Suffocate City: 2016 Indians to put opposing offenses in choke hold

In the 1990s, the Atlanta Braves were the ying to the Cleveland Indians’ yang. While the Indians had the unstoppable force of a dynamic offense that led them to dominate the AL Central through the decade, the Braves had the immovable object of a Hall of Fame pitching staff that led them to 15 straight division titles. It was a shame that baseball fans were only treated to a pairing of the two ballclubs in the 1995 World Series where pitching and defense won out.¹ Well, the 2016 Indians are now built much more to the model of those 90s Braves teams with a dominant pitching staff backed with some stellar defense.² And, the front office has now supplemented the staff with an incredible defense that could make the Indians the most difficult team to score on in all of Major League Baseball during the 2016 season.

Note before we start: While defensive statistics are still somewhat flawed, they do correlate rather well to what industry experts believe are the most outstanding defensive players. And, StatCast™ is looking at adding even more nuance into what we know about defensive players (who has the best reaction times, speed, et cetera). It is a great time to be a fan of defensive analysis.

The Gloves

Middle Infield

The defense starts with the all-world defensive talent at the most premium defensive position in baseball. Francisco Lindor had a ridiculous amount of hype as a prospect, and then he set the expectations even higher by showing off his seemingly unlimited range, smooth transitions, and ended his plays with strong, accurate throws. In fact, Lindor finished higher than any other shortstop in baseball in UZR/150 with an 18.9 (minimum 500 innings).³ The only thing brighter than the future defensive prospects of Lindor is the smile he gives after a highlight reel play.

Jason Kipnis can be a bit of an enigma on defense. While he has fantastic range when healthy, the defensive statistics are not overly kind to him. In particular, his ability to turn the double play has been brought into question. However, he is nicknamed Dirtbag as he will always make the diving play with no regards to the extra time the equipment manager will need to spend on his uniform. And, it speaks to the complete transformation of the Indians defense that the leader of the 2015 Opening Day defense (non-catcher) is now considered the weakest link.

Backing them up is super-utility infielder Jose Ramirez. While J-Ram’s struggles at the plate are known, he has been a consistent defensive stalwart throughout his MiLB and MLB career at multiple positions. The only time he struggled in the field was when he won the starting shortstop job in 2015. The 300 innings to start last season is the only blemish on his otherwise sparkling defensive resume, which includes positive UZR/150 ratings at second base (12.4 in 349 career innings), third base (48.3 in 114 innings), and even shortstop (2.3 in 885 innings). In nearly 500 innings in 2014, Ramirez also put up a 18.9 UZR/150 at shortstop, so he does have a track record of good defense there as well. In fact, Fangraph’s summation of Ramirez is as such:

Ramirez’s primary obstacle to a successful 2016 season isn’t any particular flaw on his part, but rather just how his club also employs Francisco Lindor.

Corner Infield

There are two ways to look at Mike Napoli’s defense at first base. One could see his defensive numbers have dropped over the past three seasons from UZR/150 of 13.3 to 7.3 to 5.5, and note that he is a 34 year old player who might be experiencing some decline. Or, one could note that the worst of those numbers still makes him a Top 10 defensive first baseman in MLB. Regardless, he is an upgrade to Carlos Santana despite Santana’s defensive progressions.

Santana makes a better part-time first baseman. He has developed to the point of not being a liability and made some fantastic plays as noted in the Santana-specific WFNY preview. However, his upside appears to be that of an average defensive player rather who will sometimes miss the relatively routine play. The good news for the Indians is Santana is capable at first base when needed.

Third base has been a bit of a black hole for the Indians over the past decade. And, while Giovanny Urshela played a fantastic defensive third base for the Tribe in 2015⁴ , his bat simply was a potential liability. So, a one-year veteran replacement was required if the Indians were to give Urshela more time to let his bat catch up to his glove in the minors.

Thus, Juan Uribe was signed as the 37 year old might only be with the team for a year, but the 17 year veteran MLBer is still capable. Don’t let the stoutly physique fool you. Uribe has long held a reputation as a good defensive third baseman where he holds a career mark of 16.2 UZR/150 in over 4400 innings of work. While his 2015 season was off his standard (2.3), it followed a five-year stretch of obtaining at least a 17.8 mark, which dwarfs Adrian Beltre’s league-leading 13.0 from the 2015 season.⁵ The future might be Gio, but Uribe has the present covered.

