Rays 4 Indians 3: AC Hurt, The Underwood Jinx
May 18, 2010The Cabrera Injury: What Now?
May 18, 2010
Yesterday, I finally read an interesting piece about LeBron’s free agency. Rather than guess where LeBron will end up, John Hollinger dug through his stats (Subscription) to create a LeBron Rating to see which players would be best alongside LeBron. He used a player’s ability to hit long 2 point shots as his qualifier for starters. Then he used an equation involving his usage ratings, true shooting percentage, turnovers, and offensive rebounds to come up with a list. I won’t post the whole thing because it is behind ESPN’s Insider paywall, but it led to some interesting analysis for me.
First of all, Hollinger’s rating doesn’t take defense into account at all. So consequently Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, David Lee and Amare Stoudemire top the list based on offensive production. Bosh scores higher than anyone going over 71. Baron Davis scores the bottom spot with a rating of just over 45. Other than the fact that it doesn’t take defense into account, it is also worth noting that it doesn’t take into account a probable dropoff in opportunities for some of these guys once they become LeBron’s teammate. When looking at the Cavalier totals, remember that Antawn Jamison took almost 5 fewer shots per game after joining the Cavaliers from when he was a dominant presence on the Wizards.
Hollinger’s analysis doesn’t include any Cavaliers, so I decided to estimate some Cavaliers for him. I say estimate because I don’t have access to the offensive rebounding statistic for every player. I used a guess on my part to estimate the offensive rebounding number for each Cavalier at something below their total rebounding statistic (obviously,) while also giving a little leeway for those who I thought would be better at it than others. Also, just for fun, I did Luol Deng and Joakim Noah based on the hot talk about Chicago being a potential destination for LeBron.
| Anderson Varejao | 52.2 |
| Antawn Jamison | 50.0 |
| Shaq | 49.2 |
| Hickson | 47.4 |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 45.5 |
| Daniel Gibson | 44.5 |
| Mo Williams | 44.0 |
| Jamario Moon | 43.8 |
| Anthony Parker | 41.0 |
| Delonte West | 39.5 |
| Telfair | 36.7 |
| Joakim Noah | 49.2 |
| Luol Deng | 46.2 |
What’s the conclusion? Tough to say for sure. Nobody denies that Chris Bosh would be a great teammate for LeBron. Also, as a couple WFNY writers pointed out in our email conversation, where was this analysis when the Cavs were debating Antawn Jamison and Amare Stoudemire? Then again, as with any statistical analysis, this is far from complete. The Cavs were scared of Amare due to his likelihood of re-signing with the Cavs.
Another thing this analysis goes to show me is that despite all the talk of LeBron going to other teams, the Cavs have a nice compliment of players to play with LeBron. If they can somehow pitch that LeBron needs to re-sign and help them sign and trade for another piece, the Cavaliers have a lot of the necessary pieces to compliment he and one other player already.
(Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)
44 Comments
I can’t take another 6 to 10 weeks of all LeBron all the time. I’m declaring my temporal and spiritual being a LeBron-free zone. No gossip, no speculation, no silliness, no nuthin’. When something concrete happens, I’ll care. Til then, I’m eschewing all newspaper articles, blogs, radio shows, TV shows, billboards, videos, etc. that have anything to do with this soap opera.
Am I the only one who feels there is zero chance of Lebron staying?
@2 the professionals who handicap this still have cleveland as the most likely spot for him. that should give you hope.
from bodog this morning:
Which team will LeBron James play for in his first game of the 2010-2011 Season?
Chicago Bulls 3/2
Cleveland Cavaliers 1/1
Miami Heat 15/2
New Jersey Nets 11/2
New York Knicks 5/2
Yahoo! has offensive rebound averages (and totals).
The only conclusion I can draw from this is that when Lebron re-signs (I personally think he will), we need to find some way to land Chris Bosh….number crunchers go!
Nice work, Craig. I like that Andy is first, after you underlined how defense is absent in Hollinger’s analysis (which is weird to begin with).
And I think JJ Hickson’s numbers would drop off heavily if he were with another team (maybe not PHX or GSW, though).
One thing that’s hard to account for, is controlling for LeBron. You mentioned that Jamison took less shots coming to the Cavs. At the same time, you don’t really know how effective these guys would be without LeBron. But I guess maybe that’s the point (ie: these guys are effective with LeBron).
@ stin4u http://evilsushi.com/archive/number_munchers.gif
Is this the same John Hollinger who assured us that the Cavs would beat the Celtics, even after game two? Where do I sign up to start paying money for his insights?
Le-Gone isn’t staying. Lets just move on.
I WILL KEEP CLICKING YOUR WEBSITE AND READING YOUR ARTICLES. I WILL THEN USE THE COMMENTS TO TELL YOU LEBRON IS LEAVING AND YOU SHOULD STOP WASTING YOUR TIME.
