Know Your Opponent: Minnesota Golden Gophers
November 6, 2015PSA: NFL Network premieres “Paul Brown: A Football Life” tonight
November 6, 2015The Cleveland Browns’ 2015 season is lost, but we’re still talking about it because they’re the Browns. This is an email conversation between Michael Bode and me regarding the Browns and some of the “hot topics” that are currently chasing the team through the media. First up, we discuss if the Browns should fire Ray Farmer.
Craig: Ray Farmer started the year suspended because he broke the texting rules, sending communques to the Cleveland Browns sideline. That was supposed to be the punchline for the year after he had such a “smart” draft grabbing Danny Shelton, Cam Erving, Nate Orchard, and Duke Johnson. As the team fails miserably on the field, it’s served to “expose” the GM and every bad move he made, from Dwayne Bowe to waiting so long to trade Terrance West and nail down his running back starters. As we head toward the bye week I feel like the story isn’t over yet, but there’s no doubt with each extra week of losing added to the list, the talk gets louder and louder for changes in the Browns’ front office. I’m not completely on a side yet. Do you have a firm position yet, or is it still wait-and-see mode for you with regard to Ray Farmer?
Michael: Ray Farmer is a hard case for me. Unlike Mike Pettine, he does not “win” the press conference, which is an important litmus test for me. Being able to intelligently discuss past decisions and the rationale behind them should be rather simple if they are based on sound decision-making. Explain the rationale, explain why it did not work or has not yet worked, and move on. Also, texting the sidelines during the game and the general mixed roles between Alec Scheiner, Ray Farmer, and the coaching staff leaves me uneasy. Running a NFL organization is difficult enough when people are completely focused on their individual roles.
But as you brought up, his drafts have initially been lauded, including by myself. It is difficult for me to sit and crush someone in hindsight when I wrote a pre-draft blueprint and the Browns fell well within its framework. Danny Shelton has not yet been Haloti Ngata, but he has not been the problem on defense either. Cameron Erving was an insurance pick against Alex Mack leaving. It was going to be tough for him to crack the offensive line starting unit especially when the Browns made him learn all of the positions rather than have him compete straight-up with John Greco (who has played well). The 2014 Browns draft obviously is looking pretty terrible in hindsight, but, again, I was a fan of Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel, and especially Joel Bitonio (hey, he is working out) coming out of that draft too. Sure, we’d all love to have Odell Beckham Jr., but he was a huge injury risk at the time.
Sorry, I ramble; it’s a tough question. I completely understand why people are upset and want Ray Farmer gone, and his press conference this week certainly did him no favors. But I also see some glimmers of hope in the process, especially if everyone just sticks to their own freaking jobs.
Craig: That’s such a big part of the equation for me. The job is to have a process — one of continuous improvement — and to try and evaluate yourself and your team and do the best you can to not repeat mistakes. The Browns seem to keep hiring inexperienced people and then fire them before they can learn from their mistakes. When they do have someone good or at least competent like I think Tom Heckert was, someone else gets out of their lane like Mike Holmgren and orchestrates a ludicrous trade-up for Trent Richardson.
That’s another part of the problem in Berea. We have no idea about their process. Just like I assume the entire Richardson/Weeden draft was Holmgren’s fault, I think Farmer deferred to Mike Pettine and Jimmy Haslam for Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel. I’ve also heard some say with legitimacy that Manziel was the only player left on their board with a first-round grade when they selected him. It’s just too easy to use hindsight to say that Bridgewater and Derek Carr were better players.
Ultimately though, all that stuff is just distractions. Jimmy Haslam has to decide if he can continue forward trusting Ray Farmer with the future of the Cleveland Browns. How much of his decision comes down to the fact that he’s already looked like the world’s most impetuous owner the way he fired Banner, Lombardi, and Chud.
Michael: To me, it is even bigger than that. What is the vision? Who is the visionary? For all of the faults of Al and Randy Lerner, they at least attempted to find football men of high regard to place their stamp on the organization. Carmen Policy, Butch Davis, and Mike Holmgren all had significant faults, but the idea from the owner was since they were not football men, they would find football men to structure the entire organization.
