Ezekiel Elliott named Big Ten Player of the Week
October 6, 2015Indians promote stability, Antonetti, Chernoff, and Falvey
October 6, 2015When the Cleveland Browns hired head coach Rob Chudzinski, I figured, well, here goes the start of yet another five-year plan. So when he was fired fewer than 365 days later, I was as stunned as one can be over a sports-related story. One year?! That’s all you give the guy? Apparently, the inability to turn water into wine (or at least beer) is sufficient evidence of incompetence in this NFL town on the shores of Lake Erie.
So, along came Mike Pettine and Ray Farmer, a new regime, and when they started cleaning house again, I just reset my internal five-year clock. Here we go again. Wake me when some actual competition starts.
For those students of history, even those who took a not-too-in-depth survey course on Western Civ, the sound of “Five-Year Plan” is enough to curl the lips in disgust. The U.S.S.R., Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev … I won’t go on, but those characters certainly gave the phrase “Five-Year Plan” a permanent bad name. Problem is, it’s a useful concept because some human activities central to our existence just don’t fit very neatly into a 12-month timeframe, including the rebuilding of an NFL team.
The most that can be meaningfully said after only one year of a team starting over is whether it is headed in the right direction. This is not the case with a franchise like the Steelers when, for instance, they replace their head coach. When Bill Cowher succeeded Chuck Noll or when Mike Tomlin took over for Cowher, the Steelers weren’t retreating and dynamiting the bridges behind them and starting over. They were just fine-tuning. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have had more than their fair share of demolition experts, guys who like to blow things up.
Since Browns owner Jimmy Haslam’s hiring of the Farmer-Pettine team, he seems to have moderated his position on the time required for judging success. He seems to have carefully eased up on the itchy trigger finger. Good thing.
Back in February when I wrote about the NFL draft and the strategy of drafting the best available player, I described a long-term plan, a system of team building that most of the best NFL teams have used successfully over an extended period. Its success is dependent primarily on a team’s ability to assess talent, to have a better than even shot at knowing, in the first place, who are the best players. But such a strategy also requires a degree of patience with your draftees and the recognition that not every one of them will work out as quickly as you’d like … and some just won’t work out at all. But if a team drafts well, knowing it’s for the long term, hopefully the core of your team in any given year is the product of the previous five or six years of drafts. (According to the NFL Players Association the average player’s career length is 3.3 years. The NFL claims that the average career is about 6 years for players who make a club’s opening day roster in their rookie season.)
During the 2015 NFL draft process, the Ray Farmer-Mike Pettine team described a plan that sounded a lot like the best player available strategy. They are now in their second season and five months past their second draft. It’s pretty evident that, at the start of their tenure, they didn’t see their mission as fine-tuning. Like others before them, they’ve been cleaning house.
Due to salary cap and free agency issues, annual roster turnover in the NFL is probably greater than it’s ever been, but if you look at NFL teams’ average player tenure, you would probably not be surprised that the top 10 teams in tenure are pretty much the top ten teams overall. Also unsurprising is the fact that the Browns’ average tenure is near the shortest.
Roster turnover usually goes hand in hand with head coach/general manager/quarterback turnover. The new guys come in and it’s out with the old, in with the new. New quarterbacks create other kinds of upheaval. The Cleveland Browns, if they aren’t leading the league in these kinds of turnovers, are close to it.
As much as it pains the diehard Cleveland football fan to hear (speaking of desperation), this new Browns group is only in its sophomore year.
A spinoff of the Cleveland Browns, the one that involved the firing of Paul Brown and which ultimately became the Cincinnati Bengals, is an interesting contrast. You probably wouldn’t call the Bengals one of the elite franchises in the NFL, but it isn’t difficult to make the case that they’ve had more success than the Browns during their existence, even before the Browns became the Expansion Browns. Marvin Lewis has been the Bengals head coach since 2003. Sixteen years is quite a commitment to a coach whose record is a shade over .500 and who has never gotten past the first round of the playoffs. That doesn’t happen in Cleveland.
Looking back, though, over the years, you’d probably happily trade the Bengals’ history for the Browns’. You might even wish Modell had moved his team to Cincinnati and left Paul Brown in Cleveland, especially given where the Bengals are in 2015.
