Back in First – Espino Shines, Bats Push Clippers Back Into Division Lead
September 1, 2010Ohio State/Michigan: Different Divisions, Same Final Game
September 1, 2010The Browns finished the 2009 season at 5-11 after winning their last 4 games against teams 14 games under .500. This season the Browns haven’t gotten much love from the national media, and Vegas has placed the over/under on games won at 5.5 for the Browns. Today’s roundtable question is simple- over or under 5.5 wins for the Browns and why…
Craig: I will take the over, but just by a little. I had the over/under at 6 in my mind coming into this season just based on the win streak to end last year. After watching what the offense is capable of in the pre-season, I think it is due a slight increase. The Browns have a difficult schedule, but the additions of Jake Delhomme, Ben Watson and Peyton Hillis seem significant. The improvement of players like Mohamed Massoquai, Brian Robiskie, and Josh Cribbs could really put this team over the top. Well, over the top of the 5.5 game over/under anyway.
Andrew: Every year at this time I’m a hopeless optimist when it comes to the Browns. I still have a lot of concerns with this team on both sides of the ball, but I see improvement over last year’s team everywhere. Coach Mangini’s style seems to be taking hold with this team and players are buying in. With more talent, a better team mentality, and more time for the offensive and defensive schemes to take hold, I think the Browns will find a way to win 6 games this year. I know I’m blindly foolish, but I’ll take the over.
Dan: I would love to take the over, but the schedule looks very daunting. I think the first two weeks are winnable games, but a gauntlet of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Pittsburgh (with Big Ben), New Orleans, New England, and the Jets could have the Browns staring at 2-7 or even 1-8. The last three weeks of the season are the second leg of the division battles, but there are also some winnable games after that tough stretch. So, I’d love to take the over, but I’m having trouble finding six wins on the schedule right now. I guess at this point I’d settle for improvement, which would be 4-12 or 5-11 with a slew of competitive games as opposed to a bunch of 20-point losses (seriously, go back and look at the first nine games last year; average score: Opponents 25, Browns 8.7). If they can trim that margin and actually look like an NFL team most weeks, I’ll consider it improvement.
Brendan: I’d bet the over. I’m going into this season with nothing but high hopes and positive vibes but in taking a step back from all that I truly do think six wins is attainable. After watching this team develop throughout the preseason I really think seven can happen, but that’s not the question. To me, this season would be a disappointment if the Browns finished with five wins or less, and it really feels like they’re taking a step forward. Ace Rothstein and company aren’t usually wrong though, and it does worry me some that Vegas set this number at 5.5. But I do think it will be six or more, and I am confident enough to bet Rick’s house on it. So we’ll see what happens.
Scott: You figure that this team was brutally awful one season ago and managed to go 5-11. They’ve added some pieces across the board, rid themselves of the troublesome players and appear to be moving in the right direction with Mike Holmgren in charge. Then you look at the schedule and see a stretch that has them playing seven straight games against teams that many peg to make the playoffs, and then finish up the season against all three division rivals – a division within which the Browns have won all of two games in the last two seasons.
As of today, I see the Browns winning the first two games of the season, though both games will not be as much of a gimme as most fans think. Tampa Bay is on the road and KC has improved within their coaching ranks as well as their roster. I feel that they can beat the Jaguars on the road as this game may as well be a neutral field. I am confident that they can take the game against the Bills as well. If they can take at least one game between the Atlanta/Carolina/Miami troika – something that isn’t exactly out of the realm of possibility – that gets us to five. And then we can’t count out the “who the hell are these guys!?” game where they stun an opponent that they have no business even competing against. It was New York in 2008, Pittsburgh in 2009. Just for fun, let’s say its the New York Jets in 2010.
Six games. I’ll take the over.
Rick: I’d first like to take my house off the wager market thank you Brendan. Everyone points out that the first two games are very winnable. That may be true, but the Browns are not exactly a charge out of the gate strong team. In fact, they are 1-10 in season openers since returning to the league. (This is also the first season since their return in which they begin the season on the road.)
I do think this team is improved. I think the secondary will be better, but that might take a while to see with two rookies and a new player (Brown) in the mix. I think the offensive line is better with Lauvao and Womack or Pashos than last year’s grouping on the right side. Fujita and Gocong are upgrades. I’ll take Delhomme and Wallace over Anderson and Quinn. That being said, the schedule looks to be more difficult than last years. Playing the AFC East is no picnic this year. Atlanta and New Orleans are nice treats as well.
I can’t get away from the idea that this team is better than it was last season. Are the improvements worth 1 or 2 wins? How could they not be. I’ll take the over.
29 Comments
I’ll go the over. Let’s say 6 wins.
With that said, I also think we’ll see much more “competitive” losses this year…games where we feel like we’re actually watching a real NFL football team instead of a MAC team, even if we don’t win.
Another year, another trip to the overly-optimistic well!
Over. And if they stun the Jets, all the more fun (I currently reside in NYC)!
6-10 or if Rapefulberger gets stuck with a six game suspension then 7-9.
@TB
KC
CIN
ATL
@JAX
@BUF
PIT
That’s 7. So I guess I’ll take the over…
If they can get 2 wins out of the gate, who knows?
Again, I think we’ll all be amazed at how well the Vegas lines work for the house. I think they’ve set this exactly on the 50/50 point. I can honestly see it going either way this year.
With that said, I have to believe we’ll be able to make the .500 mark this year.
i’ll take the over as well but it will depend on the health of the team. The Browns have more talent overall than the last couple of years but still are not very deep at a bunch of positions.
That can go both ways though and teams we think are tough right now may be hobbled in a couple of months.
