Fun with Lineups: The Cleveland Cavaliers
April 15, 2016NBA announces approval of official jersey sponsorships
April 15, 2016TINSTAAQP might as well be part of the normal fan speak this time of year when it comes to the NFL Draft.1 There Is No Such Thing As A Quarterback Prospect is a subtly often repeated idea expressed through everything from whispers to shouts of names such as Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Brandon Weeden, and Johnny Manziel. NFL teams might as well shoot darts at quarterback names given the way many speak of drafting the elusive beast known as a franchise quarterback. Except, when sifting through the empirical evidence, NFL teams are actually sort of amazing at sorting out the best of the best quarterback prospects. It is only when they dive further that the waters get murky.
In light of the Los Angeles Rams trading up to the first overall pick in order to select their quarterback, here’s a look at what it means for the Browns to be picking second if they go the route of a quarterback selection.
Drafting quarterbacks No. 1 overall
As seen in the pro-football-reference chart above, 21 quarterbacks have been selected as the first overall pick in the NFL Draft since 1970. Of those picks, few have not had at least 10 years as a starter and/or multiple Pro-Bowl appearances.2 Jeff George (one short with nine years as a starter), Tim Couch, David Carr, and JaMarcus Russell are the only four quarterbacks who did not meet that standard. Sam Bradford appears to be the only quarterback still playing who will fail to measure up though it is far too early for a true indicator on Jameis Winston.
Sure, players such as Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, Vinny Testeverde, and Alex Smith were not future Hall of Fame players, but they did prove useful quarterbacks for their teams over the years. Far better than any quarterback the Browns have had since their rebirth in 1999.
Looking through those 21 quarterbacks, the ridiculousness of the bust that was Russell stands out even more as Couch and Carr could at least blame years of abuse from being drafted onto expansion teams with horrific offensive lines.
Drafting quarterbacks No. 2 overall
Strangely, 1973 was the only year where the first quarterback selected was done with the second-overall pick when the Baltimore Colts selected Bert Jones. Jones was a mediocre quarterback that flirted with .500 his whole career while being more of a game manager (kept TDs above INTs, but wasn’t making plays to help the team win either).
Top 2 pick as 2nd QB:
15 Mariota (Winston #1)
12 RG3 (Luck)
99 McNabb (Couch)
98 Leaf (P.Manning)
93 Mirer (Bledsoe)
71 A.Manning (Plunkett)— michael bode (@mgbode_WFNY) April 14, 2016
The less than inspiring list continues with six quarterbacks selected after a No. 1Â pick was also used on a quarterback. Marcus Mariota (with Winston No. 1), Robert Griffin III (Luck), Donovan McNabb (Couch), Ryan Leaf (P.Manning), Rick Mirer (Bledsoe), and Archie Manning (Plunkett). Of these selections, only McNabb was obviously better than the quarterback drafted ahead of them in hindsight (Mariota versus Winston is now playing out).
Now, the question would become whether these NFL teams reached in order to fill a desperate need or whether their scouting merely failed them. But, it is clear that drafting the second quarterback is much riskier even high in the draft.
Drafting quarterbacks No. 3 or 4
While recent history is more kind to these quarterbacks, the 13 quarterbacks selected still leaves much to be desired. Blake Bortles, Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Steve McNair, Heath Shuler, Jim Everett, Art Schlichter, and Jack Thompson are the eight selections who also were the first quarterback taken in their draft. Notice only Philip Rivers of the five taken as the second or third quarterback ended up having a fulfilling NFL career (Harrington, Smith, Pastorini, Phipps).
What does this mean for the Cleveland Browns in 2016
NFL teams are better than you think about selecting quarterbacks with the No. 1 overall pick. Sure, the Los Angeles Rams could make a mistake and allow the best quarterback to slip past them. They might take the new JaMarcus Russell. But, disallowing for the biggest draft bust selection of all-time, the odds are well in their favor of picking a quarterback who will have a lengthy and decent NFL career.
After initial rumors indicated Carson Wentz, the NFL rumor mill seems to be in agreement on Friday that the Rams are leaning towards taking Jared Goff with that first overall pick, which makes sense because Goff has been the better quarterback all along.
The Browns, on the other hand, are left to decipher whether the quarterback that drops to them is worth the second overall selection. If not, then the choice will be between trading down for a bounty of picks or having their pick of the best non-quarterback draft prospect. It is not the choice the Browns hoped to have, but, as these lists demonstrate, when there is a quarterback worthy of taking first overall, NFL teams tend to take them.
135 Comments
and because of this the rams are now only a QB away … they play strong defense & have maybe the best RB in the nfl.
DAL or SD. Dropping behind Newsome would be a mistake. The one guy who likes to see these QB’s go early is Ozzie. He is sitting there waiting for Jack.
Not sure how “deferential” Newton and Russell are to opposing defenses.
Decent, yes. Elite, no. This is why you don’t trade down. Way too many trade down parlays.
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Hmm.. if only the NFL has a mandatory drug rehab program that all college players need to go through in order to play in the NFL. Otherwise, I don’t see any major weaknesses that can’t be fixed over time.
Goff? Cosell had Goff rated above Winston and Mariota as prospects, I haven’t heard him say this about Wentz. Mayock made a comparison, but it was basically because they were both big guys.
Trade down with DAL for their No 2.