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As far as sports-as-entertainment goes, Sunday’s contest against the Chargers was just that. It would have been difficult to walk away in the middle of such a game, warts and all. The Browns were more entertaining, but after four games in the 2015 campaign, Cleveland is 1-3 and is already looking for answers to big questions. They’re just not the ones most people predicted. It was defense that was supposed to be the strength of the team. They were supposed to stop the run more effectively and put more pressure on the passer. But the Browns defense can’t stop the run and they don’t seem able to put much pressure on the opposing QB. The Browns are dead last in the NFL in total yardage allowed and next-to-last in rushing yardage allowed. They are 23rd of 32 teams in net passing yards allowed and 22nd in points allowed. It’s a real stretch to call that a strength.
Then there’s the Browns offensive line. They were supposed to be the strength of the offensive unit, even if it was not possessed of great playmakers. The line, however, is still showing signs of trying to regain last year’s best days. The Browns ran the ball somewhat more effectively against the Chargers, but Josh McCown was under intense pressure on a surprising percentage of plays, especially given San Diego’s supposed weakness in that area. Offensively the Browns aren’t among the leaders in the NFL, but they rank better than their teammates on defense. The offense is 17th in total yards, 9th in passing yardage, 25th in rushing yardage, and 19th in total points.
While it may be surprising to some, the play of the quarterback room has been impressive. Both Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel have ratings just below 100, which puts Cleveland quarterbacks in the upper third in the NFL.
Brandon Weeden, by the way, is at an impressive 108.8, while wunderkind Andrew Luck is ranked next to last with a 65.1 rating. (What a bum! If I were the Colts, I would trade him to the Browns for a sixth-round draft pick.)
It should be noted that Josh McCown has been sacked nine times and Manziel five times. Fourteen sacks in four games is not a good sign. McCown, who got sacked 36 times last year playing for Tampa Bay, may have noticed that his replacement, Jameis Winston, is on pace to get sacked exactly 36 times himself this year. On the other hand, if the Browns continue to allow 3.5 sacks per game, that would end up totaling 56 for the season. As far as quarterback performance goes, it would seem the Browns passing game is not being helped immensely by the O-Line, which is evidenced by both the stats and by the look and feel of game video. There has been lots of pressure on Cleveland QBs.
On the plus side, for all the hoopla over the loss of Jordan Cameron in the offseason and the signings of free agent Rob Housler and undrafted free agent E. J. Bibbs, Gary Barnidge is becoming a major force. What an asset! What hands!
Travis Benjamin on Sunday not only caught a career-high six passes for 79 yards, he is also looking more and more comfortable as a punt returner. He is 6th in the NFL with an average of 17.8 yards per return. And speaking of returns, Justin Gilbert may have found a way to contribute in a significant way — as a kick returner. He showed excellent speed and instincts with the ball and maybe that gives Gilbert an opportunity to gain some aggression and confidence that translates to the defensive backfield.
Then there are Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. They are surfacing as an impressive duo. Crowell ran for 63 yards on 12 carries including an outstanding 32-yard run. He also caught three passes for another 62 yards. Johnson finally showed what kind of versatility of talent he can bring to a roster. He ran eight times for 31 yards and caught nine passes for 85 yards including that 34-yard touchdown pass. Eight Browns receivers caught passes for 356 total yards. The total output for the offense was 456 yards, 27 points and an advantage in time-of-possession, 34:19 to 25:41.
So far it’s looking like the Browns kept the right guy in the kicking game. Travis Coons is 7-for-7 in the field goal department and 8-for-8 on those long extra points. Andy Lee leads all punters in the NFL in average distance (52.7) and net average distance (47.4).
And that takes us back to the debit side of the ledger. Twelve penalties on the Browns for 91 yards against the Chargers. After four games the Browns have the seventh-most number of penalties (34) in the NFL and the eighth-most penalty yards (290). Twelve of the 34 penalties have been pre-snap infractions. Nine of the 34 have been for offensive holding (tied for fifth-worst in the NFL). Six have been false starts. The Browns are tied for second place with three flags for unnecessary roughness.
How does this happen? In the Browns’ first game against the Jets the team looked a little too desperate to prove itself. McCown’s reckless dive into the end zone was a perfect example of that mindset. And so far this season, the team still doesn’t look sure of itself. Could the high-strung jumpiness account for some of the penalties? All this seems understandable to those of us who think more in terms of a five-year plan rather than a 12-month about face for a start-up organization. Bill Belichick has acknowledged the mistakes he made in his first stab at the head coaching job here in Cleveland. Modell fired him, of course. Those who worked for Modell were accustomed to his impetuous decisions.
