40 times? You probably won’t feel anything after 5 or 6, so why not go ahead and mule-kick those cajones a half-dozen times and get to reading anyway?
Hitler was pretty popular with the Germans for a while, too.
/reductio ad Hitlerum has been needlessly invoked. Shut it down.
Yes. Fans tend to judge drafts by whether a team ‘filled needs,’ and they determine that by whether a team chose players at positions they wanted filled. The Jason Kelces of the world be damned.
Schilling is standing off somewhere applauding you. Or is it saluting?
I, for one, hated Brandon Weeden as a prospect. I felt fine about Trent even if drafting a RB that high was giving value though (but did not like trading up 1 spot to “get” him).
I, for one, am not all that flexible, so kicking myself in the sensitive area wouldn’t have much force. Would still probably get woozy going on 40 times though.
http://www.cinemablend.com/images/sections/68309/_1415658672.gif
Don’t worry. Ray Farmer is going to change all this. Right?
Look I am not saying football analysts are stupid, I am just heavily implying it.
He already did, look how many starters last years draft provided!
Well, acquiring and evaluating talent are important, obviously, let’s add a third thing: the ability to develop talent. This players don’t come in to the league as fully formed professionals at the height of their powers — you have to build them up to take advantage of what talent you do evaluate and acquire. Alternately, you can dismiss a young player as the previous regime’s prospect and ditch him for your own guy that you mean to develop, really you do, except he’s going to be the next regime’s last regime’s prospect.
Must we do this? Does it make anyone feel better? Does anyone find this “fun”?
Can’t learn from your mistakes if you always put on your oranger-orange tinted glasses.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I still think it was a good draft. Basically, we were as unlucky as possible (as always). If the Browns took J.J. Watt and he ended up tearing his ACL, we’d be calling that pick idiotic too.
Taylor – played well when healthy; injury bug casualty
Sheard – good-to-great when used correctly; often used incorrectly
Little – not worthy of his draft position; stuck around for a few years; not a complete bust
Cameron – great when healthy; injury bug got him
Marecic – bad pick
Skrine – four years, 64 starts; what more could you ask from a 5th rounder?
Pinkston – started his rookie year; forced out of the league due to blood clots; what coulda been?
Hagg – 7th rounder… meh….
The trouble with evaluating these sorts of things is that players’ potential may or may not be maximized on the team they go to. Taylor and Sheard were both solid players, and while Taylor obviously had injury issues, the reality is that both of them were immediately diminished when we switched to a 3-4 defense, and they might both still be on the team if there were 4-3 positions available for them. That’s what constant turnover will do. (and frankly, constantly using high picks and trading up for qb’s instead of letting the draft come to you tends to lead to wasted picks as well) Looking back at drafts over the years there were more than a few players that were either drafted, traded for, or signed as free agents that had relatively long and productive careers, but left the Browns at the 3-4 year mark because there was yet another front office shake-up.
So even though none of them are still here for various reasons, I think that coming away with Taylor, Sheard, Cameron, and Skrine as productive players for multiple years out of 8 picks is a decent draft. One went to a Pro Bowl. The 2012 draft stings more because Weeden and Richardson both busted so hard, but we still employ Schwartz, Hughes, Benjamin, and Winn, so it wasn’t all bad. It’s easy to look only at other teams’ hits, but such status can be fleeting (what were people saying about the Jordan Cameron pick two years ago?) and we tend to overlook their misses. For example, the Chiefs got Justin Houston right (scouted by one Ray Farmer, btw) but they only have one other player still on their team from that draft.
If you want to look at a depressing draft, look at 1999, when only 3 of 11 picks made it 4yrs with the team, or 2000, when only 3 out of 13 picks made it 4yrs.
wow, you set a low drafting bar. Just looking at the ’11 draft, of the players you say were productive for multiple years:
– Taylor had one ok year. One. He had a few moments after but was basically a guy they were constantly filling in for and he was often simply ineffective. A prime culprit in why the Browns haven’t been able to stop the run.
– Sheard was solid. Not his fault that they changed to a scheme that didn’t play to his strength.
– Cameron was developed for 2 years as a project and barely did anything in the wco before breaking out in Norv’s vertical scheme. One excellent year, then hurt, then gone.
– Skrine was toasted constantly until he became a serviceable 3rd corner his last year here. That’s great for where he was drafted but again, one serviceable year.
From 4 top picks guys I see a total of maybe 4 serviceable years (Taylor, Skrine, Sheard twice) and one excellent year. No one has a perfect draft but considering the talent they left on the board, c’mon. I doubt even Heckert would defend that draft in retrospect.
I would argue Taylor had one good year and one ok year. I agree the injuries take the shine off a bit, but I expect he’s going to get snatched up and continue being a reasonably productive NFL player. Cameron may have been gone as soon as he developed, but that pick was a pro bowler and the fact that he left doesn’t diminish the pick. And I think the stats say Skrine was a pretty decent CB2 last year, and a decent CB3 the year before that. People got upset about the penalties, but that’s common to young CB’s and we were pretty decent against the pass. A change in priorities for cornerbacks because of a different system are why he was valued more by another team this past offseason than the Browns. He’s also continuing on as a productive player.
And this is kind of my whole argument. The Browns have certainly had some busts, particularly in the first round, but the constant turnover wastes the good players that have already been picked. I’m not saying the 2011 draft was a home run or anything. I’m just saying the reason everybody is gone isn’t because the picks were bad.
I don’t have time to go through the whole thing right now, but I wonder how many teams are in a similar situation with that draft after four years. Other than the handful of star players that were taken, I bet there’s a lot of the same minus the instability that renders them useless.
Taylor/Cameron – Injuries derailed their careers. With both, you could see the talent and ability. And as far as I can tell, neither were “injury prone” in college. I know some see it at as a cop out, but it really was just bad luck.
Sheard – A definite win.
Little – I don’t like defending the guy, but he did catch 61 balls his rookie year. He never put in the work to get better.
Skrine – Getting a serviceable nickle back with the 5th pick is a win in my book. It’s not Skrine’s fault that our roster was so bad that he was forced to play a role he wasn’t meant for.
Pinkston – He had a rough/average rookie year, but he still looked like a serviceable back-up lineman at worst. At best, he might have been able to hang at guard. Considering where they got him, I think that’s pretty good too.
So yeah… if you just look at it purely from a production stand point, it was terrible. But like I said below, someone accidentally rolls over J.J. Watt’s ankle during a practice in August of 2011 and then that guy is a bust too.
If you accept that you can’t predict injuries for guys with clean records of health, then I think it’s still a solid, logical draft. There was talent that didn’t pan out because of injury and attitude, but I really don’t think it was a complete bust.
Your prediction of a Jabaal Sheard “breakout” season and subsequent bewilderment on NFL pregame shows is one of the most painfully accurate things I’ve read all offseason.