While We’re Waiting… Trade Exceptions, Vizquel’s Hall of Fame Odds, 2011 Big Ten
January 9, 2011Former Indians Alomar, Blyleven Enter MLB Hall of Fame
January 9, 2011This is the first of a two-part segment on the 2011 NFL Draft: This first edition analyzes the current draft forecast and matches up general options at the No. 6 pick to the current Browns roster. The next article will analyze the stories of the individual players likely to be available.
Just like last year, it is now time to start analyzing the top prospects available for the Cleveland Browns in the upcoming NFL Draft. The franchise is in a different position than 12 months ago, as despite the success of quarterback Colt McCoy and running back Peyton Hillis, the team finished with another 5-11 record and is now hunting for a new head coach.
This April, the Browns will look to add more pieces to compliment star rookies McCoy, cornerback Joe Haden and safety T.J. Ward. An improved defense shined throughout 2010, but more playmakers are necessary on both sides of the ball to take the next step. Stay tuned below the jump for a look at where things stand right now.
Getting (Not So) Lucky
Ultimately, one of the biggest changes in the 2011 NFL Draft scene arrived when Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck announced that he will be remaining in school. Foregoing an opportunity to be the top pick in the draft much like Matt Leinart before him, Luck changed the spectrum of the entire first half of the first round.
For the Carolina Panthers and other top teams searching for a quarterback, well, you might just be over-reaching within those first 10 picks. Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet, Washington’s Jake Locker and Auburn’s Cam Newton don’t have the same upside, poise, pocket presence and NFL-readiness as Luck, and thus it could lead to some trades to move down to find those franchise stars.
Either way, it actually hurts the Browns chances at landing their top chance at the sixth position in the first round. With the Panthers and potentially other teams now left suddenly scrambling, all of the other top players now are ripe for the picking for teams that might also have been in the market for Luck. Some draft sites are even projecting a wide receiver to potentially be the first pick in the draft, but ultimately, no one really knows what Carolina might do, let alone the next four teams before Cleveland.
The Options
From that storyline, it seems appropriate to begin analyzing the top first round prospects for this year’s draft. With Luck off the board, the majority of options boil down to defensive line, cornerback or wide receiver. While the Browns will certainly have other holes to fill throughout the offseason, but these are the clear strengths of this year’s first round.
Bolstering the defensive line, the most densely populated of these three areas in the draft, would continue to boost one of the strong points already for Cleveland. Ahytba Rubin had another impressive year despite the back-and-forth injuries to Shaun Rogers, the rush defense was much improved, and one more playmaker could be the difference for an elite defensive unit overall.
Meanwhile, a cornerback could be an intriguing alternative option to reach that goal. Joe Haden didn’t start until Eric Wright’s injury in Week 11, but he still managed to lead the team in passes defended and interceptions. That speaks volumes to Wright’s regression this season, and the need for another shutdown corner in the secondary. This would be adding to the team’s primary defensive weakness with the means available at this selection.
Finally, there is no doubt that McCoy requires additional offensive weapons in the passing game. Ben Watson was his usual target all season, and the combination of Mohammed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie and Josh Cribbs just won’t cut it for very long. The first round options here are slightly more limited than the previous two positions, so this could be difficult to fill with this pick too.
Here is the current ESPN.com/Scouts, Inc. Big Board:
1. QB Andrew Luck*, Stanford, 3,338 pass (70.7%), 32 TD/8 INT, 453 rush and 3 TD’s
2. DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson, 67 tackles, 16 sacks and one INT
3. DT Nick Fairley, Auburn, 55 tackles, 11 sacks and one INT
4. CB Patrick Peterson, LSU, 42 tackles and four INT’s
5. WR A.J. Green, Georgia, 57 catch, 848 rec and 9 TD’s (in 9 games)
6. DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina, 52 tackles and 11 sacks (from 2009)
7. CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, 59 tackles and one sack
8. DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama, 33 tackles and five sacks (in 11 games)
9. DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, 52 tackles and four sacks
10. DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State, 45 tackles and six sacks (in 11 games)
17. WR Julio Jones, Alabama, 78 catch, 1,133 rec and 7 TD’s
25. WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State, 111 catch, 1,782 rec and 20 TD’s
* Luck announced that he will be returning to Stanford next season.
