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February 1, 2016Paul Dolan stands in the middle of center field at Progressive Field. He ambles through the snow at dusk, basking in the stillness. A soft voice interrupts his reverie, reverberating across the empty seats. “If you win more, they will come.” Dolan snaps around. “Hello? Shapiro, is that you?” Again the voice intones, “If you win more, they will come.” “This isn’t funny Mark! I changed the locks; how did you get back in?” The silence returned, but the spectral message stuck with the maligned club owner. If we win more, people will come? Could it be so simple?
Cleveland Indians attendance has been a subject of barstool debate and intra-fan hostility for the last few years. Despite ballpark renovations and winning records, steadily decreasing attendance figures have regularly positioned the Forest City near the bottom of the attendance list. Different theories attempt to explain the lazy turnstiles: poor economy, expensive tickets, bad weather, other entertainment options, the team isn’t good enough.
The last one seems to be the simplest fix. Common sense would suggest that if a team just wins more, then more people will show up. How well does that philosophy hold up in practice? To correlate wins with crowds, I examined the AL Central attendance over the past ten years to see how on-field performance translates to occupied seats. For each club there are a few considerations that disrupt the numbers.
(Note: Left hand axis is average attendance per game; right hand axis is wins per season.)
Chicago White Sox
The ChiSox have waffled around the .500 mark in the past decade, finishing over four times and under six times. After winning the 2005 World Series, Chicago pulled in over 36k per game in 2006. The club’s average attendance has steadily dropped off in subsequent years, seemingly independent of the team’s win-loss record. Even with a playoff appearance in 2008 the slow attendance deterioration continued unhindered. In 2015 the White Sox saw their first positive tick in the graph with an additional 1,051 people per game. That increase correlates to an extra three wins last season compared to 2014. Considering the notable size of Chicago’s population (2.7 million), the relatively low numbers are puzzling. Perhaps not as much, however, when you consider Chicago has one playoff win in the past ten seasons and has not qualified for the postseason since 2008.
Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s Henry Ford famously implemented the assembly line to manufacture automobiles at affordable prices. The city’s baseball club has developed its own system to steadily crank out competitive baseball. The Tigers finished below .500 only twice in the past decade, qualified for the playoffs five of those seasons, and enjoyed two American League pennants. Comerica Park averaged over 34,000 patrons per game in that stretch, including a significant drop between 2008 and 2009. The 2008 club won only 74 games, which was reflected in a roughly eight-thousand person drop per game in 2009. The full arrival of the Great Recession doubtless impacted Michiganders’ wallets as well. On the whole, the Tigers have exemplified consistency both between the foul lines and in the concourse.
Kansas City Royals
No team on this list has experienced both ends of the spectrum like the Royals. Kansas City fans endured both fifth-place division finishes and World Series glory in the past decade. Kauffman Stadium’s plentiful vacant seating mirrored the club’s on-field mediocrity. However, as the wins mounted, so too did the ticket stubs. An 86-win season in 2013 produced an extra three thousand fans per game. The club’s 2014 AL pennant-winning season created a dramatic attendance spike as the multitudes filled the K to the tune of 33,438 average in 2015. Kansas City may be the poster child of “winning leads to ticket sales,” as the two lines show a high correlation. Then again any team that wins back-to-back pennants after a 30-year playoff drought probably won’t have trouble selling tickets the following season.
Minnesota Twins
Judging the Twins since 2006 includes a consideration — multiple venues. From 2006 to 2009, the Twins closed the final chapter of the cavernous Metrodome. The Twin Cities’ dual-purpose stadium took Minnesotans out of the northern cold in the winter, but was not as conducive to the boys of summer. So when luxurious Target Field opened in 2010, the whole state seemed to occupy 1 Twins Way to the tune of a 39,798 average. It probably did not hurt that the club won 94 games that season. The victory spike proved short lived as Minnesota fell below .500 for the following four years. The attendance dipped over the same stretch, but Minnesota continued to rank second in the AL Central in average attendance. In 2015, the Twins won 13 more games than the previous year, but average attendance actually dipped by 377 people per game. It remains to be seen if that progress translates to a larger crowd in 2016. Un-fun fact: The Twins have not reached the postseason since 2010 and have not won a playoff game since 2004 (0-9 in three ALDS appearances).