I would like to see them start doing what good teams do. Win your home games, play tough on the road, go at least .500 in the division.
All that being said, beating pissburgh once or twice is all I really hope for since I live in this crap town and won’t be able to stand the locals the next 4-5 months.
Oh…I’m not saying it’ll happen. I’m just saying that I have to believe it.
Can I take the over with 5.75 as my number?
I’ll say 6-10 but I’m not very confident. That schedule is brutal. I am more interested in continued improvement in play. No 20pt loses. Let’s show we can play with the big boys and start beating them.
Yeah, I think I’d take the over but not by much, mostly – as people have pointed out – because the schedule is brutal this year.
Under. Not with this schedule, not with this defense we’ve seen so far in preseason and not with Pashos and/or Womack in there.
An optimistic 7-9; but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see another 5-11 or 4-12.
Over. This might sound strange, but the Browns weren’t as bad as they looked last year. It’s just that we had one of the worst QB performances in NFL history. It skewed our perception of things.
Last year they were effectively a 1-10 team, so playing like a competitive 6-10 team would be a huge improvement.
Basically maintaining what they started at the end of last year.
Would still take the over
I still can’t get over how we were beating the Vikings at halftime of the first game, and then were tied 0-0 with the Ravens at halftime of the Monday night game….maybe we should have gotten .5 wins for each of those….
On that note….how awesome did it feel in that first game to be up on Favre, knowing how awesome of a season we were going to have!!….oops
…It felt awesome…everything is awesome
I’ve been saying 6-10 for the last month. I feel we can beat KC TB BUF. We can split with Pitt and Cinci. If a ball bounces right we can steal one from Balt. We MIGHT be able to sneak up on NE. We can hang with MIA.
then again, it’s all about who can stay healthy.
6 sounds right but I’ll be optimistic and say 7-9. The defense will struggle throughout the season one game it’ll be an inability to stop the run and the next it’ll be the young secondary being torched – growing pains. I don’t envision much pressure being put on the opposing quarterback either. As far as the offense goes if the Browns can’t run the next best weapons will be Watson and Moore. The young WRs will struggle leaving the TEs as the only options. Just not enough talent overall but I’ll be happy if they just compete.
6-10 seems best case, under is more likely to me. I can say this for certain, however: if we can’t beat the Bucs in the opener, regardless of its location, get ready for a long, long season. As someone living in the Tampa area, I can attest that the Bucs are absolutely atrocious in all areas, and their ownership should make us all feel grateful for Randy Lerner.
Over. I think we’re gonna see a much improved Cleveland Browns team this year. QB play is light years ahead of last year and will open up the running game even more. Defense, though still porous, is better than a year ago.
I’ll take 8-8 and another large kool-aid, please.
I thought there was an official ruling from the NFL that Ben was reduced to 5 games. The Browns vs. Steelers is the 5th game for the steelers…. so I wouldnt rule anything out. If they get shaky QB play, like we saw last December, that O will **STRUGGLE** (wanted to emphasize it a bit). Its not a good O. Their running game hasnt really gotten anywhere. And I saw a Pitt D that self destructed in a PRESEASON game last weekend. I dont know if all this equals a browns win, or even better a sweep for the season, but the teams are much closer to each other than they have been for quite some time.
I have a radio show at BG (during our first show we talked about 3 or 4 articles from WFNY) and my cohost and I played this game last Sunday. I said 5, he said 7, and whoever isn’t right owes the other guy lunch…..if they win six though, we’ll just go half on a pizza
That beer looks delicious.
Over. 8-8. And we beat all of our division rivals, at least once, to break even in the AFC North for the first time in…forever?
Thank you sir may I have another?!
This isn’t Kool Aid, this is Hi-C from a can opened with a church key and those triangle hole openings/germ catchers.
I agree that 5 games or less would be a severe disappointment. I’m also looking at the fact that this team was putrid last year and still managed to put together 5 Ws. Further, QB is by far the most important position on the field, where I believe the Browns have improved DRAMATICALLY from last year (no matter what you think of Delhomme).
I’ve said it since Vegas came out with the 5.5 o/u and I’m going to put my money where my mouth is in my betting account; there’s no way Cleveland wins less than 6 games this year.
Bobby,
“I thought there was an official ruling from the NFL that Ben was reduced to 5 games”
That was a intentionally bogus report by Mike Wise of the Washington Post to test the strength of twitter. Wise got suspended for a month for it.
The suspension for #7 is still at 6 games and it will be decided tomorrow if it is reduced. I’ve heard art rooney will be going and they are looking for a reduction to 3 games.
@25- ya thanks.. had a friend that usually tells me good info and after i posted i realized he was wrong.
I say over, 6-10 or even 7-9 if the cards are right. I actually see us beating the Jets. I watched their preseason game with Washington last night and they look awful.
Does anybody know what the Vegas line was in 2008? I don’t remember but I’m willing to bet it was 9 or 10 games and we all know how that worked out.
We are closer to the Squealers than we have been in awhile and that loss last year has to be on their minds. I see us taking one from them and one from either the Ratbirds or the Bungles, the Jets, KC, Tampa and maybe Jacksonville or Carolina and another surprise win like NE or Atlanta.
Just looked up the 2008 line, they had us at 8, Piggsburgh 9, Cinci 7 and Baltimore 6. Shows what Vegas knows.
Over. There has been some (although slight) upgrade of talent over last year and the ridiculous amount of drama should be absent. 6-10 is certainly doable; 7-9 if things run reasonably steady; 8-8 with some luck; 9-7 if the second coming of Jesus occurs in Cleveland at halftime of the Steelers game.