Mock Drafts Du Jour
Dareus – “The Browns would love to land a top-tier weapon for the impressive Colt McCoy like A.J. Green. But if Green isn’t available, Cleveland will almost certainly beef up its front seven. The worst player on Cleveland’s stop unit is defensive end Brian Schaefering. He has to be upgraded.” [WalterFootball.com]
Amukamara – “The Browns get a great cover corner with this pick. They have struggled defensively over the last couple years especially by giving up big plays. Amukamara is a shut down corner and should start right away as a rookie.” [NewNFLDraft.com]
Amukamara – “Not a huge need, but put this guy opposite youngster Joe Haden and the Browns secondary becomes one of the best young group in the NFL.” [DraftSeason.com]
Blackmon – “Blackmon, a redshirt sophomore, led the country in receiving in 2010. If he declares for the 2011 draft, his mixture of his great hands, great route-running, and great production should cause him to jump off the board quickly.” [NFL Fanhouse]
Fairley or Green – [CBSSports.com], Quinn – [MyNFLDraft.com]
(Photo above via Richard Shiro, Associated Press and Rusty Costanza/The Times-Picayune)
29 Comments
i’d rather take a CB here and try to get that kid from Wisconsin, Watt, in the second round.
is there any way we can sign a free agent WR? I’d rather do that then draft a guy in the first round.
DL or CB for me, unless the available WR is a Calvin Johnson type (i.e. elite skills/hands + minimal ego). Does AJ Green fit that profile? If not, I would rather the Browns pass on him.
Really, another corner? I know that group isn’t stellar, but if Patrick Peterson isn’t available, then pass and take some linemen. If AJ Green is available, you have got to take him though. Our receivers suck
Whoever H&H draft, is who I want. If they think we need another corner (see Eric Wright’s season for why), then get a corner. If we could have another guy like Haden out there on the opposite side that would be pretty impressive.
If they want DL help, get it.
We just know at some point a big play WR threat is needed – whether draft or FA.
And the right-side OL is suspect at best.
So many holes to fill…
@brownsfan019 — I wouldn’t mind the first two rounds both being devoted to the front lines. DL in round 1 and OL in round 2 would make me happy.
Building depth through the draft is the way to build a consistent contender. It’s going to take time. Do we have patience?!?
If it was the old Browns drafting the positions to draft of DL or WR would scare me to death based on the horrible track record of past drafts. Other then trading up to draft the injury risked Hardesty I like the first ever draft by Holmgren and Heckert.
WR would be priority #1 for me I am just leary of the diva psyche at that position. DL is a need too but for me only if the Browns go back to the better scheme of 4-3. You put Rubin and Rogers in the middle then either use a speed prototypical DE or the hybrid DE/LB type guy. If the Browns do switch to a 4-3 I’d like to see a stud LB drafted rather then a DL.
**Off-topic but timely do to yesterday’s Seattle Seahawk win (anyone else see that amazing run by Marshawn Lynch?) but I thought the Browns should have traded that draft pick, given how many they currently own) for Lynch. You’d have had Hillis and Lynch as your 1-2 in the backfield. Just me though.
Luckily, we have so many needs that taking just about any of these guys will help. Yea Browns for having so many holes! It makes drafting much easier.
What’s the average track record for early WR picks? I’d much rather go line (either one) or corner with a high pick.
Anyone know if AZ is blowing it up? If so, giving up a LOT for Fitzgerald would actually make a lot of sense.
