GIFs: Richard Jefferson posterizes a 7-3 Walter Tavares
October 8, 2015Karlos Dansby says giving up big plays is “not a trend” for Browns
October 8, 2015“Maybe I’m wrong” is a phrase I repeat multiple times a day. It is not only a song with a great riff from the Blues Traveler1 , but the phrase serves a balancing purpose for anyone with enough hubris to make predictions and projections in the wildly varying sport that is baseball.
I had such hubris during Spring Training when I decided to jot down a whole slew of things I believed about the 2015 team. So, let this serve as a slap back into the reality of what actually happened.
I believed that the team was having fun and caring about each other.
Starting off with an easy one. Yes, through Mike Aviles and his daughter Adriana, the team truly demonstrated they cared about one another far beyond baseball.
I believed…
- Tyler Holt was a better baseball player than Ryan Raburn and David Murphy.
- Raburn and Murphy would make the 25-man roster, but Holt will be sent to Columbus until Michael Bourn was injured.
- Losing Zach Walters this spring was a bigger loss than losing Gavin Floyd
- Bourn looked like the player that he was in Atlanta.
- Jason Kipnis looked like the 2013 version of himself.
- Yan Gomes was the best catcher alive not named Yadier Molina.
The first batch of real projections and some pretty big misses. Yan Gomes was coming off a 2014 Silver Slugger Award, but he did not live up to his hitting standards in 2015 as the right-handed power bat in the lineup. Michael Bourn2 and Tyler Holt3 also severely underperformed in center field leaving the team with a gaping hole in one of the most important defensive positions on the field.
But, I did nail Jason Kipnis looking healthy as he had one of the best first halves in MLB (in particular, May).
Strangely enough, I still believe Yan Gomes can (and will) rebound in 2016 as his littany of injuries attributed to his erratic season hitting, and he was framing pitches and throwing out runners as per usual.
Also, Jason Kipnis fell off in the second half, but I suspect he’ll be back healthy putting together some great hitting months.
I believed the Indians starting rotation was both good and had depth and I believed…
- Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and T.J. House had solidified their spots in the rotation.
- Corey pitching on Opening Day wasn’t a surprise, so it was nice to get a laugh out of the announcement.
- Gavin Floyd’s injury opened the door for Danny Salazar to impress the coaching staff for the final spot.
- The Indians would go with Shaun Marcum instead and have Danny start the year in Columbus.
- Zach McAllister would be needed to start some games this year, but he’s going to be the long man in the bullpen at first.
Hmmmm, yes, the Indians rotation was good and definitely had depth between Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Tomlin, Anderson, and even Bauer. The Indians starters finished 10th in ERA (fourth in AL), seventh in FIP (best in AL), and ninth in WAR (third in AL) despite struggling to find a fifth starter until midway through the season.
But, Bauer’s season was erratic and T.J. House was terrible (along with Zach McAllister, Shaun Marcum, Bruce Chen, and Toru Murata).4 Salazar did open the season in Columbus, but it was Zach McAllister, not Shaun Marcum who began the year in the rotation. So, yes, McAllister was needed in the rotation to start some games, but those games convinced the team to make him the long man in the bullpen.
For 2016, it appears the rotation is even more of a strength than many thought heading into 2015. Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar are now proven. The emergence of Cody Anderson was essential5 and Josh Tomlin once again was proven a useful pitcher. If the team trusts Trevor Bauer to become more consistent, then the Indians might even consider dealing from an area of strength to fortify their lineup.
I also believed that the Indians defense would be much improved compared to 2014. I believed…
- Lonnie Chisenhall needed to start the season hitting well or we would see Francisco Lindor sooner than expected.
- Jose Ramirez would move to third base when Lindor came up much like the Baltimore Orioles had Manny Machado move over to the hot corner.
- The less we saw of Swisher, Raburn, and Murphy in right field, the better the right field defense would look.
Yeah, Chisenhall did not hit early in the season, but he did play solid defense at third base, which granted him a slightly longer leash. Ramirez, on the other hand, did not hit nor did he field well early in the season. Upon his return, the Indians used him as a utility infielder until late in the season when he became the starting third baseman.6 And, Brandon Moss was actually a pleasant surprise with his defense in right field, but I doubt anyone would have guessed it would be Chisenhall earning defensive honors in right field.
The defense was horrific in April and May, but it eventually ended as a top 10 defense in MLB thanks to Francisco Lindor, Giovanny Urshela, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Abraham Almonte solidifying their positions defensively in the second half of the season.
Whether the defensive improvements can be maintained depends on the lineup construction for 2016. The front office has taken risks on poor defenders to help offensively in the past. It will be interesting to track if the emphasis has shifted given the late season defense.
