Shumpert could make season debut vs. Orlando; Kyrie not ready yet
December 11, 2015Long-time Cavalier John “Hot Rod” Williams passes away at 53
December 11, 2015The Cleveland Browns’ season is lost, and we need a respite from all the negative discussions about them. So, this email conversation between Michael Bode and me changes recent course by discussing the Cleveland Indians. We’ll look to cover some of the “hot topics” being discussed about the team as the MLB Winter Meetings have come to a close.
Craig: Look at us! We’re talking baseball (Indians Baseball) in December! “Thanks Browns!” will be the new “Blame Branyan!” or the more universally known “Thanks Obama!” before you know it. I read your recent post about Hot Stove frustration and I couldn’t escape the one thing that seems to be consistent about the Cleveland Indians since Mark Shapiro took over: the inability to get things done.
The one thing that sticks out in my mind is something we’ve heard a few times over the years regarding the Indians and incidentally it was a criticism of Chris Grant with the Cavs too. Is the Indians’ paralysis at all related to the continual overvaluing of their own prospects? If so, how much do you think this is a Cleveland Indians issue?
At some point, it seems to me that with the bust rate of prospects, it really does make sense to roll the dice and take back a player with a known ceiling even if you’re trading a guy away who might potentially have a higher one should the sun and the moon align properly with the earth.
Michael: I would like to point out for the record that your bio on the WFNY About page still says As a blogging veteran who now concentrates on sports, Craig is a generalist, but the Indians are probably most securely in his wheelhouse. Therefore, you are indisputably an Indians-first guy for the website (I think that is how it works).
Over-valuing your own players and prospects is a lot like a fantasy football draft. Why does almost everyone think they did great coming out of their fantasy drafts? Well, if you were really high on Sammy Watkins or Todd Gurley this year, then you might have grabbed one of them in Round 4. On your sheet, they were Round 3 guys, but on everyone elses sheets they were Round 5 guys. It doesn’t even matter who is correct at the time of the draft, your good feeling is almost directly tied to the simple fact your player ranking is different than the other people’s ranks.
I do believe the Indians fall into this trap at times. They have every right and reason to over-value Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Danny Salazar (in that order, btw) as cheap, controllable, proven arms are ridiculously valuable. But the Reds reportedly want position players. So, are the Indians willing to give them Clint Frazier, Giovanny Urshela, and perhaps another decent piece? Given the current team, I think they should.
The tricky part is balancing the future. For instance, the Arizona Diamondbacks just gave up three former first-round picks (all still highly rated) for Shelby Miller, who is good but not great. There are calls for them to make another similar move that could potentially mortgage their entire future. Sure, if they win the World Series it would be worth it, but what if they go all Toronto Blue Jays and the big moves end with a whimper.
How far do you think the Indians should go to push for a title in their current window?
Craig: That’s part of what concerns me about all the rumors. You have to trade something to get something, but my perception is that the Indians are talking about their starting pitchers which are more known quantities than their own prospects. I get why other teams are talking about them, because if you can talk the Indians into parting with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar, or even Trevor Bauer for that matter, you would be crazy not to try and do it. If I’m the Indians though, as much as I like Clint Frazier or any other prospect there’s a time and risk element to them ever reaching potential, so I’m pushing all trade talks toward minor leaguers like that.
Obviously there’s risk that Frazier works out in someone else’s uniform, but there’s even bigger opportunity risk to wasting the big league window with a pitching staff like this and guys like Brantley and Kipnis. Also keep in mind – for all the razzing that I think Terry Francona takes, we’ve seen enough bad baseball managers in Cleveland to recognize that he’s a manager that can help the Indians win it all if they have the pieces.
Back to your question, how hard should the Indians push? As hard as they can. They’ve got a former Cy Young award winner and you noted yourself that he’s not even the most valuable pitcher on the team, potentially. The time is now. The urgency is here. This is the time to stop smelling your own farts and talking about sustained success over a longer period. It’s here and the Indians have a real chance with the base in the majors thanks to some things paying off from the minors.
