Sashi Brown: “Don’t sleep on” Cody Kessler competing for starting nod at QB
May 2, 201612 Buckeyes selected in NFL Draft
May 2, 2016Grading a draft before the players have been to an OTA1 let alone been given the opportunity to demonstrate their abilities in games is largely panned as ridiculous. In fact, it is difficult to even judge rookies who may initially struggle on the field. 2015 draftees Cameron Erving and Danny Shelton may continue to not live up to first-round expectations and join the ever-growing list of Cleveland Browns draft busts, or they might use their rookie season as lessons learned to turn their careers into successes. However, grading a draft is also a pertinent task as it helps categorize opinions and debate that has been a big piece of leading into the NFL draft.
At the very least, these grades provide some fodder for those who may wish to mock my abilities to prognosticate on prospects leading up to the 2017 draft just as you can mock my abilities from the 2015 version of this article.2
As grading a draft is almost purely qualitative, the importance is in acknowledging that it is opinion and creating categories to separate the different opinions. Here, the grades are separated into four headings:
Filling needs: Did the Browns fill the needs that were identified before the draft?
Selecting the BPA: Did the Browns take the best player available according to general consensus?
Intelligent trading: Did the Browns make smart trades?3
Bode biased view: Did the Browns take players that I personally like and avoid the ones I did not like?
2016 Cleveland Browns Draft Picks
1st: WR Corey Coleman
2nd: EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
3rd: DL Carl Nassib, OT Shon Coleman, QB Cody Kessler
4th: LB Joe Schobert, WR Ricardo Louis, S Derrick Kindred, TE Seth DeValve
5th: WR Jordan Payton, OT Spencer Drango, WR Rishard Higgins, CB Trey Caldwell
7th: LB Scooby Wright III
Filling needs:
Given that the three-win Browns allowed a starting right tackle (Mitchell Schwartz), wide receiver (Travis Benjamin), center (Alex Mack), linebacker (Craig Robertson), linebacker (Karlos Dansby), and free safety (Tashaun Gipson) all leave the team while only replacing Dansby with a starting level free agent, the Browns could argue needs at most every position.4
First three rounds: WR, Edge, DE, OT, QB
Last four rounds: LB, WR, S, TE, WR, OT, WR, CB, LB5
Well, one way to fill needs on a team desperate for starting quality as well as depth is to tie the modern day record for most draft picks selected with 14 (1997 Miami Dolphins), including five selections in the first three rounds.
Any draft pick outside of the top three rounds has less than a 50 percent success rate, so any Day 3 NFL pick is considered depth only. Those late picks aside, it does not appear that the Browns drafted a player to satisfy their need at safety or running back.
They also neglected to draft a kicker, which will force them to rely on the OK Travis Coons to strengthen his leg. However, the Browns did fill needs at wide receiver (Corey Coleman), outside linebacker (Emmanuel Ogbah), defensive end (Carl Nassib), right tackle (Shon Coleman), and a developmental quarterback (Cody Kessler).
With two of those players needed starters and drafted in the third round, there is added risk. But, given the dire need for talent on the roster, the Browns did a great job accumulating draft picks for depth and targeting key positions early in the draft to hopefully infuse new talent into the starting lineup, while also bolstering top selections for the future.
Oh, and drafting four wide receivers to a group desperate for playmaking ability was an ambitious move. After cutting the drafted Vince Mayle in his rookie training camp, Sashi Brown can go to these players and tell them to show out or don’t bother showing up. That’s right, tryouts:
Need Grade: A+
Selecting the BPA:
Steal = Ranked much better than slot taken
Wash = Ranked about where taken
Reach = Ranked much worse than slot taken
Please remember, these grades are based on a general consensus for the player and where they were taken.
Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor (Round 1, Pick 15) : WASH. Depending on the analyst, Coleman, Doctson, or Treadwell was the best wide receiver in this draft class with Will Fuller and Michael Thomas not all that far behind them. Only Thomas did not go in the first round and Pick 15 doesn’t seem a bad place for the first one to go. The more analytical based lists did have Coleman ranked first, which jives with the current Browns front office.
Emmanuel Ogbah, Edge, Oklahoma State (Round 2, Pick 1) : WASH. While many fans might have wanted the Browns to take a huge gamble on Myles Jack or perhaps Jaylon Smith (who went two picks later to the Dallas Cowboys), the team stuck to their guns and drafted a pass rusher who was considered a late-first or early-second round candidate.
