The Jake Westbrook Situation

Last night’s win over the Tigers was promising.  Not only was this team hurting for a victory after losing three of four to the Yankees, but other than Choo’s home run, each of the performances buoyed the potential trade value of some Cleveland assets.  Russell Branyan hit his seventh home run, Kerry Wood gathered a save, and Jake Westbrook looked sharp, giving up one run through seven and two thirds solid innings.

While everybody knows that the goal will be to trade Branyan and Wood before the deadline, the Westbrook situation is a bit more interesting.  For one thing, Westbrook will certainly be the most valuable trade chip we have this summer.  He’s a 32 year old starting pitcher who would fit nicely in the middle of a rotation for a contending team.  A groundball machine, he’s still striking out about 1.5 as many batters as he walks, and that figure is skewed down by his first few starts of the year wherein he was still struggling mightily with his control.  In other words, he should bring some value on the trade market.  He’s in the final year of his contract which will pay him $11 million this season; the Indians will have paid about $5 million by the middle of June—the time when he would likely be traded.

But the Indians still have some options in how (or whether) they go about moving Jake.  And which option they choose will tell us a lot about the financial constraints on the front office and the value of Westbrook on the open market.  Let’s dissect.

Trade Westbrook to a contender and pick up a portion of his remaining salary. This move should look familiar, because it’s exactly the way we got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake.  When we moved Blake to LA, the Dodgers’ ownership was beginning its downward slide, and, to save a few bucks, they offered up a blue chip prospect for an aging utility man.  Craig wrote up the value of the Blake trade yesterday, and I completely agree with his sentiment: of all the moves the front office has made over the past several years, this one sticks out as a steal.  But it only happened because the Indians were willing to pay Blake’s salary for the rest of the season.  Had it been a pure salary dump (ala Paul Byrd in 2008), the team would have gotten next to nothing in return.

So if the Indians trade Westbrook AND agree to pay some or all of his remaining salary, there’s a good chance that we can pry a good young prospect from the deal.  Potential teams with rotation needs and decent prospects:  Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins.

Trade Westbrook to a contender as a salary dump. If the Indians refuse to pick up any of Westbrook’s remaining $6 million, they’re likely to get a meager return.  Above I mentioned the Paul Byrd trade to the Red Sox in 2008.  Now I’ll ask you: who did we get in return?  Can’t think of his name?  That’s because we got something called a “Mickey Hall.”  Yeah, I’ve never heard of him either.

It’s true that Westbrook is more valuable than Byrd, but not by much.  He’s owed considerably more money than Byrd was, and while his numbers are better, Westbrook’s still got a career 4.31 ERA with fewer than five strikeouts per 9 IP.  If we don’t throw in some cash, we’re not likely to get much more than we got for Rafael Betancourt (Connor Graham—a low-level bullpen prospect).  If this move gets made at the deadline, I’ll be the first in line to yell about the Dolans’ miserly ways.  Possible teams without decent prospects who may want Westbrook: St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, ???

But there’s a third option available to the Indians, and if exercised, it could be revealing.

Keep Westbrook for the season, so when he signs elsewhere as a free agent, we get draft compensation. Westbrook will likely be a Type B free agent this off-season, and if he were to sign with another team, the Indians would receive a supplementary draft pick in the 2011 draft (between the first and second rounds).  If the front office can’t get a good enough return on Westbrook in the trade market, they might opt to keep him, offer him arbitration, hope he doesn’t accept, and signs elsewhere, netting the Indians a decent draft pick.

This scenario sounds good, since we get to keep Westbrook for the entire season, but there are some risks.  First, the team would have to offer Westbrook arbitration and he would have to decline.  There’s no certainty on either of those counts.  Second, this team doesn’t exactly have a shining track record when it comes to the draft (though I believe it is now mandatory to mention that the current scouting director, Brad Grant, has only been on the job since 2008, and his early picks look promising).  Still, we know that Shapiro can identify talent in trades; in drafts, well, the jury is still out.  There’s also the problem associated with a player’s developmental arc.  Any player who will be drafted in the sandwich round is likely further away from impacting the major league team than a player that already has pro experience.

Finally, there’s just no guarantee that the Indians aren’t interested in signing Westbrook next season.  After all, it’s fairly likely that Cleveland will be looking for a veteran starter this off-season in the Carl Pavano mold.  If Westbrook’s traded, we can still resign him in the off-season.  But if we let him go to another club for draft compensation, there’s obviously no chance of getting him back.

So while this last option might have the most upside, it also has the highest potential for a flameout.

If I were the Indians, I’d try to trade Jake to a contender, pay most of his salary, and get a good prospect in return.  I’d even be willing to enter the free agency market for his services next season, so long as he doesn’t command more than $8 to $10 million for two years.  The team will be out from under both the Wood and Westbrook contracts this winter, so there should be an extra $22 million floating around the coffers.  Like I said, Jake’s a valuable commodity, and with a staff full of ground-ball artists, it might be a good thing to keep him around.

Believe it or not, not all trades of proven commodities for prospects are simply salary dumps, but if they move Westbrook without picking up the tab, we’ll know for sure that the Dolans aren’t willing to make this team better.  I’ll be watching closely.