Man, That Was Fun
November 8, 2010The Colt Report: Week Three
November 8, 2010Before we start printing playoff tickets, let’s just bask in the glow of the Browns’ 34-14 beat-down of the Patriots yesterday, and then let’s slowwww dowwwnnnn on the prognostication. I say this because, while (as I’m about to show you) the Browns’ schedule is about to let up quite a bit, while we can look ahead at the schedule, we can’t start chalking up wins for games six weeks from now. So, guy-who-called-in-to-WTAM-on-my-way-home-and-predicted-a-10-6-finish, perhaps you might want to sleep on that for just a bit. This team is still in the “let’s look for improvement game-to-game” phase of their development, in my opinion. (So, get your “HYPOCRITE!” cannon ready, as I spend the rest of this post prognosticating.)
But, that’s not to say there’s not some reason for optimism. Back at the beginning of September, we here at WFNY had a Roundtable discussion about the Vegas line of 5.5 wins as the over/under mark. A lot of the guys took the over, but with humongous caveats attached to it.
For me, personally, there wasn’t a lot of optimism as to the likelihood of taking the over, and I set my expectations fairly low:
I would love to take the over, but the schedule looks very daunting. I think the first two weeks are winnable games, but a gauntlet of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Pittsburgh (with Big Ben), New Orleans, New England, and the Jets could have the Browns staring at 2-7 or even 1-8.
Well, the good news is that through nine games they will be at least 3-6, and possibly 4-5 if they can keep this momentum going against the Jets on Sunday. But, let’s keep moving:
The last three weeks of the season are the second leg of the division battles, but there are also some winnable games after that tough stretch. So, I’d love to take the over, but I’m having trouble finding six wins on the schedule right now. I guess at this point I’d settle for improvement, which would be 4-12 or 5-11 with a slew of competitive games as opposed to a bunch of 20-point losses (seriously, go back and look at the first nine games last year; average score: Opponents 25, Browns 8.7). If they can trim that margin and actually look like an NFL team most weeks, I’ll consider it improvement.
Clearly, the last part has come to fruition, and I couldn’t be happier about it. I’ve been a total fence-sitter on Eric Mangini’s tenure with the Browns: you may recall that I didn’t advocate firing him last year under the “you have to give a guy two years” argument, but also wouldn’t have thrown my hands up if new president Mike Holmgren had showed Mangini the door in January, either. You could argue that, had the Browns been able to close in a few games (TB, KC, Baltimore, Atlanta), they could be 7-1. Not likely, but you could make the argument (I mean, I think I just did, sorta). So, improvement? CHECK.
But, here’s the most important thing: the “toughest” part of the schedule is almost over. Consider that, after the Jets (6-2) this coming Sunday, the schedule for the following five weeks looks like:
November 21 – @Jacksonville (4-4)
November 28 – vs. Carolina (1-7)
December 5 – @Miami (4-4)
December 12 – @Buffalo (0-8)
December 19 – @Cincinnati (2-5)
Jets game aside, can the Browns win three of those games? Four? Five?? One would certainly think they could win three, and you could make a solid case before each game for the Browns being able to win any and all of them, if they can keep playing the way they’ve been playing these past two games. Of course, you can’t factor in injuries, weather, the fact that four of them are on the road, or DA somehow showing up in Buffalo and completing only two passes. OK, scratch that last one.
So, let’s break it down a bit. It’s hard to see a scenario in which Rex Ryan and the Jets come to Cleveland and aren’t ready to play. Add in the Braylon circus, and the Browns all of a sudden playing with a gigantic chip on their shoulder, and this game has the makings of a very good one if the Browns continue to execute. Given what we’ve seen from the Browns in the past two games combined with the Jets’ last two games (a stinker shut-out loss to Green Bay, and a mad dash complete with some Les-Miles-style clock management from Detroit to sneak into OT and win against the Lions), anything is certainly possible.
Then what?
@Jacksonville? The Browns have won their last two against a very mediocre Jags team. It’s a road game, and the Browns won’t have the advantage of home field chilliness that sucked the life out of the Jags players last season. Even still, the Jags are lousy passing (the Browns’ defensive weakness), good at running (the Browns’ strength on defense), and HORRIBLE on defense: 28th vs. the pass and 22nd vs. the run. So, really: is there anything about this Jags team that makes you think the Browns don’t have a better-than-average chance of winning that game?
vs. Carolina? They look awful. Just, awful. They’ve scored 88 points in eight games (11.0 ppg), and have allowed 184 points (23.0). Their offense is garbage: last in the league in passing, and 26th in rushing. They’re 25th in rushing defense, allowing almost 125 yards per game. Tell me a scenario in which this current Browns team—playing at home—isn’t the favorite in this game.
@Miami? The Dolphins are a strange team. They’re 4-1 on the road, and 0-3 at home. This game is in Florida. They’re middle-of-the-road on both offense and defense. They’ve beaten Green Bay on the road, should have beaten Pittsburgh at home, and Minnesota and Cincinnati on the road, but struggled to beat a BAD Buffalo team, got smoked back-to-back at home by both the Jets and Patriots, and lost fairly convincingly to Baltimore. The point? Other than Green Bay and what should have been a win against the Steelers, it’s hard to point to a game against a good team in which the Dolphins looked “good”. Call this one a toss up, most definitely.
