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February 24, 2016Buckeyes in the Rafters
February 24, 2016Carlos Santana has been a catcher, third baseman, first baseman, and designated hitter for the Cleveland Indians over his five full seasons in Tribe apparel all the while being a staple in the middle of the batting order. One of the slower, more methodical base runners on the Tribe, he’s not exactly your typical top-of-the-order guy. But after some experimentation hitting Santana in the two-hole in 2015, Indians manager Terry Francona noted he is considering the possibility of batting Santana lead-off on Tuesday in Goodyear, Arizona.
Once again today, #Indians manager Terry Francona said he's still considering trying Carlos Santana as the club's lead-off hitter.
— Nick Camino (@NickCaminoWKYC) February 23, 2016
Of course, it is not the first time Francona has mentioned batting his first baseman in the unusual lineup spot.
At #Indians radio affiliate lunch at Progressive Field, Terry Francona admitted he's thought about batting Carlos Santana lead-off before.
— Nick Camino (@NickCaminoWKYC) January 26, 2016
For his part, Santana appears willing:
Indians 1B/DH Carlos Santana on being a leadoff hitter: “I never tried it, but if I have an opportunity, why not? I can do it.”⁰ #Indians
— Hayden Grove (@H_Grove) February 23, 2016
Now, while the body type of the 5-foot-11 and 210 pounds does not seem destined to be a lead-off hitter, his numbers tell a different story. Due to his patient batting eye, Santana has finished with an OBP above .350 in each of his seasons with the team. He also stole 11 bases in only 14 attempts in 2015, which demonstrates some baserunning ability. And while his SLG and ISO numbers have indicated a loss of a consistent ability to hit for power, Santana has maintained his ability to draw walks and hit doubles. In fact, Santana has maintained his place as an above average hitter even during his recent, perceived struggles. If Santana wasn’t a corner infielder, then the idea would not be met with derision.
The main valid argment against hitting Santana in the lead-off role is that the Indians might have better hitters there already. Jason Kipnis had better batting numbers across the board including Santana’s precious OBP. Francisco Lindor was an absolute force in his half season rookie year that demanded receiving as many at bats as possible. Michael Brantley is progressing faster than his original timetable indicated, making it a real possibility of the Indians having three more worthy players grasping the top spot on the lineup card. This doesn’t even consider the addition of Rajai Davis (career only .318 OBP, but 18 SBs in 2015) and potential addition of Austin Jackson (career OBP of .333).
Whether or not Francona actually writes in Santana’s name atop the card remains to be seen. With Santana’s above average bat and elite skill at reaching base, however, Francona has something worth contemplating.
26 Comments
Ugh.
i like him better as a 3rd baseman.
Just a heads up – Jackson’s OBP is .333, his SLG is .399.
I’d love to see Santana lead off. The top four can be ordered almost anyway as long as you put someone between Kipnis and Brantley to fend off some bullpen matchups. The bigger fix to the lineup will come from not putting easy outs at the top – bunts primarily and Davis/Ramirez secondarily.
He gets a lot of walks and doubles. Depends on what those around him do.
Thanks. And, agree.
Really, wouldn’t be bad to just roll out wRC+ best to worst, then make small adjustments to break up same-side hitters.
I can already see the first two ABs of every game now…
Santana BB
Lindor Sac Bunt
ZiPS would suggest Brantley, Santana, Kipnis, Napoli, Lindor by that method, something I wouldn’t have any problem with either. Lindor’s speed is actually put to better use in front of weaker hitters. You don’t need speed as much when guys behind you are pretty good at getting extra base hits, it’s better used in front of guys who need help driving in runs.
If you’re thinking about SBs and homers, sure. OTOH if you expect the middle of the order to hit a bunch of doubles, maybe you do want Lindor on base so he can score from first.
Intriguing. There isn’t much I wouldn’t be willing to try with this lineup after last season. Teams cannot win on pitching alone.
What about pitching and defense 😉
Ah, cmon…I know you really love him.
A good bit of the odds of scoring from first on a double are actually out of the baserunner’s control. The other factors of no out double down the RF line (strongest OF arm, shorter time between ball hit and picked up, shorter throw, cautious baserunning) are big reasons that a guy is less likely to score from first on a double than, say, a two out double to CF.
A speedy baserunner has more control of getting extra bases in stolen bases and advancing on outs. Lindor or Santana only getting to third on a double with the heart of the order up isn’t that much worse than them scoring, both are still going to score very frequently. But when they get on base in front of Almonte, Urshela, or Cowgill? Moving runners around the bases is a lot harder, and every little bit extra counts.
No. You literally cannot win any game you score 0 runs in.
From hell’s heart I stab at thee.
Even the worst offenses score some runs though. We were 11th in AL last year, I think we jump to 7-8 this year. Any higher and we are a powerhouse.
We had 57 games last year in which we scored 2 or less runs and were shutout in 10 games. Stats lie.
The Mets and Royals were shutout 15 and 11 times respectively and they didn’t do too poorly for themselves.
I admit that I don’t really know what the stats say, but it just seems like Santana has struggled to drive in runs when he has the opportunity. Is that unfair? The top of the order seems like a better place for him simply because I don’t count on him being able to actually drive in a run as much as you want from a #3-4-5 hitter when he is presented with the opportunity.
10 games we couldn’t win and 152 we stood a fighting chance 🙂
Fine, shutouts mean nothing. At least we can all agree Carlos Santana is an anchor on the team’s offense. I mean a nautical anchor, that weighs us down and drags our whole team into the deep, dark, icy abyss.
Santana for his career – 245/.365/.433
Santana w/ RISP – .248/.389/.444
Santana w/ any men on base – .261/.376/.454
Santana in high leverage spots – .263/.390/.444
He draws a few extra walks, as I would guess pitchers are being careful, but he’s been at least as good at the plate when scoring opportunities arise.
Well, shows what I know.
Thanks for the very smart, well thought out response. Good stuff!
An anchor that keeps our ship stable in the choppy seas.
You mean a sea anchor?
Definition: Rather than tethering the boat to the seabed, the sea anchor increases the drag through the water and thus acts as a brake.
I’m in favor of both. But it would sure be nice to have a lead to defend.