Catcher

As was noted from the Baseball Prospectus review, Yan Gomes had an off-year behind the plate in 2015 due to his injuries. He had been among the premier defensive catchers in all of baseball with regards to his pitch framing, blocking, and ability to gun down runners. And, the defensive prowess was back on display near the end of the season indicating he was finally back to a good state of health, which has continued this spring. In fact, Gomes’ pop times have become a fascination among baseball fans around the country due to his transitions being so seamless (the time from receiving a pitch to releasing a throw to second base).⁶

And, when Gomes needs a rest – as all catchers do – the Indians happen to possess one of the best backup catchers in baseball with Roberto Perez. Perez has a cannon of his own as he threw out Billy Hamilton twice last year (once in Spring Training). He also spent the offseason training with Yadier Molina, which sounds like a good idea for any catcher. In all, Perez is a crazy good defensive luxury for the Indians on the bench and helps guard against another Gomes injury hurting the Indians.⁷

Outfield

It is impossible to over-state how amazing Lonnie Chisenhall was for the Indians upon his transition to right field in 2015. ESPN’s David Schoenfield gave him the defensive player of the month for August. That is great on its own, but it is almost ludicrous to consider Chisenhall had played less than 10 total professional games in the outfield before that month. Chisenhall’s best in MLB 35.3 UZR/150 in right field was 12 better than anyone else including Jason Heyward. His 11 DRS in just 354 innings was also a rate unbeknownst to any other right fielder in baseball. The sample size was small, but Chisenhall proved that defense will be a chief asset for him.⁸

Now, given that Chisenhall might need a platoon-mate, it should be noted another current Indian popped up in the Top 10 UZR/150 for right fielders in 2015. Marlon Byrd (12.4) not only possesses pop in his bat, but has ranged from an adequate to good defensive outfielder as well in his career. The 38 year old Byrd has not been allowed to log significant time in center field since 2012, but he will not be a liability in the corners. The Big Byrd platoon⁹ should make right field a strength for the Tribe once everyone is healthy.

Unfortunately, Chisenhall will be opening the season on the DL due to injuries to both his right forearm and left wrist. And, while left field will belong to Michael Brantley¹⁰ once he is healthy, he is still recovering from his shoulder surgery. So, to begin the season, it is likely Byrd will be the everyday left fielder and right field will need to be created from depth options for the Tribe.

Fortunately, the Indians have been investing in those depth options this offseason. Collin Cowgill will open the season with the Indians, and he is a great defensive corner outfielder posting a career 21.4 UZR/150 in left field and 25.9 UZR/150 in right field (to go along with positive DRS scores). Cowgill is not the greatest hitter though, so the Tribe can utilize a combination of Jose Ramirez and Rajai Davis against right-handed pitchers until Chisenhall returns.¹¹

With Tyler Naquin making the MLB club, center field defense will not be an issue. The prospect has been considered a defensive stalwart with only his bat holding him back. With his fantastic 2016 Spring Training, the Indians are going to see if he can contribute enough at the plate to keep his defense on the field. The Indians also added former-Tiger Rajai Davis to help in the outfield. Davis’ center field defensive numbers are all over the map, but the 35 year old is yet another veteran who has shown an ability to play solid defense. If the Day-quin platoon can prove itself over the first half of the season, then there might not even be a spot left on the team for Abraham Almonte, who is serving an 80-game PED suspension.

The Arms

Starters

Fangraphs projects the Indians to have the best rotation in the American League with ZiPS seeing Javier Vazquez, Curt Schilling, and Josh Beckett as the top comparables to the rotation. Steamer projections have the Indians rotation also as the top American League club. ESPN’s Christina Kahrl is willing to go a step further and call the Indians starters the best in MLB.

The Indians finished third in AL starter WAR (15.9) and fourth in ERA (3.94) despite having their numbers drug down by a historically awful start to the season by the defense and a rotating fifth starter parade of Zach McAllister, T.J. House, Toru Murata, Shaun Marcum, and Bruce Chen until Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson nailed down the spot the last few weeks of the season. Of the numbers more in control of the pitchers, the Indians starters finished first in the AL in FIP (3.73), first in K% (24.2%), first in K-BB% (18.1%), first in WHIP, but 20th in HR/9 (1.13).