@Buffalo? Seriously? Do we even need to discuss this? Keep DA away from this game, and I can’t see a realistic scenario (assuming health) in which the Browns shouldn’t be the favorites.
@Cincinnati? Well, the Browns already beat this team once, and the Bengals are a flaming car wreck right now, though in fairness their passing game is still the strength of their team (and our defensive weakness). But, the Bengals’ defense is trash right now compared to the unit from last season: 18th vs. the pass and 23rd vs. the run. If Peyton Hillis and company are healthy, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Browns can’t run the ball against Cincinnati and keep the Bengals’ passing game on the sidelines. This one should be in the toss-up category, but I can make a solid argument for the Browns being favored in this game.
So, what does all of this mean? The next six games break out like this: The Browns are probably favored in two or three of those games (Jags? Carolina, Buffalo), two or three are toss-ups (Jags? Dolphins, Cincy), and one is tough (Jets). I see at least four wins there, which puts the Browns squarely at seven before factoring in all of the toss-ups.
The point, here, is that after this coming week, the schedule sets up for five winnable games in a row for the Browns. I’m not saying they’ll “definitely” get to .500 or anything like that, but what I am saying is that the sixth win to get over the 5.5 over/under bar is suddenly looking pretty reachable, and in breaking down the schedule a .500 finish is certainly something that could be legitimately argued for.
And, even though they’re still only halfway through 2010, all of a sudden, the Browns look like a potential 2011 playoff team if things keep building the way they have over the last 12 games.
Yep, I just said it.
26 Comments
Kool Aid Alert!
All kidding aside, I think we have a very good shot of finishing the season with a winning record. An outside shot at a Wild Card if we really turn the jets on and win out. Is it possible? Well, not realistically. But it’s fun to just have the discussion for once.
I just posted something of the sort, in a lot shorter version in the comments on the last article. 1 game at a time, but I can definitely see at least an 8-8 record in the end. The Jets are vulnerable after playing weak for 2 straight weeks. They should have lost in Det. If the browns jump up early like in NO and NE they have a good chance to “steal” another one. After that, as you say, it could be realistically 4-1 in the next 5 games heading into the final 2 home games against Baltimore and Pitt, respectively. Tell me they shouldnt have beaten the ravens in Balt. Give me that game home and a potential wild card spot, then its a 9-6 team going up against the Steelers.
As for the record so far, I think Atl, and the Steelers games were the 2 the browns lost. The other 4 losses were all winnable games that if you replay now the browns would know how to win.
Why isn’t a wild card spot realistic?
This team is only 2 wins behind their closest wild card competition. 5 teams currently have 5 wins (Pitt, Indy, KC, Tenn, Oak), and there are 8 games left on the schedule. Parody has reigned supreme this year in the AFC, so there’s no reason to think 9 or 10 wins automatically puts you out of contention.
I too, want to keep my head on straight, but if we’re being “realistic,” the Browns are still in it until further notice.
Parody has reigned supreme…
I think you meant “parity” but this is also quite humorous to me.
🙂
Heck, if the Vikings are in it the Browns are in it. Jus’ sayin…
Vikings are in a far, far weaker conference, though.
The big fear is we come out like 2007 and end up with a strong record and then can’t build going into 2008. I had no hopes for the Browns in 2007 and was floored by their play. 2008 held high hopes but those were quickly dashed. 2010 I was hoping for 6 or 7 wins and I think that remains the reasonable goal.
obviously loving this team right now, but I think the KC and TB games could come back and hurt us in the end. In the AFC this year, like what happened to us in 2007, I think a 10 win team misses the playoffs through tiebreakers. We already would lose it to KC, so we have to keep winning conference games.
Another factor: which teams will be dialing it in by the time we play them? How many guys on, let’s say, a 4-7 Miami team will want to try to tackle Hillis?
Also, while the Bills are bad, I wouldn’t overlook them. They’ve been a better team since Fitzgerald took the reins at QB. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still bad. I just wouldn’t overlook them, especially with that Buffalo weather.
First and foremost, let me say that Mangini has this team playing very well. I was quite critical of Mangini early in the season (for good reason, I think), but I must admit that this team has made progress. Mangini has finally accomplished that which was his focus: smart football.
That brings me to my second point. Right now, we are able to win when the other team commits mistakes (forced or unforced is debatable – we certainly didn’t force that game-changing Patriots fumble in the first quarter). In my opinion, we win because we capitalize on mistakes and then control the clock. While Hillis has turned out to be the player that I suspected he could be, I still have no reason to believe that we are strong enough to mount a comeback when we fall behind. This fact makes it difficult to project wins when we basically rely on another team’s mistakes.
While we are technically still in the race for a wildcard birth, I’m hoping for 7-9 or 8-8 given the progress that has been made.
