C-Cap Recap: Death From Above

Bryan Shaw might be a serious problem, but the rest of the Cleveland Indians looked OK—until the sun came out.

Considering the minuscule run support and general “tough luck” Corey Kluber has endured over the past year, some have said there’s a dark cloud hovering over the former Cy Young Award winner’s head. On Sunday, that supposed cloud sure could have come in handy, as the Indians defense lost three separate pop flies in the bright spring sunshine over Progressive Field, assisting the Mets to a runaway, series clinching 6-0 win. The sight of Rajai Davis falling to the ground in center field and shielding himself from… nothing… became the central image of the weekend. But between Cody Anderson on Friday, Bryan Shaw on Saturday, and the Klubot on Sunday, there was a lot of ugliness to over-analyze.

So let’s do what we do in April and put a few pitchers on trial, shall we?

Weekend Re-Capping

This series certainly had a lot going for it on paper—the first nice weather of the year, a rare visit from the defending NL Champion New York Mets, and a showdown of arguably the two best starting rotations in baseball. The marquee match-ups didn’t really line up for us, however. There would be no appearances from Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, or Danny Salazar, and the two headlining names who did take the bump—Matt Harvey and Corey Kluber—wouldn’t be squaring off head to head. Instead, we were given three lesser duels—Anderson v. Colon, Tomlin v. Harvey, and Kluber v. Matz.  At quick glance, you had to like Cleveland’s chances against a 42-year-old Colon, while Matt Harvey seemed a safe bet against a likely rusty Josh Tomlin coming off a 17-day rest.

Sunday, the good money was on Kluber to right the ship and get his first win. None of the things above happened. But at least Tyler Naquin threw himself into a wall for your amusement.

https://vine.co/v/itH6vx1xhwz

Friday:
Mets 6, Indians 5
W: Bartolo Colon (1-1), L: Cody Anderson (0-1), S: Jeurys Familia (3)
Boxscore Excerpt: Anderson | 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 HR

“The People vs. Cody Andrew Anderson”

Through their first eight ballgames of the year, New York had managed just three homeruns as a team, total. They matched that number in the fifth inning alone on Friday, suddenly turning an entertaining 1-1 contest into a blowout (at least temporarily).

Cody Anderson, who actually earned comparisons to Matt Harvey in the spring with his improved velocity and almost obnoxious dedication to “the craft,” surrendered a solo homer in the first inning to Michael Conforto, then slinked his way out of a couple jams in the next few innings, as he has shown a Tomlinesque flair for doing. Finally, in the fifth, it all came apart—not in a slow, miserable unraveling way like Kluber’s effort on Sunday—but with a few quick, merciful blows to the head. Alejandro De Aza—the extremely mediocre ex-White Sox outfielder and notorious, inexplicable Tribe killer—got it started with a homer to center field. De Aza has a .818 career OPS against Cleveland, about 100 points above his mark against the rest of the league.

Anderson got the next two guys out, then coughed up a single to Conforto, a two-run bomb to Yoenis Cespedes (pretty forgivable), and a single to Lucas Duda.

https://vine.co/v/itH2rq176Mi

For whatever reason, the fifth inning has routinely posed problems for Cody. Overall, he has handled himself quite well in the middle innings, just not No. 5.

Opponents vs. Cody Anderson in Middle Innings (2015 and 2016)
4th Inning: .143 AVG / .222 OBP / .184 SLG
5th Inning: .316 AVG / .371 OBP / .544 SLG
6th Inning: .190 AVG / .222 OBP / .286 SLG

Yeah, beats me.

In any case, Tito Francona reluctantly went out and pulled his prized pupil in the fifth, then called on troubled transfer student Ross Detwiler, who was busy throwing spit balls in the back of the classroom. “Ross, you’re the only kid I’ve got who throws with his left hand. Get up here and face Neil Walker,” Mr. Francona said. And so surly little Ross went out there, threw one dopey pitch, and Walker planted it in the bleachers to conclude the onslaught. Detwiler had a humorous 7.25 ERA across 41 games last season, and is sitting at 10.13 through his first four appearances this year. So if his job is to make Bryan Shaw’s numbers look less horrifying by comparison, I guess mission accomplished so far?

Was Bartolo Colon much better than Anderson? Well, I generally put my fingers in my ears and sing “la la la” any time people start talking about the Indians’ offensive woes during this difficult Brantley-less adjustment period, so I’m not even going to mention Cleveland’s 2-for-14 effort with RISP, or their complete failure to deliver the knockout blow on a vulnerable Colon (8 hits allowed in 5 1/3 IP). I also see little reason to harp on the team’s gallant comeback attempt in the ninth, when Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia very nearly blew a four-run lead for New York. Carlos Santana homered, but you probably still dislike him.

https://vine.co/v/itTXBX3L7IA

Hey, who added that highlight? Let’s keep the focus on the man on trial here—Cody Anderson: is he guilty of crimes against reliability as a No. 4 starter?

VERDICT: We the People find the defendant Not Guilty! He might have missed his spots a few times, but if you really think it’s time to consider a change, you’ve clearly been flying too many drones with your buddy Trevor.

