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Super Bowl XLII, Proposition Bets

Carrying on with the tradition of The GAMBLOG, I thought it would be a great idea to touch on the proposition bets that infiltrate Super Bowl weekend. You see, with only one game on the docket, there is not very much action to throw money on – so if we add a few elements to the game (and in this case, a few elements outside of the actual game itself), it makes things a bit more interesting for those without particular rooting interest. Or in some cases, those that simply need to bet on something.

There are entirely too many bets to mention in this post, so if you need to see them all, head over to Bodoglife.com. I’ll only touch on the ones that I feel give us some decent odds for success. And by “decent,” I mean “Oh, what the heck – its only money.”

If you are a legal type, check out the disclaimer in the post below. Otherwise, get your wager tickets ready – the line is going to be a long one. NEXT!

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We’ll start this puppy off somewhat chronologically. Last year, some people made a big deal regarding the fact that we could bet on how long it would take Billy Joel to get through the National Anthem. The final line was one minute and 44 seconds, and those that took under were handsomely rewarded. This year, we can thank Mr. Joel for moving the line a bit for this year’s singer, Jordin Sparks.

How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National Anthem?

Over 1m42s (-120)
Under 1m42s (-110)

I have a non-sexist premonition that it seems to take female R&B artists an unusual amount of time to get through this nation’s Anthem. Using a recent NBA game in which it took Miss Sparks one minute and 53 seconds to get through the glorious song, I think that this bet may be the biggest “gimme” of them all. Take the “over” and don’t look back. Now that you’re already playing with house money, it starts to get interesting. You can let your winnings roll on the coin toss (each side -103), or choose to play some actual odds.

Team Props:

Total Touchdowns Scored In The Game: 6

Over (-135)
Under (+105)

Two teams that have gotten to where they are based on offense. Warm weather in Arizona. Tom Brady. Randy Moss. A high-scoring take in GAMBLOG Part I. Take the slight hit on the juice and go with the “over.”

Team To Score First In The Game

New York Giants (+135)
New England Patriots (-165)

Now, this one is a bit tricky. This is more of a play on the odds of “The Team That Scores First Wins The Game” prop bet. Betting “yes” sets you back a few bucks, as it is currently set at (-240). Obviously, the line-setters think that New England is going to win this game, as they’re at (-450) with a spread of 11.5. So, with simple math – or just plain guessing – I’m willing to say that if it would cost me $450 to win $100 straight up. And that it would cost me $240 to win $100 on a “yes,” why not just pay $165 on this one? Go with New England, people. (Note: A decent hedge would be to take New England here and the “no,” which is paying +190)

Team To Commit Most Turnovers In The Game:

New York Giants (-300)
New England Patriots (+200)

I realize that New England is supposed to win this game. I realize that they’re the better team, with the better coach and the better players. I get that. What I do not get is the shear ridiculousness of these odds. The linesmen appear to believe that New York is just incompetent – or maybe just Eli Manning. While I think that there is easily a better chance that it is New York with more turnovers, I’m going with the 2-to-1 payout on the chance that Eli keeps the interceptions down, and maybe – just maybe – Dreamboat tosses a few lofty ones across the middle. Give me New England.

Total Quarterback Sacks Recorded In The Game, Both Teams: 4

Over (-105)
Under (-125)

It may just be me, but four seems pretty low to have the “under” be the favorite. Plus, you have to couple this with the (very slim) chance that Eli Manning gets knocked out of the game and the G-men are forced to use the near-300 lb. Jared Lorenzen under center. That alone would give you four sacks. I think if you combine the pass attempts in this one with some of the best defensive linemen in the game, you have to go with the over. And near even money at that.

Will A Special Teams Or Defensive Touchdown Be Scored?

Yes (+150)
No (-180)

I do not have the time nor the patience to go back and see how often this does or does not happen. What I do know is that neither of these teams are strangers to having non-offensive players in the end zone. Whether it is Wes Welker returning a punt or a defensive back going for a pick-six, money is on your side with this one. Go with the “yes” and $50 more on top of your $100.

Player Props:

Eli Manning’s Longest Completion: 35.5 yards

Over/Under (-115)

With Plaxico Burress on this team, and the good chance for some catch-up ball, how can you turn down the even odds on this one? Even the fiancee agrees with this one. Over, over, over.

Ahmad Bradshaw’s Longest Run From Scrimmage: 11.5 yards

Over/Under (-115)

First, the lines have Brandon Jacobs’ longest run from scrimmage at 12.5 yards. I know that Jacobs will have more carries, but since when is he the long distance threat? I’ll take the speedy guy for less yards, at a better payout. Break me off a long one, Ahmad. Over.

Antonio Pierce Total Tackles (solo+assist): 6

Over/Under (-115)

Are you catching a pattern here? The middle linebacker of the team that should have their defense on the field more? Unless he gets hurt, there is no excuse whatsoever to not be in on at least six plays. For instance, Michael Strahan’s line is at 4.5 and he’s a defensive end! Welker across the middle, Faulk in the flat, or Maroney up the gut. You name it, Pierce should be in there. Waaaay over.

Most Receiving Yards: Smith vs. Stallworth

Steve Smith +10.5 (-110)
Daunte Stallworth -10.5 (-120)

The over/under for Smith’s total yards is 31.5. The over/under for Stallworth’s is 45.5. To me, this looks like a 14-yard difference. In fact, the linesmen even have Ben Watson as a favorite over Smith in terms of total yards (by six). While you have to pay a bit more for the win, I think Stallworth should easily top Smith’s numbers – even without the over/unders telling me so. Take Stallworth at (-120).

I think that should about do it. Again, there are countless wagers that I did not mention – and some which are pretty intriguing when you crunch the numbers. Good luck out there, and here’s to a successful weekend. Until then…