Cleveland Browns Week 10 Winners and Losers
November 16, 2015J.T. Barrett is “truly sorry” and “moving forward” following OVI
November 16, 2015As Thanksgiving approaches, the Major League Baseball hot stove is beginning to heat up. Some of the offseason’s biggest free agents already have decided on their 2016 landing spots. The Cleveland Indians, coming off a disappointing 81-80 season, are expected to have a busy winter.
But the Indians aren’t expected to make a big splash in free agency. Sure, the team could add a complementary piece or two via the open market. There are a handful of options that could be good fits. Instead, the team’s most likely maneuver to short- and medium-term competition is expected to be through the trade market.
Clearly, the team has three high-end starting pitchers — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar — and a handful of other pitching/prospect assets that could be very useful to other teams in an exchange. The Indians appear to be in desperate need for more hitting talent, especially in the outfield and particularly so with Michael Brantley’s injury.
Thus, WFNY’s Michael Bode and Jacob Rosen partnered up to break down seven potential Cleveland Indians outfield targets on the MLB trade market. Some of the names below have been mentioned frequently in connection with the Indians already. Others, not as much, but they’re rumored to be potentially available anyway and could be logical fits.
A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Status: Arbitration-1 in 2016, estimated at $4.3 million by MLB Trade Rumors. Free agent after 2018 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: A premier starting pitcher would likely be needed to pry away a premier hitter. Carlos Carrasco fits the bill.
Trade Likelihood: Low. All rumors to this point demonstrate Arizona attempting to sign Pollock to a long-term deal. Michael Brantley’s extension could be used as a potential baseline for the negotiations. Teams typically do not tend to trade team-controlled assets as good as Pollock. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian mentioned, perhaps Pollock’s teammate Ender Inciarte is the more available Arizona outfielder.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: You might not know his name, but Pollock just had an incredible 2015 season. The Diamondbacks were one of the very few teams historically to ever have two players as good as Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt (8.8 rWAR, 7.4 fWAR) and yet still miss the playoffs. My two main questions on Pollock: Would the Indians be buying at too high of a price? And, how good offensively is he really? A right-handed bat, his counting stats were obscenely good in 2015 and he had an identical .498 slugging percentage in 2014 as well. We know that he’s a good defensive centerfielder, although his UZR/150 has declined in back-to-back years. The stars just might be aligning a bit too much for him to potentially be available. Since he’s just now getting into arbitration, he’s one of the better contract values in the league. That likely would be reflected in the need for one of Cleveland’s Big Three starters. And that might be too much of an ask.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Who is A.J. Pollock? His best approximation might be of a pre-injury right-handed version of Grady Sizemore. So, yes, the Diamondbacks are likely asking for a near-elite starting pitcher if you want a near-elite hitter in return especially given the MLB pitching-friendly status of this era. Pollock won the Gold Glove for his 2015 season though (as is often the case) it was more of an award for what he has done through the years. Despite only a season and a half of Pollock playing at this level, it would be surprising to see him actually shopped rather than merely rumored. As for Inciarte, he is a fine enough player, but the left-handed hitter is not enough of an upgrade for Lonnie Chisenhall to make him an exciting addition though he is the type of player who might be available for a Cody Anderson level pitcher.
Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Status: Signed for three years and $26.4 million. Free agent after the 2019 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: The moon and the stars. Given the Dodgers dangling of Puig, yet not actually trading him away, most believe Puig would not come at a discount. Yet, there remain rumors of apparent exasperation with him from some in the Dodger organization.
Trade Likelihood: ?? Puig was subject to many rumors at the 2015 MLB trade deadline. The Dodgers did put him on waivers in August. But, they pulled him back once another team put a claim on him. Also, a contentious relationship with Dodger free agent Zach Greinke could factor into the equation (or not).
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: It seems that everyone has an opinion on Yasiel Puig. So, let the record state: I’m a big fan. Yes, his 2015 season was marred by injuries and worse offensive production than his first two MLB campaigns. His effort level and clubhouse attitude seem to always be in question. But as a soon-to-be 25-year-old, his combination of proven production and long-term upside intrigues me the most out of anyone on this list. Puig is a really good player and the Dodgers are right to be asking for the moon and the stars in return. The Dodgers are the closest in today’s game to the old-school New York Yankees. They have all the money in the world and can value their current assets at whatever price they’d desire because they can. They’re also likely smarter than those old Yankees and can see the value in a cost-controlled Puig throughout his remaining prime years.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Despite his issues, Puig is one of my favorite players in MLB. The major concerning item is his reported lack of discipline in training, though given his abilities it seems hard to fathom he isn’t in the cage. Regardless, there are few talents of his stature in today’s game and the Dodgers are absolutely correct in asking anything they can for him. For the Indians, the trade likely starts at Carlos Carrasco. It’s a steep price, but the Indians should at least be listening because one of the crazier parts of the Puig story is he seems to have an even higher ceiling than the one which has seen him dominate MLB thus far (assuming he passes medical examinations after his hamstrings betrayed him in 2015).
Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
Contract Status: Signed for three years and $37.5 million, followed by $12.5 million team option or $2 million buyout.
Expected Level of Compensation: The Yankees reportedly are looking for a 2016 starting pitcher in exchange for Brett Gardner. Given his age and contract, an end-of-the-rotation starter might be enough.
Trade Likelihood: Medium. The Yankees were reportedly discussing a potential trade of Gardner to the Seattle Mariners, though it is unknown if Seattle’s re-signing of Franklin Guiterrez and acquisition of Boog Powell put an end to those discussions.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Two things are immediately concerning about Gardner: the price tag and the declining defense. For a team like the Indians, eight-figure guaranteed salaries — especially for three years — are a very big deal. Gardner turned 32 in August and has been an average defensive outfielder for three seasons now, after being one of baseball’s best earlier in his career. He’s still a solid hitter, though, and an overall good player, but memories of Michael Bourn’s late-career collapse could give some cause for concern about how he’ll perform in 2017 and 2018. In a dream scenario, the Yankees might be willing to take on some of Gardner’s money in exchange for an additional prospect. But a Cleveland-and-New York deal just seems pretty far-fetched to me.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Would New York be willing to take back Chris Johnson if we upped the prospect value we returned? Admittedly, a dream scenario there. New York would obviously have to pay down Gardner’s contract for any potential deal to happen. If they are focused on competing with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2016 for the AL East though, then we might be able to work something out. I’m not as down on the possibility as Jacob, but there are definitely more hurdles to go through than if the Yankees found another suitor for Gardner who could assume his contract more readily.
Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins
Contract Status: Final pre-arbitration (minimum salary) season in 2016. Free agent after the 2019 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: High-end pitching, such as Carrasco or Danny Salazar, is the message being delivered to prospective suitors.
Trade Likelihood: Fairly high. Despite the team’s insistence on receiving nothing less than “market value” for Ozuna, the public clashes with owner Jeffrey Loria might lead to lowering those demands. The Indians often have been labeled as a potential landing spot.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Ozuna has been directly linked to the Indians more often than any other player on this list. Nobody ever knows what’s going to happen to the future outlook of any Marlins player. And that uncertainty is heightened further because of the organization’s recent GM/manager changes. Ozuna, a right-handed hitter who turned 25 last week, skipped Triple-A in his quick journey to the majors in 2013. He continued his ascenion to possible stardom with big 2014, then regressed heavily last season. Is his even-year/odd-year discrepancy going to be a trend, such as Ryan Raburn? Which Ozuna will a team see in 2016 and beyond? He’s certainly a question mark, but would slot immediately into the team’s outfield. Defense isn’t his key strength, yet he’d immediately be the team’s most experienced center fielder. I’m interested in Ozuna. Just probably not at the price of one of the Big Three.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Mike Chernoff (remember, he’s now the Indians GM) should chuckle when they ask for one of our elite pitchers before asking them what they really want in return. If the Marlins do want such a pitcher, then the conversation is over as Ozuna does not have the MLB track record to back up such a price tag. What Ozuna does have though is a ton of potential as a power right-handed bat who might be able to handle center field (mixed opinions on staying in center). While he might not be worth our elite pitchers, Ozuna is the first guy on this list who I would want from the next tier.
Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
Contract Status: Final pre-arbitration (minimum salary) season in 2016. Free agent after the 2020 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Boston media is already putting rumors out about Carrasco, Salazar, and they also mention Corey Kluber. Those targets might be lofty, but it’s the Red Sox and Bradley won over a ton of fans with his second-half performance.