I believed the Indians would have good speed and power in their lineup. I believed…
- The Indians would have sufficient power in the lineup between Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Brandon Moss, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, and Roberto Perez.
- Three of the above players would hit 25 homeruns this year.
- The other three would have at least 18 each.
- Nick Swisher would not have his normal power coming back from his knee surgeries and it may be awhile before we even see him play.
- The Indians would have sufficient speed in the lineup between Michael Bourn, Jose Ramirez, and Michael Brantley.
- The bullpen was going to play a significant factor into the success or failure of this season.
Whoops.
Oh, do I need more here? Well, Brandon Moss might have hit the 25 home run mark had he stayed with the team and received enough at bats, but he only ended with 15 for the Indians and 19 overall in 145 games (including 51 games for the St. Louis Cardinals). Carlos Santana (19 HR, 154 games), Michael Brantley (15 HR, 137 games), Yan Gomes (12 HR, 95 games), and Francisco Lindor (12 HR, 99 games) were the only other Indians to even achieve a double-digit mark.
The Indians finished 22nd with home runs, 19th in isolated power, and 18th in runs. The team did finish ninth overall in wRC+, and recovered their hitting with RISP after being terrible early in the season (99 sOPS+ meaning about MLB average). However, the Indians were largely a below average offensive team.
The lineup will be the most interesting portion of the 2016 roster construction. The team could use offensive upgrades at third base, center field, and right field. The team also could consider finding a more formal platoon mate (ala David Murphy) for Ryan Raburn at designated hitter. However, with any addition, the effect on the team defense must also be considered. Regardless, if the Indians expect to compete with the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, and the rest of the American League next year, then the bottom half of the lineup cannot go through months of the season as a black hole again.
Let us just agree we need more bat flips.
Overall
So, maybe I’m wrong about the Indians, but I still believe in the future of the team despite the frustrations of 2015. Then again, I keep harkening back to the opening lyrics from the Blues Traveler song.
I wanna show you that anything is possible
I wanna show you that your wildest dreams can come true
And I swear some day I’m gonna figure out how to do just that
But until then, I guess trying is all I can do
Statistics and rankings courtesy of fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
- Or from WFNY’s own Richard Pietro. A different song, but Pietro wrote his in 1970, so the phrase belongs to him more than Blues Traveler. I should have known it as I have the Pietro & Friends album and do recommend it to all readers here. [↩]
- Either injured or struggling before the trade to the Atlanta Braves. [↩]
- Just nine games played with the Indians and eventually claimed by the Cincinnati Reds. [↩]
- House did earn the initial nod, but most Indians fans wish he hadn’t. [↩]
- Though many are rightfully cautious about his FIP being much higher than his ERA. [↩]
- Giovanny Urshela had some shoulder troubles, but he also had never hit well for the Indians. [↩]
45 Comments
It’s always fun to look back and see the ridiculous stuff we as fans were worrying about. Marcum?
Based on my comments in the section-
My miss:(dramatically) underestimating how quickly Lindor would be so good
My hit: realizing to expect nothing from Gavin Floyd
Not really predictions: pondering Urshela and Tomlin as possible contributors
These types of predictions make me think that we get too hung up on individual performances. It’s not so much “what will Marcum do?”, “what will Salazar do?”, “what will Gomes do?”, etc. and more “how good can five of these ten starters be?”, “how strong is this unit of middle infielders? what’s the best case? the worst?”, etc.
My only prediction was that this would be a competitive team that was fun to watch all season. I was only off by 75% of the season HA.
I once thought I was wrong about April baseball mattering for the Indians this year, but it turns out I was mistaken in thinking I was wrong.
How about my discussing Lonnie’s terrible defensive contributions at 3B in the comments? Whoo boy, he sure surprised me (and everyone) with how he actually played well there. Too bad the stick went silent, but I’d say it worked out best for everyone so far (let’s hope he hits well enough to stick in RF though).
In our hopefulness, we were all “wrong” about a few things. But in our clear minds we were right knowing the Indians’ were employing a failed method of throwing a pile of scrubs, retreads and fliers and hoping for uniform rebound and overachievement; failing to bring in a legitimate bat; not going with Lindor out of spring training; dragging out to a slow start, etc etc. Frustrating season.
But per the Blues Travelers…the hook brings you back. 2016 baby!
He hit under .100 in September his schtick is gone! Add a RF please.
He was bad but over .100… .167/.228/.250
Adding in the couple October games: .183/.244/.268
People turned a blinds eye to all of the pitfalls with this team but that’s nothing new for fans. I was very surprised Sports Illustrated was fooled however. Well not completely surprised.
