WFNY Week 9 CFP Rankings; Man versus Machine

Another week, another absolutely crazy finish to a college football game that might have altered the ACC conference chase. This time, it was the Miami Hurricanes freshly off firing their head coach returning a ball on special teams as the clock hit all-zeroes and the Duke Blue Devils on the short end of the stick. While the ACC confirmed several missed calls and suspended the referee crew, the loss for Duke will stand.

On the other side of the country, the Stanford Cardinal could only sit and watch as Washington State kicker Erik Powell attempted to make his sixth field goal on the night, the last one from 43 yards out on the last play of the game. As the ball sailed to the right of the goalposts, the Cardinal knew they had survived one more week in their quest to win the Pac12 and make the College Football Playoff.

Such is life in college football.

And yet, those sometimes completely unpredictable results are a reason why attempting to predict the high-level outcomes on the season are so fun. There are great debates to be had as no man nor computer can accurately assess what will happen when a bunch of college players hit the field each week. As such, the WFNY staff wanted to demonstrate their acuity in such predictions and rankings as allowing the computer to have all the fun would not stand.

Corey Barnes Playoff-Four picks

#1 Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
#2 Seed: Clemson Tigers
#3 Seed: LSU Tigers
#4 Seed: TCU Horned Frogs

While the Buckeyes played unevenly through the first five weeks, Ohio State won complete games against Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers. The defending champs will be challenged down the stretch, but on paper have the most talent in the conference and arguably the nation. Clemson survived a tough one against then No. 6 Notre Dame and has defeated a stout field – Tiger opponents’ aggregate records is 38-29. Louisiana State University remains undefeated in the difficult SEC. With wins over ranked Mississippi State, Auburn, and Florida the club stood the test against strong competition. The Big XII has time to sort itself out, but so far my vote goes to TCU over Baylor for the final spot. The Horned Frogs won more games over Power Five schools, but the game that may matter most comes on Black Friday when they host Baylor.

Next Four: Baylor, Iowa, Michigan State, Memphis

Josh Poloha Playoff-Four picks

No. 1 Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 2 Seed: Clemson Tigers
No. 3 Seed: LSU Tigers
No. 4 Seed: TCU Horned Frogs

The Buckeyes may not have played the best competition so far and have struggled at times, but they are the reigning champions and until someone beats them, they are atop the rankings, right? Clemson is one of the surprise teams competing for a playoff spot. The Tigers have been nothing short of impressive so far this season. While they gave Notre Dame their only loss of the season, they also shutout “The U”, 58-0, to run their coach out of town. They will prove if they are contenders or pretenders this week when they host Florida State. With the frontrunner for the Heisman trophy at running back, the other Tigers from LSU have been extremely good this year. Leonard Fournette and company will prove how good they are this week when they have to play at Alabama with College Gameday in Tuscaloosa. The Horned Frogs may not play much defense (like most of the Big 12), but their offense is lethal. Led by Trevone Boykin, TCU’s offense can compete with anyone in the country. Why did they get the fourth and final spot over Baylor? TCU has a healthy quarterback and have played better competition thus far.

Next Four: Baylor, Michigan State, Alabama, Notre Dame

Michael Bode Playoff-Four picks

No. 1 Seed: LSU Tigers
No. 2 Seed: Clemson Tigers
No. 3 Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 4 Seed: Stanford Cardinal

There is a ton more football to be played, but LSU and Ohio State seem to have the most talent on the field, while Clemson has navigated a difficult schedule thus far. Really, the only question to me was to select the final position. A one-loss Stanford team won out the slot based on their play since a now mind-boggling offensively inept loss to Northwestern to open the season. Much like the 2014 Buckeyes loss to Virginia Tech, the Cardinal look to not allow such a loss to define their season.

Next Four: Michigan State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Iowa

WFNY Computer Playoff-Four picks

No. 1 Seed: Clemson Tigers
No. 2 Seed: LSU Tigers
No. 3 Seed: Iowa Hawkeyes
No. 4 Seed: Michigan State Spartans

One can see from the maturation of these computer rankings why the College Football Selection Committee waits until after nine weeks to push out their set. Now that more is known about each team, the rankings are starting to truly take form.

For the third straight week, a different team tops the WFNY computer rankings. Clemson rises to the top following a big win over the NC State Wolfpack giving them just enough points to eek past previous number one teams of LSU and Iowa. The Michigan State Spartans also make their first appearance in the top four as Alabama lost some bonus points from Georgia suffering their third loss, which was enough for them to drop in the hotly contested top of the rankings.

Next Four: Ohio State Buckeyes, Stanford Cardinal, Alabama Crimson Tide, Utah Utes

WFNY Computer Rankings Update

Previously No. 18 Temple, No. 22 Cal, No. 33 Washington State, No. 34 Georgia, and No. 35 NC State all were eliminated after falling to higher ranked teams, which pared the list down to 30 total teams.

For the rest of the teams, here they are presented in a tier-based format.¹

Handle your own business tier (18-24 points)

Clemson, LSU, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Stanford, and Alabama should all have no issues making the College Football Playoff if they win the remainder on their slate.

A little help please tier (15-17 points)

Utah, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Memphis, Northwestern, TCU, Oklahoma State, Florida, and Michigan all could find themselves on the outside looking in on the CFP unless they get some help from key losses to the group above them.

Special recognition: Baylor (12 points) deserves to be in this group only due to a very back-loaded schedule, which could earn them some major bonus points and vault them quickly into the conversation though ultimately still fall short without some help.

Praying for November craziness (7-14 points)

The rest of the teams do not have a strong enough resume to enter a real conversation about earning a CFP spot unless November is a really fun month for upsets.

1. Tip o’ the hat to BenRm. [↩]