If you’re feeling lonely and desperate for upticks, you can always say “trade Joe Thomas” and I’ll come running. Like a bridge over troubled water…
Wentz. He compared him on Tucker’s podcast, and he has a post on yahoo too I believe.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-draft-preview–carson-wentz-s-valid-andrew-luck-comp-152623472.html
you know….on second thought: This guy played 9 seasons (113 games out of 233 total) with Tampa Bay and Cleveland, yet he STILL threw 275 TD’s. what the hell – put him in!!
That’s a pretty weak comparison. Similar to Mayock saying he was like Luck because of the size. He’s saying Wentz got a 4.0 so it’s like Luck. However performance on the field, not really close. Ability to read defenses and process quickly, not even close. Level of competition, not even close. Effect on his team’s success, not even close. This is a careless comparison because it’s soundbite worthy and not reality worthy.
define “close.”
“Let’s see. It says here . . . ‘long snapper.'”
No, but I have Sausage. LoL!!!
Place it on Lucky Dan…
Say what you will about the tenets of National Socialism, dude, at least it’s an ethos.
I think elite is top 5 ranked. Wilson and Newton this past season were both top 5 so your point is correct by P.F.F. standards. My point was more that so far they have had a strong running attacks and have not “done with out it”. Alex Smith was 22nd ranked by P.F.F. He is more of they type of QB the Browns could get by with. I think most fans would rank Rogers, Brady and Brees higher because they do not need a running game for success.
If you look at the Super Bowl QB lists. Many many more have made it to game once than multiple times. It’s almost a lock if a QB makes it twice they are a HOF’er. Even Rogers only once. It’s so hard to get that lightning in a bottle year that you cannot discount the non elite guy’s that made it. It’s a team game. I think Denver was so good last year without great QB play that any top 15 QB would have won. We are so focused on the one position when the team is much more important. I would bet that the Browns management see things closer to this and passes at #2 to get more picks.
That is a really awesome pic. Those tubes had to generate some serious heat.
And Bette Davis eyes.
We must be reading two different articles. He gives numerous examples of the comparison, Athletic, runner, great poise, compact thrower, drives the ball when he needs to, pro reads and progressions…..
He also says, as he done with every QB prospect he evaluates, it always difficult to translate success in the NFL. But Wentz is his No 1 prospect this year.
Cam Newton IS a running game 🙂
I do agree on getting more picks now that Goff is likely gone. If you aren’t getting that “top” guy, then there is a whole lot of schlub at QB. If you think you can attain the game-changer, then you have to pick QB. If not, then build the rest of the roster.
while being color-blind
yeah, looked afterwards and see that many are projecting 2nd round, which means he likely got the Da’Quan Bowers news. Again – poor kid.
I still think those creamsicle unis were awesome!
Joe Thomas can get a free cup of coffee or beer anywhere in Cleveland, I guarantee.
ahh yes, but if RGIII had worked out and been able to sustain his rookie year performance, all of those guys wouldt be equal to half of what RGIII was worth to the Skins. Thats the rub. If the QB works, then you gotta do it. If the QB doesnt work, your screwed.
Also note, there are several arguments that get conflated when this gets discussed online. At least here its a bit easier to discuss because people are rational. If the team thinks there is a QB available who is “the guy” then they have to get him. If they dont think there is a QB available who is “the guy” then if they want their fruit basket o’ picks, thats fine too. BUT there seem to be some people out there who believe that even if there is a good, NFL starter-y type QB out there, that we are still better off with the amalgamation of picks. These people I disagree with. A good QB covers a LOT of holes. Thats just how the NFL has evolved. Sure, theres other ways to skin a cat, and you cant point to certain teams that have had success in other ways, but not consistently. A good QB makes everything else much, much easier. If your QB is, well, what we’ve had the past however long, then you’re swimming upstream, towing a canoe, and wearing a lead vest.
And Im not really arguing with you, I just kinda wanted to get that off my chest. I know you like Goff 9as I do). Im stuck on hold with Microsoft right ow, so I figured Id waste some time here.
It’s very confusing, because I don’t see those things often and when you do you need to consider that its a small amount of times out of a relatively tiny overall volume of experience. It’s like Wentz would do something that looked good in the passing game 4 times a game. Goff would do those things against better teams/players/coaches more times per game than Wentz even had passing attempts. I think that’s the issue, it’s consistency and volume combined with the subpar competition.
A good QB makes everything else much, much easier. If your QB is,
well, what we’ve had the past however long, then you’re swimming
upstream, towing a canoe, and wearing a lead vest.
Yes, yes, yes.
Great post! 100% agree. I don’t think it’s very close between the two and Goff is a NFL ready pick. Wentz reminds me of Bortles. Not a knock, just not a first overall pick guy. I wouldn’t be pissed if we move back a little and pick Lynch. He might fit our offense. If it’s not a QB in the 1st round then who should we value?
Been thinking about this drinking coffee this morning. I keep going back to the King MMQB interview with multiple scouts that agreed there is not much spread between 15 and 45 in this draft. Teams will get good players in the second round. If they trade down with SF and get Zeke at 7, 2017 first rounder, and the 37th pick this year it wouldn’t be a bad result. They would also have trade bait to move up one of those picks to the first if they have a guy they like.
And I think Goff will go first for just that reason. Rams need something now. But teams will covet Wentz and want to move up to get him.
King wrote a MMQB piece where scouts were saying the spread between 15 and 45 is minimal in this draft. If his knee is healthy, I would see him going right after the sure fire starters go. Someone will take a chance to get a top 5 talent. If his knee isn’t healthy he will drop to day 3 and it could be a plummet.
Which is why Jones has to be appealing to them.