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DP is our resident Michigan fan. As a sane and logical person (especially by comparison), I thought we’d have a back-and-forth about the game this weekend.  We did the Google Waving at each other and this is what we came up with. Side note: Go jump in Mirror Lake tomorrow night, folks.

DP: Call me crazy, but I think Michigan has a legitimate shot to win this game, though there are quite a few things that have to go right. It’s no secret that Tressel always saves some wrinkles for Michigan, and the Wolverines are not in a position to have to adapt on the fly on game-day. Those Buckeye fans expecting another 42-7 walk-over will be in for a rude awakening, as the Michigan offense is light-years ahead of last year’s unit. That said, if OSU can build a lead, Michigan is not a team well-equipped to come back from more than two scores behind.

Denny: Looking at the other side of things, the Buckeyes have shown a lot of growth over the course of the season. I think UM’s offense has a lot of potential to give the Bucks fits defensively – quick hit spread option offenses traditionally give OSU problems. The defense has kind of lived and died with the D-line – when they’re on (see: State, Penn) they’re one of the best in the country. When they’re off (like the were for much of the Iowa game, up until the OT), the defense suffers hugely. Offensively I think the Bucks are in a good spot – UM’s defense has not proven anything this year, and as long as extreme conservatism doesn’t rule the day I think they’ll be able to put up 24 or 28 fairly easily. UM has a shot, but needs to put up points early to make it a game.

DP: The one thing Michigan has on offense is wave upon wave of skill players. At least three running backs (bruiser Brandon Minor, speedy Carlos Brown, and electric freshman Vincent Smith) will probably get significant carries. Smith’s playing time has increased of late, and he had a TD against Bucky Badger on swing pass where he was able to get free in space and outrun everyone to the house. Depending on health, OSU has to be prepared for any combination of the following wide receivers: Greg Matthews, Junior Hemmingway, Roy Roundtree, Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, Kelvin Grady, and LaTerryal Savoy… not to mention TE Kevin Koger, who is similar to a Martin Rucker-type TE (the college version, anyway). And, of course there’s the QB Tate Forcier who can run and throw, and the spectre of Shoelace Denard Robinson. The offense has improved to score over 31 points per game this year, which is a far cry from last season’s sub-21-per-game clip.

Denny: The most glaring weakness to me about OSU’s defense is when Austin Spitler gets lined up against anybody with speed. With RRod’s players, most of them are known to have the speeds, and I fully expect to see that matchup exploited with RBs coming out of the backfield at Spitler. The Navy game showed what matchups an offense like this can exploit, and that was one of the most obvious. Howevaaa, I still like this OSU defense and think that the D-line will get the push they need. Mainly because Justin Boren is all into the things that get done there and will give super secret inside tips.

Robinson scares me none. When he comes in it’s like early Sophomore Troy Smith – blatantly obvious that it’s going to be a run, and that can be addressed easily.

Be afraid, DP. Be very afraid.

DP: OSU’s defensive line definitely worries me. Michigan lost David Molk in the first game, who was their best offensive lineman and played at the center position. David Moosman has filled in well (and has a sweet beard), but he isn’t in the same class as Molk and is definitely better at guard. OSU can bring so many guys on the D-line that Michigan’s O-line–which usually plays without a TE and sometimes has an empty backfield–will definitely have their hands full. That said, you bring up a good point as well: OSU has traditionally had trouble with teams that can run the spread with speed all over the field. If Forcier can get rid of the ball quickly, Michigan can definitely have some success at the edges with slants and bubble screens.

Denny: The best part of OSU’s D-line is the depth. If there’s a seam or something OSU can take advantage of on that front, they’ll keep throwing bodies at it and they’ll be fresh. UM’s line will already have their hands full, because they hold hands with the gentleman next to them. Short passes and the like will get some yardage, and I worry about RB screens, because OSU’s D-line gets such quick penetration that letting them fly by and running a screen is an adjustment that will likely work.

On the other side of the ball I don’t worry too much, because OSU’s run game has been more than clicking as of late. The passing game is rivaled only by the Browns in terms of keeping it safe and not going downfield. But, if there’s one thing Tress has shown over the years it’s that he’s willing to take shots against UM and will be more aggressive than he tends to play the other 12 games of the year.