Trade Likelihood: Low. The Red Sox seem to be aiming too high in the return for a potential Bradley trade. Most analysts disliked the massive minor-league bounty they tossed over to San Diego for expensive closer Craig Kimbrel. Just as new President Dave Dombrowski did with the Detroit Tigers, it appears he’s putting a massive valuation on current major league talent.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: This would be a defensive upgrade, first and foremost. Bradley’s 74-game hitting sample of 2015 was quite good, but a likely aberration in the face of his previous 164 major league games. In 165 Triple-A games, he batted .281/.365/.451. Yes, he’s young, and yes, those minor league offensive numbers are pretty good too. I just don’t buy him as a plus major league bat just yet. The Indians still would need more offense if he was the offseason’s major acquisition. Instead, he showcased his skills as one of the game’s premier outfielders last season. He’s a human highlight reel in the outfield and had by far the best defensive numbers last season than anyone on this list. I don’t see a potential pairing with the Indians making that much sense because it’s difficult to rationalize trading away one of the Big Three for a player with his offensive track record. Dream on, Boston media folks.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: Given Dombrowski’s penchant for bankrupting a farm system, I would much rather see if he was interested in Josh Tomlin for high-level prospects even if we then turned those around on a different player from this list. Bradley is the best defender here, but the Indians desperately need an impact bat, and I do not trust Bradley there. Overall, Bradley seems as if we would be buying high, and the Indians cannot afford to do so. Besides, we could always see if Chisenhall can handle center field.
Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs
Contract Status: Signed for five years and $21.3 million. Free agent after the 2020 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: The Cubs want pitching and Soler is team-controlled at an affordable rate through 2020, so it would be a somewhat significant price.
Trade Likelihood: It depends. If the Cubs want Carrasco or Salazar, then low. But, if they are willing to take back Cody Anderson and additional prospect considerations, then it significantly ratchets up the possibility. The Cubs are in win-now mode, but are likely going to be less demanding for immediate major-league talent than the Red Sox.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: The big caveat with Soler: If the Indians are targeting 2016-17 as their main competitive window for this current core, then does he fit? Sure, Wahoos on First’s Steve Kinsella has petitioned to ban the word “window” in the context of roster-building. It is a bit too black-and-white compared to the nuance of MLB roster decisions. But it is fair to point out how many of Cleveland’s current main contributors are in their prime or approaching the end of their expected prime. Corey Kluber and Carlos Santana turn 30 years old in April. Jason Kipnis turns 29 in April and Michael Brantley turns 29 in May. Soler is a long-term gamble. His upside is high and his cost-controlled contract is certainly tantalizing. I just question how it could be seen as an improvement for 2016 if the Indians have to give up on a major starting pitcher for a player with less than one career WAR.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: I have not been a fan of Soler. He oftentimes looked lost in the field, and his approach at the plate was chaotic and over-aggressive. It honestly shocked me to see his OBP numbers were as high as they are though given my feelings on him, which do portend to some long-term upside. Obviously, a pick for Soler would be to ignore his defensive deficiencies (outside his plus arm) and focus on the potential impact of what could become a right-handed power bat in the lineup. While I wouldn’t give up one of the Big Three starters for him, I disagree with Jacob on him not making an impact in 2016-2017. If Soler is going to succeed in MLB, then the next two years should demonstrate it. Besides, if he just hits his career 106 wRC+, then he’d be helping the Indians offense. And, if we needed to bring him along slowly, making him a powerful platoon partner with Lonnie Chisenhall in right field could make an immediate impact above his career numbers.
Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics
Contract Status: Arbitration-3 in 2016, estimated at $7.0 million by MLB Trade Rumors. Free agent after 2016 season.
Expected Level of Compensation: Given his 2016 free agency status, an end-of-the-rotation starter and/or some prospects would likely be enough for Reddick.
Trade Likelihood: Low-medium. No player is ever considered safe on the Athletics, especially when there is only one more year of team control remaining. Yet, Billy Beane has said multiple times that a Reddick trade is unlikely and he even could be a possible extension candidate. It’s difficult to ever predict what’s happening with the A’s.
Jacob Rosen’s thoughts: Reddick is perhaps no longer a sexy name compared to his early-career days in Boston. But he’s continued to be solidly productive, batting .251/.315/.439 in his four full seasons with the A’s. His 2013 offensive numbers seem to be the main outlier in his full-season career statistics. He also posted well above average defensive statistics in every season but 2015. And he turns 29 in February, matching up on the age curve with many of the other current Indians stars. His $7 million price tag is in the Indians range, too. Billy Beane and Co. obviously know of all of these facts, so he won’t come at too cheap of a price in terms of corresponding assets. But this might be my favorite move, if he’s actually available. Reddick remains a productive player and if he could be acquired for anything but a Big Three starter, it’d be a significant upgrade for the outfield.
