Game Preview: Blue Jackets vs. Thrashers (Game #12)

Columbus Blue Jackets (7-4-0, 14pts) vs.
Atlanta Thrashers (6-4-2, 14pts)
Philips Arena, Atlanta, GA
Thursday, November 4, 2010
7:00 PM EDT
TV: FSNOH / Radio: WBNS 97.1 FM

(Dispatch Preview / SportsDirect Preview)

The Jackets most definitely bounced back on Tuesday, playing arguably their best and most complete game of the season in shutting out Montreal. Their reward? Travelling to Atlanta, where the Thrashers are 3-0-1 in their last four, and are scoring at will (17 goals in those four games). This will be a test for the Jackets’ defense, which has been stellar when they win, and non-existent when they lose. Mathieu Garon, fresh off the shut-out, will get the start again. The silver lining? The Thrashers’ defense hasn’t been very good, as in that same four-game span they’ve allowed 14 goals.

Projected Lineups
Columbus Blue Jackets:

Atlanta Thrashers:

Team Rankings
Scoring:
CBJ – 2.36 gpg (t28th NHL)
ATL – 3.25 gpg (3rd NHL)

Defense:
CBJ – 2.64 gapg (t14th NHL)
ATL – 3.50 gapg (t27th NHL)

Power Play:
CBJ – 13.0% (23rd NHL)
ATL – 22.8% (7th NHL)

Penalty Kill:
CBJ – 84.3% (15th NHL)
ATL – 80.9% (20th NHL)

Season Matchups
This is the only matchup of the season. Columbus finished 2-0-0 vs. Atlanta last season.

1. 11/04/10 – Columbus @ Atlanta – 7:00 PM EDT

Game Notes
The Jackets have had three ugly, ugly losses on the season, but each time have bounced back in their next few contests. They won two in a row after losing their Nationwide opener to Chicago; they won three in a row after the ugly loss to the Flames; and after getting smoked by the Avalanche over the weekend, they bounced back on Tuesday for a smothering shutout of a good Montreal club. Can they follow the trend and follow up this last loss with a multiple-game winning streak? Well, one thing will be exactly the same: the lineup has no changes. That means more Nikita Filatov on the second scoring line, the same three D-pairs, and Mathieu Garon still in goal.

Atlanta’s a tough team to get a read on. They can score, but they can’t keep anyone from scoring on them. The Jackets have struggled to score, but have played pretty solid defense overall: if you throw out the three “ugly” losses, they’re surrendered only 12 goals in the other eight games (1.50 gapg). Obviously, it’s not that simple; you can’t throw those games out. I write that, however, to prove a point: when the Jackets play defense, they play DEFENSE. And when they do, they’re 7-1. In other words, while the lack of scoring can be troubling, the defense has been pretty good, and it’s how you win consistently.

In roster world, the Thrashers made some moves in the off-season to get more playoff experience on their roster, and went right to the top: they grabbed up four members of the Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks: Andrew Ladd, Ben Eager up front, and Dustin Byfuglien and Ben Sobol on the blue line. Thrashers’ defenseman Ron Hainsey also played a few years for the Jackets before being terribly overpaid by Atlanta. Finally, this game also marks the first game against Columbus for winger Fredrik Modin. No word on whether he will  immediately move to the Injured Reserve list upon seeing a CBJ sweater.

Much like the Jackets, it’s hard to argue with the early season results in the standings, but there are some warts on this team that need to be addressed. They’re winning and scoring on special teams, but they’re giving up a bunch of goals and not paying well 5-on-5. Of the 39 goals they’ve scored in 12 games, 13 of them have been PP goals (28.2%). Of the 42 goals they’ve allowed, nine have been when they’re down a skater. So, if you’re scoring at home, there are two notes: they’ve scored fewer goals than they’ve given up (39 vs. 42), and at 5-on-5, they’re even worse (25 vs. 33, as they scored a short-handed goal as well). So, what does all of this mean?

STAY OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX.

The Jackets’ special teams have been improving of late, and the PK has been better over a longer stretch. Over their last nine games, they’re 33-for-37 on the PK (89.2%). But even with that stat, knowing what we know above, the key to tonight’s game is to stay at 5-on-5, as Atlanta’s PP is solid and continues to be what’s driving them to success. Conversely, the CBJ Power Play hasn’t been good for most of the year—over that same last-nine-games stretch, they’ve scored just four PP goals in 35 chances (11.4%)—but in the last five games it’s shown some signs of life: 4-for-20 (20%). Derick Brassard has been the biggest boost on the PP, scoring three of those four goals.

Garon is getting his second consecutive start tonight—and fourth of the season—coming off of the 29-save shutout on Tuesday night. Another big boost on defense was the team’s willingness to block shots: they blocked an additional 24 shots against the Habs to take some of the pressure off of Garon. Atlanta is only averaging 27.8 shots per game (good for just 27th best in the NHL), so if the Jackets’ defense can again step up and block some of those opportunities, it will again make Garon’s job easier. For the season, the Jackets allow just 29.9 shots per game (16th).

Conversely, the Thrashers are allowing 37.3 shots per game on defense, which is the second-worst in the NHL. Columbus is 21st in the league at generating shots at 29.3 per game, so they’ll need to make an effort tonight to get shots on net. There’s an encouraging trend, though: in their last five games (4-1-0), they’re getting almost 33 shots per game on goal, and have topped 40 shots twice. This is good, and needs to continue tonight.

Along those lines, a big, noticeable difference on Monday night was the presence of the Jackets’ top scoring line. Being on the road tonight, Atlanta gets the chance to better match-up with this line, but it didn’t matter who was out there for Montreal on Tuesday. The Jackets’ top line was a force, scoring an even strength as well as a Power Play goal. Rick Nash snapped a goal-less streak of five games, and he’s the kind of player that can score in bunches when he gets going and gets his confidence up. Speaking of, Derick Brassard scored again on Tuesday, his fourth goal in five games. As I Tweeted during the game, you DO NOT want to feed the Brassard if you’re Atlanta: he’s a guy playing with a ton of confidence right now, and when pucks are going in for him his confidence gets higher and higher and he plays better and better. Jake Voracek hasn’t yet scored a goal on the young season, but he’s looking better and better the longer these three have played together; his two assists on Tuesday were solid, including the gorgeous individual effort on the PP to set up Brassard for the tap-in goal. If these guys can keep going and keep getting better, it would give Columbus something they have’t had in, well, ever really: a consistent threat line that the opponent must always account for.

So, what have we learned? Stay out of the box. Get shots on goal, and hope the top line keeps building their confidence and performance. Keep playing solid, responsible defense. The rest should take care of itself. Columbus handled Atlanta twice in the pre-season, but as we know, that’s just the pre-season. This time it counts for real!

Next Game For The Jackets
Saturday, November 6, 2010
7:00 PM EDT
Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets