Terrelle Pryor made the most of his time away from football
December 4, 2015Fixing the Indians over the MLB Hot Stove
December 4, 2015With Ohio State’s regular season over, all the Buckeyes and their fans can do now is hope. That is, hope for plenty of chaos this coming weekend.
In my first edition of “Ohio State can still make the College Football Playoff,” I laid out four steps that could get the Buckeyes into the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, only one of those steps, and a part of another, actually went in Ohio State’s favor – Step 1 (beat Michigan) and part of Step 4 (Baylor and Stanford losing). With the Buckeyes climbing from No. 8 to No. 6 following the final week of the regular season and their demolition of Michigan, the scarlet and gray still need a little help from other teams around the country this weekend.
Step 1: Beat Michigan [✓]
Step 2: Penn State upsets Michigan State
Step 3: Beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship (if Michigan State loses)
Step 4: Baylor [✓] and Notre Dame [✓] (and even Oklahoma) get upset
Heading into Championship Saturday, the Buckeyes still have a shot to make the College Football Playoff. Although not all of these things need to happen, at least one or two need to happen in order for Ohio State to potentially make it back to the final four.
No. 18 Florida upsets No. 2 Alabama (4 p.m. ET, CBS)
The two-loss Gators, who have disappointed for most of the season but somehow won the SEC East, have a tall task ahead of them if they want to upset the Crimson Tide. Their two losses came against strong opponents — at LSU and at home against Florida State — but few believe that Florida has any shot against Bama. But anything can happen in a conference championship game. Florida must stop Heisman favorite Derrick Henry, something that no one has been able to do this season. The SEC East winner will be rooted on by all of Buckeye Nation Saturday afternoon.
No. 20 USC upsets No. 7 Stanford (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stanford is ranked one spot below Ohio State, but a win over the Trojans could leap them ahead of Ohio State while the Buckeyes are idle. It’s not guaranteed that the Cardinal would jump the Buckeyes with a win, but USC could make the decision easy for the committee by pulling off the upset.
What would be the worst for Ohio State is if one of these other upsets happens and Stanford jumps the Buckeyes with a win to make the Playoff.
No. 10 North Carolina upsets No. 1 Clemson (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
This ACC Championship is expected to be high scoring and features one of the two remaining undefeated teams in FBS: the Clemson Tigers. While unbeaten and ranked No. 1, Clemson struggled in their final game of the regular season last week, only beating the Gamecocks of South Carolina by a score of 37-32.
The Tar Heels have gone undefeated since losing their season opener to South Carolina (a horrible loss). If North Carolina pulls off the upset, the committee would have to decide if Clemson is still playoff-bound despite losing their conference championship game. With just one loss, Clemson could still possibly be one of the Final Four teams included in the Playoff. if UNC does tame the Tigers, the Buckeyes have to hope that the Tar Heels do not jump them in the rankings.
Insurance: No. 5 Michigan State upsets No. 4 Iowa (8 p.m. ET, FOX)
If it weren’t for a horrible game by Ohio State (and a muffed punt by Michigan’s punter in their loss to the Spartans), the Buckeyes would be playing the undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday night for a shot to win the Big Ten Championship. But they aren’t, and that’s why they need some help.
While a Spartan victory would almost certainly move the Buckeyes up to No. 5, the same might not be said if Iowa beats Michigan State to remain undefeated. How could the committee drop Sparty below a team they beat just a few weeks ago, especially when the second loss came in a game they earned by virtue of beating Ohio State? A loss might put the Spartans behind the Buckeyes, but the best case for OSU is Michigan State beating Iowa.
The more of these upsets that occur and the more chaos that ensues, the better for Ohio State. The playoff selections will be made on Sunday — “Selection Sunday” — at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Buckeyes run to the inaugural College Football Championship last season could play a role in the committee’s mindset of including Ohio State this year — if, in fact, at least one of the upsets mentioned above do occur.
Believe, Buckeye Nation. I am still telling you that there’s a chance.
12 Comments
The one thing Florida can do is play defense. I will laugh maniacally if Florida puts Ohio State into the CFP by playing Tresselball.
FWIW, I think you are wrong on both UNC and Michigan State. If UNC wins, they are a 1-loss conference champ coming off knocking off the #1 team in the country and could (maybe even should) leapfrog Ohio State. In the meantime, Clemson would be a one-loss team who made their conference championship and took their loss there, which might leave them still ahead of OSU. Similarly, Iowa losing leaves them and OSU both with the same loss, except Iowa got theirs by being good enough to make the conference championship, which OSU could not do. Their best wins (Michigan for OSU and Northwestern for Iowa) are almost identical in value based on the committees rankings.
Stanford and Bama losing and Clemson and Iowa holding serve is probably best case.
i love ohio state as much as the next guy but if you dont take care of your business and win your division – let alone conference – you dont deserve to be in the final four.
On Iowa: the committee had Ohio State ranked above Iowa when they had the same record and already recorded the NW win, but the Buckeyes did not yet have the Michigan win. So, we have it pretty well that they view Ohio State better.
UNC is a trickier scenario. It is a conundrum. I believe they would view Ohio State over UNC stacked up against one another, but Clemson has a better resume than the Buckeyes (even w/ the loss). If they feel they need to elevate UNC over Clemson, then they could make the argument Ohio State is third. If they do it, then compare UNC & Ohio State, then the Buckeyes could get in.
If I didn’t have a rooting interest, then I would want UNC to win just to see what they do with it. They could make an argument for any of those three teams in that scenario (or Stanford if they beat USC).
seeing as LSU & Bama got to replay a regular season game while leaving out a worthy Oklahoma State in a Nat’l champ game, I won’t cry if they let the Buckeyes in 🙂
I think what we don’t know is how the committee views “regular season” vs. conf championship losses. I could easily see them saying they won’t punish Iowa for having a better regular season and then losing to the same team that OSU lost to. And they WON’T have the same record, regardless – Iowa will have one more win than OSU even if they lose.
the way the committee did it last year was basically throw out the worst win and compare (Buckeyes versus Baylor/TCU).
you are correct, they could decide to reward Iowa anyway, but I’d feel pretty confident especially if Sparty beat them soundly.
Take a photo I’d like to see it.
Yea explain Alabama then oh that’s right they are America’s team now. Wrong America.
i think if Michigan State beats Iowa, and if EITHER Florida or UNC win, the Buckeyes will get in despite USC/Stanford. That’s just my opinion. And if you try to tell me that the committee is about football and not about who sells tickets, I won’t believe you.
Ohio State sells more tickets than any other team, and for that reason alone they will always get the benefit of the doubt.
I hope you are right. As for tickets, won’t these games be complete sellouts regardless of who plays? I understand that at bowl games, ticket sales are important, but is there any data from last year indicating that the 3 games were not sellouts? Now if you are talking tv ratings, I certainly agree that OSU produces higher ratings than some of the other teams in contention.
yeah, i said tickets but i meant ratings and overall fans. I think Buckeye fans will flood the surrounding areas, too, thus filling the coffers for the locals, and increasing the bids to host for years to come.