Former Ohio State, Saints star Will Smith fatally shot late Saturday night
April 11, 2016
Cardale Jones is happy to be done with the NCAA
April 11, 2016With the NFL Draft rapidly approaching, draft profiles of all the top names are being bantered about in all of their pronoun-free glory. Quarterback intangibles, wide receiver work ethic, on-and-off-field examinations…you name it. All there in large, ellipses-filled paragraphs that completely eliminate needless words like “the.”
While quarterbacks and play-making defenders will be all the talk in the coming weeks, in the upcoming NFL Draft-based issue of ESPN The Magazine, senior writer David Fleming pens a profile on the name that may ultimately be the most important of all: Cleveland Browns Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta. From the moment Fleming heard that DePodesta was leaving the Mets for a new team in a completely different sport, he endeavored to write the story about a man who is not just tasked with changing the way football minds process information, but doing so for a team that has been completely bereft of anything that resembles success, both on the field and inside the front office.
From Fleming, in a piece titled “I Thought He was a Genius Until He Agreed to Work for the Browns“:
Basis of what DePodesta and Browns are attempting not new. Majority of NFL teams begrudgingly use analytics without fully embracing concept. Besides scouting and drafting, teams employ analytics to weigh trades, allot practice time, call plays (example: evolving mindset regarding fourth downs) and manage clock. What will differentiate DePodesta and Cleveland is extent to which Browns use data science to influence decision-making. DePodesta would like decisions to be informed by 60 percent data, 40 percent scouting. Present-day NFL is more 70 percent scouting and 30 percent data. DePodesta won’t just ponder scouts’ performance but question their very existence. …
Securing the future of analytics in football will require massive amounts of talent, patience and intellectual ingenuity from franchise notoriously devoid of all three. At MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, unilateral fear existed inside analytics community that systemic ineptitude of Browns franchise will be too substantial for even DePodesta to repair. Failure would damage legacy of beloved industry pioneer and set field of sports data science back decades. “If you love analytics and want it to grow and succeed in the NFL, then you know Cleveland is a nightmare scenario,” states NFL executive with 20 years of experience in analytics. “Cleveland is a crazy, terrible place for this to be tested in football.” …
Consensus inside NFL: Browns will get worse, much worse, before they get better, and turnaround could require up to five years, or twice the time Haslam typically tolerates.
The entire piece is well reported and written in short, quick sentences with tons of predicates and little in the way of subjects. It had to be an editor’s nightmare, but it’s a fantastic challenge from a writer’s standpoint and will work so, so well in the magazine.
Assuming he’s given the time, DePodesta is bound to raise more eyebrows over the next several seasons. We don’t know what his way of analysis will mean in the way of obtaining value surplus, but we do know that it has to be wildly different from what the Browns have done over the last decade. For starters, it means little-to-no free agent spending, a deeply discounted former Heisman winner, and a complete gutting of all highly compensated veterans who are on the down side of their respective career arcs.1 Also worth noting: Hue Jackson, here, is considered a “wild card,” a gut-first guy who does rely on old-school scouting and is thought to be a “very bad fit.”
Take that “talent, patience and intellectual ingenuity” line and you have the pre-DePodesta Oakland As. From the standpoint of the Browns, however, this will be a multi-season version of Moneyball where the end of the story involves just as high a probability of Jimmy Haslam blowing things up as it does resulting in a storybook level of success. As it’s painted now, there’s very little middle ground.
Unsolicited, on the very matter, Fleming had the following to say:
@WFNYScott my heart says it would be so cool to see CLE lead this analytics revolution, my brains says this prob goes the way of the 76ers.
— David Fleming (@FlemESPN) April 11, 2016
When I asked him what would lead Browns fans down the road of infinite sorrow, he had came with the hammer.
@WFNYScott A classic Cleveland Shakespearean plot: Depo's plan will be just about to work, when Haslam fires him & names himself GM
— David Fleming (@FlemESPN) April 11, 2016
Get your tickets now!
- Interesting tidbits include the Browns having been offered a first-and second-round pick for Joe Thomas before last season’s trade deadline. [↩]
23 Comments
“unilateral fear existed inside analytics community that systemic ineptitude of Browns franchise will be too substantial for even DePodesta to repair.”
I would understand that if there were people in the building who could potentially thwart the new regime… but there’s not. All of the decision makers were fired, save the owner, and even he is now being required to run everything by his better half, who is probably the more talented business mind of the pair (in my opinion). For those of us who don’t actually believe in superstition, there is no tangible or real barrier to this new regime succeeding with the Browns when compared to other teams. It really makes me believe this “NFL executive with 20 years of experience in analytics” is a special kind of idiot. Superstition is the exact opposite of analytics. His experience with analytics must have been to take the printouts to the restroom and use them as toilet paper while he gained a competitive advantage by mimicking the latest “Hi and Lois” comic strip.
Thwart the new regime in building:
(1) Hue Jackson and coaches – let us hope they were leveled with exactly what to expect and they’ll be on board through the rough patches.
(2) Jimmy Haslam’s patience – he needs to have it here.
Both have been addressed by Haslem and Sashi Brown in press conferences and radio interviews. The answer to 1) is that Hue Jackson was brought on board with full knowledge of the front office intentions and has spoken openly about his desire to use the mystical “analytics” and work in lockstep with Paul. Remember that Paul was one of the key reasons he wanted to come work with the Browns. 2) is that Jimmy and Dee Haslem have preached that they will have patience in this plan. If people want to write articles based on their disbelief of those things based on the past, that’s fine, but it’s a really weak and lazy position to take. It’s based entirely on gut feeling rather than anything actual.