If LeBron stays then our flexibility is going to depend on Shaq. I would personnaly like to see him gone, preferably through a S&T (I was wrong yesterday when I said expiring, thanks Craig). Would Shaq want to play for Toronto and at how much would be the question. At this point I’m sure he wants to play for a contender, so a third team maybe?
Personnelly, I think our biggest opportunity would be to get Chris Paul. With the selling of the team and the emergence of his backup while Paul was injured, we may be able to get something there.
i think a Bosh trade is possible. it would take creativity but its not beyond the realm of impossibility. it would certainly require taking back Hedo for starters. Hedo+Bosh for Shaq (sign and trade)+Hickson+jamison+ danny green/christian eyenga/delonte west/daniel gibson? it may also require a third team to get involved. before anyone asks why shaq would agree to go to toronto, he could easily get bought out and then go where he pleases. a swap of jose calderon for mo williams as well? im just throwing things out there.
I agree with Daredent. Why aren’t we discussing the other perennial playoff team, with the league’s best player and that is our best chance at winning a championship in Cleveland?
It seems that the ‘best’ players paired with LeBron were all big men. Guards had an immediate disadvantage because they dont get many offensive rebounds. One could argue that a dominant point guard would be more beneficial around LeBron than a dominant center. Also the fact that no defense was taken into account was kind of garbage. This was a stupid ‘statistical’ analysis. I think its common knowledge that LeBron would play great with Bosh, Dirk, and Amare: I didnt need numbers to tell me that. I like Hollingers power ranking system, but this was worthless
I agree with #14.
LeBron and Wade would be the most unstoppable duo (IMO). 2 guys who can do everything paired up would make it impossible for the defense to adjust.
but, Wade apparently can’t rebound well enough, so cancel him out?
———–
Anyway, IMO LeBron needs a player who can make it so he doesn’t have to initiate the offense all the time. if LeBron is the secondary on the play, then it opens up the floor so much more not just for LeBron, but for everyone.
For all those looking to avoid all thing Lebron, stay away from ESPN (as if you need another reason) – this Hollinger piece was actually the kickoff article of Lebron Week. I kid you not.
well, why not. the NBA obviously doesn’t have anything else going on right now.
no NBA lottery or conference finals or buildup to the draft.
shouldn’t LeBron week be the week between the draft and FA starting? or is that “LeBron week II”
I’m going to nominate myself as Lebron’s best teammate. I don’t need to take any shots, I can stand in the corner and watch him take on the opposing team’s defense (set plays 1-5), and I can even step up and take a charge. Plus, I only need to make the league minimum. I’m surprised Danny Ferry hasn’t called me yet.
Let me preface this by saying I thoroughly enjoy this website and it’s atop my favorites list. With that being said, I’m close to putting wfny on my ban list along with ESPN. It hasn’t even been a week and this site has multiple ‘Lebron Leaving’ themed articles every day. I literally haven’t turned on ESPN since Tuesday of last week because it’s sickening how they’re sacrificing journalistic integrity in lieu of publishing ‘Lebron is going to a big market…’ crap. I know you guys aren’t in that same boat but how many ‘Lebron speculation’ articles are you going to put out between now and July 1st? I understand that this is the biggest story in the Cleveland market but at what point is this classified as ‘beating a dead horse’? If he wants to leave after quitting on his team I would personally prefer him to announce he’s leaving today and stop holding this proud franchise hostage until July 1st. It’s unfair how he is sacrificing his hometown basketball team in an attempt to increase his popularity worldwide during this FA sideshow.
I am all ears for someone to tell me both why and how Lebron should, in reality, save us all and quell the present media concentration on him.
As far as I am concerned, if your problem is with the three-year contract, you should have done your barking three years ago.
If for some reason the ping pong ball falls right for the Clippers and they land the #1 pick, LBJ will be a Clipper… John Wall and Blake Griffin, they will be an instant favorite come July 1st.
TIME TO START THE LEBRON MORATORIUM???????
@J-dub – your point is well taken. I would much rather read about the subject here as opposed to hearing it from the ever biased ESPN as you suggest. But at the same time would you rather be refreshing the page to see 3 articles about Indians SABR metrics? or hear about Browns OTA’s and what brand of clip board Colt McCoy will sport this year?
There just isn’t much else to write about at this point, and at least coming here the writers mostly present a glass half full approach the whole situation. I feel your pain my man, but at the same time I can’t fault these guys, so I just go with the flow.
Not blaming these guys at all but there literally isn’t anything more to be said. I honestly would rather read about our pathetic Indians team or some of the OTA drama going on with the Browns, anything to shift our focus from the impending doom that is coming our way on July 1st. Let’s face it, at this point he’s much closer to being the demise of the franchise than the savior of it.
As for the ‘should’ve griped 3 years ago’ comment, it’s one thing to sign a 3 year deal and keep your options open. It’s another thing to turn this into one of the more well crafted marketing campaigns ever put together by an athlete/his handlers….it’s something completely different to drag your hometown franchise/fanbase through this mess. I’m not even saying come out nationally and ruin the suspense, but give Gilbert a heads up so he can plan accordingly. I understand whatever he does, but this franchise can’t take one step forward until this egomaniac makes a decision. There are classier ways to handle the situation is all…
Brian, intersting possibility. I’m just not sure Lebron’s ego is willing to play for a team that will always be the second most popular team in it’s own arena (and city and state for that matter).