DL,DL,DL….is all i gotta say! we need a stud DL in the worst way…i wouldnt even think CB with the first pick.My needs are DL,LB,WR,TE,RG/RT..altho i cant argue with saying we need a lil of everything but those are the spots id do first.Unless we sign a free agent for 1 or any of them
While not with the #6 pick (I don’t think), I also LOVE J.J. Watt and would love to snap him up. The thing that scares me about the WR at that level is that it takes them awhile to develop, so I’d rather try to either sign someone (Vince Jackson?), trade (I have to think AZ will try to get Kolb or McNabb, which means they aren’t moving Fitzgerald) for it, and use that pick for a Jamir Miller type.
That said, a friend pointed out that if the Browns had two shutdown CBs that could potentially cover receivers one-on-one, it would open up some other schemes with the front seven – and that’s a tempting proposition, I have to say …
At some point the Browns have to get a big impact receiver. Our receiving corps is a joke; Brian Robiskie actually led the group in touchdowns! With three. Ughh.
Spent the last semester at UGA, and AJ would be a great pick-up if he has the right attitude for the team. One of the best WRs I’ve seen in person. In addition to his freak skills, he isn’t afraid to take a hit. He repeatedly had huge days even when he saw tight coverage with a safety over the top (and a Frosh at the QB position). True break away speed, has improved his route running every year, and probably the best hands in college football.
Cleveland Browns Stats for 2010 NFL regular season
Defense:
6th in total time on field
8th in interceptions
6th in team tackles
9th in touchdowns allowed
11th fewest penalties called against defense
13th in points allowed (if steelers scored 30 instead of 41, we would rank 10th)
14th in passing defense
25th in sacks
27th in rushing yards allowed
18th in passing yards allowed
Offense:
31st in scoring
There are a lot of numbers I just listed but there is one glaring thing that stands out – how bad the offense was compared to the defense. The defense played pretty dang good considering they got no help from the offense the 2nd half of almost every game.
First and foremost, the offensive line needs to be fixed. I don’t care if it is through off-season surgeries, free agency, or the draft.
The next important area is to address a quality back to help sub Hillis. He cannot continue to run the ball as much as he did – he will get injured if he is asked to do that. Hardesty may be that back but his injuries may be too much to overcome. Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams are going to be free agents but might be asking too much. If Hillis goes down, the browns are screwed without a quality backup.
Drafting a wide receiver in the first round is a move that should only be made based on who we hire as a coach and what type of offense they want to run. A west coast offense would fit great with the receiver/te core we have right now. You don’t need a burner and with Stucky/Robiskie/Mohammed/E. Moore and Watson, we have some capable receivers – just no studs. If are going to run a power run type offense, we need to find a burner through the draft or FA. It all comes down to the coach and offensive style we will be playing though.
It is crazy to think that the Browns only lost 2 games by more than 10 points. The seahawks lost 9 games by over 15 points this year, according to the TV announcers. If the Browns could have mustered 1 more offensive drive in each of our losses, we would have been 10 – 4, with 2 games going into overtime. We are close to being really good, we just need more depth at O-line and a good offensive coordinator. I have to have faith that Holmgren understands the Browns needs and will do what it takes to address them through free agency or the draft.
forgot to mention that as much fun as it would be to have a stud wr, I don’t think Colt McCoy has the arm to get him the ball deep. Colt has looked terrible at passes 30+ yards down field. He seems to have a sweet spot of 25 yards and shorter. I don’t think more time in the pocket is going to help him out in that department. This would make a west coast/short passing route type offense, a better match for our QB’s strengths and our current wr/te situation. Not to mention having a back like Hillis who can run and catch will fit great into that type of system.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
I think the Browns can go through this off-season without drafting another DB. They did that last year, and the guys they have are good enough (for now). Drafting another corner won’t help their pass defense (enough) – they need a better pass-rush. They need a guy like Harrison/Woodley/Suggs/Ware/Orakpo/Matthews etc. to provide a rush from the OLB position. Having a Ngata or Wilfork would be great, but looking at “needs” alone, they should go with an OLB.