Saturday:
Indians 7, Mets 5
W: Josh Tomlin (1-0), L: Matt Harvey (0-3), S: Cody Allen (3)
Boxscore Excerpt: Shaw | 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 HR

“The People vs. Bryan Anthony Shaw”

Rather than breaking down this game in detail, I’ll just say it was Friday’s game in reverse. This time it was the Indians breaking open a tight game in the middle innings, and New York eventually closing the gap uncomfortably. Matt Harvey, like Kluber, is still a very good pitcher despite an 0-3 start and all the accompanying New York media hysteria. He had a perfect game into the fifth in this one, before a Santana walk and steal led to a Jose Ramirez RBI double and an RBI single from Juan Uribe. Kipnis, Napoli, and Gomes all drove in runs off a rattled Harvey in the following inning, giving Tomlin a 5-1 lead to work with. Josh, perhaps affected by that three-week layoff, had to leave after five with a hamstring cramp of some kind (seems to be okay), but he was excellent: 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB (as usual), 6 K, 1 HR (as usual).

Hey, to be fair, we should probably show Rajai Davis making a good catch, too, because you know we’re gonna show something else sooner than later.

https://vine.co/v/itPz0BMpdHO

Back on the hill, Jeff Manship and Zach McAllister handled the sixth and seventh innings and remained perfect on the season. Then…

For the second consecutive Saturday, Bryan Shaw—former dependable set-up man—found himself staring pure Pestano-dom in the face. His effort in the eighth inning against the Mets mirrored his Chicago meltdown with frightening symmetry.

Shaw vs. White Sox, April 9: 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 HR
Shaw vs. Mets, April 16: 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 HR

Fortunately, Cleveland had extended its lead to 7-2 behind a Lindor RBI double and Napoli RBI single in the top of seventh, so even after Shaw started another dumpster fire, Francona was able to run on to the field like the bat-out-of-hell ambulance from Madden Football ’92, running directly over Shaw before dragging him off the field in a heap of lost confidence. Cody Allen got a 4-out save. He’s cool.

As for that other guy, the People find Bryan Anthony Shaw… GUILTY of being a potentially really serious problem. Critics have pointed to his velocity drop and some struggles late in 2015, while defenders, like myself, have noted a consistent track record and a quick recovery from a rough April last year. So far, the critics are winning. The only good news is that the Indians bullpen, as a whole, seems at least somewhat prepared for a potential Shaw deletion. Along with the mighty Manship and McAllister, Dan Otero is off to a solid start, and Joba Chamberlain has gotten the job done—not to mention Trevor Bauer as that ever present wild card. Maybe the Bauer-to-the-Pen decision had more to with fears about good ole B. Shaw than we initially realized.

Sunday:
Mets 6, Indians 0
W: Steven Matz (1-1), L: Corey Kluber (0-3)
Boxscore Excerpt: Kluber | 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K

“The People vs. Corey Scott Kluber”

If ever there were an argument for the importance of the observable, three-dimensional world over the analytics world, it’d be a game like this one, in which Mr. Tough Luck, the slightly malfunctioning Klubot, was KO’d by the sun. Along with a dropped Yan Gomes pop fly in the first inning, the killer second inning rally by New York was propelled by two routine fly balls to center field that both dropped within a few feet of a blinded Rajai Davis. Those disasters went down as a double and triple in the scorebook, and may eventually help contribute to arguments about Kluber’s all-around statistical decline. A sun ball is basically baseball’s equivalent of a tipped ball interception in football.

Sorry, Jared Goff, but 9 out of 10 people aren’t gonna watch the film of that five-pick game. They just see the five.

https://vine.co/v/it3PhrjDVII

As far as the actual outcome of this game is concerned, the sun factor didn’t really matter all that much. The Indians offense was utterly useless all afternoon, managing just three hits off the tricky southpaw Steven Matz, so Kluber’s crummy first inning (before the Rajai center field circus) did all the necessary damage. Still, we’re not talking about the sticks today. There will be plenty of time for that. The question right now is, do we have any reason for legitimate concern about our beloved Hans Kluber?

VERDICT: Not Guilty. There isn’t enough evidence to convict Mr. Kluber beyond a reasonable doubt. If anything, he remains largely a victim of his own circumstances. That said, all the same factors that contributed to his struggles in 2015 are rearing their heads again in 2016, which is more than a little disappointing. The Indians continue to provide nothing in the way of run support, and first innings—along with the much-discussed first pitches—remain points of growing vulnerability.

Corey Kluber in the First Inning:
2013: 1.50 ERA, 3.60 K/BB, Opp: .224 / .267 / .376 / 3 HR
2014: 2.12 ERA, 4.57 K/BB, Opp: .244 / .289 / .346 / 2 HR
2015: 5.62 ERA, 7.25 K/BB, Opp: .272 / .303 / .488 / 6 HR
2016: 9.00 ERA, 3.00 K/BB, Opp: .308 / .357 / .385 / 0 HR

The interesting trend within the trend is that Kluber’s K/BB ratio has improved even as he’s scuffled more at the start of games. His ability to consistently throw strikes, in a roundabout way, has also contributed to players teeing off on him successfully out of the gate.

Anyway, I’m not worried if you’re not worried. The Indians are 5-5. What else can be said but “okay, I guess.”