So I don’t know what that means from the standpoint of exactly which player go out and which come back, but it’s time for that bold move trading “future” for “now” if you ask me… which you did…
Michael: For me, the risk isn’t if Clint Frazier works out for the Cincinnati Reds. The risk is that Todd Frazier doesn’t work out for the Cleveland Indians. If your top-level prospect becomes a star elsewhere because you paid a price to get a proven star back, then that’s fine. That’s supposed to be how it works. Sure, sometimes you get Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers, but demanding every trade be that lop-sided is ludicrous.
Scout’s Jeff Ellis is a bit less biased than myself when it comes to the Indians prospects. He thinks it would take Bobby Bradley, Clint Frazier, and Giovanny Urshela to land Todd Frazier (a high price). Let’s say the Indians do that and then go forward and make a trade for Carlos Gonzalez who is being shopped. To reduce his costs (owed $37m over next two seasons), the Indians would have to demand the Rockies take back Chris Johnson (owed $18.5m over next two seasons), but I believe Cargo could be had for a couple of pitching prospects such as Rob Kaminsky and Sean Brady (and maybe a PTBNL). Add in a Rajai Davis one year cheap contract, and all of a sudden the Indians are a vastly improved ballclub for about $20-23 million in added 2016 payroll.
I wouldn’t go as far as you state and completely mortgage the future, but I don’t think the Indians have to go crazy to plug the holes they have. The positions of most dire need happen to have teams willing to sell off proven players there. We just have to be willing to deal.
Allright, as always, the commenters get the last word below. How far should the Indians go on building their 2016 roster?
41 Comments
Lets remember that this is a team that won 81 games last year. We were average. Yes, we have some strengths and reasons to hope, but our roster isn’t so good and our farm system isn’t so deep that we should pay a premium for a guy like Todd Frazier.
Even though it’s not the sexy option, I think the right move is to stay the course.
“how hard should the Indians push? As hard as they can. ”
How often do we see this work? It spectacularly busted on the Padres last year, and they’re in trouble for the foreseeable future.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12334819/mlb-best-worst-active-offseason
ESPN writers voted on last year’s offseason moves in February. The NL winner – the Padres. The AL winner – the White Sox. Of the eight teams that got votes, just three topped .500, and one of those was the Nationals who made it by the skin of their teeth despite winning 96 games the year before.
The top free agent signings were considered to be Russell Martin (not a bad deal, but I don’t think it looks like a great one, and the reason they had to do it was because they gave up Gomes for nothing), Shields (oops!), Lester (a good player certainly, but a $25M/year player?), Laroche ($12M for a 78 OPS+ so far), Sandoval (yikes!), and Andrew Miller(like Lester, a good player, but a reliever at that cost?). If teams could re-do their deals from last year, the ones considered the best would have at least half turned over.
The best trades – Samardzija, Donaldson, Zobrist, Heyward, Clippard, Porcello, Upton. Again with our time machine, at least half would see the supposed winning team want a re-do. Maybe even six of the seven.
I would like to see this team make a few good moves and get better on paper too, but let’s be careful about how hard we push in the offseason.
This team won 81 games, but they put up 93 third order wins. They’re going to add on a few wins from last year simply as BABIP regresses. The pitching allowed a .235 average against on a .288 BABIP. W/ RISP, .260 on a .317 BABIP. That BABIP was the worst in baseball for that split. They allowed a .267 average on a .329 BABIP in high leverage situations. Again, that BABIP was the worst in baseball for that split. I know the hitting deserves some questions, but do we really expect the pitching to be the worst at allowing balls to fall in in important situations again next year?
To be clear, this is not an argument against doing anything. I would like to see them add a quality player or two. Just that we need to be careful about hard we push. We might be a bit closer than we think, and winning in the offseason is hardly a guarantee that you’ll win in the regular season. And for a team that has to be careful with their dollars, it could cost you in future seasons.
Absolutely…. it’s odd that for years the opinion has been that the team needs to draft better and develop their own talent. Now that we’re starting to see the fruits of that labor, it’s – TRADE OUR PROSPECTS! SIGN BIG NAME FREE AGENTS! Even after the Bourn and Swisher debacle, fans want the splashy, big-money moves.
It’s boring and we end up saying it every year, but if this team is going to become a legitimate contender the biggest leap is going to have to come from within – from the farm system, from young guys getting better, from playing better baseball. I believe that’s the case in both the short and long term.
