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November 19, 2015Blue Jays, Indians discussing possible trade: MLB Rumors
November 19, 2015As Thanksgiving approaches, the Major League Baseball hot stove is beginning to heat up. Some of the offseason’s biggest free agents already have decided on their 2016 landing spots. The Cleveland Indians, coming off a disappointing 81-80 season, are expected to have a busy winter.
But the Indians aren’t expected to make a big splash in free agency. Sure, the team could add a complementary piece or two via the open market. There are a handful of options that could be good fits. Instead, the team’s most likely maneuver to short- and medium-term competition is expected to be through the trade market.
Clearly, the team has three high-end starting pitchers — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar — and a handful of other pitching/prospect assets that could be very useful to other teams in an exchange. The Indians appear to be in desperate need for more hitting talent.
The Indians most urgent and obvious need is in the outfield as we previously analyzed. However, the Indians also need to utilize any and all potential methods to upgrade the team, which could involved obtaining a more prolific corner infielder. The Indians already were one of the teams that had aggressively bid on South Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, though the Minnesota Twins won out with a $12.85 million posting fee bid. On the middle infield, the team is set with a pair of players in Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor who are expected to compete for All-Star honors annually.
Thus, WFNY’s Michael Bode and Jacob Rosen partnered up to break down seven potential Cleveland Indians infield targets on the MLB trade market. Some of the names below have been mentioned in connection with the Indians already. Others, not as much, but they’re rumored to be potentially available anyway and could be logical fits.
Contract details from spotrac.com unless noted otherwise.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Contract Status: Signed for six years and $118.5 million. Free agent after 2021 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Ludicrous. Carlos Carrasco plus a top prospect would not be out of the question as an asking price.
Trade Likelihood: Unknown. Ken Rosenthal reported the Braves are or were shopping Freeman. But, John Coppollela (Atlanta GM) says they are not. The Braves might be pulling back on their aggression after receiving some fan blow-back upon trading Andrelton Simmons or they might be merely posturing.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: This just seems completely unreasonable to me. Freddie Freeman is a very good hitter. You can see that quite clearly above. But the largest contract in Indians history was Travis Hafner’s four-year $57 million extension. Freeman’s remaining deal is more than double that amount. In addition, not only would it be a gigantic gamble of dollars and cents, but the Indians would need to give up assets? A Carlos Carrasco and prospect(s)? I do not see this happening at all. Again, Freeman is good. But there is no possible fit here for the Indians.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Yes, his numbers fell off a bit in 2015, but he did sit out the last weekend due to a wrist injury that reportedly plagued him for portions of the season. Regardless, he is young, he is signed for six more seasons, and he is a difference-making offensive threat. I understand a small market team like the Indians committing to paying a single player $20 million per year is a huge risk, but the reward is worth it. There is a reason Atlanta pulled him off the market (supposedly).
Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
Contract Status: Arbitration-2 in 2016, estimated at $2.5 million by MLB Trade Rumors. Free agent after 2017 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Moderate. Mid-level prospects might be enough to pry him away as his overall production is mitigated by problematic health issues.
Trade Likelihood: High. Wil Myers is potentially moving to first base to take his position. And Alonso has spent significant portions of each of the last three seasons on the disabled list (including a stress reaction in his lower back in 2015). The Padres may then look to finally move the oft-rumored player.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: I feel somewhat bad for the Padres. It’s been four years since they acquired Alonso in the Mat Latos deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Since then, Alonso has only played in 110 games per season. And last offseason, almost every single one of the Padres moves was a complete disaster. It was somewhat predictable, of course. But it doesn’t make it easy. The team already moved Craig Kimbrel to the Boston Red Sox for a minor fortune. Alonso could be moved next, but he’s not very expensive since his health issues have robbed him of possible arbitration value. If the Indians could somehow grab him for just a few mid-level prospects, then I’d be in. Seems like an easy move to make.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Alonso is one of the more “gettable” players mentioned in either article and a player who has at least an average bat and can provide some impact defense as well. Acquiring Alonso does cause some complications with Carlos Santana as they both play first base and Michael Brantley will need the designated-hitter slot when he initially comes back from his injury. However, it is a problem worth figuring out. Alonso shouldn’t be the only deal the Indians make, but he’d be a nice start if the asking price is reasonable.
Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
Contract Status: Signed for one year at $7.5 million. Arbitration-3 in 2017. Free agent after 2017 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: ESPN’s Jayson Stark notes the Reds want “MLB ready players and a big return” for Frazier. Danny Salazar might be tantalizing for the Reds as they look to get younger, though they might require an additional prospect too.
