Buckeye 12 Pack- Wisconsin Edition
October 18, 2010Cavaliers Rotation Shakes Out Heading into Opening Night
October 18, 2010In the interest of full-disclosure, I should begin with a warning. Despite the title, this isn’t going to be a post about how the Dolans are cheap or how baseball is unfair or about how I’m not going to watch Indians games until they institute a salary cap. It just isn’t.
Why do I eschew these themes? Well, frankly, I’m tired of them. They’re not interesting. They’re not compelling. They’re not thoughtful. They don’t teach me anything. They’ve been done to death.
What I want to do instead is look at what the Indians can realistically accomplish with their roster and payroll over the next few months and to begin the conversation about when we might find an end to the current “reloading” phase and get back to the 2005-2007 years when the team was contending. For whatever it’s worth, I believe that the team can contend again, and this post is going to begin to look for a path toward that contention.
With that nonsense out of the way, let’s look at some numbers. Roughly speaking*, here’s how the Indians’ 40-man roster panned out last year by way of payroll:
Player | Salary ($mil) |
Hafner | $11.5 |
Westbrook | $11.0 |
Wood | $10.5 |
Sizemore | $5.8 |
Carmona | $5.1 |
Peralta | $4.9 |
Branyan | $1.5 |
Wright | $0.9 |
Redmond | $0.9 |
R. Perez | $0.8 |
Kearns | $0.8 |
Grudzielanek | $0.6 |
Subtotal | $54.1 |
28 @ League Min | $11.2 |
TOTAL | $65.3 |
*I say ‘roughly speaking’ because, even though the numbers are pulled from Cots Baseball Contracts, there were pro-rated portions for traded players, various levels of MLB minimum, unfilled roster spots, and other minutiae that affected the total number. For our purposes, this should be an adequate representation.
You’ll see that we had 12 players on MLB contracts, with the rest of the 40-man roster making the league minimum (roughly $400,000). Those top 12 players accounted for $54.1 million of the $65.3 million total (83%).
I bring up these numbers because I think we can use them as a gauge for what we might be able to expect in 2011 in terms of payroll and roster construction. We’ll get there in a second.
First let’s look at what we’re locked into for the 2011 season in terms of roster spots and salaries. After shedding Wood, Westbrook, Peralta, and the rest, and adding some arbitration-eligible pay-raises, we’re going to be looking at something like the following. (The italics in this chart are my best guess of what those players will make next season.*)
Player | 2011 |
Hafner | $13.0 |
Sizemore | $7.7 |
Carmona | $6.3 |
Choo | $4.0 |
Cabrera | $2.0 |
C. Perez | $2.0 |
R. Perez | $1.0 |
J. Lewis | $0.7 |
Subtotal | $36.6 |
*I’m assuming the club non-tenders some arbitration-eligibles or that they won’t make much more than league-minimum; I’m thinking of guys like Andy Marte, Joe Smith, Aaron Laffey, and Anthony Reyes. Either way, they shouldn’t be making much more than league-minimum if they manage to stick around.
Every player on this list will be making more money than he did in 2010. That’s one of the consequences of arbitration-eligibility and a fondness for structuring contracts with escalators. Last season, this group of players made about $25 million; in 2011, the same group will be making about $37 million.
Anyway, we’re locked into something like that $37 million for next season. If we filled out the roster using only league-minimum players, the roster would look something like this:
MLB Contracts |
League Min. |
TOTAL |
|
Number |
8 |
32 |
40 |
Dollars |
$36.6 |
$ 12.8 |
$49.4 |
So, assuming a full 40-man roster, the smallest our payroll can possibly be next season is around $50 million. That’s assuming we sign no players to major-league contracts before next season and take on no money in trades. In this scenario, 32 members of the 40-man roster would be making the league minimum.
But I don’t think that’s particularly likely. After all, this team has some major league holes, and while it’s nice have some productive players making the minimum (Carloses Santana and Carrasco come to mind), it’s also a fact that this roster could use some freshening up.