Exactly. As I said in another thread, to win in the offseason requires making an offer that no other team is willing to touch. Should a team that draws in such low revenue be willing to outspend the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, and Cubs for talent? That seems downright foolish. Like you said, this team has to find ways to win in a different fashion than those guys.
I don’t want to “win” the offseason. I want to make smart additions to obvious areas of need rather than ignore them and hope they magically get better.
3B, CF, LF – three obvious positions of great need (Brantley can DH all year to protect that shoulder).
We don’t need to go after Frazier, I actually prefer signing Freese. But, we need to make smart additions rather than inaction or complete bottom of the barrel moves.
NO! Do not trade young guys now after all of this time for 30 year old players who have 2 years left on a contract who you know you won’t resign.
Keep drafting and developing. Hope that these young kids: Frazier, Zimmer and Bradley continue to improve and do it as fast as possible. Same with the young pitchers. When they do you can deal from an absolute position of strength especially when you already have one of the youngest/strongest starting rotations in MLB.
See my other comment.
93 third order wins?
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/whowut.gif
http://49.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lunocz3mMX1r24lq9o1_250.gif
do we really expect the pitching to be the worst at allowing balls to fall in in important situations again next year?
wait it’s the pitching’s fault that balls fell not the defense? oh wait i get it. the pitcher’s shouldn’t have let a bat touch a ball that’s it.
Kansas City didn’t prescribe to this and all they did was win a World Series. Of course they also had athletes, intelligence, great defense, great base running, speed and a great bullpen.
According to the internet: third order wins are Pythagenport wins, based on AEQR and AEQRA.
If that helps.
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3791303/whatsgoingon.gif
Yes, and with our 102 fourth order wins…we’ve won the World Series! Don’t argue. It’s math. We’re the best.
Dude me and the Deuce played sports just so we didn’t have to do math! Chicks dig calculators.
No argument just a real question.
What’s going on?
we ain’t come to play MATH
Current Indians status: Do nothing
Proposed Indians status: DO EVERYTHING
Counter-proposal: Do something, but less than everything
I suggest brushing up on BABIP first.
The defense actually ended up better than average by the end of the year. And the pitchers were the best in baseball at not letting the bat touch the ball. The Royals BABIP against was just 2 points better than the Indians last year. Regardless of how much they prescribed to it, they weren’t really any better at it in general.
Back to BABIP – it’s a random and fickle mistress. The Indians .288 mark for the season was a bit better than league average. That makes sense, as the Indians had good pitching and good fielding this year. Suddenly w/ RISP and in high leverage situations though, the team as a whole became the worst in the league at preventing balls from falling in between fielders. That’s, well, that’s really odd. Many like to assign a narrative to something like that, but the fact of the matter is, it has no real predictive value. We should expect the Indians to have something like a .290 BABIP against w/ RISP and in high leverage spots in 2016. That takes 30 to 40 points of average, and then some more SLG off opponents hitters, which means a lot fewer runs scored. Now, this isn’t a guarantee. The Indians could certainly be the worst in baseball at BABIP against in the biggest spots again. But when the great 2015 pitcher staff was the worst in baseball at it, but the 2012 god-awful pitching staff was one of the best in baseball at it, it seems like something we shouldn’t count on in any way.
This work for you…
https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/675326609495359488
Cliff’s Notes Steve!!!
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/dnno2.gif
“there’s even bigger opportunity risk to wasting the big league window with a pitching staff like this and guys like Brantley and Kipnis”
Many proponents of the “win now” strategy aren’t acknowledging that our window is open for at least the next 5 years. I would be much more in favor of mortgaging the future if our core was only under contract through 2016, but that’s not the case.
No other team can boast such a strong, cost controlled core, plus, this is the best farm team we’ve had since the 90’s. If we stay the course, we should be strong contenders for the next 10 years.
Besides, many of our top prospects are poised to make impacts in 2016. Clevinger, Soto, Armstrong, Johnson, Naquin, Zimmer and Diaz should all have MLB opportunities this year.
And if we go all in in 2016 and come up empty, we’re not going to be able to Detroit our way out of it with money, we’ll be sunk, stay the course!
Third order wins are based on the underlying statistics and opponents quality.