What do we have now? If Jimmy Haslam is the one with the vision, then he sure hasn’t spelled it out to any degree. Alec Scheiner? Hey, I have no issue with young guys and putting their stamp down. Some of the best companies in the world were started with relative young minds changing the direction of what people thought was possible. But it has to be done with full support from the owner and cleanly and, most importantly, quickly upon taking the reins. Otherwise, dissension will be there. And, I haven’t seen signs he has done so.
If you look at the best football organizations out there, you will see distinct leadership, distinct roles, and significant processes to ensure everything works together. We keep replacing the faulty sprockets when the motor is spinning out of control. How can we expect the next sprocket to do any better?
And don’t forget Haslam fired the Holmgren regime when he took over as well. And he fired Banner and Lombardi only after hiring Mike Pettine in an interview process not exactly known to be smoothly run. Not only has he looked like an impetuous owner, but he’s looked like a fool in the process (with the FBI investigation into Pilot Flying J lending an assist).
So right now, I guess I am leaning towards keeping Ray Farmer for another offseason and year, but I really don’t think it matters unless we first fix the bigger issues with the team.
Craig: Like most things with the Browns, one question leads to 100 more. Also, it’s hard for a GM to make a difference in-season. Mostly, I just think the Browns need to make an attempt at stability. Assuming Farmer has a vision for the future and it isn’t completely ridiculous you need to ride it out with him for another year.
As always I reserve the right to change my mind with additional evidence.
Now is your turn in the comments. Should the Browns fire Ray Farmer?
(In case you missed it, Craig discussed much of this on the WFNY Podcast.)
44 Comments
I have preached the word of consistency from my internet pulpit for several years now, and with renewed vigor during Haslam’s tenure. My hypothetical justification always came from the simple position that constant change has not worked, and that I would rather have a “bad” front office of relative novices get “good” after four years than five years of three bad front offices. Also of note is the fact that Haslam has fired himself into a corner- while these jobs are in fact coveted in the NFL, ours still look to be the worst option for potential hires.
However, it’s hard not to think that Haslam cried wolf with Banner and Chud, and they were certainly scary, as was Shanahan’s sheep clothing, as were several regimes before Haslam arrived to an assuredly dangerous part of the forest. Now, he finds himself with the actual wolf in Farmer, the legit Big Bad, championing a legitimately flawed football philosophy, and the townsfolk don’t believe him.
I’ve had the same debate internally as you guys are having here. The straw that breaks the camel’s back for me though are the serious attempts to trade Joe Thomas, which if initiated by Farmer, to me are grounds in and of themselves for Farmer’s firing. Trading a legitimate HOF left tackle under an affordable contract for the next three years who has publicly stated he wants to retire a Brown is just beyond idiotic. You’re losing a piece that you’d need to use of the draft picks you received to replace and that’s going to be a crapshoot (especially given Farmer’s track record). It’s just inexcusable. So if that was Farmer’s idea, I’d can him on that basis alone.
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Hey Jimmy, fire like a Brown!
They need to find someone who played here that would have interest and understand the market.
I think you have to ride it out. The biggest question should be can they learn from mistakes or are they so bull headed that they won’t change. I also think you have to look at what they do not what they say. I also wonder from the defensive side of these guys just aren’t intelligent to grasp the concept of the scheme. I’ve heard several players complain it’s to complicated while others say it’s fairly basic and a good scheme if people would just do their jobs. There are plenty of teams that rode out losing seasons with the same staff and eventually it worked out. But all that being said, if Pettine has to go you need a coach with the same scheme and language so as not to start over from scratch. So the question there becomes is your new candidate definitely better or just different
“It’s just too easy to use hindsight to say that Bridgewater and Derek Carr were better players.”
Especially since it’s not true, In two years, it will be clear that Manziel is much better than either of them.
I think the Broncos approached Farmer. Shame on him for even considering trading Thomas, but I believe Farmer when he says he wasn’t shopping him.
I know the question is starting to get asked (especially on sports talk radio) — Do you think Ray Farmer should be fired? They’re also asking, Do you think Mike Pettine should be fired? And what a terrific boost in ratings there would be if there is another implosion in the organization! I hope Jimmy Haslam has a few influential contacts in the NFL and in the non-media world counseling him to stay calm.