Carl Nassib, DE, Penn State (Round 3, Pick 2) : Slight Reach. Industry experts noted his big final year, but with the caveat that he did much on pure motor rather than relying on sound technique. He has incredible upside even being a fifth year senior, but most had him going in the fourth round.
Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn (Round 3, Pick 13) : Slight steal. The second Coleman selected by the Browns had a second round grade by most, but being in remission from leukemia might have put a slight damper on his actual NFL draft positioning.
Cody Kessler, QB, USC (Round 3, Pick 31) : Reach. As usual with quarterback selections, the industry was all over the map. Some loved his experience and accuracy, others noted his smaller size with limited upside. Overall, he would have been considered drafted at least a round early here.
Grouping the late round picks by round as once it is past Round 3, the grading on draft picks can vary wildly.
Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin (Round 4, Pick 1)
Ricardo Louis, WR, Auburn (Round 4, Pick 16)
Derrick Kindred, FS, TCU (Round 4, Pick 31)
Seth Devalve, TE, Princeton (Round 4, Pick 40)Â
Slight reach. For each of the picks above, a Round 4 selection does not seem off the mark. That is, except for Seth Devalve who was seen only as a late-round prospect by most all.
Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA (Round 5, Pick 15)
Spencer Drango, OG, Baylor (Round 5, Pick 31)Â
Rashard “Hollywood” Higgins, WR, Colorado State (Round 5, Pick 35)
Trey Caldwell, CB, La-Monroe (Round 5, Pick 36)
Slight steal. Three of these picks were expected to be in the fifth round range. However, Higgins was rated higher by most analysts even though the 2014 Biletnikoff Award finalist took a small step back with a new quarterback and offense in 2015.
Scooby Wright III, LB, Arizona (Round 7, Pick 29) : STEAL! In 2014, won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, Rotary Lombardi Award and Chuck Bednarik Award, which allowed most to rank him as a fourth round prospect despite his size and athletic limitations along with injuries to both his meniscus and right foot.
Final Tally:
3 Steals
2 Washes
3 Reaches
Intelligent trading:
Well, this category is fun in a year when the Browns traded their first round pick not once, but twice to move from the number two overall pick to selection 15. However, if I go through analyzing every single trade thereafter, you will be quite bored, so note that I looked at each for value but am highlighting the Day 1 trades as those are obviously much more important. This section will analyze the value of the picks without looking at the players available or the ones chosen with those picks (as those are pretty much covered in the other categories).
Philadelphia Eagles Trade
Eagles get: Round 1 – Pick 2, 2017 – Round 4
Browns get: Round 1 – Pick 8, Round 3 – Pick 77, Round 4 – Pick 100, 2017 – Round 1, 2018 – Round 2
Last year, I had to do all of the math myself, but FiveThirtyEight contributor Chase Stewart created a calculator at footballperspective.com to do the math for me.6
Based soley on the 2016 NFL Draft picks, the Browns would have won this trade. Then, add in the future picks and the Browns almost double the value of the Eagles by these calculations. Even accounting for any type of discount on the picks the Browns will have to wait on for one or two years, there is little question that the Eagles gave the Browns fantastic value in order to obtain what they hope was a franchise quarterback in Carson Wentz.
WIN BIG
Tennessee Titans Trade
Titans get: Round 1 – Pick 8, Round 6 – Pick 176
Browns get: Round 1 – Pick 15, Round 3 – Pick 76, 2017 – Round 2
Stewart made this one even easier as he already did the math on this trade.
Based on my marginal value chart, the Browns win the trade … even without considering the second-round pick in 2017! The 76th pick is a valuable one — more valuable than the difference between the eighth and 15th picks. If we value the 2017 second-round pick as equivalent to the 48th pick in this year’s draft, the Browns received a whopping 148 cents on the dollar for this trade.
BIG WIN
Other trades
Panthers get: Round 3 – Pick 77, Round 5 – Pick 141
Browns get: Round 3 – Pick 93, Round 4 – Pick 129, Round 5 – Pick 168
Raiders get: Round 4 – Pick 100
Browns get: Round 4 – Pick 114, Round 5 – Pick 154
Dolphins get: Round 7 – Pick 223
Browns get: CB Jamar Taylor, Round 7 – Pick 250
Even Trades
Trade Grade: A
Bode biased view:
This category throws out what anybody else thinks. These are my views on each player in the draft and the strategy of picking them in the spot.
