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March 8, 2014We’re less than a month away from opening day, the sun is shining, the ground is thawing, and the buzz for the Cleveland Indians continues to grow. The excitement for the Wahoos isn’t confined to Cleveland, where the team sold out the home opener in just 15 minutes, but nationally the hype for the Braves of the Cuyahoga is growing as well.
For the fourth time this spring, Grantland’s lead MLB writer Jonah Keri featured the Indians in one of his MLB previews, this time predicting the team wins more than the 80.5 games Las Vegas has set as their over/under.
Cleveland Indians: OVER 80.5 wins
That number looks … off, doesn’t it? The Indians surged to 92 wins last year behind one of the most powerful offenses in the league and a young, effective starting rotation. Very little has changed for the worse. While losing Ubaldo Jimenez’s impressive 2013 numbers will hurt, getting a full season from Official 2013 Grantland Crush Danny Salazar and a breakout campaign from fellow right-handed starter Corey Kluber could mitigate that loss. With none of Cleveland’s five projected starters older than 28, there’s upside across the board here.
If you’re looking for an X factor, though, consider something for which the typical projection systems and even Vegas likely won’t properly account: This season, Carlos Santana will no longer be Cleveland’s primary catcher. Whether you’re examining multiyear or single-year numbers, Santana consistently grades out as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And while analysts are just beginning to quantify the effects of pitch blocking and other defensive skills for catchers, the industry consensus has long been that Santana is a designated hitter who happens to wear a mask. Assuming the Tribe do the right thing by making Santana the everyday DH while handing primary backstop duties to Yan Gomes, who was one of the best receivers in the league last year according to the above metrics, it wouldn’t be a stretch to project something like a two- or three-win improvement based on that move alone. And that might even be understating it. If Gomes’s defensive skills are allowed to flourish over 120-plus starts, it could help push Cleveland’s young staff to elite status this season.
Combine all that with a balanced lineup that will get even better when top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor reaches the big leagues — and frees up the Indians to consider trading Asdrubal Cabrera to address whatever weaknesses might arise — and it’s really tough to imagine the Indians finishing below .500 … which is what would have to happen to lose this bet. This is my highest-confidence wager for 2014.
Keri’s optimism for the 2014 Tribe has been on display all spring, starting with mentioning Danny Salazar as a prime candidate for a breakout season.
Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians: Salazar’s inclusion shouldn’t be a surprise after last week’s offseason edition of The 30, in which I drooled over his filthy fastball-slider-changeup arsenal and the 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate he posted last season in his first 10 major league starts. He’s talented enough to make a Cy Young run, maybe even as soon as this year. And while individual talent is more important than teammate contributions, Carlos Santana’s move from catcher to third base could have a hugely positive impact on Salazar and the rest of Cleveland’s pitchers. Santana is an excellent hitter who could himself see a bump in production now that he’s freed from the rigors of catching, but he was a terrible receiver behind the plate last season. New starter Yan Gomes, conversely, gets high marks for pitch framing and other catching skills.
Hey, who knows: Between that defensive upgrade, the all-around youth on this 28-and-under rotation, and the sheer talent that Salazar, Corey Kluber, and others possess, a staffwide breakout might be imminent.
Keri’s crushing on Salazar took a break for a few days so Jason Kipnis could be given his due in “MLB 32-Day Warning: Jason Kipnis Is Ready to Take the Second-Base Belt“. In the article, Keri makes the case for Kipnis to take his throne as MLB’s best second baseman.
Over the past two years, 13 second basemen have batted 800 total times with a league-average or better OPS+. Among those, Kipnis ranks fourth in WAR, sixth in OPS+, first in stolen bases, and second in walks. He’s also the only player on the list born after 1985. Utley is on his way out, Matt Carpenter is moving to third base, and Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Ben Zobrist are all 30 or older at a position that isn’t kind to aging players.
Kipnis is already a top-flight second baseman. He’s also the only one in that tier whose best days are still to come.
After devoting 700 words to Kipnis, Keri went back to drooling over Salazar, this time in his fantasy baseball preview.
Looking for the steal of the season in your fantasy baseball draft? Stay far away from Salazar.
Why? In fantasy baseball, it’s all about value. And while there can certainly be overlap between real-life value and fantasy value, you don’t want to get stuck paying more when the former corrupts the latter. When a young player starts his career with big results, we slap sky-high projections on him almost immediately. That’s happened with Salazar, a 24-year-old flamethrower with three plus pitches who dazzled in his first stint in the big leagues. Salazar’s made only 10 MLB starts, but if a rival general manager approached Indians GM Chris Antonetti about him, that other GM would be laughed out of the room or asked to sacrifice 19 prospects and his firstborn child. Salazar’s late-2013 emergence means he’s also demanding a similar price in the fantasy realm, and it’s simply too much, too soon.
It’s been a long, frigid Cleveland winter. One that has been filled with front office upheavals, thoughts of tanking, and of course multiple stooges, opening day can’t come soon enough. Until then, enjoy the hype.
(Photo: Chuck Crow/The Plain Dealer)
31 Comments
There’s a lot in place to be excited about!
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4109/5055842023_426927d108_z.jpg
This is the most excited I have been about an upcoming Tribe season since 2008!
Just like ’08, I have a feeling the team will disappoint us all again.