So let’s make some assumptions. First, let’s assume that the 2010 payroll is a reasonable guide for 2011: somewhere in the $60 to $65 million range. Second, let’s assume that with their extra money to spend, the club wants to add a few major-league pieces on short-term deals.
Based on these assumptions, we’re going to have somewhere between $11 and $16 million to spend this offseason on free agents. And with that money, the club will pursue free agents to strengthen the roster. These are assumption I know that many of you won’t agree with. We’ll just have to wait and see, I guess.
On Thursday, we’ll look at where (and on whom) the Indians might spend that money, and what we might be able to expect from such a roster in 2011.
Oh, and one more thing:
“THE DOLANS ARE CHEAP AND SHOOD SELLZ THE TEAM NOW!!!!”
Yep. Still doesn’t make me feel any better.
13 Comments
Looking forward to this Jon…I hope you find some way in this series to get me even remotely excited about this team!
Cliff Lee? 🙂
I can tell you what they do right now. Sign a few washed up 38 yo vets and a guy coming off a major injury to use as trade bair later in the year. No way in hell this team spends $16m this offseason with the attendance numbers so low.
I am looking forward as well. My beef isn’t with the Dolans…the way the team was able to run under Hart and Jacobs was an unsustainable business model, and that was in good times.
My problem is with the talent evaluation side of things, and the fact that certain front office types seem to get a pass continually because “they dont have the resources”…using money as an excuse to jusitfy a poor track record of identifying talent, is just as lame as using money as an excuse for having a poor track record on the field. Neither works for me.
Sadly, I dont think things will change much, with all the lateral shifting going on down at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. New faces, new places, same company line. I hope not. I hope Antonetti and Mirabelli et al somehow turn around their abhorrent draft record.
Tha’s really the only way to be competitive. Go with the Tampa model. I will be interested to see how things go for them after Crawford and others flee this offseason. Will they be able to repeat their earlier drafting success?
Great post. I doubt they spend anywhere near the $11-$16 unless the extend some guys and give them decent raises in the early part of their deals.
Really we need a 3B and another starter. Assuming the 3B is a stop-gap for Chiz (and please god not a Delucci that gets penciled in everyday no matter what) the starter will be the only real bank buster.
DOLANZ NOT CHEEP, THER PUR. BIIIIG DIF. CANT FIX PUR.
@4 — I agree. They spend money, but they either spend it on the wrong people or the people they spend it on stop performing.
That being said, without a cap, the MLB has ceased being interesting to me. The MLB organization would be thrilled if it was BOS vs NYY for the ALCS every single year.
Great stuff Jon, as always. I’d be in favor of signing a starting pitcher and letting the current minor-leaguers battle for the remaining spots if there is no more money left. We definitely need a front-line starter though.
But I agree with everyone else… I don’t think there’s going to be much money available for free agents considering our craptastic attendance this season. With that said, this town is reasonably fickle as to which sport they give their money to, so if the team starts winning, the fans should follow. Unlike Tampa residents who won’t go see the Rays even when they’re in the playoffs.
Family Dollar here we come again!
PAY CHOO.
Choo had a meet with some his fan in here. Here is what he wrote in his memo: Quote” There was a story about transfer lately on newspaper. Yes.I met a reporter in L.A who asked me that time which team do you want to play? So I just said I want to play at winning team. That is my consistent answer whenever somebody asked during my career. I met twice with Antonetti after season and said I want to contribute to team’s winning for next year. If I had a mind to transfer, is it possible to talk to Antonetti like that? It’s a false translation of What I mean.Quote” He also said during his fan meeting in here that he want to be a player to be remembered among fans not in tha hall of fame. Here is picture
I hear Westbrook is available and he should fit into about half of that preset budget.
we need a stopgap 3B that we can trade midseason when the Chis is ready. Russell Branyan anyone? (yes, I know this makes no sense whatsoever, but it’s funny. at least to me)
other than that, I hope we get another post on MLB FA closer to November. right now I’m too busy cheering against NYY and Philly to worry about it 🙂