As mentioned above, baseball has a lot of random occurrences and combinations. Nine hits in a game could come one every inning, leading to zero runs, or all nine in a row, leading to maybe seven runs. The problem is that there actually isn’t much of a difference in talent between those two versions of the nine hit teams, but one now has seven more runs, and likely a win, over the other. The number of runs or the win don’t tell us anywhere near as much what that offense will do the next night as much as the hits and walks do.
Chaining hits and walks together is just as random and fickle as BABIP. And the Indians were one of the worst at it in 2015, on both sides of the ball. This leads to narratives like “they lack the clutch!”, but like BABIP, it tells us nothing about next year, and we make better predictions when we chalk it almost all up to luck and predict everyone to be pretty much neutral at it.
Now, teams are still going to see a wide range of performances in these numbers, but it’s nearly impossible to accurately guess which ones will be at the top or bottom. So we should focus more on what the underlying numbers tell us.
Sometimes the ball falls in, sometimes it doesn’t. Sometimes it falls in more frequently at the worst times. You can’t predict when, and it’s foolish to include it when planning for next year.
I wouldn’t say they need to “win now” but they need to “win sometime sooner than later.” This team is in need of some offense. This has been the case for quite a while now. The Indians are going to have to add it at some point. If they can get something reasonable done now, they should.
I’m taking your word for all of it ‘cuz you are one wild dude! And that’s not an insult.
We’re absolutely on the same page. I would like to make a smart, quality addition or two.
I guess? This stuff is child’s play compared to what MLB front offices are doing.
It has it’s uses/roles/parts but for me it would be more of an ancillary thing. I guess that’s just part of the “old school” mentality. Once upon a time I was new school now I think of that as being naive, unknowing, being in a hurry, etc etc etc.
When a theoretically “old-school” team like the Giants decides they’re going to throw millions of dollars at Silicon Valley to help them with tracking data and data analysis, there really is no such thing as “old-school” anymore.
The Royals have a former Baseball Prospectus writer as a Director of Baseball Operations and his department includes “a Columbia graduate with an expertise in pattern detection, a Yale graduate with a graduate degree in atmospheric sciences from MIT and a Vanderbilt graduate who has worked in the field of anomaly detection.” They’re deep in with this type of analysis.
Even the stubborn, backwards Phillies have said “You’re gonna try to do every piece of homework you can to push the odds of being successful in your favor — every stat, every formula.”
Royals also had multiple decades or horrible win/loss records allowing them to draft top notch talent repeatedly. Granted you still have to make the right choices just look at Indians.
Anyways as I said before the analytics have a place I just don’t think they should receive top billing when it comes to player personnel. Sports but especially baseball has way to many unique factors that require an ability to adapt/change on the spot. Just my opinion.
Adding World Series Ring polish to my Christmas list!
And they started winning the year after they promoted Groopman to a Director role.
And your second to last line is exactly why the analytics types have thrived and grown so quickly. For over a hundred years, baseball analysis refused to adapt/change. So when we finally let these new, bright, young minds through the door, there was a hundred years of junk to call BS on.
Something like regression analysis, which is a tool we use to understand the importance of those unique factors, is still pushed back against as some new crazy science in MLB by fans despite that people have been using it for 200 years in other fields. The public analysis in baseball is years, even decades behind where other fields are. Analytics don’t receive close to top billing, but mainly because so many Luddites keep trying their hardest to hold it back and be it’s most useful.
The question is how Urshela will hit? I personally believe he will be a .270 hitter and provide some power and great D. Those are the kind of judgements guys like Francona are paid to be able to make.
WAR value had them a t 88 wins (40 fWAR + 48). So, there is some play there but they definitely under-achieved their talent.
We call that under-achievement gap: April-May.
Also known as the bullpen struggling paired with the horrific, cover the children’s eyes defense.
aka: Carlos Santana 0-150 with 25bb
Hold on now…Luddites! We don’t stand for that kind of talk around here mister especially when we have to go and Google it.
Problem is while he’s working on his offense can just his glove keep him in the majors? I don’t know if this offense can afford that right now with Brantley out. I mean look at the guys who could potentially be starting in the OF. That’s a AAAA group.
The last time the tribe was all in was 1948. How’s that for math skills?