Love : Shon Coleman, Derrick Kindred, Scooby Wright III
Like: Corey Coleman, Emmanuel Ogbah, Cody Kessler, Rishard Higgins, Joe Schobert
Mixed Feelings : Carl Nassib, Jordan Payton
Didn’t Like : Ricardo Louis, Seth DeValve
Didn’t care one way or another : Trey Caldwell, Spencer Drango
Corey Coleman is an explosive athlete on a team desperately needing a playermaker. I wanted playmakers, the Browns delivered with one.
Emmanuel Ogbah is a strong edge rusher who can handle the SOLB, while Nate Orchard locks up the WOLB.7 Ogbah was a leader both on the field and off the field for the Cowboys as can be seen in his Player’s Tribune post.
Carl Nassib has some great potential, but it is going to be a challenge for him to compete for a starting spot as a 3-4 defensive end. He’s got the size to build upon, but I expect he’ll get pushed around a bit his rookie season and struggle.
Shon Coleman has a great background story overcoming leukemia to become a top-line starter at Auburn, and I’m a sucker for a good narrative. Even more, he plays with the aggression that I covet in an offensive lineman.
Cody Kessler is limited due to his size, but he should be a quality backup and spot-starter who already has a ton of experience (and success) in a pro-style system. WFNY will have more on Kessler this week, but it is worth noting he overcame a ton of adversity at USC. Twice his coach was fired midseason, once a coach threw a tantrum and quit before a bowl game. Kessler never complained, did his job, deflected all praise to Juju and rest of team, and took on all blame on his own shoulders. He is a leader of men.
Joe Schobert should be a quality depth addition to the SILB spot in Horton’s 3-4 behind Demario Davis. That is enough for a fourth round pick.
Ricardo Louis reminds me of Greg Little with is running back build and inability to catch simple passes, but, even worse, he pulled a Travis Wilson by declaring himself the best wide receiver in this class. Yuck.
Derrick Kindred is a tough player who played through a collarbone injury in 2015. He’s the type of guy who just seems to always be in on every big play to be made (seemed to be a focus of the Browns in this draft is guys like that).
He’s Matthew Dellavedova in pads.
Jordan Payton is the Brian Hartline sub. He has sure hands, but won’t wow anybody. Nothing wrong with this type of wide receiver, but he’s going to have a tough time standing out in a group where there might not be enough rosters spots for all of them in September.
Spencer Drango is coming from a Baylor offense where the blocking duties are completely different in regards to footwork and usage than he’ll have in the NFL. It’s a tough transition, but he was a late pick.
Rashard Higgins is a baller. No other way to say it. He is too sure of himself, but, more often than not, he has backed up his exuberant confidence with plays on the field. I was shocked he was still available as late as we got him.
Trey Caldwell is a small cornerback who will probably only need to be relegated to special teams duty his rookie season. Late in the draft, that is fine, but I’m not going to expect anything more.
Scooby Wright III should become a quick fan-favorite. Any player with limited athletic ability yet consistently showed up on the national radar due to a high-revving motor is welcome on any team for which I root. He’s Matthew Dellavedova in pads.
Bode Biased View Grade = A-
Grade Recap
Need Grade = A+
BPA Grade = B-
Intelligent Trading Grade = A
Bode Biased View Grade = A-
The Cleveland Browns executed an overall strategy that saw adding quantity both to the roster and to their future pick collection. They added a ton of competition to a position of dire need (WR) and bolstered several areas with depth. Development will be a key component as well as stability, but the team did well on the weekend of the 2016 NFL Draft.
- Organized Team Activities [↩]
- And yes, I still am a Danny Boy who believes in Shelton. [↩]
- Updating the chart this year to the one statistically proven to be more accurate. [↩]
- Depending upon your view of Robert Griffin III as a long-term starting quarterback. [↩]
- And a veteran CB flier added from the Miami Dolphins. [↩]
- Yes, he specifically designed it for me, I think. [↩]
- S = Strong, W = Weak [↩]
100 Comments
Well . . .
Also worth noting that he had surgery on his feet in 2014 and 2015. It clearly affected his on-field performance in 2014 as he had to take a medical red-shirt. I guess it’s possible that he wasn’t at full speed all season in 2015 which might explain the tremendous pro-day and less impressive game tape.
When a 4th round draft pick lasts four years in the NFL and you consider that “not working out” then you know you have a great football family.