Cleveland Indians
The past ten years of Cleveland baseball have not been the best in franchise history. The Tribe qualified for the playoffs a scant two seasons — 2007 and 2013 — the latter of which lasted all of nine innings in a Wild Card Game loss to Tampa Bay. From 2006 to 2010, the Indians averaged a hair over 24,000 fans per game. Since then the numbers have plummeted. Last season marked the fourth in a row of average attendance dropping. Over the second half of the decade Cleveland saw on average 19,684 fans per contest. Despite a 93-win season in 2013, the 2014 numbers dropped a full 1,200 people per game. The Tribe has finished over .500 for three straight seasons, but the gate receipts would not suggest such on-field consistency.
So what do the numbers teach us? A winning season one year does not necessarily translate to a standing room only crowd the following. Too many factors are at play to directly correlate winning with attendance. Even for a pennant favorite with a free spending GM, 42 degrees in April is still tough on a school night. Still, the numbers do seem to confirm what the eye test suggests — a winning team draws a bigger crowd. Even winning can only do so much though. As WFNY’s own Jacob Rosen wrote three years ago, the Indians current attendance reality more closely resembles their pre-Jacobs/Progressive Field numbers and historical norms. In fact, the average attendance over the past ten years (21,594 per game) is higher than any other ten-year stretch in Cleveland baseball history from 1901-1993. The next closest run is 1947-1956, which averaged 19,325.
Paul Dolan remains motionless in center field. The sun has completely sunk behind the left field foul pole. The number “455” hangs like a dead albatross among the names of Cleveland immortals. The number represents a long gone era when even a drizzly Monday night could produce a sold-out park.
Dolan knows in his bones a similar streak will never come his way again, not unless the Browns leave town a second time coupled with total Cavaliers irrelevancy. He understands that hot dog races, The Corner, and bobbleheads can only do so much. Even winning is not a surefire path to a sellout. The best he can do is heed the voice’s call and hope people will come.
36 Comments
It’s not just winning. It’s a perception of performance versus expected performance and also a factor of what point during the season a team performs well.
Team A: Team is supposed to contend for the World Series, but they come out of the gates slow, the crowd enthusiasm will dwindle. Team A wins 85 games or so.
Team B: Team is supposed to be mediocre and instead, they catch fire and come out the gates hot. Eventually, their pace cools, they start to perform to their expected level. Team B wins 80 games.
Which team do you think has better attendance at the end of the season?
“A Decade….” oh, an AL Central article… baseball! Okay, I’m down. Let me just read the next word…..
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/nvrmnd.gif
Hey wait a minute mister!
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/wvnOO.gif
That and the Indians are well um boring. Well a little less since Lindor but overall personality severely lacks on this team. But most importantly chicks dig the long ball!
“Hey, you guys wanna talk Tribe attendance?”
http://i.imgur.com/dHUvu7I.gif
Sigh.
Fan attendance is driven by Season Ticket Holders (STH). STH sales are driven by corporate ticket sales. There is a subset of attendance driven by winning, but that is by a market economy heavily influenced by demand. Scarcity impacts demand, and when corporate sales are low, scarcity is non-existent except for the traditional hot days like Summer Saturdays, fireworks, and Father’s Day (& maybe games vs NYY and BOS).
Until corporate ticket sales rebound, overall attendance will lag. Corporate sales took a huge plunge in the late 90s and the Tribe has never gotten them back. They won’t either. The Cavs offer a vastly superior product that is also better for corporate entertaining.
If you want to truly understand this issue, attempt to get your hands on the corporate ticket sales since 1992 and relate them to local economy. You’re doing all this work trying to make sense of it in regards to winning when that is and always will be, a minor driver in overall attendance.