DP: You actually bring up the area that I think actually gives the Wolverines a chance to hang around: Michigan’s defense looks awful on paper–and it has had stretches of putridity. But, where they are most vulnerable is in the passing game. The teams that have had the most success against them are the ones that could pass all over them (Iowa, Purdue, Michigan State, and honestly even Wisconsin, who built a lead by passing and then salted it away by running).

I will actually say that I think Michigan’s top three defensive linemen might be the best overall combination that OSU will have faced this season. Quite frankly, they have not yet had to play against someone like Brandon Graham. Graham has 26 sacks over the past three seasons, and is so quick off the edge that he’s been able to make life rough on opposing offensive lines. Graham lines up on both sides of the line at various points during the game, and with stalwart sophomore Mike Martin (6′2″, 292#) and junior Ryan Van Bergen clogging the middle, if Graham can gain the edge on OSU’s tackles he might be able to neutralize Terrelle Pryor’s scrambling a bit and force him into some bad throws.

The double-edged sword there is that, behind that solid defensive line the talent gets thinner and thinner all the way back to the secondary. New coordinator Greg Robinson has brought a 3-4 look to Michigan, and quite frankly they don’t have the LBs to pull it off. And, other than Donovan Warren in the secondary, there’s not too much back there to worry about. The key will be the D-line shutting down the run and forcing Pryor to take check-downs or make bad decisions/throws.

Denny: Though he’s been on a short leash, Pryor has proved to be making better decisions as the season’s progressed. I don’t worry too much about him getting bright-eyed and afraid after playing the way he did in Happy Valley. UM’s crowd is big, but quiet. And the fact that they’re limping in will mean the crowd will be less of a factor than before.

DP: Oh, I don’t think “Purdue TP” is showing up necessarily. It’s not so much that I think he’ll be a deer in the headlights so much as I think he’ll try to do too much when maybe he shouldn’t. “Forcing TP into the checkdowns” doesn’t mean he’ll take them. What Michigan can ill afford is to let him have time to go through his progressions like he had against PSU. They have to cause him to accellerate his decision-making, wherein he might try to force some things. I would consider it a victory for Michigan’s defense to force Tressel’s hand and make him kick field goals, because Devin Barclay is not up to the usual Tressel standard of kicker-as-weapon.

Most of all, Michigan really has to weather the proverbial storm. As you point out, OSU always brings their A-game to UM under Tressel. The interesting UM stat of the season is that in the first, second, and fourth quarters they’ve outscored their opponents 303-225. It’s the halftime-hangover that’s killed them (outscored 78-41 in the third quarter this year). Michigan is 1-6 in conference, yes, but they’ve lost three of those six by a collective 10 points: by 6 to MSU in OT after a mesmerizing rally to tie it late in the game; by 2 to Iowa on the road i a night game; and by 2 to Purdue mainly because their kicker shanked a PAT and they had to thus go for the 2-pt conversion late in an effort to tie. They led Illinois and Purdue at the half, and the former was a total mental collapse in the third quarter as a long TD pass was overturned by review, as was a fourth-down TD run from the 1 on the ensuing series. So, I guess what I’m saying is that I have faith in their ability to keep it close with OSU through the first half, and if they can weather the post-halftime storm they have a shot.

The biggest x-factor will be turnovers. Michigan has been bad in their losses at turning the ball over (especially Iowa and Illinois), and much better in their wins

Denny: If the turnover game is really going to be King here, I like our chances. Forcing TP through progressions might work, but I think he can get to the edge against the UM defense if he needs to. He’s started to run more aggressively and not avoid contact (though his sprained ankle might come into play), and I don’t see Graham being as big as some folks might expect him to be. He just played the Mike Hart game and said really, really dumb things. I don’t think that’s a wise thing to do.

FACT: Guys who play on a team that hasn’t won in a rivalry game since they’ve been recruited have no room to talk trash.

DP: I agree, though I tend to agree about his comments about Boren. He’s viewed as a baby who couldn’t handle change by most Michigan fans. That said, keep your mouth shut, BG.

More to come at 2 PM, including Rich Rod’s future and good old-fashioned name calling!