Will Jimmy Haslam maintain his poise and patience and allow this front office to grow in experience and expertise? Or will he pull an Art Modell and start another purge?
89 Comments
Please, I suspect you learned how to finagle out of a straight jacket years ago.
And, you would have followed step-1, so you wouldn’t have had to worry about it.
so , you are able to judge a draft or players in 1-2 seasons ?
granted , i personally would not have drafted any of these players , but i’m willing to wait more than 1 year to see if they pan-out.
But to put a finer point on my previous comment, I’d still take Sammy Watkins over Manziel and Gilbert, even if Manziel turns out to be the starter some day. That decision is as close to “inexcusable” as I think possible. I’m just willing to try to make lemonade out of the Manziel lemons.
maybe it’s just me , but you can’t write any of these guys off yet.
Wow, are you writing off Erving and Shelton already? Man, I’ve been pretty critical of Browns’ drafts over the years but … Not every position lends itself to first-year players becoming immediate starters. I wouldn’t even completely write off Manziel and Gilbert yet … not yet (although I definitely preferred some other players when Gilbert and Manziel were drafted). The Steelers are well known for being very patient with their rookies. Why, because they almost always have good players in place already, so they bring the rooks along slowly. (But then I’m on that 5-yr clock)
… and basically , regardless of who they decide to draft , i am willing to afford this regime the time necessary to execute their plan.
… “5-year clock” ??
Hiroshima?
So I’m not crazy? Please tell the guys in the lab coats that I don’t need the electric shock therapy anymore. I hate it.
I think there is an abundance of evidence that points to causation. I agree that Shurmur was not head coach material, but if Mangini would’ve been allowed to stick around and paired with a talented player-acquisition executive, I think he could’ve flourished.
To me Pettine is head coach material. I think his players and staff respect him. He is good with the media. I worry he is to married to a particular defensive scheme instead of adjusting his scheme to fit his roster, but hopefully he can learn from his mistakes and progress in his job.
Yes.
I can without a doubt say that drafting Manziel and Gilbert as two first round picks is completely judgement capable seeing the play makers also drafted in that same round whom Farmer passed on.
First round picks are first round picks for a reason; there is typically no wait and see with them…they are primarily viable NFL starting talent.
Manziel and Gilbert were taken over any combination of Beckham JR/Evans/Sammy AND Bridgewater or Carr.
Haslam should have escorted Farmer out the window before he even got a look at round 2.
Too bad Ray forced out one of those “tools he needs” already in Shanahanahanahahnnahan.
I don’t see Pettine as the root of the problem as of now; it’s Ray.
Bridgewater, meh. Carr, maybe, but only if you have the WR combination (which he didn’t have until this year), and he had really mixed reviews in that draft. I don’t blame them for passing on him. Lots of hindsight with him and Beckham, and hindsight is a dangerous thing; but I’m with you on Evans.
Sorry. Just not buying that Shanamahan is a great loss, though he certainly may be a great tool. (See what I did there?)
I said you were crafty. I said nothing of your sanity. The insane should not be diagnosing the insane.
I don’t know. I hear Gotham is beautiful this time of year.
Yeah, I remember that “lateral” that Matthews recovered that was ruled Houston’s ball at the spot Matthews recovered. And the shot of Glanville on the sideline saying “It is their ball” only to be Jerry Seamened to death…
Marty wanted to be GM/Coach and get paid that way as well. Modell said no and off you go.
Per contract, farmer has final say in the draft room.
Really, Gilbert is the only failure here so far. QBs often take a couple years to develop especially if not playing Pro system in college. Erving taken to replace Mack if he leaves after this season.
Agree completely on the 5-year plan, but Browns fans no longer appear capable of being as patient as GM G_O would be. And ultimately, that will have an influence on things at the top.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GTMxlV8em_U/UcMhc0T9sZI/AAAAAAAAQus/THrlCjByjVM/s1600/dontdie.gif
I agree with you. I do think that with the exceptions of Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh every other coach in the NFL would win 4 games as Head Coach of the Cleveland Browns. Mike Tomlin and Mike McCarthy would win 4 games with the Browns and I really like both of them as Head Ball coaches.
This all means that our problem is one of culture and principles, both of which are bedrocks for success as a franchise as they promote stability through patience and trust. Thus good coaches like Tomlin and McCarthy would both fall flat to a 4-12 record as every other head coach has in Cleveland.
