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October 27, 2015A Welcome Back Loss: Cavs-Bulls, Behind the Box Score
October 27, 2015LeBron James will be happy to tell you he’s the best player on the planet, but there are a million ways to look at the field of talented NBA players. Some rankings take contracts into account. Some presume to create a fantasy draft scenario where you’re picking a guy to reboot your franchise today to determine which player has the most value for the future.
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight decided to use wins above replacement to find the best “franchise players,” but added a layer of projection over the course of the next six seasons to determine their ultimate value. Despite pushing LeBron James well into his mid-thirties, the four-time MVP still managed to come out at fourth overall, sandwiched between a pair of younger MVP candidates in Russell Westbrook at five and James Harden at three.
LeBron is a multipositional freak of nature, as his Larry Bird-Magic Johnson-Charles Barkley comps demonstrate. (What about Michael Jordan? He’d rank high on LeBron’s list too if he hadn’t spent his age-30 season playing minor league baseball.) Even on the downward slope of his career, the King is still the King and projects to have several good years left. We know that some of you will object to any list that doesn’t have LeBron at No. 1, but consider the following: The only other 31-or-older player to make our long-term value list is Marc Gasol, and LeBron projects to have almost as much career value remaining as three Gasols put together.
It’s hard to argue with all of that logic in their chosen scenario, but I’m sure glad to have LeBron James in Cleveland over great players like James Harden and Steph Curry for the next couple of years. Maybe even Anthony Davis too, but there would be a lively debate over that one.
Make sure you go check the rest of the list to see the write-ups on Kevin Love (21) and Kyrie Irving (11). And no, you won’t find a write-up for Tristan Thompson. He finished at 106 on their list, but he won’t feel too lonely down there with Superman Dwight Howard keeping him company at 102. Oh and if you wouldn’t mind, nobody tell Tristan that Iman Shumpert came in at 82.
Cool? Cool.
Now DEBATE!
[Also See: A Roundup of Predictions, Projections and things for the 2015-16 NBA season]
5 Comments
They should have left WAR in MLB where it kind of belonged. What a horrible stat to compare players in the NBA. I looked at it and the names who didn’t skew down and I laughed. I mean Joel Embiid hasn’t played one single solitary minute in the NBA yet somehow he manages to skew upwards. “Focusing on the long term makes a difference” no kidding! Obviously not playing at all doesn’t factor. It’s completely biased towards age.
Based on all of this it’s a miracle LBJ is even listed let alone listed #4. I disagree on Harden even though I thought he was close to an MVP last season. He’s a statistical dream unfortunately that doesn’t equate to a champion.
Yeah, its not like Nate Silver has a history of making really good prediction systems or anything.
And that many skew downward is a sign of aging curves in the NBA. It’s a league geared toward young, athletic types. And there are a few more than Embiid that project to improve, rather than decline. Talent in the NBA happens to have a bias towards guys under 27 or so, thus making complete sense that projection systems would.
You do present an interesting defense to what makies it a “horrible stat” though.
Silver should stick to politics where he made his name.
But thank you for recognizing the age bias in this NBA statistical model. It’s to not be overlooked.
Silver made his name projecting sports before he got into politics.
Yeah, there is an age bias. In the NBA, younger players generally are better than older players.
it is really a nice post ….