Ohio State football over-under regular season wins set at 8.5
May 24, 2016Movie scenes that best capture the Raptors’ hope: While We’re Waiting…
May 25, 2016Jake Arrieta. Stephen Strasburg. Josh Tomlin. Those are the only qualified pitchers remaining in MLB whose teams have won every game they have started in 2016. Chris Sale was expected to be the third name remaining after the Tuesday night matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians.Β Instead, the Tribe made quick work of Sale while Tomlin worked deep into the game as the Indians (24-20) won easily over the White Sox (27-20), 6-2.
He’s a Cowboy
There are so many reasons to doubt Josh Tomlin. His fastball only sits at 90 miles per hour leading to a low strikeout rate. He gives up a home run each game1. His 3.35 ERA is good but not dominant. His 4.36 FIP is not good.Β His 0.5 WAR is tied for 66th among MLB starting pitchers.Β The one statistic wherein he is near the top of the leaderboard is the often-chided Pitcher Win column.
Josh Tomlin’sΒ value from a modern sabermetric world is considered meager, and he should be replaceable.Β The man himself, however,Β is the type of refreshing pitcher who demonstrates how far human understanding of the statistical significance there is still to be achieved. At some point, there is more than a measure of good fortune indicating why all eight of his starts provided an Indians win. At some point, the eight wins in 10 starts in 2015 also come into play. The advanced peripheral statistics have provided MLB with better tools than ever before about predicting future behavior by taking out the factors that are commonly luck.
But there are outliers, and Tomlin appears to be one. Throwing first-pitch strikes, limiting hard contact, and not giving away free passes (walks) are among the things Tomlin does to put himself in that strange, undefineable space.
There is value in starting pitcher wins, including a team’s record when a pitcher pitches. Yes, there is an element of luck regarding the opponent, opposing pitcher, team’s offense, defense, and many more elements. However, over a longer sample size, having a pitcher with the ability to get the job done (whatever it might mean on that particular night) has great value. Winning baseball games is still the goal of each team.
https://vine.co/v/i9i1KOnK30A
On Tuesday, Tomlin threw 24 first-pitch strikes out of the 29 batters he faced. Given that batters had an average of .196 against Tomlin with a .211 OBP when faced with an 0-1 count, working ahead has done him well. Of course, hitters are only hitting for a .229 average when they attempt to take away the advantage by swinging at the first pitch. Brett Lawrie was the only White Sox hitter to attempt the approach. He had a double in the fourth inning to drive in Jose Abreu, but he meekly grounded out on a first-pitch swing in the seventh.
Tomlin simply cruised through the game. He got his customary solo home run over early by having Adam Eaton lead off the bottom of the first with a 400-foot shot.Β Abreu scored in the fourth. But over a span from the fourth-through-eighth innings, he retired 12 straight hitters. He worked quickly and efficiently, which allowed him to pitch eight innings on just 99 pitches.
He was Tomlinesque.
Runs on Sale, so Indians stock up
Tuesday’s game was supposed to include a dramatic duel between two pitchers, one of which was a bit over-matched. However, instead of a classic Western feature film, the Indians massacre of Sale appeared to be more in the Tarantino Western genre.
Sale gave up six earned runs in just three and a third innings pitched. The Tribe put up sevent hits, received four walks, and forced Sale to throw 89 pitches during his abbreviated time on the mound. Sure, Sale struck out seven batters, but those are the outs that happen when a team is swinging as hard as the Indians were against Sale.
https://vine.co/v/i9i5PrE6XvH
The runs were the most Sale has given up since a September game of last year. The walks were the most Sale has awarded since August of 2013. In 2016, Sale has given up nine earned runs in 61.1 innings pitched to the rest of MLB. Against the Indians, he has also allowed nine earned runs, but in just 10.1 innings pitched.
Some games are just falling your way
Maybe the game goes another way if two specific plays go differently. What happens if Austin Jackson reels in the Mike Napoli line drive that opened up the floodgates? And, what happens if Juan Uribe isn’t a boss? Oh, you didn’t know he was a boss? Well, then just watch him calmly tag out Lawrie before doing a spinning throw to catch Avisail Garcia nappinig off of first base.
https://vine.co/v/i9iJtluFUg5
Just your run-of-the-mill 6-5-3 double play.