We hear it said around town that the Browns 2014 draft has been a bust, especially due to the first round choices. And yet we hear over and over that “everybody wants to see more of Johnny Manziel … everybody wants Johnny to be named the starter.” How can both be true? If the 2014 first round picks were such a bust, why would there be a hue and cry to turn over the most important position on the field to one of those busts? Probably closer to the truth is that, no, not everybody sees Manziel as the long-term answer at QB, most especially his coaches. Clearly there is divided opinion on No. 2. Either way, I think it’s still too early to write off the 2014 draft.
However, the most important factor, as I see it, for why Farmer and Pettine should be retained is what happened with the organization between the 2014 and 2015 drafts. They went from drafting for need (Gilbert) and glitz (Manziel) in 2014 to a fairly well-articulated philosophy of drafting “best player available” in 2015. In fact, they’ve repeated that mantra so many times I don’t know how it could have been missed as something akin to a new “vision” for this organization. They said they intend to select the best players they can find and, once they’re all in the building, they intend to play the best players, whether they’re first round picks, non-drafted free agents, or highly paid free agent signings. When Farmer took at least some credit for this change of direction in the organization at his recent press conference, he was raked over the coals. But if that change in philosophy is for real, and if they intend to stick with it for the foreseeable future, I think it’s the most significant change of direction for the Browns since Art Modell fired Paul Brown.
The next questions — and they’re big ones — are whether they can, in fact, come somewhere near the neighborhood of getting the best players and whether they can coach well enough to maximize the talent. So I’d like to see if they do persist — and firing the Browns GM and/or coach after only two years is only slightly less absurd than firing them after one year.
How do you spell Farmer? Buffoon. Time to move on. I used to look forward to the draft, now I cringe.
I wish Haslam would have hung onto Joe Banner.
I’d be more inclined to fire Mike Pettine. I think all of our players are underachieving under him, especially on defense.
I don’t think Justin Gilbert or Danny Shelton are as bad as they are playing. And I don’t think they were bad picks.
Is Tramon Williams playing at the same level he was at Green Bay? Does anyone else think that Joe Haden has regressed under Pettine?
I think coaching is everything in football. I know it’s an extreme example but look at what Jim Harbaugh has done at Michigan. Brady Hoke recruited very well during his time there, routinely finishing with top-10 classes. But his teams were horrible. His offensive line play was an absolute disaster even though they had great players. Look at them now under Harbaugh. They are a beast. All of that talent was being wasted under Hoke because he was a bad coach.
I think Mike Pettine is a smart guy who knows a lot about football but I don’t think he’s a good coach.
I’d like consistency as well and if Jimmy gave Pett another year I wouldn’t be upset but I also wouldn’t expect much in year 3.
“The Browns seem to keep hiring inexperienced people and then fire them before they can learn from their mistakes.”
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I think it’s a GM’s responsibility to listen to every offer that crosses his desk. Aside from a Brady/Rogers no player is untouchable. That doesn’t mean that player doesn’t have immense value in a potential trade. If a desperate Denver had offered the moon and stars it would be irresponsible not to give it serious consideration. From all reports it sounds like they made a not insignificant offer. Farmer considered and countered with a bigger pot of gold recognizing the value of JT. In the end the Browns were finally able to stop Elway. Maybe what Farmer did was shrewd rather than blasphemous as so many want to paint it and worthy of praise rather than scorn.
Excellent observation. Now we have to hope that JH remembers the philosophy and the time necessary to allow that philosophy to bear fruit.
I understand why you might not expect much in year three but it would be a continuation of the foolishness of the past 16 years not to allow at least a year three to play out.
Look i want stability too! I say keep Mike Pettine but get rid of Farmer!!! this is the same guy that says we do not need a top QB and we do not need a top receiver lol really? and you guys want to keep a guy with this philosophy around. our problem is lack of play makers on the offensive side which Farmer thinks we don’t need. and after listening to his latest press conference tells me he isn’t changing his philosophy anytime soon.