But all this is to say that even if the above is true I still do not believe that Shurmur, Chud or Crennel were good coaches. Quality matters but is still dependent on the attributes of an organization.
Pettine? Don’t know.
This doesn’t seem to usually be the case tho. For some reason a new GM always means a new HC. How many examples do you know of where the coach remained intact while new GMs kept coming and going?
Did I just read half a page of comments about how Pat Shurmur would’ve been awesome given time??? Did that seriously just happen??? My god… you people are delusional.
hi HOP … nobody said that. who’s delusional ?
“If I was a gambling man in the position of owning an NFL franchise, I would always err on the side of giving the head coach, any head coach, even Pat Shurmur, a 5-year minimum leash. The probability of any of these guys being an “utter incompetent” is pretty slim. Anyone that makes it into consideration for the job is an accomplished football coach. I’d be willing to bet that the guy will mostly figure it out.” – Garry
“Shoot, I was even one of the only (maybe the only) semi pro-Shurmur guys commenting on WFNY when he was here. The guy knows football, and I still think he would have eventually figured out the bulk of the head coaching gig, particularly the “delegation” principle of leadership.” – Garry
“and look what shurmur had to work with … again , if he’s head coach of the packers & wins everyone would proclaim GENIUS.” – You
WR? Who said WR? Those are grounds to get escorted out of the draft room.
Who the hell needs WRs?
It says right here on my new-school geek-o-metic player value chart, WRs should never be drafted prior to the 11th round.
Pettine is going to pay for cutting Mayle.
you are twisting this to your liking … GARRY never said “awesome” & finished his statement by saying he was “certifiably insane”. i never called shurmur genius , it is merely an “if” scenario , which we all know didn’t happen.
i believe the point was : we’ll never know what would’ve happened had he been given time (5 years) … he still may have been a flop … we’ll never know.
I can see how it looks like I may be pegging Erving as “failure” here but that’s not the case.
I simply meant that from those 4 picks only one is listed as a current starter.
The failure with him is more the fact that you had to draft him to replace your coveted center; instead of just retaining your current center’s services.
So is the crux of the argument that no one in football can ever be patently unqualified to do be a head coach or is it that you cannot identify someone’s compentency before 5 years have passed?
obviously , no … dan quinn in atlanta & todd bowles (jets) are off to great starts. some coaches need a little time to get the personnel they need & implement their system.
look at belichick & how he started in cleveland … then it clicked for him after getting some years under his belt..
I think the Browns have to proceed with this thinking. I can accept that Haslam fired Chud not for his performance in his first year, but because of his assessment of Chud’s ability to lead and flourish. More than accept it, I believe that was his reasoning.
The inverse of that, then, has to be Pettine. Presumably, Haslam hired him because of his trust in Pett’s ability to build a winner over the long term.
Hopefully, Haslam’s grading sheet includes more things than just wins and losses. That’s a nice platitude for the media, but it’s unrealistic for business leaders. Winning has to be the long-term objective, but the plan to get to it and sustain it is vastly more complex and ugly.
You mean when he leaves right? 🙂
Could not agree more. It’s almost like the Browns have to have a start up mentality, where they are willing to lose money in the near-term as they build their product with an eye toward being a sustainably winning entity.
Obviously at some point, results are paramount, but in the near term you need to be assessing your team based on more intangible assets such as leadership, diligence, intelligence etc.
I think Haslam gets this and despite both media and fans reverting to knee-jerk mode, I think his experience in business and what I see as his personal strength and competence will lead him to make better decisions than the previous regime, which was characterized by feckless decision making and doing things out of desperation.
I also optimistically think we will begin to see better results from this team. If we can beat Baltimore in their house, a lot of this noise would go away.
The startup analogy is apt. In fact, it’s what this team needed to do in 1999, but didn’t and hasn’t since.
As long as Haslam understands what he wants and manages by those objectives, I think this team will finally progress. At this point, I think we’ve learned that the chase for sudden success only results in unabating failure.
With the benefit of hindsight, I hate that they drafted Mayle. I love that they cut him.
How many people in their jobs would go out of their way to make a high-profile hire, and when the person doesn’t perform, fire him knowing how bad it looks? Now when Pettine says, “We’ll play the guy who gives us the best chance to win,” I believe him.
“but if Mangini would’ve been allowed to stick around and paired with a talented player-acquisition executive, I think he could’ve flourished.”
Frowns, is that you?
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