Oh, sure. Not knocking; just answering the question. (FWIW, I wouldn’t have turned down a 4-year NFL career!)
Seeing how teams can’t predict which QBs will end up being starters, I don’t think we drafted one with foreknowledge that he’ll be a backup.
That said, the guy seems to be a high-floor prospect. If he ends up being a better, cheaper option than Shaw, Davis, and McCown for four seasons, I’ll be okay with it. That’s not a bad downside.
hope you’re right. obv.
🙂
If we were having cap issues I’d consider praising the cheapness (but I don’t know what a world of cap-space hell looks like so it is speculation on my part). But we aren’t and haven’t had cap issues for a decade so it seems kind of a wasted pick if he is not going to be developed into a potential starter.
the brass saw something in him to take him as early as they did … time will tell.
And let’s applaud some of the guys they didn’t pick. It doesn’t appear that they took any injury risks, divas, thugs, or knuckleheads. And they didn’t take Connor Cook. Their emphasis on character should boost their overall grade at least a half a letter.
I’m so late to this thread that my comment will be buried beneath a brazzilion gifs, but whatevs:
– The easiest part was the trades. Easy for our cool and calm pointyheads to exploit the anxieties of other teams desperate for The Guy. A++ there.
– When you have the overall #2 and 32 and desperate to escape years of bottom feeding, you need to get impact players. You won’t compete in this division for a playoff spot without them. Don’t get excited about using a series of trades to turn #2 into roster depth – you can get depth from a brazillion places. You need to turn these draft spots into as many excellent players as you can, and if excellence is gone at 8 or 15 you don’t trade. The Dallas Cowboys didn’t make this stuff the template by turning Hershel Walker into
“roster depth.”
– I will judge this draft by how many of this draft’s players are excellent, not “he could start for a lot of teams,” and not “that’s an improvement.” Because next year’s draft is not for 12 months and if no ’16 draftees excel what it tells us is that when it comes to the most important front office job – the evaluation of college talent – the toes of our adorable FO newbies haven’t yet touched the bottom of the pool. And might not next year either.
Draft grades are stupid now. But by early next season these picks will expose the HBT. Sure, players improve with experience, but excellent football players are usually identifiable immediately.
What if he ends up being a better backup than those guys? Given our history of needing backup QBs, I think that counts too.
Except about Ricardo and DeValve, of course. Hope I’m wrong there, right?
Ricardo called himself “the best WR in the draft” and Higgins goes by the “Hollywood” moniker. But, tough sledding if you attempt to eliminate all diva WRs from your scouting list.
Not taking Cook or Hackenberg was a big win in my book as well.
Is it “brazzilion,” or “brazillion”? Or are those two separate integers?
You know I’ll dig through as many GIFs as necessary to find your comment Harv.
Good points that I agree with except the “But by early next season these picks will expose the HBT” — that is a pretty harsh expectancy on any rookie class. Thomas had early struggles, Mack had early struggles, Haden had early struggles, and those are some of the best we have seen. It’ll definitely help to see a couple “wow” moments from Corey Coleman though.
brazzilion is the Real number interpretation of the integer brazillion.
That you cross-checked the fake word for consistency almost made me cry. With happiness. Love you, nerd club brother.
Thomas did not. Mack struggled in camp, but by year’s end was praised for a great rookie year. Corners I always forgive.
The percentages are still in our favor.
Analytics!
Just want to make sure I can wax eloquent on the topic.
Get it? Wax . . .
I read that Higgins’ coach gave him that name, so it wasn’t Higgins’ idea. And calling yourself the best isn’t necessarily diva-esque (although we did draft a guy a few years ago who said the same thing and who never panned out). But we shall see what we shall see.
Mack & Haden struggled early, excelled late.
Frye did him no favors, but my memory tells me he was giving up pressure against Pitt his first week and people were loud about it (back in the Thomas vs Peterson days). Cannot remember well enough how his rookie season went but I do remember that game but being happy with him by the end of the year.
Given our history we will use all five qbs haha
Thomas NFL’s Rookie of the Month, November 2007. And I’m harsh? 🙂
Haha. Yes, but you said early in the season. My main point was early even our best have had struggles. By the end of their rookie years, the best players we have had have thrived. Just saying to move that evaluation point to later in the year 🙂
look, I’ll make your point: Jerry Rice dropped a bucket of passes his rookie year. But his teammates were buzzing about him in camp (NBA analogy: same happened to Kevin Johnson with Cavs 2 decades ago). Here’s my point: if Coleman and Ogbah are the real deal we’ll see it in camp and exhibition season, before opponents are playing full intensity. They’ll jump out physically. If they don’t, uh oh.