Mike Napoli had never recorded a triple and a stolen base in the same game until Tuesday. Given that he had only 10 triples and 34 stolen bases (with 21 caught stealing) in his twelve year MLB career over 1158 games, it is not surprising he had not accomplished the feat. However, seeing a 34-year-oldΒ catcher turnedΒ designated hitter/first baseman who is not exactly known for his speed pull it off with a belly flop (on the triple) and only millimeters to spare (on the stolen base) was quite fun to watch.
https://vine.co/v/i9epbgrYYuP
On the flip side, Jackson’s night didn’t go as well. Not only did his miss in center field break the game open for the Indians with Napoli’s triple, but A-Jax had a chance to finish on a positive note when he roped a line drive into center field in the eighth inning. There came a charging Rajai Davis with his minus-7 DRS2Β for 2016. But this time, Davis made the diving, somersaulting catch, and the ball somehow stayed within the lip of the webbing. Some days, man. Some days.
https://vine.co/v/i9i1jgjE9EM
Oh, and for the record: The Indians offense now has scored four or more runs in eight of the last 10 games, while reaching base double-digits (hits plus walks) in 13 of the last 15 games where they have recorded 54 extra base hits (3.6 per game). So, yeah, the offense is carrying their weight.
41 Comments
Don’t forget Tomlin’s other special freakish stat line (from May 11th):
Tomlin (5-0) worked into the seventh inning and became the first Indians pitcher to win his first five outings since Justin Masterson in 2011. Heβs also been the one to get the Indians back on track, improving to 12-0 with a 2.82 ERA following a Cleveland loss since the beginning of last season.
Some day he’ll get the attention and appreciation he deserves.
Well, Cody Anderson won the nightcap, so he couldn’t add to that one π
Thanks for adding it. And, I hope Anderson ribbed Tomlin for only getting 12 batters out in a row the game after Cody recorded 13 straight outs.
I feel bad for Rajai Davis in that he made a spectacular grab, but I cannot get enough of watching that Juan Uribe play. There are so many levels to what he does in that vine.
So we’re 2nd in runs scored a game, but average to below average in pretty much every other offensive category. (All that clutch hitting, I guess.) At the risk of sounding negative during a time of plenty, we could use a non-middle infielder, non-Santana bat to heat up.
Head above water as we wait for Brantley? It’s what I’d been hoping for I guess.
The kind of slide Napoli had into third base is what messed up Charboneau’s back. Kind of makes me sick to my stomach to see the legs raise like that!
If Lindor rather than Peralta replaced Omar, wonder if the town would have embraced him so warmly, or whether it would have been like a Jim Brown/Leroy Kelly dynamic where the great successor never quite gets the deserved traction with fans. Whatevs, it’s just a treat to get to watch two great shortstops within 15 years. Other than the one year of Matt Williams, we haven’t seen a great defensive third baseman since Buddy Bell.
He seemed OK on the slide later in the game, so avoided one there.
Fryman wasn’t great by the time we got him, but he was pretty good (thought he had won a Gold Glove with us, and yes, 2000 Glove Glove recipient -> only one in his career).
However, last year, Gio was fantastic at defense. Couldn’t hit a lick, but I loved his range (especially to his right).
A few games a year of John McDonald? All I got.
Son, we live in a world that has holes, and those holes have to be guarded by shortstops with gloves. Who’s gonna do it? You? Hector Luna? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Vizquel, and you curse the Indians. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Vizquel’s retirement, while tragic, probably saved runs. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves runs. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me in that hole, you need me in that hole.
A brilliant “A Few Good Men” riff there. π
Truth.
This is good. Real good. Some might say suspiciously good.
Describing Jhonny Peralta’s existence with the Indians as “grotesque and incomprehensible” seems unfairly vicious yet totally appropriate.
Fryman was really good, a fine tactician there, but there seemed to be so many guys around the league who actually quickened the pulse at third and he just wasn’t one of them. But I loved everything about the player: the devotion to craft, the ego-free demeanor, the bravery running into the stands and ultimately his giving guaranteed millions back when his young family and real life beckoned. Good player, good man.
Bahahaha! Very good.