Trade Likelihood: Decently significant. The Reds are going through a rebuild and Frazier’s peak is now. The only issue will be finding another team that matches their value for Frazier.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: I have lots of thoughts on Todd Frazier. He’s a good, solid hitter. He’s quite a good player. And his contract value isn’t bad. But, Cincinnati fans and management have a right to over-appreciate his value — similar to how Cleveland fans might under-appreciate Carlos Santana’s value. In both cases, it might make any possible trade unlikely. Frazier seems destined for a big market, say a New York or a Boston, where a team can legitimately rationalize giving up a high bounty back to Cincinnati for the right to pay a 30-year-old third baseman for two more years. The Indians do not have that luxury. I think Frazier would be an excellent fit on the Tribe, providing insurance for Giovany Urshela’s offensive development, an clearly above-average bat, and some defensive versatility to slide over to first base. I would just love to do a deal for Cody Anderson or Josh Tomlin, plus prospects.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Frazier is an impact bat at third base where there is offensive scarcity. His value will be high on the market and could preclude the Indians from making a deal. I’m not comfortable giving up so many years of team controlled pitching from any of our Big Three guys for him, and the Reds might not accept less.
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
Contract Status: Signed for two years and $27 million. Free agent after 2017 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Moderate prospects, although the Reds want players MLB ready or close. Cody Anderson or similar level player should be enough to pry him away.
Trade Likelihood: Decently significant. Phillips’ peak is well behind him and the Reds need to acquire as many future assets as they can.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Hahahah. … Sorry, I had to get that one out. It’s pretty incredible how Brandon Phillips has had a very solid — albeit overrated — MLB career since his early days fighting with Eric Wedge. Sure, he’s made three All-Star Games. But he’s been nowhere near worth the massive 10-year $98 million extension that he signed forever ago. In 10 full years with the Reds, he has averaged a .278/.325/.430 batting line with 29.6 rWAR and 30.7 fWAR. That’s really not bad at all and borderline All-Star production in any given year. Cincinnati just likely expected much more after his first few years of solid production. Now that he has this much money left, I’m not certain how a return to Cleveland makes much sense. It would also require further defensive rearranging that doesn’t seem to be worth the cost.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Had to put together some outside-the-box thinking for this. Acquiring Phillips would require shifting Kipnis to left field/designated hitter and sharing those duties with Michael Brantley when he returns. Given Kipnis injuries leading to second half number fall offs, it might not be the worst idea. The Reds might find a depressed market due to Phillips’ age, contract, and their need to trade him. So, the Indians should begin talks seeing if they would be willing to grab a potentially younger version of Phillips in Jose Ramirez.
Martin Prado, Miami Marlins
Contract Status: Signed for one year at $11 million with the New York Yankees paying $3 million of his contract. Free agent after 2016 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: A moderately priced player with great positional flexibility has become a valued asset in MLB, as Ben Zobrist has demonstrated. Prado might fetch more than most would initially believe, but he should be able to be pried without sacrificing any of the Indians top pitchers or prospects (just multiple players from the next tier might be required).
Trade Likelihood: Medium. The Marlins were rumored to be shopping him in July and August, but ultimately did not pull the trigger. Prado is a moderately priced player, but if the Marlins trade Jose Fernandez (as rumored), then the veteran Prado would have little utility on a suddenly rebuilding team.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Prado has played primarily at third base during his career, where his value might be most significant to the Indians. He’s also played over 250 games at both second base and left field. But he’s a solid hitter — he’d instantly be one of the most proven bats on the team — and a far better version of a Mike Aviles-type utility player that the Indians have had over the years. I think I’d be pretty interested in this deal. As I’ve said before, I’m not completely sold on the undersized Rob Kaminsky, who was acquired for Brandon Moss from the Cardinals, so perhaps he could be moved again in a deal for Prado.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: The “other Ben Zobrist” is a reasonably priced player on a team that might be rebuilding. If Miami is looking to compete in 2016, then they need Prado. If they want to rebuild, then he’s sort of useless to them. It’ll be interesting to see what other moves they do first. The Yankees are known to value him as well, so the Indians will have to be careful not to get into a bidding war, but I am a fan.
Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers
Contract Status: Signed for one year and $8 million. Free agent after 2016 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Moderate prospects. The short nature of his contract will dampen the overall price needed to acquire him though his potential power is scarce on in the current MLB marketplace.
Trade Likelihood: High. Similar to the Reds, the Brewers see the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs dominating the National League Central and realize they must rebuild for future seasons to compete. Lind’s value will only decrease the longer they hold onto him.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: The left-handed hitting Lind was a productive bat in his nine years for the Toronto Blue Jays before being traded last offseason for starter Marco Estrada. Since 2009, Lind has averaged 130 games per season, 27 doubles, 21 homers and a .274/.336/.472 batting line. That’s pretty impressive offensive production. But notably, he hasn’t played the outfield since 2010. He’s been strictly limited to first base and designated hitter, which would clog up Carlos Santana’s position and the options for Michael Brantley once he returns from injury. Lind is good. He’s also on a relatively affordable one-year deal. But acquiring a player with this type of defensive profile doesn’t seem like a good use of resources.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: A power hitter priced to sell. Lind really just feels like a move the Indians will make to acquire this season’s Mark Reynolds or Brandon Moss. The difference is Lind is a better player offensively than either of those guys. Just close your eyes when he is on defense. Not the biggest fan of grabbing defense-deficient players, but desperate teams for hitting do need to take risks.
Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers
Contract Status: Arbitration-3 in 2016, estimated at $5.6 million by MLB Trade Rumors. Free agent after 2016 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Fairly unknown. But since the Rangers just won 88 games and are not in rebuilding mode, it wouldn’t make much sense to unload him for only mid-level prospects.
Trade Likelihood: Low. Texas has had no indications of wanting to trade him, although he is positionally blocked by Prince Fielder at first base. The Rangers also do have several left-handed top prospects coming up through their system though, so they could look to shop Moreland, but the odds are better that they wait until the trade deadline at the earliest.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Last season, Moreland played 120 games at first base and Prince Fielder played only 18. Both had injury-ravaged 2014 seasons, which was Fielder’s first in Texas. Moreland has historically been a solid defensive first basemen, so he’d likely be an upgrade over Carlos Santana at that spot. He’s also less expensive than Lind, although a less proven hitter — although he had a career season in 2015. Texas is likely eyeing potential opportunities here, but the return would have to be perfect. Maybe Josh Tomlin or Cody Anderson could get it done. But, for one year of Mitch Moreland? That wouldn’t seem ideal to me.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: I don’t think Texas would consider trading him unless someone overpayed for him and I do not think Moreland is worth overpaying to get. The prospects coming are not yet proven, so the Rangers likely want to keep him on for awhile until they know they can replace him.
Justin Morneau, Unrestricted Free Agent
Contract Status: UFA
Expected Level of Compensation: Concussion issues might depress his market, and there are rumors that he is interested in a return to Minnesota. He is the type of lower-priced hitter with a decently high ceiling the Indians should be looking at this winter.
Trade Likelihood: N/A
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Morneau is one of those hitters that I should have mentioned during my non-qualifying offer free agent piece. He’s had some rough concussion luck for many years now. During his 2006-09 peak, he averaged .292/.364/.516 with 36 doubles, 30 homers and 118 RBI. He was then having a great 2010 All-Star season, but played only 81 games. He had solid production in Colorado, but note the home/road splits: .342/.379/.531 at Coors Field, .290/.348/.441 elsewhere. Those road numbers aren’t bad by any means. They’re perfectly average. It just should give additional cause for concern about giving Morneau any significant money. I’d probably pass here.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Cheating here with a free agent, but he’s the type of guy the Indians might be able to sign on the open market. He has enough power to get by, and Morneau has proven he is an above average bat even as he gets older. The main question is if he can get past his injuries and what type of guaranteed money it would take to pry him away from a return trip to Minnesota.
5 Comments
I really enjoyed both the IF and OF articles. I feel a little relieved, too, because based on these, it seems unlikely that Carrasco or Salazar will be dealt. Seems the only bats that would be in play for 1 of them (due to quality, being MLB-established, and under team control) would be Puig and Freeman, & it’s not even known how available they are. I could talk my way into accepting a deal for one of those 2 i guess.
It would test my theory that if the Indians had a few more All Star-type hitters, and still contended for a playoff spot, they’d catch fire more with their casual fans and attendance would improve.
But I am still kind of stunned from last July, from first hearing that Carrasco was considered available then. That team clearly wants/is able to contend in one way- team controlled quality at reasonable cost. I can’t get my head around trading a true #2 who is signed for several seasons. And I’m old-school enough to insist you can never have enough pitching.
The ToddFather, how? No thanks on Morneau and Brandon Phillips, that’s just a cruel reminder.
I actually would like Phillips on this team, if moving Kipnis back to the OF is indeed an option as whispered. Phillips still plays a great, gold-glove level 2B (including range, to my eyes at least). While he isn’t the hitter he used to be, he’s RH & seems to at least make loud sounds hitting the ball a couple times a game (we need more of those)! He would stretch the batting order a little more. He actually is willing to be and has been used at every spot in the top half of the order, including leadoff when he’s been needed there. A nice piece for a contender (that will take some salary).
Imagine if they had something like five of the top 25 hitters in the league, and won 93 games. That would certainly draw in the crowds, right? They might get all the way up to 12th of 14 AL teams.
I firmly believe that Carrasco was never really available, unless, you know the Cubs wanted to give up Rizzo or Bryant or something like that. The Blue Jays offered Norris, Pompey, and Hoffman, and the Indians said no. And Norris and Pompey could have helped the major league roster immediately.
Would love Morneau, someone who beat us regularly. And trade all the kids except the big two at Akron and one at Lynchburg for an OF. And if Aguilar hits in ST move Santana with Johnson at 3b.
That would make Kipnis, Naquin, Lindor, Stud, Johnson, Gomes, Morneau,Chisenhall, Aguilar until
Brantley comes back. Not Shabby.