I second the vote of confidence on Nassib. Was excited by this pick.
I don’t think he was picked with backup in mind. You don’t use a 3rd rounder on that. But…. I wouldn’t be surprised if our front office considered his high ceiling and said, “even if he doesn’t develop like we want, he’s a guy who can still be on the roster in four years”.
As for cap hell, I don’t think that matters. Whatever your industry, it’s always a good thing to pay less for comparable or better performance. And as mgbode mentioned, adding a reliable backup might mean flipping McCown in the not too distant future for some picks.
https://
vine.co/v/iPIjUhjLLKQ
There are certainly a few guys in the draft that i know very little if anything about.
I love the Scooby, Ogbah, and the second Coleman pick.
I really like the Nassib and Schobert picks, as well as the Payton pick.
I have mixed feelings about Coleman #1
I didn’t like the Kessler pick due to it’s round. I would be ok in round 5 with him – and so would every other NFL GM it seems.
I don’t have any feelings at all on the other ones.
Pharoh Cooper was a guy i really wanted at that slot. I pretty much agree with what you said, except I am resolute in my belief that Coleman #1 will not be as good as Treadwell.
hundy.
Pennington was every bit as good as Big Ben. Less of an arm, but more of everything else. A truly great leader.
well, if there’s ever a way to guarantee the #1 pick in 2017, it’s to line up without a safety. so there’s always that.
Nassib > Mingo
“We currently have an entire stable of backup QBs. We have for years”
To be honest, it’s been more like an animal rendering plant full of QB’s
Pennington is a good comparison I hadn’t considered yet. 3rd rounder done good as well. Your comment about “more of everything else” is what I believe Jackson sees and what I’ve been trying to say about Kessler vs. the rest of this class all along. Will be using that quote on other sites if I don’t get tired of talkng myself blue about him.
The only size that really counts is what is in between the ears and in the gut. Been proven more often than not in the NFL going all the way back to Frank Ryan.
Add Bart Starr, Bill Nelsen, Fran Tarkenton, John Hadl, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Brian Sipe, Steve Bartkowski, plus at least 5 others that are slipping my mind. It can be done again and will be done again. Hopefully we found ours again. Through Browns history and with their best teams we’ve never had the best QB, exception being Otto, in the league. Even Bernie was an odd bird.
If Kiper was a GM, his teams would be perennial losers.
If Hue is the QB whisperer, Horton is the DB whisperer. Horton has uncovered d-backfield gems everywhere he’s been.
The surgeries were not from football related injuries. Something didn’t set right in his feet after he quit growing. The surgeries are said to be purely corrective. This could explain why his hard production numbers (rec., yds., td’s) were low and why his pro day belies his game tape. The corrective surgeries happened between his senior campaign and pro days and are said to be 100% successful.
Casey Matthews has been a back up/ PS squad RT so far, I believe.
If any receiver (or player) doesn’t think he can be the best at what he does, he don’t even make it to a D2 college. It wouldn’t be hard for anyone to call themselves “Hollywood” in Ft. Collins, Colorado. Might only have to brush your teeth.
Just kidding, current and former Coloradians ; ).
The greatest rebuilding efforts of the last 40 years (Pittsburgh, Minnesota, San Francisco, Cleveland, Green Bay, Dallas, Indianapolis, Arizona, Seattle, New Orleans) all started from scratch and built their benches up prior to taking the BPA’s for the most part. This team had to be torn down completely. 14-41 in the last 3 years with 5-6 pro bowl caliber starters and a handful of above average players was not acceptable. Bad QB play was not the only thing done poorly.
I want all of our players to have the self-confidence to believe they can become the best WR, but the humility to not say it out loud to the press.
notice the eras of the QBs you mention. game has changed. it doesn’t mean it cannot be done, but it needs to be schemed to be done correctly now. just how it is.
Just trying to point out that it has been done over and over regardless of era.
Unfortunately, humility is a lost art with kids nowadays.
Think Kessler was the guy they wanted that wouldn’t threaten Hue’s vision of resurrecting RG3’s career in 2016 and could be an insurance policy against his failure for 2017.
I also suspect that they were setting up for the possibility that McCown will be dealt as soon as there is an injury elsewhere in NFL.