Just an FYI, exact offensive rebound stats are available at basketball-reference.com
@ J-Dub – just going to point out that while you don’t have much control over what we write here on the site (input is always welcome!), you DO, in fact, have control over which internet link buttons that you click on.
J-Dub,
I don’t see how your proposed heads-up to Gilbert could be done or would be effective concerning the “mess” or “marketing campaign.”
Elaborate?
Lay out a better (“classier”) way.
It’s not like anyone else can sign players before July 1st either, but if he drags it out until mid July or August, he will have essentially held the Cavaliers hostage.
These articles aren’t something we trot out lightly either. We are sick and tired of all this just like the rest of you. Still, we need to figure out where we fit into the storyline. We want to provide some balance that doesn’t forget about Cleveland.
In this case, I read Hollinger’s analysis and realized there were no Cavaliers on the list. It seemed logical to me to fire up Excel and see just where some of the Cavaliers’ fit.
We will not be reporting and responding to every little rumor that is fired up, but we do owe something to our coverage of the Cavaliers to at least provide balance to the story when we can.
We won’t take it personally if some of you skip all of our Cavs coverage from here until LeBron makes a decision. I am guessing a lot of the writers here at the site wish that we could all just ignore it too. For better or for worse as a site devoted to Cleveland sports, we just can’t ignore it for the next 6 weeks.
We will, however do all in our power to provide something interesting without annoying the crap out of you. It might be a fool’s errand, but we will try anyway.
Further, J-Dub,
I don’t see a “marketing campaign,” it looks mostly like a natural product of two plain observations: his free agency and his ability. I can imagine an attempt to manage it, PR-wise, but it hardly seems the product of a marketing campaign.
And I don’t really see how this is a “mess” unless one thinks they have a vested right in a particular outcome.
Maybe “vested” is a word too many, there.
@ Matt#2 Jim Tressel has no issues with your word usage.
That’s because Tressel is BEHIND this media circus.
Hmm.. Clippers the fave if they hit the lotto? You really think LeBron would be THAT eager to go play with (a) a guy who couldn’t even make it through preseason of his rookie year and (b) a totally unproven rookie? I don’t know. LeBron has screwed himself as much he’s screwed us, because truthfully he doesn’t have the time to join a team with a plan like OKC’s at this point (eg tons of young guys, one or two bad seasons to develop).
If the kid wants to win as much as he CLAIMS to and money really doesn’t matter, smart money would be to take the max the Thunder can offer (I think still a substantial amount?) and play there. Doubt anyone beats that team. But we all know money and fame are the two true driving factors for his decision. Which makes me optimistic the clown will stay here.
MattC
“But we all know money and fame are the two true driving factors for his decision.”
Well, I’ll bite.
I, for one, know no such thing.
How do you know it?
I quit.
hope that the WFNY guys say something about the possibility (however remote) that the Wiz might part ways with Agent 0 and possibly bringing him into the fold with LBJ? He has history with Antawn…and can score from the outside…can defend when he wants to…etc etc…
@ DK – I think that Arenas is going to stay in DC. A Wall/Arenas backcourt is (in theory) pretty filthy. They could move Arenas to the 2 and let Wall run things.
I agree Denny, but I think (even if incorrectly assuming) that the Wiz were going to try and distance themselves from Arenas…and that would be a very very intriguing lineup with Arenas, LBJ, and Antawn…however remote of a chance…I believe that Wall will be a baller, but I dont know that pairing him with someone like Arenas is a good idea for him to start his career off…I would assume putting him with someone who is a spot up shooter would be a better option…Arenas is more of a slasher…I’d like to see him with LBJ so LBJ can work on playing off the ball and using his speed, strength, etc and utilize a low post game…but again, thats saying he stays and we could work a deal for Agent 0…
As much as I disliked him in Wash, I wouldnt mind seeing him here as it gives them 3 legit scorers, and the ability for Andy to continue to do what he does…without putting pressure on him to score…
J-dub for Lebron’s new teammate
Hollinger is a moron. I’ll leave it at that.
Honestly, the better question would be what offensive systems fit The team’s and LeBron’s skill best. I’m firmly convinced that Mike Brown didn’t put our players in the best situations to put the ball in the basket. I would like to see a combination of Utah’s motion, Suns transition and the Magic’s inside out game. It’s unrealistic to continually put LeBron in isos and expect him to generate most of the offense through FGs and assists. When it’s not working efficiently, we will lose, and one dimensional offenses aren’t sustainable in the playoffs.
Whoever the next coach is going to be, he better know how to install an offense that puts every player in a position to create independantly from LeBron (see: JJ Hickson)
certainly not the old fat o’neal