I understand. Just going on Browns paranoia and history (hope it doesn’t happen, but cannot help but guard myself too).
I’ve just hit my quota for blind pessimism today. Between the shots in this article from some random executive and the garbage in the ProFootballTalk article, I’ve hit my BS limit. I still believe so strongly in the ineptitude of Jim O’Neil and the previous coaching staff that I don’t believe the Browns are in for another 5 years of failure. I just don’t buy it… if the NFL has shown us anything, it’s that good coaching can turn a team around at the drop of a hat. And aside from Hue Jackson, who I love, I think there are too many excellent and winning coaches on this staff to allow for the misery we’ve seen since 1999.
“Superstition is the exact opposite of analytics”
exact. nice.
you do need talent, so my 2016 optimism is not optimal.
but, I do think there is a large contingent of NFL execs who are rooting mercilessly for the Browns analytical model to fail just because of what it would represent for the league. so, there will be plenty of those types of quotes regardless of maneuvers from Browns until they start winning consistently.
Blatant mischaracterizations? Check.
Preposterously incorrect assumptions? Check.
Silly narrative baiting? Check.
Yawn? Check.
How dare you. Sources say the executive preferred other comics. He was the lone brave sole who liked Family Circus, which is like a New Yorker head scratcher comic for parents (who had been lobotomized). Further, he liked Peanuts when it ran, but only the later years where Schultz’s shaky hand would draw a distorted Snoopy, and the aimless plotline would be that Snoopy’s food bowl had been knocked over. He also liked Doonesbury when it ran, although he didn’t know why. Although he was astute in analytics, he stayed away from Sudoku because it would make his brain hurt.
The Browns do need an infusion of talent, but I don’t think they are at the level the Raiders were in Hue’s first head coaching gig or where Jacksonville was before drafting Bortles. It’s the reason I was kind of disappointed when I heard the term “full rebuild”. The Browns have quite a few players who have shown to be good players. It’s funny how much people overreact to one bad season. Two years ago at this time, the Browns’ defense had just completed a pretty decent season and was expecting to be bolstered by even more talent. Then Jim O’Neil happens and the defense finishes at the bottom of the pack. In that scenario, is the problem a lack of talent, or is the problem the guy pulling the strings? The defense has lost Gipson, Dansby, and Whitner, the latter of whom has actually been more of a detriment to the defense during his time as a Brown. When I look at John Hughes, Danny Shelton, Desmond Bryant, Paul Kruger, Demario Davis, Chris Kirksey, Nate Orchard, Tramon Williams, Rahim Moore, Ibrahim Campbell, and Joe Haden… I think that unit can actually be pretty good if they have someone who knows what he is doing calling the defensive plays. They even have some depth guys I like in Jamie Meder, Xavier Cooper, Armonty Bryant (if he comes back from his self-destruction), K’Waun Williams, Charles Gaines, Pierre Desir, and Jordan Poyer. Would the team be better if they hadn’t shipped off some of their senior talent? Sure. But regardless, the defense by itself will be much better just because of who is coaching them.
“cleveland is a nightmare scenario” … disagree completely. this is best scenario for depodesta. if he was in new england , no matter what he did , they would say it is their current system that makes it all work … and if he failed , or they had a less-than-stellar record in new england , they might point the finger at paul.
in cleveland , any success at all is going to be an improvement than averaging 4 or 5 wins a year … new england is averaging 11 or 12 wins a year . this would be the best place to gauge depodesta & analytics … if he can help turn the browns around , then everyone will be on the bandwagon , if they aren’t already.
good post PAT … i’m in the same camp.
… you’re on a roll , bro.
Fleming is on my shit-list now … watch your step , Dave !!
Just finished listening to the ESPN: The Magazine podcast where Fleming talks about his story. It’s worse. The two hosts/editors are basically as informed about the situation going on with the Browns as my mother is. They talk about the involvement of Paul DePodesta and the analytics angle as if it’s something that is going to blindside Hue Jackson. PAUL WAS IN THE INTERVIEW TO HIRE HUE. Hue spent literally the next week telling radio and print journalists about how excited he was after that interview and how willing he is (and has always been) to incorporate analytics into what he does on the field. It seriously feels like two people coming out of a drug-induced coma to find out what is going on with the Browns and then offering commentary.
Yes, not worried about who the defense lost though Gipson is good when healthy. I am worried about not having playmakers on that side, but Whitner/Dansby weren’t that guy either.
Fleming has always been a good writer, I enjoy him. Also, for that list, Fleming is the one that uncovered the Atlanta Falcons punter did not in fact “poop his pants” but it was a burst hemorroid. Back in like 2001 on Page-2 days.
Also:
http://www.amazon.com/Noahs-Rainbow-Fathers-Emotional-Daughter/dp/0895033151
I always thought the opposite of superstition was ordinarystition.
Yeah I think there are people out there who would point to the interceptions Gipson had in that season when he was declared a Pro Bowl player, and they don’t realize how many of those were just dumb luck. If there is something the defense definitely lacks, it is playmaking linebackers. I think we could see some guys start to emerge as playmakers. I think Davis can be a playmaker in the run and blitz game. I think Kirksey can be a playmaker in the pass game. Kruger has had seasons where he’s been a playmaker. Orchard seemed like he was becoming a version of a playmaker towards the end of last season. Need more consistency and more talent to bolster those positions.
hi MG … i can see people questioning the Browns track record , but not De-Podesta’s.
Plenty of people still ask him how many rings he won with the 90s Indians, 00 A’s, Dodgers, even Mets. But, he (and that Indians FO group) did change how MLB is run. Sort of a big deal there.
Family Circus. Worst. Comic. Ever.
That fatass was the anti-Calvin.
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