Oh stop it Grantland I’m blushing
Ugh. My thoughts exactly. It’s like Keri is giving us a big Michael Corleone kiss on the lips.
yeah, I said that to properly temper expectations, but I do really mean it. we have plenty of guys who underperformed last year on offense to the point where it could/should mask the overperforming guys regressions. we have a ton of good youth on the team (younger than 30 but older than 25). and, we have a relatively deep stock of SP (compared to recent years – I’m still wary of all of them outside of Masterson, but we don’t know which unknown names will also pop up this season).
Last year feels more like a 2005 opening of a window rather than a 2008 closing of one, but we won’t know until they start playing the games.
You know, people act like 2008 was a ridiculous disaster. When you look back on it with some objectivity, we really weren’t that bad.
We won 81 games. And that’s after trading CC at the mid point. He put up 4.3 WAR for the Brewers. 89 games won the Central.
I think in ’07 we overachieved by a few games and in ’08 we underachieved.
Fangraphs war has us at 43.7 in ’07. 39.5 in ’08. CCs WAR puts ’08 at 43.8.
I actually trust Keri and take his endorsement to heart. The real question is how a sportswriter could really think the ’86 pitching staff (which was terrible) would get anything other than worse by adding a 42-year-old Steve Carlton and a 22-year-old unproven Greg Swindell.
it was the closing of the contention window. i think most people recognize the injuries that played into that season (we had 3 people play 140+ games and one of them was Garko). the trade of CC happened when we were 14 games under .500 and the season was lost.
Not disagreeing. Just pointing out that we were unlucky in ’08 and lucky in ’07. I think if fans were more a little more realistic going into ’08, they wouldn’t have been so upset by it all. Not that fans should be realistic…..
Keri’s just trying to get us to buy his new book about the Expos.
What are you talking about? With the stable of horses we had–Rich Yett,, Phil Neikro, Scott Bailes (sp?), Ernie freaking Camacho?! I might also be conflating staffs from another year. After all, it was a dark, dark time that all blends together.
Don’t forget the difference of Tito over Twitchy McGee (Wedge).
Jesus Aguilar.
Not really an unknown name, but he will have “something to say” before this Indians season is over.
And I mean it in a good way.
Karl Pagel.
I’m sorry, my brain tells me that there has been some sort of fundamental shift with Tito, but my diseased Cleveland sports soul keeps what year we last consecutive winning seasons. Y’know, the ol’ Cleveland shoe drop: we find out they’re still babying Salazer because of a “little” new elbow soreness, the devil returns the souls of Gomes and Kluber, Swisher and Bourn keep trending downward … I’d like to start the season right now and wash this neurosis away.
In 2008, if you look a the Indians Pythagorean W-L record, they actually should have finished 85-77
Cleveland doesn’t like Debbie Downers.
There was some thought that 2009 could have been a good year, maybe not completely logical thought, but some nonethless.
Victor, Hafner, and Westbrook were going to come back healthy. Carmona, Asdrubal, and Betancourt were due to bounce back from poor 2008 seasons. That Choo kid looked really good in the second half of 2008, and another good prospect, Huff, was right behind him. The defense was going to get better by shifting Peralta and Cabrera over. They gave out an 8 figure contract to stabilize the pen, the part of the team that had undermined any possible success in some previous years.
In 2009, Baseball Prospectus had the Indians projected to win the division, not that good with only 83 wins, but in first nonetheless. Instead, it seemed like everything that could go wrong did, except for Lee
I have a feeling Swisher and Bourne will bounce back this year. If the pitching delivers we are in for a fun season.
I’m not gambler, but isn’t the Vegas line set to encourage equal betting on both sides of the line? Could the number be low because of the national consensus that God hates Cleveland and Vegas doesn’t want the exposure of using a more realistic win number and having people betting their mortgages on the under?
Those teams really were a comedy of errors. So much went wrong – key injuries, prospects that didn’t develop, bad FA signings…
Yeah, I remember being in Chicago when they got swept that year (Steve’s contrarian opinion of the day: Wrigley is a hellhole) to get to see Tomo Ohka pitch a game, and Wood lose it on a wild pitch, and I was just like “whatever, this is how this season is going to be”.
not sure the start of the season will help your neurosis. after a month last year, we all thought our fears about the rotation were confirmed and that Reynolds was going to do his best Thome impression for us.
Wrigley is terrible. Wrigleyville (area around Wrigley) is fun.
I could do with quite a bit fewer wish-they-still-lived-in-the-frathouse drunken louts, but agree.
Sure, the line is designed to best make money for Vegas, but do you think many people are going “God hates Cleveland, so bet against them”? I’d guess Vegas believes that the Indians are about a .500 team. For comparison’s sake, Fangraphs projections have them at 81-81.
I’m guessing it has more to do with the opinion that we played over our heads thanks to a very easy August/September schedule. That seems to be the prevailing narrative.
good thing we still play in the AL Central
Sure, why not. Vegas had the Cavs at 40.5. this year. Cavs are more that likely not winning 17 of their last 20. Browns o/u was 6. Last year Vegas had the Cavs at 32.5 and the Browns at 5.5. God Hates Cleveland is 4-1 for the last two seasons and gamblers love trends right?
All kidding aside, thanks for pointing out the Fangraph projections. Now you got me wondering if Vegas matches their projections across the board.
Good research. Disheartening that Cleveland teams couldn’t even live up to meh expecations, but good research nonetheless. Maybe even if we can’t win, we can still make some money.
i love tito, but he does mash massive amounts of gum, compulsively.