Disclaimer: I’m not a Ray Farmer fan. For being one of the more highly touted front office prospects when the Browns hired him, he has turned out even worse than Phil Savage. That being said:
Hall of fame LT or not, I heard the best argument about top-5 players at their position playing on losing teams a few weeks ago in a discussion about JJ Watt. He is an absolute force on defense (probably the best individual defensive player in the league) but his team is still sub-.500. The fact is that no GM worth his wear would trade even a upper-mid level QB (Rivers, Roethlisberger, Flacco types) straight up for Watt (or Thomas) because as good as they are, they just don’t effect the game enough on their own to make their awful (or mediocre, in Houston’s case) teams significantly better.
Fact of the matter is that the Browns are a 2-6 team with Joe Thomas and wouldn’t be much worse without him. Even if they turn it around in the next couple of years, Thomas will be past his prime by the time they are ready to contend for something real. I don’t know what Denver was offering, but you’d be insane to not at least listen.
Actually, he didn’t say the Browns don’t need a top QB or top WR. He and his staff felt they were getting better players than the QBs and WRs who were available at the time. You can quarrel with the team’s judgment as to who was the best player when they picked (and we’ve all taken a stab at that, I suppose) but both he and Pettine have said they’re taking the best player and, in cases of a tie, they’ll pick for need. I also think the org has made it clear they won’t do what the Redskins did to get RGIII.
Cleveland’s Farmer has one idea: What if you could design an offense to minimize the passing deficiencies of modern quarterback prospects? Farmer used the example of Auburn’s Nick Marshall, who threw 20 touchdowns last season but was projected to transition to defensive back in the NFL. What if, Farmer said, you devoted resources to designing an offense where Marshall could thrive? He would cost you almost nothing—Marshall went undrafted—and “you might get your franchise quarterback in the later rounds, and that’s unheard of these days.”
“Whoever cracks this code the soonest is going to have a huge, huge advantage,” Farmer said, adding he and his coach, Pettine, have had broad discussions on the topic.
http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2015/9/9/9298695/ray-farmer-mike-pettine-share-opinions-on-nfls-qb-problem-in-wsj
Ordinarily I would say no, as it is not exactly the sort of job that will attract an elite candidate and in firing this bozo you have further devalued the appeal of said job.
But this guy is to all appearances an utter and complete buffoon. I don’t see mentioned at length in the article his handling of free agency. If anything, his record there is even less defensible than his appalling record in the draft.
Mistakes are forgivable in hindsight if the underlying thought process going in appears to have been sound. But making almost nothing but mistakes on every single level? And making an utter fool of yourself with the rules violation?
Someone probably is going to go and I can’t think of a better candidate at the moment.
Craig: agree, the organizational morass is a huge prob. It must scare away legit replacement candidates, and probably poisons the incumbent’s performance. But having said that:
– with the maybe iffy exception of Heckert, the Browns haven’t unfairly fired any GM. What, Dwight Clark needed more experience? Pete Garcia, Mangini, Savage? Name the other NFL teams that happily scooped those guys up, in any personnel capacity. The real problem is ownership giving too much responsibility to someone who hasn’t done THAT JOB well before.
– Bode: I’m sorry, my pre-draft opinions do not and should not color a draft grade. We are lay people with limited experience, knowledge and resources. This is their life work. The org’s own expensive study, paid for by Haslam, said it was Bridgewater. If Ray’s smarter then he must ‘splain that now, and face consequences.
– the issue of who replaces Farmer is yuuuuge (Trump voice, even tho that’s already a stale joke). But another year, a further roster morph to support a run first/stop the run philosophy that, even if it would work in principle, is actually resulting in the worst run/stop the run performance in memory, is the worst of bad options.
Does sticking with Ray a third year impress a real GM, maybe one with a minor personal scandal which might lead him to accept big bucks in this football backwater? Maybe, but I doubt it. Fire Ray and stop this bleeding. Despite a crazy number of high picks, only Dwight Clark found fewer impact players. His professional immaturity – last year’s texting, the embarrassing presser last week – is just icing on the cake. If we don’t recognize incompetence here we just can’t get ourselves to accept another change is necessary.
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We didnt draft the BPA though. Not even close. This scouting system is incapable of identifying good players.
Actually this entire defense of Ray is falsehood, after falsehood, after falsehood.
Danny Shelton = run-stopping need.
Cameron Erving = needed replacement for Alex Mack.
Vince Mayle = wide receiver need.
Duke Johnson = needed RB.