You weren’t talking about the last couple years of Cabrera? My bad.
Lindor is the Jim Brown in this scenario though. He’s better than Omar.
And poor Peralta, Carlos Santana may be the only more unfairly maligned player to don an Indians uniform.
I can’t stop watching Napoli’s belly flop.
I giggity’ed at the last line.
yikes, Omar may be a hall of famer soon so it’s a tad early to claim Lindor will be better than that.
Sure, anything can happen, but Lindor’s first 143 games are better than any full season Vizquel put together.
And I loved Vizquel, but he’s not worthy of the Hall, and probably shouldn’t stay on the ballot after year one. He’s closer to Leroy Kelly, and Lindor just led the league in rushing and touchdowns at 21.
Peralta was a good defensive SS, but his hitting… my God I have never seen anyone hit into as many rally-killing GIDPs in my life. I just checked and it was 26 in 2008 alone. I mean c’mon that’s 16% of the season!
If Omar makes it into the Hall, I’ll eat my hat.
This is kind of my point. Peralta put up +11 Rbat: 11 runs above average, in his 923 games in an Indians uniform. Just a tick above league average with the bat at the premium defensive position. He was not without his flaws, but he was a league average player in his time here. There’s no bobbleheads days coming down the road to commemorate his time here, but he was a decent player.
Peralta, like Santana, fell victim to a great first impression. Jhonny set the bar at .292/.366/.520 in 2005 and never lived up to it. Under the circumstances, being decent became a massive disappointment. Totally unfair, but that’s human nature for you.
I think it was mostly timing. Coming off winning the Central, expectations were high in 2008 and Cliff Lee was killing it on the mound so Jhonny, Grady Sizemore (on his treadmill) and Travis Hafner ended up catching a lot of the fan frustration with the offense that year. Unfair? Definitely.
good for Josh … nobody was talking about him before the season started.
… and he probably will upstage all the supposed stars in this rotation. indians are lookin’ pretty good right now.
the Tigers are streakin’ & Miguel is gettin’ into a groove as well.
What was wrong with Peralta and Sizemore’s offense in 2008? The issues that year were injuries to Martinez and Hafner (and the god-awful bullpen) and we still ended up with an above average offense.
We finished third in the division on the outside looking into the post-season a year after taking the ALCS to the seventh game (dropping three in a row to end it). “Above average offense” was not the goal… our performance in that follow-up season led directly to the rebuild.
https://frinkiac.com/meme/S05E16/384333.jpg?b64lines=IE9PSCwgWU9VIEJST1VHSFQgTUUgQQogTkFDSE8gSEFUISBUSEFOS1MsIE5FRC4=
Clayman might have to slap you for that comment:
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2016/03/168693/
okay , he gets partial credit … this article was comparing him to anderson & being the 5th starter … not that Tomlin would surpass all the other heralded starters on this staff.
Peralta also regressed as PED testing evolved. Like a lot of players on that wave of Indians.
Wow. You must have very high standards. I have never sen a better defensive SS than Omar. Even though there are many better hitters who played the position, it is still primarily a defensive one. If Omar doesn’t get it they better take Ozzie Smith out.
It was done under the premise that Francona had stated earlier in Spring Training that Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, and Bauer were already given rotation spots. So, he was correct in that Tomlin was ahead of Anderson, it’s just that Cody pushed for that fifth spot so hard he bumped out Bauer (for a time).
Even if we assume they are equals defensively, Smith was 15 runs below average at rBat, rBaser, and rDP – batting and baserunning. Vizquel was 236 runs below average in the same areas. Smith was a much better offensive player, he just played in an era where run scoring was surpressed, and Vizquel played in an era where it was inflated. 20 wins worth of difference between the two on offense.
Peralta’s five best offensive seasons were 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2014. I’m not seeing where the regression is.
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very similar to my feelings about Peralta. When he first came up my impression, seeing not only all the hard contact but also his ease in the batter’s box, was that this guy was ticketed for long-term excellence, like Victor. By the time he left that ease looked like a lackadaisical failure to adjust or care after they gave him his first multi-year. Like my detesting Casey Blake, so much of my attitude was subjective. But here he still is, still producing enough that a smart org like the Cardinals threw $53M at him.