Michael Bode’s thoughts: As much of a fan as I am of Lonnie Chisenhall, obtaining the slightly older, more expensive, less defensive version is not high on my list. Allright, not exactly fair as Reddick has a far superior MLB hitting track record. Still, getting a one year loan with the left-handed hitting Reddick for Cody Anderson (and potentially another prospect) seems a bit of an overpay. I would listen in on Reddick, but would prefer gambling on someone with more upside (defensively and offensively) who the Indians would keep longer. Yes, even if the Indians had to pay a higher price.
48 Comments
I’ll add another name to this list: Charlie Blackmon. He’s not a free agent right now, and he is Arb-1 eligible next season, but he’s just about 30, and you’d have to think that Colorado would want to deal him before his decline, even though he would be cheap next season. Plus, since they just traded Tulo, now might be the time to dismantle it all and start over. (So, also look for Carlos Gonzalez, too, who is not as good as his salary, and could come at a discount).
While Blackmon’s numbers compare favorably to Pollock’s (17 HR, 43 SB), his price tag could be different, which is key, since he may be had for prospects instead of bona fide major league starters. He’s not a very good left fielder but – guess what? – the Tribe already has one of those! Plus, he can play all 3 OF positions if needed.
If the Tribe could be willing to spend just a little extra this offseason, they could re-tool their OF to the point that they become instant World Series contenders, thanks to the Colorado Rockies.
what’d it take to sign Cespedes? This is a general comment that realizes this post pertains to the Tribe…
I’m guessing 7/$165, although the Series performance put a damper on his value.
Thank you for the addition. We tried to keep it to guys already in the rumor mill above, but he definitely fits the profile as well (though another left-handed bat and defensively not as good as most above). I like him more than Inciarte, but not as much as Pollock.
I’ve noticed some sites and a few others no longer list RBIs. Why is that?
Limited space for stats and RBIs are a measure of teammates and batting order position as much as anything else. I’m not as down on them as some, but they are extremely limited in using for projection (which an article such as this one needs to convey to a degree).
Those last couple years gonna be Verlander-Ryan Howard ish
Don’t see any way possible unless Dan Gilbert becomes a partner.
Not bad although I would tend to believe his price will be to high.
JB Jr. will require to much the fact that Dombrowski was able to land Kimbrel for lesser Red Sox prospects tells me Bradley’s value is much higher.
Ok thanks. I’m sure RBIs could replace something like Caught Stealing–especially when we desperately need a power hitter. But I see your point overall.
CS was added almost exclusively for Puig 🙂
With Jacob and myself big fans, we needed to show some of the cracks in his profile too 🙂
Lesser Red Sox prospects? C’mon man. Outside Boston, few believe Boston won that deal. It will help them in 2016 though.
I do agree Boston’s valuation of Bradley and the rest of MLB valuation will be different. Just not a long enough track record from him, which is fine. Play it out and hope he can continue it.
Those similarity scores don’t take into account the Coors Field effect. And despite similar numbers to Pollack, he’s about 30 points behind in OPS+. Blackmon is a league average hitter who has good numbers because Coors gives almost everybody good numbers.
I can’t speak to his defensive ability, but I’ve seen enough corner-OF, should be DHs on this team. A DH doesn’t hurt, but after watching this team catch the ball pretty darn well in the second half, I’d like to keep going down that path.
I’d say that the Kimbrel trade is a sign that the Red Sox will be willing to pay a high price for even more pitching. They aren’t going to half-ass their attempt to contend this year.
Outs created, even on the bases, still tell us more about a player than how many people were on base in front of him.
Anyone who tries to label a trade as “winning” or “losing” in November for baseball is probably a blogger. To get you must give and that’s what the Sox did. I’m okay with it. Although I will be interested to see how Kimbrel adjusts to being in the AL now. Now to get some starting pitching!
I don’t know what they were doing last year I guess they thought Buchholz would bounce back and the kid from Detroit would continue his upswing but it never happened. As everyone who follows baseball knows pitching costs. It will just be interesting to see if Dombrowski sells the farm or not. Personally I’m hoping he finds a middle ground spend the cash but try to save the prospects.
FanGraphs: 6/$128M. MLB Trade Rumors: 6/$140M. CBS Sports: 6/$150M.
I need to learn some of these new terms. I have no idea what they mean. have to change with the times.
I’m a fan too.
Btw just a minor side note..Jorge Soler can actually opt out of his contract and into arbitration when he gets enough service time.
or that’s what baseball-reference says.