On offense, I don’t like the idea of using the west coast system, mainly because you can’t dink-and-dunk if you get behind (and you will with their current defense). They need a WR that can make an impact *now*, and then possibly draft a guy to mold into a top receiver. Vincent Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald are possiblities, and maybe even Carolina’s Steve Smith if they’re willing to deal him for draft picks in a rebuilding effort. I would look for a possession receiver over a deep threat because I’m not convinced that McCoy can consistently throw the deep ball with accuracy, but anyone would be better than who they have. Also, Mike Bell isn’t a good enough backup, and if they lose Hillis to injury, they’re screwed.
AJ Green hands down, the Browns are hurting bad offensively and a big play wide receiver will open up run game even more. Get the receiver, lest u wish to keep watching the same boring ass offense we have been subjected to the last few years.
I think we have to go WR in the first round. if not, we need to get a difference maker in free agency, and I’m not real sure anyone fits that bill this year that isn’t a diva.
2nd and 3rd rounds, we need to definitely look at JJ Watt (if he’s still there), and Casey Matthews (Clay’s younger son out of Oregon). Watt was a beast all year long for Wisconsin, and Matthews has the pedigree…and we have needs at both of their positions.
I’d love to get another great corner to pair with Haden, but if we do it in the 1st round this year, it will force teams to run the ball right at our defensive line, which scares me.
What are the chances for accruing OL talent at later rounds? Although we have many needs we need to fix that right side via draft. I would shoot for one of the later DTs first round as I think WR is more dependent on what wr can accomplish on the front lines. Anyone have info on later rounds?
Sanzenbacher, duh.
Taking another corner at pick 6 would be crazy. So many times teams have picked up two really talented corners to try for that “complete shutdown,” and how often has it worked? Revis + Cromartie this year? Asomugha + DeAngelo Hall? Ugh. And those were actually Pro Bowl level performers. Pass-rushing LB/DE, WR, and right tackle are significantly higher needs than another corner.
I absolutely love Amukamara.. I take him. Another interesting pick would be Cam Newton. If the Browns hire Morrnhinweg I can see them drafting Cam so he can work with him like he did with McVick.
BPA. I think that is Heckert’s philosophy looking back at old Philly drafts. Need will be factored in probably in later rounds, but especially with the 6th pick they will get the BPA. You just cant miss reaching to fill needs that high.
Drafting a corner would be a luxury pick – yes, the Browns need help in the secondary but using 2 consecutive high first round picks on CBs is like what Millen did with WRs in Detroit. A team doesn’t need two high level corners, and a solid corner could be had in later rounds, or through free agency/trades.
If the Browns stay in 3-4, DL isn’t as big of a need, but if we switch to 4-3 a pass rushing DE would be a great pick because Rubin and Rogers make a pretty good DT duo. A 4-3 team needs a great D-line with a lot of depth and multiple guys who can rush the passer, so we would need to start on that right away.
Taking a corner first is a bad idea. If you’re going with a defensive pick, you go DL. Its really simple. A great cornerback only really gets involved on pass plays. A d-lineman can rush the qb AND stop the run.
I think it might be worth trading up to get Green. The offense flat out stunk last year. Beyond green though, if you take a WR, you’re just reaching.
I also cast my vote for drafting a qb in the middle rounds. Falling in love with qbs that have a good but small sample size has gotten the browns into trouble before.
DL, OL, LB, WR, FS–ideally in that order.
What was wrong with Sheldon Brown this year? I think the Browns should look at Free Agents at some of these positions. Do we really want 3 Rookies or 2nd year players in the secondary, or 3 rookies or slow progressing 3rd years at wideout? Plus a #1 experienced WR might help progress Mass and Robiskie as well as giving Mccoy help via a more dependable target and help smarten his overall game. The same with an experience CB or S with Haden and Ward. I think we need to first look at the free agent pool at WR and DB before looking at any of these rookies.
If available A.J. Green or Julio Jones would be a good move–super talent. If not concentrate on D, and pick up a WR in free agency.
Peterson or Green if available – otherwise, best DLineman on the board.
Next!