Malcolm Johnson = needed TE.
Shoot, every defensive player we drafted (3x DBs).
This coupled with the fact that much better players were drafted after each of them debunks your well articled, but ultimately hollow, argument.
I still think I like his 2015 draft. I still like Shelton, Erving, Orchard and Duke. Don’t love them yet, but three out of the four are actually on the field and Erving has been on more and more in the last few weeks. That shows a willingness to adjust strategy from year to year and it’s something I believe in in terms of building a team. Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel were not the best picks. It’s a problem that it feels like they addressed from the first draft to the second one.
Based on today’s deliberately leaked information that Joe Thomas requested a trade, it’s safe to surmise we don’t have enough information to make a pronouncement on who stays or leaves. Personally I think he should stay, he’s inexperienced and has made mistakes. If he’s replaced the whole thing will be blown up anyway, new GM will want his own coach and even if he keeps Pettine (who will be dead man walking ala Mangini) he will assemble a team for his next handpicked coach.
yes, they should absolutely fire him. His ineptitude in player evaluation from the draft to free agents is glaring.
“If he has a vision and isn’t ridiculous.” Well he doesn’t and is. His moves demonstrate that.
This is an attractive GM Job. High picks, cap space, and hopefully an owner who learned not to meddle. Keep the coach until you get your roster. Then you can replace the coach.
Firing him now allows you to find someone and give them the time to prep for the next draft and free agency. There are no moves to be made.
It was pretty obvious Bridgewater and Carr were better QBs in college. Manziel looked impressive because A&M had an excellent line and he had stud receivers to toss the ball to when his improvising didn’t work. That style of football doesn’t work in the NFL or Mike Vick would have multiple Super Bowl rings and Tebow would be a legitimate star.
A GM must explore every option, even the ones he does not find palatable. I would not want a GM that would ignore ridiculous trade options because players are “untouchable”. What if Denver offered 2 first round picks + a decent player for Thomas? Would you ignore that? Whenever a “trade” is discussed, you have to consider both parts, not just what you are giving up.
The over reaction from these trade rumors is irrational and emotional given our lack of facts.
hi HARV … didn’t bridgewater pull an “eli manning” & say he didn’t want to play in cleveland & did it influence their thinking ? or was it haslam ordering farmer to take manziel ?
NO
Keep Ray and Pet. What does a change now do for the team? Keep current FO for 2 more years. That way, we can truly see how their drafts played out over the long haul; see if they corrected any mistakes; improved in their job; and brought a winning season to the city.
A change to new GM/HC just means 2 more years of jockeying schemes and players but what will be consistent is losing. The only way I might support changes now is if CLE brings in previousls experienced and successful GM/HC.
3 of the 4 top picks being on the field (sometimes) does not make me like any draft. To me that’s just classic Cleveland pathetically low standards. Even after the 2014 disaster people were excited that Bitonio was a keeper in the way he run blocked. No one’s excited this year about anyone but Johnson, and most teams have a guy like that. It’s almost like we’ve forgotten what a competent draft looks like. It looks like at least 2 guys playing – not in our imagination, performing on the field – like they’ll be a fixture at their position for years.
First, they noted Malcolm Johnson as a potential FB at the draft (whether it is wise is yet to be seen, but he’s been a disaster there so far).
Duke was a needed RB as West is out of NFL right now and Crowell has been bad.
You know I never liked Mayle.
If Mack is intimating he’s gone, then I get Erving. I don’t like not getting a playmaker when we needed one bad,but I get it.
Need to look up the inside run YPC again, but it was better earlier in the year (hence Shelton). Obviously, we need run-stoppers (and still do).
Ray Farmer should have been fired last year. The 2014 Browns draft was one of the biggest jokes in NFL history. Go up and down the 32 first round picks and there are superstars and stars among the 32. A dart throw would have produced far better returns.
Craig, re your “smart” draft grabbing Danny Shelton, Cam Erving, …” Shelton has not impacted the Browns and we are worse this year than last on defense. Hard to believe what you said about Erving. When you draft at #19 overall, you best well get a starting star or you failed BIG.
