Eastern Conference Semis Game One
Cleveland Cavaliers (45-37, 4-2) vs
Boston Celtics (66-16, 4-3)
TD Banknorth Garden, Boston, MA
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
8:00 p.m. ET
TNT/WTAM
For the third straight year, the Cavaliers are in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Unlike last year, though, the Cavaliers are the underdogs on the road. Can the Cleveland fall back on their vast amount of playoff experience and playoff success to knock off the Celtics, or will Boston lean on their superior talent and run away with this series? It should be fun to watch, and we’re just excited to get this series tipped off. After a series in which we were all distracted by ridiculous freak show displays of pop culture distractions, name calling, and physical extra curiculars on the court, it will be nice to have a series where we can get back to just focusing on basketball.
Projected Starting Lineups (with playoff statistics)
Cleveland Cavaliers:
-G Delonte West (10.2 ppg, 5.0 apg, 1.17 spg, 13.88 PER)
-G Wally Szczerbiak (10.8 ppg, 1.5 apg, .345 3-pt%, 10.06 PER)
-F LeBron James (29.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 7.7 apg, 29.44 PER)
-F Ben Wallace (3.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.33 bpg, 12.36 PER)
-C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (14.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.83 bpg, 17.53 PER)
-Key reserves: Daniel Gibson (13.41 PER), Joe Smith (9.34 PER), Devin Brown (6.58 PER), Anderson Varejao (6.53 PER), Sasha Pavlovic
-Injuries: Eric Snow (Out)
Boston Celtics:
-G Rajon Rondo (11.6 ppg, 7.3 apg, 1.71 spg, 20.34 PER)
-G Ray Allen (16.1 ppg, 3.1 apg, .400 3-pt%, 14.95 PER)
-F Paul Pierce (18.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 4.7 apg, 19.31 PER)
-F Kevin Garnett (21.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.43 bpg, 24.88 PER)
-C Kendrick Perkins (7.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.71 bpg, 18.12 PER)
-Key reserves: James Posey (16.39 PER), Glen Davis (13.82 PER), Sam Cassell (13.64 PER), Leon Powe (11.72 PER), P.J. Brown (1.87 PER)
-Injuries: Scott Pollard (Out)
Team Efficiency Statistics
Cleveland Cavaliers:
-Off (95.5 ppg, 44.8 rpg, 23.0 apg, .431 FG%, .382 3pt%, Efficiency-105.3, Rank-8)
-Def (92.2 ppg, 37.3 rpg, 15.7 apg, .426 FG%, .305 3pt%, Efficiency-101.7, Rank-4)
Boston Celtics:
-Off (100.5 ppg, 42.0 rpg, 22.4 apg, .475 FG%, .381 3pt%, Efficiency-111.6, Rank-3)
-Def (90.3 ppg, 38.9 rpg, 18.8 apg, .419 FG%, .316 3pt%, Efficiency-97.5, Rank-2)
Game Notes
On paper, this is going to be a quick series. Boston has players with better efficiency ratings at 4 of the 5 starting positions. The efficiency rating of Boston’s bench players makes Cleveland’s bench look like a complete joke. Boston ranks better than Cleveland in Assist Ratio, Turnover Ratio, Offensive Rebound Rate, Effective FG Pct., True Shooting Pct., Offensive efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency. Boston is scoring more points per game than Cleveland, and allowing fewer than Cleveland is allowing.
So what can Cleveland do to win this series? For starters….rebound, rebound, rebound. Cleveland must take advantage of the one true thing that Cleveland does better than Boston. If they allow Boston to hang with them in the rebounding category, then Cleveland has no chance. The Cavaliers must limit the Celtics’ number of possessions and 2nd chance opportunities by controlling the glass. Secondly, Cleveland must do a better job taking care of the ball. The last time Cleveland played in Boston, they had just 16 assists and 15 turnovers. It was why Cleveland lost that game, and if that A/TO ratio doesn’t improve tonight, then it will be why Cleveland will lose this game as well. Boston’s pressure defense is suffocating at the point of the attack, and it will be interesting to keep on eye on Delonte West at the beginning of the game. How he handles getting into the offense against Boston’s defense could set the tone for the game.
Keep an eye on who LeBron is defending tonight, also. If he is on Pierce, look for the Celtics to move him around a lot to try to wear down LeBron. I would expect to see LeBron get some time defending Ray Allen in an attempt to give him a little bit more rest than when he’s guarding Pierce. When the Cavs have the ball, keep an eye on how Boston defends Ilgauskas. I think this will be a huge key to this series. Will Garnett defend Z to try to keep him from being effective outside, or will they use Perkins on him primarily to defend him in the paint? When Perkins is on Z, the Cavs may be able to get Z some good outside looks.
In the end, Boston is definitely the better team on paper. For the Cavaliers to win this game they must be focused and they must rely on Wally Szczerbiak and Daniel Gibson to be hitting open shots on the backside of Boston’s defensive rotation. If Wally and Daniel are off, it would seem rather unlikely that LeBron will beat Boston by himself. The Cavs lost the first 2 games of the Detroit series last year, but they cannot dig themselves a similar hole this year. Boston only lost 3 consecutive games once, and even that was on a west coast road trip. For Cleveland to win this series, they must find a way to steal one of these first 2 games in Boston, preferably tonight’s game.
Vegas Odds
Boston -9.5
Over/Under 183
From The Outside Looking In
Celtics Blog
Green Bandwagon
BostonsportZ
Red’s Army
Perkisabeast