TRIBE ATTENDANCE TALK???
You snooze, you lose.
Casual fans don’t want to see a 1-0 defensive pitching battle with a total of 3 hits. It’s boring to anyone but a baseball purist. Can we just give everyone their steroids back and make baseball fun again?
K, so…….could we just go ahead and say then if they win (MORE EXCITINGLY AND MORE BETTER THAN THE CAVS) the corporate ticket sales would also increase thusly improving the “fan attendance”?
Monday!
Agreed. As much as it hurts to admit, I never paid more attention to non-Indians baseball than when watching McGuire and Sosa smack 70 HRs. Game after game, I was tuned in. Now, I barely even want to watch the hometown team unless I’m actually going to the game, let alone anyone else…
Indians also lack that one bona fide superstar. You can say what you want about Kluber or Brantley they just are not national.
It only would fractionally. The # of businesses in CLE area are less than 20 years ago, there’s more chain-type stuff that has no interest in B2B sales where tickets are nice, and most of these corporations give no concern about employee morale and using tickets as a helper in associate satisfaction.
The Tribe should have taken the # of seats down another 10k at least.
Yes, Cleveland’s corporate community has certainly shrunk since 1994, as it has for most Midwestern cities. The mid-level Fortune 500 companies that used to occupy places like Cleveland are either much smaller than they used to be or are now part of larger conglomerates headquartered on the East and West coasts.
Certainly, the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals have cushioned this blow as both are substantially bigger than they were twenty years ago. As good as they are for the region, I wonder how much they contribute to a professional sports team’s season ticket base. As non-profits, they pay significantly lower taxes, so there is no need to offset income with business expenses like “entertainment.” I wonder how many loges these places actually occupy in Progressive Field.
Very little, and there’s a glut of loges. A place could simply rent it out for a few games instead of the full-year committment. I hope people don’t turn this into a political thing, but there’s also significant wage stagnation that will further impact individuals buying STH as time goes on. It’s not just sports tickets, but if you grew up in this area in the 80s, people had boats, people went golfing a lot, etc. Wage stagnation and COLA is making it more of an effort to go to games, no matter how analytically amazing the Tribe’s ticket sales agenda is crafted.
There’s a lot of factors for sure. But you’re absolutely right in this assessment about this impact on the region (largest employers are non-profits / “realizing non-profit is a tax status and not a business plan”.).
Average attendance over the last ten years does not equal last years average of less than 18,000. Per Forbes, average fan spend per game is $55. Every 1000 average is $4.5M. 23,000 sign a Cespedes. Look at the average other clubs are bringing in, 30K, a $150M+ payroll is a real reality. With this pitching staff and depth for the next 3-5 years, that could make or break whether they win WS or not.
Sorry, maybe I am waxing poetic tonight, but I gotta say. I’m so old I’ve been to bat day double headers with real bats. I have never seen an Indians club so stacked with pitching. They are going to have guys competing for the 4 and five spots that could be legit no 2 pitchers on a lot of clubs. Two years from now, they could have a couple more competing.
Lindor is a special guy. DiBiasio had a great comment over the weekend that he reminded him more of Kenny Lofton than Omar in that he disrupted games. To me, he is a lot like Kenny, only at short instead of center. Can beat you on both sides, in a critical fielding position.
Finally, find me a better manager than Francona. What is not to like about this guy? He was talking about the bullpen analytics he gets on his line up card and how he is not relaxed for the game until he gets it: “I feel like I have an obligation not to guess”…….says the guy who has won a series.
There is a lot to like about this club right now.
Cavs offer a vastly superior product, until they don’t.
You’re making the decision for your firm: You have climate control, closer to downtown offices, and shorter game and more exciting games for the next 8 years or so. I like baseball so this isn’t an either/or attack, but with no NHL in town, for a team with discretionary budget that could invest in Cavs or Tribe, it’s Cavs all day for the time being.