I think the key this week is that Rex can’t throw anything in the face of Colt that he hasn’t seen in the last three weeks BUT Rob will be able to to Sanchez. With the way the team is playing we SHOULD win those five games.
Now here’s another key, who do the Ravens and Steelers play? Baltimore still has Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Houston, and New Orleans along with another game against Pittsburgh and the Browns. Pittsburgh still has New England, Oakland and the Jets along with Baltimore and ourselves.
Now we played our tough part, now they get to. If we handle our business as we should those last three weeks could very well have playoff implications once again. BELIEVELAND LIVES.
Everything is contingent on Peyton Hillis being healthy. I don’t recall there being a player on the Browns in the past 10 years who was so indispensable. Even Cribbs in the last 2 years wasn’t as important to the success of the team. Run, Peyton, run.
@9 – I agree don’t sleep on them but their strength right now is passing…as we head into December that’s going to get exceedingly hard for that team and the run game has look totally inept to this point. Kind of hoping for bad weather in that match-up.
@13 – True. I just hear a lot of people saying the same things about the Bills that they were saying about us last season.
Any given sunday and all that…
I fully believe the browns will beat the panthers. However I live in carolina and consider myself a panthers fan…the only sport my allegiance leaves the state of ohio. One must consider that prior to last game against the saints, the panthers had a top 5 defense. They have good linebackers that hillis will have a hard time murdering and have ha injuries. At this moment deangelo williams, jonathan stewart, and jeff otah are hurt…effectively ending our running game. If we have otah and our backs healthy it COULD be a game. That said we have literally no qb and look awful right now. As it stands I think we are easily the worst…worse than buffalo. But if we get healthy we could compete.
I guess my point is that its hard to prognosticate bc outside fans don’t know what’s going on within another organization. That said I think the browns should take 4 of those games,including the Carolina game
Don’t know if WFNY shared this link to a very nice write up about Mangini in Sunday’s NY Times, focusing on principles he feeled he compromised with the Jets. A good read.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/sports/football/07mangini.html?_r=3&adxnnl=1&ref=sports&adxnnlx=1289160330-qN6o0ytqBQ3bryiW+qahJw
Admits he initially imitated the Parcells/Belichik snarl because he hadn’t yet developed his own style, and that Holmgren has helped him with practice schedules and the like.
“feeled”? Did I write that?
Agreed, JW. Without Hillis, these games would probably have a very different turnout. I realize that the team overall is playing well, but I’m not sure what our offense would be able to generate without Hillis blowing everyone up and bailing us out.
My guess is those betting the over are going to make some money.
But, I don’t see the Browns making the playoffs and I’m perfectly fine with that. Just stay consistently competitive and improve week-to-week.
And beat the Ravens and Steelers, please.
I’d be happy for the Browns to be in the 15th pick area of the draft. If McCoy keeps playing well, it sure would be nice to be able to use that pick on a legitimate offensive or defensive play maker.
sam, that’s a fair point, especially when one considers the 2002 game in Cleveland in which the 6-5 (and playoff bound) Browns lost 13-6 at home to the 3-8 (and coming off an 8-game losing streak while being led by Rodney Peete and Dee Brown at RB) Panthers.
Ugh, remembering (and looking up) that game just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.
every game is winnable, every game is loseable.
however, one would think, if we could go 3-5 against the tough schedule we have had so far, then we should at least be able to go 4-4 against the remaining schedule that is lighter and some of which will be played in elements that favor our strengths (running the ball and stopping the run).
that would mean 7-9, much improved, and lots of confidence going into next year (if there is a next year)
@ Harv
It feeled like you wrote that, and frankly, it feeled right at the time.
@Cbus Kevin
Aren’t the Browns 3 back from the wild card if the Steelers take care of the Bengals tonight? That would put NE and BAL in the wild card and the Jets, Steelers, Titans/Colts and Chiefs leading the division.
We have a long way to go unless the Jets, Steelers, Ravens or Pats just start falling apart. That Jets game is a little bigger now then it was a couple weeks ago.
The good thing is the browns play the jets, steelers and ravens still. This is a big game this weekend if the browns were to eventually end up in the wild card race. Right now, they just need to concentrate on this and not bigger implications.
I actually think Buffalo could pose a problem. Better hope they get that first win before they play us. As long as they have one win, they have nothing to play for.
They’ve pushed 3 or 4 teams to the wire and they’ll keep playing hard until they officially will not go down in history with the 0-16 Lions.
Jets, Ravens, and Steelers games are HUGE if we want to sneak in. I dont think its happening. At least we got the tiebreaker with the Pats though.
When the over/unders came out in Vegas, I was sure the Browns would cover the 5.5 threshold. Sure, there were some times of doubt, but I still never backed off of it, even after the 0-3 start. Especially not after the 0-3 start, because I knew how close the Browns were to being 3-0. Now, I’m back to being fully confident the Browns will reach 6 wins.
As far as ending 8-8 though, we still haven’t yet figured in the inevitable bad games that Colt McCoy is bound to have. Such is the life of a rookie NFL QB.