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March 2, 2016The calls for a right-handed power bat will persist in perpetuity, no two ways about it. Fans love it when the home team scores runs. But stopping the other guys from scoring runs is important too, and that is an area where the Cleveland Indians have come a long way in a relatively short amount of time.
In 2014, the Indians were among the worst defensive teams in baseball. Lonnie Chisenhall was still at third base, Francisco Lindor had yet to ascend, the infield was a mess, and the outfield was nothing to write home about. Things got better last year once the Chiz Kid moved to the outfield and Frankie took over at shortstop. Now that Chisenhall and Lindor have a year of experience under the belt, Yan Gomes is healthy, and some slick-fielding free agents have come to town, the Tribe’s defense should only get better.
That’s what August Fagerstrom at FanGraphs says, anyway. In his look at the best and worst projected defenses of 2016, the Indians rank second among the most improved, behind only the Los Angeles Angels. Per FanGraph’s projections, the Tribe is projected to save 28 more runs than it did a season ago.
Cleveland Indians (+28) — As Ben Lindbergh chronicled for Grantland (RIP) in September, the Indians just pulled off “the most dramatic midseason makeover we’ve ever seen.” The main catalysts being the arrival of Francisco Lindor at shortstop and the surprisingly smooth transition of Lonnie Chisenhall from third base to right field.
The Indians come in at No. 8 overall in projected runs saved for the coming season, with 20. Most of that value comes from the left side of the infield, where Francisco Lindor and Juan Uribe (with a bit of Jose Ramirez and Giovanny Urshela) will do their work. The Indians are projected to save 16 runs between third base and shortstop alone. Lindor’s defensive bonafides are well known, but don’t sleep on Uribe. He’s older than most fungo bats and doesn’t exactly look like an Adonis out there, but he withstands the temperatures of the hot corner better than most. (First baseman Mike Napoli figures to help out as well, as does a healthy Gomes.)
From John Avsec, also at FanGraphs:
Uribe, who will be 37 on Opening Day, could be a great mentor for youngsters Urshela, Ramirez, and of course Francisco Lindor. Next, consider Uribe’s defense at the hot corner. Over the last three seasons alone he has 33 DRS, making him one of the very best at fielding his position. Uribe’s defense could even be considered an upgrade over that of young Urshela’s. Combined with Mike Napoli (the new Tribe first baseman) and Lindor, the trio have a total of 63 DRS since 2013 (Lindor had 10 in 2015, his only major-league season). His contributions to the Tribe defense, a defense that ranked third in all of major-league baseball in 2015, could be a major factor going forward.
As for how FanGraphs came up with these numbers, it’s basically a mix of different projection systems, including ZiPS and Steamer.
The methodology here is simple. ZiPS considers past defensive performance and mixes in some scouting report information to give an overall “defensive runs above or below average” projection. Steamer does the same, except rather than searching for keywords from real scouting reports, it regresses towards the data from the Fans Scouting Report project compiled by Tangotiger every year. The final number is an average of these two figures, and can be found in the “Fld” section of the depth charts and player pages. It isn’t exactly Ultimate Zone Rating or Defensive Runs Saved, but it’s the same idea, and the same scale.
The Indians trail only the World Series-winning Kansas City Royals in projected runs saved among AL Central teams. The Royals are projected to save 44 runs defensively, with their outfield alone accounting for 32.
6 Comments
I can see this based on how awful they were to start the year last year.
Seriously, even if they dont pick up Uribe/Napoli the addition of Lindor and the subtraction Chisenhall from the infield should dramatically improve the first months.
Love Fagerstrom’s work though I don’t think Uribe is an upgrade to Gio defensively. Gio has way more range (Uribe is good though and obviously more reliable bat).
He’s a “Twitter must follow” in-season.
And out of season
Criswell’s guide to easy prognostication –
1.) choose an extreme outlier
2.) predict it will regress to the mean