A short story about sledding: While We’re Waiting…
February 3, 2016Former Indians RHP Dennis Martinez elected into Canadian Hall of Fame
February 3, 2016Your starting third baseman is now your starting rightfielder, and the youngster you’re grooming for the hot corner may not yet be up to the task. I am referring, of course, to the predicament of the 2006 Cleveland Indians — a club that had moved Casey Blake to the outfield a year prior, then acquired one of the top third base prospects in baseball, Andy Marte, in a January deal with Boston. Flash forward a decade, and the Tribe finds itself in a somewhat similar boat, with Lonnie Chisenhall migrating to right and a young and talented Giovanny Urshela trying to earn his keep.
The difference in the two scenarios, besides Andy Marte’s name now eliciting chuckles, is the stopgap factor. The ’06 team, for better or worse, had an Aaron Boone on hand to steady the waters. Whether this year’s club should follow suit with a David Freese or Juan Uribe remains open to debate. So let’s do what every bored Indians fan is doing in early February, and dive in.
The Historical Context, aka, Boone Goes the Dynamite
Nervous nostril ticks aside, Eric Wedge didn’t have to waste a lot of energy worrying about any hot corner dilemmas heading into the spring of ‘06. As exciting as the 22-year-old Marte might have appeared — he was the No. 14 ranked prospect in all of baseball, after all — the Indians had the luxury of letting him get a little more seasoning in Triple-A before joining Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, and Grady Sizemore as the next bedrock of the franchise. That patience was made possible by the presence of the 33 year-old Aaron Boone. Yes, Booney! (…I know, I sort of forgot he was an Indian, too.)
In fact, by this point in time, the former Cincinnati All-Star and Yankee playoff hero already had a year in Cleveland under his belt, albeit a mediocre one (.243/.299/.378 in 2005). Boone signed his free agent deal with the Tribe in the summer of 2004 while still rehabbing from a torn knee ligament he’d notoriously suffered in an offseason pickup basketball game. It seemed pretty clear two years later that the guy wasn’t on the verge of recapturing any old glories. Nonetheless, the Indians had narrowly missed the playoffs in ’05 and were focused on seriously contending in ’06. That made Boone’s veteran presence more appealing. He was also in the final year of his contract, making $3.75 million — which, believe it or not, considering today’s inflated salaries, was the highest single-season income of his career. All things considered, the commitment to Boone was in place. Cleveland voted for experience at the hot corner.
Of course, as the season unfolded, and the Tribe sputtered along to a disappointing 78-84 record, Boone proved less of a stopgap and more of a deadweight. His .684 OPS and -0.7 WAR were by far the lowest on the team among the regulars, and he wasn’t exactly a wizard with the glove either, committing a team-high 16 errors in just 101 games.
Eventually, Boone’s struggles forced a premature call-up for Marte in late July. Andy — who’d played 24 games for the Braves as a September call-up a year earlier — was having a productive year with Triple-A Buffalo (15 homers and .773 OPS in 96 games), but had a lot of holes in the swing and some considerable work still needed in the field. In Cleveland, he got off to quite the inauspicious start, going 4-for-38 across his first 14 games. Things improved from there, because they had to, as he rounded out the year at .226/.287/.421 with 5 homers and 23 RBIs across 50 games.
The unfortunate truth, however, was that we’d seen all there was to be seen of our “third baseman of the future.” Sure, Marte would play parts of the next FOUR seasons in Cleveland, but his performance never deviated from those original ugly returns. His career numbers: .218/.276/.358 with 21 HR and 99 RBI in 308 games. The Indians have been looking for answers at this position for 10 years, folks. And that’s only if you considered Casey Blake an “answer.”
What a Fella, Giovanny Urshela
In the eyes of most scouts, a young Andy Marte had considerably more offensive upside than Gio Urshela, a fairly light-hitting prospect who managed to displace Chisenhall at third last year almost exclusively for defensive reasons. At the dish, Ursh looked mighty overmatched most of his rookie campaign, winding up with an ugly .608 OPS in 81 games. As far as depth goes, with Chris Johnson unceremoniously released and Lonnie planted in right field, the 24-year-old Urshela’s only real competition is 23-year-old Jose Ramirez — a guy who’s shown flashes of excellence in between long stretches of frustration at the plate and in the field. He barely bested Gio with a .631 OPS of his own, but did rebound late in the year after a horrific start.
Neither Urshela nor Ramirez represent the sort of pop you’d normally expect from a corner infielder, but with Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis offering above-average power up the middle, the argument for letting defense win the day at the hot corner makes some sense.
The question is, if you believe you have a shot of making the playoffs in 2016 — which just about everyone agrees the Indians do — are you content to ride Urshela and Ramirez? Or, as the free agency barrel rattles around to its dregs, do you bring in a proven veteran like the aforementioned David Freese or Juan Uribe to solidify the position, bolster the lineup, and improve the overall depth of the roster?
[Insert snarky comment about how Todd Frazier would have solved all these problems a lot better than either of those guys].1
Yeah, maybe. But you could go a step snarkier and suggest that Chris Johnson was virtually as valuable as either Freese or Uribe from an offensive standpoint, and the Indians preferred paying him to go away entirely.
We’ve Put a Freese on Uribe Account
Juan Uribe, who’s built a bit like Ronnie Belliard’s stockier uncle and has played for every MLB team except the Indians, is about to turn 37 — he needs to knock Cleveland off that list. Juan’s a career .256 hitter coming off a season in which he split time between the Dodgers, Braves, and Mets, posting a .253/.320/.417 slash. A solid defender in his youth, he was very average at best last year, posting a UZR of 1.4.