The Indians return three viable AL Cy Young Award candidates in Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. Trevor Bauer remains the X-factor in the rotation, and either Cody Anderson or Josh Tomlin will occupy the last remaining slot. But, the depth is much better in 2016 as not only will either Tomlin or Anderson be available to fill in if needed, but Michael Clevinger and others are ready to go in Columbus. The Indians are currently starting pitcher rich and might even choose to utilize some of these assets to make a move for a hitter should the need arise (outside the Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar triumvirate).

Bullpen

The Indians bullpen was an under-rated asset to the team in 2015. The bullpen arms finished fifth in the AL in WAR (4.9), second in ERA (3.12), first in FIP (3.38), fifth in K% (23%), fourth in k-BB% (15.1%), and first in HR/9 (0.75). The Kansas City Royals fabled bullpen barely finished ahead of them in WAR (5.0) and ERA (2.72), but trailed in all other categories. And, that is even with having a BABIP 41 points lower than the Indians. The Royals had a couple outstanding relievers, but the Indians bullpen was better as a whole unit in 2015 and the Royals are not returning nearly the same group.

With Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Zach McAllister, and Jeff Manship returning, to go along with Ross Detwiler, Dan Otero, Joba Chamberlain, the Indians bullpen should be among the best again in the AL in 2016. Plus, guys like Kyle Crockett await another opportunity and Tommy Hunter continues his rehabilitation. Of course, such projections are done to the point one can project a bullpen, which is among the more difficult exercises to do.

Good luck, American League

The Indians run prevention appears to be a major advantage for the team this season. The weak link on defense might be All-Star Jason Kipnis as seen below in the Fangraphs defensive visualization.¹² Even the bench position players do well on defense. Both the rotation and the bullpen have excellent pitchers at the top and tons of depth extending beyond the 25-man roster to help navigate through the marathon season of MLB.

So, how do you score runs against the Indians in 2016? Well, making contact will be a challenge and getting balls to drop for hits when contact is made will also be a challenge. Loading up on home runs and praying for some luck I guess is about as good of a strategy as any other. There will be bad games where the Indians just don’t have it and give up a ton of runs because baseball. But, there are few teams in MLB that can match the 2016 Cleveland Indians combination of pitching and defense. And, it is going to be fun to watch.

You know my Suffocate City
Oh don’t whine to me man, ’cause you can’t contact the pitches
I’m back on Suffocate City

Don’t yell to me man ’cause you ain’t got hits past the infield
You know my Suffocate City
Is outta sight, Tribe’s all right

I’m back on Suffocate City, I’m back on Suffocate City
Oooh-how, Suffocate City, oooh-how, Suffocate City
Ohhh, wham bam thank you Ham

via Fangraphs

1. With some help from rather expanded strike zones [↩]
2. Way too early to start discussing the Hall of Fame status for the rotation 🙂 [↩]
3. Note: DRS is not quite as kind to Lindor but he still is among the best shortstop per inning with a score of 10 in under 900 innings played. Just not THE best per inning though it is hurt somewhat by a reliance on his double play partner. [↩]
4. 8.0 UZR/150 was a Top 10 mark though 0 DRS indicated he still had room for improvement [↩]
5. DRS of 15 in 2013 and 17 in 2014 add more support to his defensive prowess, but remember where defensive stats are misleading sometimes? Well, Uribe is very good at defense, but it is quite debateable if he is better than Beltre. [↩]
6. #DontRunOnYan [↩]
7. His offense also took some strides forward in 2015 after a slow start. [↩]
8. Anyone even remember the Indians had Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, and David Murphy sharing time in right field early in the 2015 season? [↩]
9. Trademark WFNY [↩]
10. And, left field will actually have better defense while Brantley is on the shelf. Brantley is a great hitter, but only an adequate fielder even in left field. Hopefully, the Indians can keep him out of center field this year where he is less than adequate. [↩]
11. Davis will also be needed against left-handed pitchers for the center field platoon and Joey Butler is a viable option if the Indians need to call someone up from the minors. [↩]
12. Note: in the Fangraphs chart below, it appears they are projecting a near full season from Brantley and their projection systems are rather unkind to players without a long history such as Lindor and Chisenhall. And, the Indians still have a good defense with those limitations. [↩]