The number one attended team in MLB in 2015 allowed the second fewest runs per game, and were 19th in runs scored per game. The second best attended team? 24th in runs scored, first in runs prevented.
And yet the pair was featured on SI’s 2015 MLB preview edition.
“closer to downtown offices”
We are really scraping the bottom of the barrel for arguments if that couple hundred yards is now a factor.
“What is not to like about this guy?”
Bunts. Mike Aviles fetishes. Deference to “his” guys/vets regardless of their ability. He’s a fine manager, and I would never run him out of town. I’d just like to see a team that is going to need every bit of help scoring runs to not give away so many free outs in 2016.
You just proved my point thank you. That’s the best the Indians could offer. Btw who was on SI’s World Series cover prediction last year?
“Per Forbes, average fan spend per game is $55”
That $55 mark is not how much each fan spends at the park, but local revenues (I’m guessing non-central fund or revenue sharing) divided by the metro population. The Indians made about $20/ticket in 2014 according to the Forbes numbers, but I have no idea on concessions/merchandise. I’d also guess that the next 5,000 through the gate are not the $50/night type spenders, and part of the reason they don’t show is they feel priced out.
And of course, Cespedes doesn’t guarantee another 5,000 in the park every night. From 2012 to 2013, the Indians went from putrid to postseason, adding a couple big names in Francona, Swisher, and Bourn in the offseason. All that work led to a drop in attendance by 130 people a night.
I can’t tell if this is trolling or not, so I guess it must be good trolling.
Huh? Dude stick to analytics please.
ughhhhh – can you put labels on your axes? maybe change the font from calibri? #collegedegree
It’s all about LeBron. When he leaves, the suck continues. 8 years? I say 2, max.
you can think that, but those people are never going back to buying corp tickets for the Tribe. that idea to those people is DOA
I stand corrected, the gate draw averages out to $21.50 per ticket. St Louis on the other extreme, not only draws 3x the fans, but averages $37 a ticket. Kinda depressing.
I went through a bunch of articles and research for my post and I couldn’t find much definitive. But, the Indians lost “season ticket holders” in a good number over the last 10 years and those ticket buyers might be laying more $$$ down on concessions and merch.
“The best he can do is…hope people will come”
This is my complaint with what I see as the approach the organization is taking. Hope is not a plan. Scripty is right about season ticket holders driving average attendance…and season tickets are sold in the offseason. The largest walk-up crowds in the history of the ballpark are in the neighborhood of 5000-6000 people. Even if the team gets hot at some point in the season, the season ticket base remains unchanged…during the season.
You can argue about whether the folks in the organization in charge of acquiring players and coaching players are doing their jobs well. The last few seasons, you can make the case they have been doing it adequately…or at least in an above average fashion. What you cannot argue is that the folks in the organization in charge of selling tickets are doing their jobs adequately.
If there is a ticket-selling campaign going on between September and April, it has been invisible to me, and I assume to many others. Where is the TV ad campaign?…where are the sales reps calling on businesses in person? I see none of that happening. The club’s “ticket reps” seem to be nice people…mine is a very nice lady. What they are not is salespeople. Maybe the club has made someone with ticket sales responsibility accountable for his/her failure. Internal personnel moves like that are not always publicized or visible to the public…but if not…why not?
The club seems to take the approach that there is nothing they can do proactively to affect ticket sales other than to run ever more promotions. I cannot for the life of me understand how they can sit back and just “see who shows up”. Set a goal…say, 5000 more season tickets sold (in one year). Recruit, organize and manage a sales force to make that happen. Accept nothing less than success.
Hope is not a plan.
One more thing…the strategy the club is taking seems obvious. With the removal of more seats and the addition of home plate area “amenities”…bars…food options, etc. targeted at (certain) season ticket holders, the plan seems to be one of giving upon putting more butts in the chairs…and instead squeezing more dollars out of the ones that are already there. The Browns are taking a similar approach, BTW.