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May 9, 2016Cavs Sweep, Captain America Civil War and more – WFNY Podcast No. 498
May 9, 2016The Cleveland Indians continued their streak of below .500 Aprils under Terry Francona with a disappointing 10-12 start bleeding into the first day of May having been swept by the Philadelphia Phillies. The Tribe has gone 5-1 since that sweep though to pull themselves back into second place in the brutal AL Central division and sixth overall in the American League. Despite these humble beginnings, the statistical modeling that tracks MLB teams projected records and odds of making it to the postseason have continued to be bullish on the Indians through both the winning and losing streaks.
WFNY’s Andrew Clayman put it best when he posted how the Tribe is currently valued through the eyes of these statistical models.
The #Indians might be the tomboy with glasses and a ponytail, but Analytics sees a prom queen, dammit. https://t.co/b9BN4CynJo
— Andrew Clayman (@ClaymanWFNY) May 6, 2016
However, the traditional community of power rankers continues to track much more closely to actual record. On Monday, USA TODAY has the Indians ranked 13th overall (sixth in AL) up from 19th last week. Similar gains were seen at ESPN (12th overall, sixth in AL, up from 21st last week) and even from the sabermetric Jonah Keri at Sports Illustrated (11th overall, sixth in AL, up from 17th last week). Notice the AL ranking matching exactly the AL standings ranking for each power ranker.
Meanwhile, the models fluctuate much less and are much more kind to the Indians. The models see a 1-5 week to the Minnesota Twins and Phillies, but note how each of the losses was by a single run. Given the historical evidence that one-run losses tend to even out, and those losses do not factor in nearly as much as the wins do from a 5-1 week where the Indians were only pushed close to a loss in one of those victories (Sunday’s 5-4 win with Josh Tomlin on the mound). Depending on the model, many different areas of the team’s peripheral statistics are researched and weighted according to how similar past MLB teams have performed.
FiveThirtyEight sees the Indians as the seventh best MLB team (third best in AL) according to their metrics. One of the AL teams ahead of them are the 16-17 Toronto Blue Jays. But these power rankings do gain some balance by seeing the Tribe as only having a 48 percent chance of reaching the postseason and having a four percent chance of winning the World Series. So the end game projections still see the Indians as having a similar profile to the Texas Rangers (18-14 record but ranked 13th in their power ranks).
Baseball Prospectus is far more in love with the Tribe. Their 72.8 percent odds of reaching the postseason are good for second in the AL, but the 10.1 percent odds on winning the World Series are what truly shows the appreciation for the Indians peripheral measures. Only the 24-6 Chicago Cubs are given better odds of bringing home the 2016 World Series trophy.
With traditional metrics lazily following week-to-week records, while the statistical models perhaps discounting what has happened on the field of play too much, the truth is somewhere in the middle for the Indians chances at postseason glory. Not to mention the effect trades, injuries, and called up rookies might have on the 2016 MLB season.
But those are rational thoughts for another day. For a moment, allow yourself to gaze upon the Baseball Prospectus page and imagine a world where the Indians win the World Series the October after the Cleveland Cavaliers return victorious from the NBA Finals. Hey, we are due, right?
3 Comments
are you going to watch the Indians at Astros at the Juice Box?
Four hours away and we are in our Little League playoffs; so, sadly no. Poorly timed trip for the Indians in Houston (I usually do make the trek down there for it).
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