And the “longform” debate rages on—kind of: While We’re Waiting…
February 22, 2016Buckeyes Roundball Roundup: Beat Mich-Again, Outlasted Nebraska
February 22, 2016Last Wednesday did not mark the beginning of the 2016 MLB season for me just due to the Cleveland Indians pitchers and catchers reporting to Goodyear, Arizona, but also because my bright, shiny 2016 Baseball Prospectus annual arrived in the mail. The book is a fantastic resource for statistics both of previous seasons and projections (such as PECOTA seeing the Indians as AL favorites), along with built-in narratives from some of the best baseball writers across the country. The deep dive covers each MLB team, but here are some of the interesting nuggets I saw about the Indians.
Position Players
Yan Gomes
One of the fantastic statistical attributes in the BP annual is quantified catcher defensive stats. Framing, blocking, and throwing are taken into account to make an attempt at measuring how many runs the catcher saved through defense.
The loss of Yan Gomes’ offense after suffering a MCL tear, along with other injuries, in 2015 was spoken loudly throughout the year. However, Gomes also suffered defensively as he went from being one of the premier defensive catchers in baseball to one who actually hurt his pitching staff more than he helped. A healthy Gomes goes a long way to making the lineup formidable, but also to making the most out of the excellent pitching staff.
Roberto Perez
Roberto Perez continued his status as among the best backup catchers in MLB with an outstanding 2015 season that saw him save 5.6 runs. Framing is the best attribute Perez has had, but he worked with Yadier Molina’s trainer in the offseason to lose 20 pounds. With less girth, it is possible he will move better laterally and those blocking numbers might rise too. Regardless, he is poised to be an unsung weapon for Terry Francona yet again.
Carlos Santana
Carlos Santana lost his power in 2015, which undercut his overall value despite his ability to get on base remaining similar to previous seasons. It was a bad hitting season for Santana, but the real question is if the 30-year-old is experiencing a decline or if the bad season was an outlier in an otherwise productive career. Well, after running his numbers through models to best project a career arc, Baseball Prospectus sees Santana rebounding in a big way. If Santana’s slugging numbers rise back to his career norms, then the middle of the Tribe lineup will be much stronger and give the team a much needed offensive infusion. Baseball Prospectus projects both Santana and Gomes being among the top 10 most improved position players in 2015, which helps explain why BP is so high on the Indians overall.
Pitchers
BP, like most everyone, loves the Indians rotation. There are a ton of great insights and statistics within the book (one of the many reasons to purchase the book). Here, though, we are going to highlight another member of the pitching staff that does not get nearly his due from the Indians faithful.
Cody Allen
Allen has been among a handful of the most reliable closers in baseball the past three seasons. It is about time we recognize him as such. The Indians are fortunate to have a player who had the eighth-best ERA among relievers in 2015. The funny thing about Allen’s season is that that was his worst ERA during the Francona era (2.43 in 2013, 2.07 in 2014), but his 1.79 FIP was the lowest (3.02 in both 2013 and 2014). Allen saw his previous good fortunes even out a bit, while still remaining among the best closers in the game.
Prospects
Bobby Bradley
Whooo boy. If there ever is a name you want to see as a comparable for a prospect, then Giancarlo Stanton sure is a nice place to begin; Miguel Sano is no slouch either. The dearth of power hitters in this pitching-friendly era has given extra value to hitters with the ability to hit the ball out of the yard. And, as WFNY noted in his profile, Bradley can do so to all fields. He certainly still has a long way to go, but through his age-19 season, Bradley has done nothing but wow audiences and win awards for his power hitting ways.
Michael Clevinger
The Indians sure know how to make the most out of their veteran rental trade-offs. If Clevinger continues to ascend back to his top prospect form, then the Indians will have given themselves another depth option for 2016 and yet another potential ace for the future as the Indians development system continues to churn out pitchers. As WFNY noted in his profile, Clevinger is an excellent overall athlete who was merely set back by an injury. He appears to have regained his pitching prowess and the Indians look to be the beneficiaries. If only the Tribe of the ’90s could have had the pitching of today’s teams.
Brady Aiken
Speaking of steals, the Indians might have nabbed themselves another in the middle of the first round last year in Brady Aiken. BP goes in depth on all the angles of Aiken’s story (above is just a snippet). Basically, the Indians bet on keeping Aiken’s arm healthy. If they do, then they obtained a top of the draft pitcher in the middle of the first round. If they cannot, then they lose their wager on the pick. Either way, seeing the Indians grasping at stars in the draft is an admirable approach.
Dearth of Drafted Positional Players
Buried in the Chicago White Sox chapter was a depressing note on the Indians current situation via the MLB Amateur Draft. From 2003 through 2015, the Indians had the absolute least amount of position player WARP accumulated by drafted players. The trend has begun to change in recent years with Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor providing much of the pathetic 22 WARP over those 12 seasons. And, players such as Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer, and Bobby Bradley look to continue the upward arc in future seasons. But, the current standing is incredibly sad.
14 Comments
Wooo….Roll Tribe.
Nobody complains about Cody Allen that I have seen which means he must be doing it right. (As opposed to Chris Perez who was bombarded on twitter and booed in person).
Outside the moments, I agree. Even in the recap linked, I blamed Tito more than Allen for letting the game slip away.
While it’s nice to be mentioned with Stanton and Sano, you failed to divulge that BB was also mentioned with Mike Carp (He of the 27 TOTAL home runs and 3 teams in 6 big league seasons)!!!
Less bunting this year?
Carp/Trout, Tomato/Tomahto…
First two in order….and long way to go 🙂
I honestly think that unless your name is Rick Vaughn the most love a closer in Cleveland could hope to be shown is simply not being booed for running out of the bullpen.
It would be nice.
Getting seasick reading those photos. Also doesn’t help that I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT ANY OF THAT MEANS.
Play ball.
Vaughn had his share of hecklers.
Fair enough, most good, a little bad. The book explains what everything means in more detail 😉
No I don’t mean in the movie, I mean literally if Rick Vaughn came trotting out onto the field the ballpark would explode.
If not for the Browns’ drafts of the past 15 years, the Indians ALMOST EQUALLY horrendous draft failures of the 2000s would be more publicized.