A lot of the same ?s still remain. 3B? RF? CF? DH? And possibly a couple spots in the bullpen. The only things that are certain are: the depth of the starting rotation (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, Anderson & Tomlin = nice), the closer (Allen), Brantley (LF), Lindor (SS), Santana (1B), Kipnis (2B) and Gomes (C). Personally I’d like to see Kipnis take some grounders at 3B this spring Urshella aside. Put some pressure on Urshella because he needs to work. Ramirez can play 2B. Almonte for me is a 4th outfielder.
So that means the outfield needs to be addressed starting in RF. You could platoon Chisenhall give him a shot starting from day one while adding someone say like Marlon Byrd possibly. But CF is a big question.
We’ll see what happens.
I don’t feel any better but see my comment below as to RF.
He’s just too inconsistent imo. Always has been. Never been a believer.
MLBtraderumors predicts his arb salary in 2016 at $3M though, so I wouldn’t mind if he’s still on the roster as a bench player. I hope we have someone better ahead of him in right, but – knowing the Indians – he’ll be one of a grab bag of bargain binners and lottery tickets.
.333 baseball in any month will sink a season!
Much easier to stay on a hill than climb out of a hole.
That low on Almonte? It was only 51 games, but he played really well. Which isn’t to say I’m sold on him. But even if his bat isn’t as good as it appeared, he’s above average defensively for a CF. I think between him and Naquin, I’m okay where we are. Zimmer struggled in AA during the 2nd half so I don’t see him being fast tracked or anything. And Frazier is still a few years away. So CF isnt’ at the top of my worries list. Considering that we’ll be limited in what we can add, I think RF is the way to go. I would like to see us add someone of real value there.
I wonder how the market will view Jason Heyward.
Argumentum ad adage
Not even going to pretend that’s possible.
In vino veritas.
Over inflated most likely more on possibilities then actual production.
None of the kids will be ready position or pitching most likely but no I’m not for Almonte starting full time. I think he’s a great sub/4th outfielder however.
Are you sure this isn’t the Creme&Red Indian uniform?
http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2015/01/17/images/mlbf_37139207_th_45.jpg
-multiple GG winner
-.293/.359/.439
-50 extra base hits
-23/26 on SB attempts
-26yo through most of 2016
Nah. Injury prone and as Sham said, an underachiever. Plus too expensive. The Cards lament having dealt Shelby Miller for him. But then again, the luxury of pitching that team has…
When he gets a raise it will be based more on what he can do as opposed to what he has done but that’s just my opinion. I like him. When he plays. He’s to expensive for Indians but I share your wish.
Don’t forget we are paying Chris Johnson about $9M next year so there is no way he is not in the everyday lineup somewhere.
I’ll take an “underachiever” that maybe should have averaged 7-8 WAR a season instead of the 5-6 he actually got over a heck of a lot of other players in the league.
Or a platoon bat. Lots and lots of platooning.
True luckily he can play multiple defensive positions too.
He should play against every LHP, and pretty much zero RHP’s if anybody else is healthy. Still, I expect him to be a pretty darn good half-a-player.
hi MG … he could start in RF on my team anyday. i am just amazed at all the injuries they sustained & it’s next man up & they never skip beat … grichuck & piscotty showed to be real fine players.
Boy just throw Jason Kipnis under the bus why don’t ya!
Good then help your dad pay for him and maybe he will become an Indian.
Don’t you EVER say anything bad about Christopher Dalton Johnson! Do you want me to turn this car around so you can pay Swisher and Bourn $30M? (And it’s like $7.5M in ’15 and then $9M in ’16.)
Only worry is the back.
It’s so childish and boarding on disrespectful, but Steve Dolan jokes make me laugh. Sorry, Steve.
All we are is dust in the wind, dude.
Dust…. wind…. dude.
$22.5M in ’15 (we gave the Braves $15M up front to make up the difference reportedly)
Who said anything bad about CDJ? Just said for that money they are going to shoehorn him into the everyday lineup.
If they’re smart, they’ll just shoehorn him in against lefties.
No Chris Johnson anywhere?
They must have really wanted to move those guys!
He’s busy with his other job…
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/markhughes/files/2014/06/amazing-spider-man-2.png
No need to apologize. There’s only one way to take Shammy posts. I laugh too.
Chiz needs to be challenged by an OF signing. His hitting is far too inconsistent. He cannot be plan A in RF. Another bat needs to be added for 1b or DH. What that means for Santana is up to guys named Jason who love him. IMO if a way can be found for Santana to be a 6 or 7 hitter ok – but then – what position justifies that?
If Chris Johnson is a platoon player for lefties – who is he putting on the bench?
Bob
Trade for Pedro Alvarez and DH him!
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