Interesting. Spotrac and MLBTR don’t have that option listed. Either way though, he’s still a somewhat cheap option for the forseeable future.
Hopefully, these primers are a decent starting spot:
Hitting: https://waitingfornextyear.com/2015/07/cleveland-indians-advanced-hiting-stats/
Pitching: https://waitingfornextyear.com/2015/07/making-sense-of-advanced-pitching-statistics/
We’ll give you Chris Johnson if you want to spend cash 🙂
(yes, I get what you are saying and generally agree.)
Need starting pitching most of all.
Most good hitters are good hitter irrespective of the statistical labels designated. New school is just like everything else new, overblown, overstated and overused.
Deal. Chris Johnson and Josh Tomlin for Jackie Bradley 😉
Let me call Ray Farmer and see what he thinks…brb!
6 years for 120, I would do that all day, he would be perfect for the tribe, too bad it will never happen…
6 for 120 is a pipe dream. I’d kick in $50 if they could sign him for that.
I’m a huge CS fan. if you show SBs i feel it’s only right to show CS. it completes the measurement. 10 for 10 is more impressive than 30 for 50.
you can still steal a base with someone in front of you.
Yes, but in the cases above, the only one where it mattered was Puig as the rest were pretty similar.
Is at that per year rate, but only 4 more years (less risk) and a similar value hitter. He would cost prospects too though.
Thanks.
Yea I hear that. I was just saying that when I watch baseball talk on tv now I am completely clueless. Watched a free agency predicition show on MLB TV and felt like I was back in stats class in college–completely lost. Have to learn the new lingo 🙁
I’m just old school I guess(even though I’m 28). When I want to learn about a potential cleanup hitter I want HRs and RBIs for stats. But I understand the times they are a changing.
MLB Network has a lot of those those most specifically Brian Kenny who I avoid.
If you aren’t interested in more than “good hitter”, then sure, you can use stats that were rejected 150 years ago because even then, people realized their serious shortcomings. In fact, it was the original sabermetrician, Henry Chadwick, who pushed to use batting average and RBI, the first “new school . . . overblown, overstated, and overused” numbers.
But if you want to understand with a little more detail about just how “good”, how much each player contributes to a team’s offense and how reliable those numbers are in predicting what the player will continue to do, then you need to use something more than AVG and RBI. The 20 year old beater of a car can get you from A to B, but there are plenty of alternatives that can do so better, more efficiently, and more reliably.
It was like they were speaking a different language. “His Rwar was 2.4 and his….etc…”
Why in the world would anyone consider trading Kluber or Carrasco. That is just insane. If either of these guys were FA they would be getting record MLB contracts and the Indians have them locked up for years. You just dont trade Cy Young quality pitching with long term contracts.
I’m sure Boston and Arizona are stoking rumors. I’m going down to the local Maserati dealership and letting them know my really nice, low milage Highlander could be had for one of those beauties on their floor……..
Oh what the hell, throw in Brian Shaw too.
It would be tough, it likely would not happen, but here is the argument.
Carlos Carrasco would likely be near the top of the SP market if he were a UFA. Instead, he is a young, controlled asset for the forseeable future at a reasonable rate.
However, A.J. Pollock is also a young, controlled asset for the forseeable future at a reasonable rate. He is also a hitter at a premium defensive position. Right now, MLB is pitching-heavy and hitting-poor. Right now, Indians are pitching-heavy and hitting-poor. A trade helps balance the Indians and the thought would be Carrasco’s replacements would fare better than whoever we shove out in CF next year w/o Pollock.
All conjecture of course.
Mike, just wanted to say you and Jacob do a great job here. God knows I can’t keep up iwht the statistical acronyms, more of a HR, avg and rbi guy. It’s enjoyable read of intelligent coverage, and good comments.
I’m waiting for Frasier or Zimmer before I trade CY pitching for a guy who has had a good year and a half.
First, thank you very much. Always appreciated and the comments here are always the best.
don’t forget the “other” Bradley. Bobby Bradley might become the power hitter we all crave. just I don’t expect any of those 3 guys to do much (or anything) in 2016. and, I expect they’ll have bumps in 2017.
if we want to take advantage of our next 2 years with Brantley, Kluber, Santana, and Kipnis, then we need to do something for our lineup now.
I don’t think we will trade Carrasco/Salazar, but if a hitter comes along worthy of the price, then I would at least listen.
2017 is the year. I believe Bautista and Encarnacion are both in option years this year….. maybe going up against John Hart’s Braves in the series….. You heard it here first.