Michael, re your “Cameron Erving was an insurance pick against Alex Mack leaving.” …. Hard to believe you said that. Nobody with a sane mind as a GM in the NFL drafts to have an “insurance policy in case something happens one year later”. Nobody sane! Mack can always choose to stay or he leaves–big deal. There is the free agent market and there is the 2016 draft. The only orgs that would consider drafting an “insurance policy” would be, for example, the Broncos to have a QB as an understudy for when Peyton retires and that’s because they are successful now! The Browns are light years different. They are at the bottom of the heap. When you are in the cellar, forget about any “insurance policy” –you draft #19 overall to be a starter, a starter linebacker, edge rusher, wideout, anything, but a starter! Re your “insurance policy”, what do cellar dwellers insure? Maybe the Packers, the Seahawks, the Patriots etc have something to insure but certainly not the Browns.
Michael, your comment “Sure, we’d all love to have Odell Beckham Jr., but he was a huge injury risk at the time” is farcical. Beckham had star performances in 2014 and in 2015 he cements his future legacy as a superstar. Khalil Mack, Sammy Watkins, Aaron Donald, Anthony Barr, on and on–there were many gems among those 32 first rounders in 2014.
Ray Farmer acted like he was intoxicated or under heavy meds at his last press conference. His drafting in 14 and 15 and his free agent history are jokes of the NFL and now this press conference takes the word “joke” to a new level. What a national embarrassment.
Assemble a 3rd party consultant group to vet out the best possible GM in the land and go for it, then fire this destructive GM who has set the Browns deep into the crap hole for the next five years. You two truly sound like paid employees of the Browns.
Just as an FYI, Mitchell Swartz was just named a midseason all pro by PFF, Benjamin was a 2nd teamed. Not entirely sure how the Schwartz pick is possible with their run game. Anyways, two more Heckert guys…even though he wasn’t perfect, I’m not sure whether we are going to ever do better than Heckert. In three years, he drafted Haden, Ward, Schwartz, Luavo, Cameron, Asante, Skrine, Hughes, and Benjamin. All these guys are either significant contributors for the Browns or another team. 3 of them have been to at least one pro bowl and at least 2 or 3 more might end up there. Even Phil Taylor was good before he got hurt. I don’t think you’ll find a lot of other GMs who got more value for their draft picks in that three year period. We went through a significant period where we couldn’t even draft one pro bowler. Bring heckert back .
Just as an FYI, Mitchell Swartz was just named a midseason all pro by PFF, Benjamin was a 2nd teamed. Not entirely sure how the Schwartz pick is possible with their run game. Anyways, two more Heckert guys…even though he wasn’t perfect, I’m not sure whether we are going to ever do better than Heckert. His picks were a bit boring when he made them, but they panned out .In three years, he drafted Haden, Ward, Gordon, Schwartz, Luavo, Cameron, Asante, Skrine, Hughes, Sheard, and Benjamin. All these guys are either significant contributors for the Browns or another team. 4 of them have been to at least one pro bowl and at least 2 or 3 more might end up there. Even Phil Taylor was good before he got hurt. I don’t think you’ll find a lot of other GMs who got more value for their draft picks in that three year period. We went through a significant period where we couldn’t even draft one pro bowler. Bring heckert back .
Every game at crunch time the other team makes key pays with a big receiver with a catch radius the size of a beach umbrella. Our turn at crunch time I see three circus midgets each with a catch radius the size of a ping pong paddle. This wouldn’t be SO bad if our GM didn’t make absurd speeches about how receivers are not important. Every casual fan had a better first round than he did. Ya want my first round? Carr and Kelvin Benjamin. Then instead of adding a pick and getting Terrence West he could have added Martavis Bryant…..and wasn’t he on all our “MUST GET A RECEIVER” lists? Then he is so defensive about his lack of Ozzie Newsome Smarts that he has to try to defend himself with over-reaching vocabulary like when he started off his recent press conference with the need to “conversate”. Jimmy didn’t want Lombardi making those two first picks after that brilliant (we don’t need to know what you bench press) Mingo pick and there was Ray, in house and ready to go. There is NO WAY Jimmy allows this guy to keep making picks for his billion dollar business. He IS GONE!
Duke Johnson was an excellent pick up. Now we just need a great back out of this draft to compliment him
How do u feel about Duke now and he’ll only get better