David Freese managed a 0.3 UZR in 2015 (for comparison purposes, Urshela had a 4.1 UZR, 11th best among players with 600 innings played at third base). Like Aaron Boone ten years ago, Freese is headed into his age-33 season; a player past his prime, puppy-faced, and best remembered for a playoff home run from a while ago. That being said, he didn’t stink last year with Anaheim. In 121 games, he posted a .257/.323/.420 slash with 14 HR and 56 RBIs. Those numbers would look pretty decent in the Tribe lineup. Still, we’re talking about a guy who only ever had one really great season (2012) and has a career OPS of .761. His closest career comp at his position, ironically, is Chris Johnson.
Whether it’s Freese or Uribe (the latter has been the source of far more Cleveland-related rumors) or a possible spring invitee like Casey McGehee, ex-Tiger prospect Jefry Marte, or, hell, Andy Marte (he’s only 32!), bringing in a bargain basement veteran to challenge Urshela and Ramirez isn’t exactly going to electrify the zombified Cleveland fan base. It’s probably the logical way to go, however, judging by the market and lack of other teams actively looking for a potential starting third baseman at this point in the winter.
If anything, the situation is perhaps too remindful of the way in which Michael Bourn fell into the Indians’ arms in 2013, taking less money than he wanted late in the free agency game. Maybe an even better comparison point is Mark Reynolds, who was brought in back in 2013 (at a cool $6 million) to play third base and keep the pressure off Lonnie Chisenhall. Things went well for a while, but as with Boone, Reynolds wore out his welcome by the dog days and Lonnie was pushed into action, struggling mightily.
Maybe that’s one reason Antonetti, Chernoff, and Co. might be hesitant to pull the trigger on another stopgap, costly veteran. Shivers down the spine from the Swisher, Bourn, and Reynolds sagas, among others. Then again, lest it be forgotten, the Indians did achieve their goal in 2013, when all those players were signed. They made the postseason (technically). The constant struggle in these situations is getting a player to agree to a contract that reflects something close to his actual value as a 30-something stopgap. Maybe something like Aaron Boone’s $3.75 million would do the trick for the peace of mind of a Freese or Uribe. That’s not completely insulting at this point, is it?
- Ed. note: No, seriously. [↩]
11 Comments
Fangraphs crowdsourcing has Uribe getting $16M/2yrs and Freese at $18M/2yrs. MLBtraderumors.com has Freese at $30M/3yrs. Can’t find a Uribe prediction from them. So $3.75M? Or even Reynolds $6M? Not likely.
Oh believe me, the last sentence was purely tongue-in-cheek. It’s fairly amazing how much these types of low-level rental deals have skyrocketed in just the past decade. Boone’s contract blew me away, though i suppose the knee injury had a lot to do with it.
The URSH logo is just outstanding…………
Listening to Francona over the weekend, it sure sounded like he wanting to bring someone in to challenge Urshela.
I wasn’t quite sure if that was a joke or not. I know most of the writers here live in the real world when it comes to MLB salaries, but I see too much “Lets get Heyward for $15M!” on the internet to ever be sure.
If we had a legit DH I feel we could better absorb a defense-only guy.
I’d trade Carlos Santana to the Angels for Mike Trout, but Santana had more steals in ’15, so they’d have to throw someone else in too.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCe62ASUMAAxXPI.jpg:large
Better looking popsicle than most
http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/617/998/a7f.jpg
I think you’re forgetting a key component of this debate, which is Yandy Diaz. Diaz put up a tremendous hitting season last year at AA – .315/.415/.408 in 132 games. Urshella never hit over .300 or had an OBP over .400 for a full season of play in the minors, at any level. Granted, Urshella has always been young for the levels he’s played at, and Diaz is about a month older than him, but there’s good reason to believe that Diaz will be a much better major league hitter than Urshella, especially given his walk and strikeout profile, which show him to be a much more patient hitter. One of the worst aspects of Urshella’s game is his complete lack of plate discipline, his top two minor league seasons in BB% are 7.0 and 8.4%, but he’s been in the 2-3% range for some stretches. Diaz actually draws walks at a decent pace (13.8% last year), and that’s one of the few skills that tends to translate reliably to the majors.
The expectation this year should be that Urshella starts the year at 3B, and if he falters then you bring up Diaz as his replacement. I don’t really want Juan Uribe when there’s two cheap young guys you could be cycling through instead.
Besides, the real target should be Martin Prado of the Marlins. The Marlins have their young 3B in waiting, Prado is on an expiring deal, and Prado is a legitimately valuable player (3+ WAR last year). He should be available around the trading deadline. I’d rather see if Urshella or Diaz is viable for the first half, before making a run at Prado around the trading deadline if it doesn’t work out and the Indians are pushing for the playoffs. I’d rather have Prado be that instant upgrade than releasing an old and broken down vet and hoping that Ursh or Diaz can bottle some magic in the last few months.
I would love Prado as I have always been a fan of his game.
On Yandy, scouts are so split on him. His complete lack of power and a swing that doesn’t portend for it to be added means he could carve out a Chris Johnson type career pinging hits. Or, those hits will disappear once he gets to MLB pitching & fielding.
Paying a 37 year old fatso that kind of money is ludicrous. If it is not Urshala – there must be a trade possibility for at .250 hitter with a glove to play 3b. IMO Urshala has shown flashes of better than average ability. Let’s see how ST goes before wasting precious budget dollars on a fatso.